Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no.110)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.


Technical Annex

What levels of Covid-19 are indicated by wastewater data?

Table 1 provides population weighted daily averages for normalised wastewater Covid-19 levels in the weeks ending 29th September and 6th October 2022, with no estimate for error. This is given in Million gene copies per person per day. Coverage is given as percentage of inhabitants in each local authority covered by a wastewater Covid‑19 sampling site delivering data during this period.

Table 1: Average Covid-19 wastewater levels (Mgc/p/d) [5].
Local Authority (LA) w/e 29th September w/e 6th October Coverage
Aberdeen City 89 91 99 %
Aberdeenshire 74 59 49 %
Angus 70 52 68 %
Argyll and Bute 59 26 23 %
City of Edinburgh 92 87 98 %
Clackmannanshire 141 46 92 %
Dumfries and Galloway 65 31 10 %
Dundee City 98 54 100 %
East Ayrshire 120 56 72 %
East Dunbartonshire 159 111 99 %
East Lothian 104 72 74 %
East Renfrewshire 36 14 89 %
Falkirk 72 82 96 %
Fife 78 61 84 %
Glasgow City 77 60 98 %
Highland 42 92 44 %
Inverclyde 44 52 98 %
Midlothian 99 84 88 %
Moray 60 50 70 %
Na h-Eileanan Siar 14 12 21 %
North Ayrshire 70 41 92 %
North Lanarkshire 94 60 92 %
Orkney Islands 14 0 %
Perth and Kinross 24 45 %
Renfrewshire 51 38 97 %
Scottish Borders 90 81 34 %
Shetland Islands 4 9 29 %
South Ayrshire 106 57 88 %
South Lanarkshire 90 37 85 %
Stirling 113 42 63 %
West Dunbartonshire 83 61 98 %
West Lothian 53 56 84 %

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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