Scottish Government

BESAC (03)1 - IMPLICATIONS OF LOCAL HOUSING STRATEGIES FOR HOUSING STATISTICS

Introduction

1. In drawing up and monitoring Local Housing Strategies (LHS) local authorities will be using and developing a wide range of information on the operation of the housing system in their area. This information will come from both nationally managed statistical data collections and analyses - including the neighbourhood statistics developments - and from locally assembled data; from administrative sources and surveys.

2. The purpose of this paper is primarily to discuss whether there may be opportunities to develop national statistical data collections from the types of information which local authorities will assemble for the assessments which will underpin LHS, or the subsequent monitoring of progress in achieving the outcomes. However it is also useful to consider the implications of LHS for the official statistics currently compiled by the Scottish Executive.

3. The paper sets out a brief background to Local Housing Strategies and the sorts of statistical information which will be used to assess needs and priorities and monitor outcomes. Members of BESAC are invited to comment on:-

Background

4. The Housing(Scotland) Act 2001 requires local authorities to undertake a comprehensive assessment of housing needs and conditions in their areas and to produce strategies to tackle the housing problems identified in this assessment. The web based guidance for councils which supports the development of LHS sets out the objectives of LHS, key national priorities and a detailed implementation timetable. The purpose of the LHS is to map out a course between the assessment of the current operation of the housing system and how the authority, with partners, wants the housing system to operate in 5 years time.

5. All councils will by now have started to develop LHS and some will be well down the road. A number of councils completed pilots in 2001/02. A number will deliver their strategy in Autumn 2003 while all will be completed by April 2004. While there is no set template for the analysis to support LHS, from the pilots and from the supporting material developed by Communities Scotland [Housing Market Context Statements; detailed summaries of house prices derived by LVIU from Registers of Scotland data; and detailed information on sales of council houses from 1990], it is clear that LHS assessments, and outcome monitoring will tend to cover a range of common themes: but with a very definite local focus.

Statistical information needed/ available

6. Table 1 lists the types of information which councils will use in drawing up LHS, the role of the information in LHS and the types of geography for which the information might be assembled/ used. The types of information (column 1) are grouped mainly by key headings in the 'Housing Market Context Statements' provided by Communities Scotland (CS).

7. Table 2 attempts to identify the sources of information which might be used by councils in drawing up the assessments which will underpin LHS, and which might be used to monitor progress in achieving the outcomes. Some of the datasets - such as the Census - are relevant only for assessment of the current position while others - such as continuous surveys, and regular statistical data gathering are also relevant for monitoring. Those relevant for monitoring are identified under 'Y' in the Monitoring column.

Possible gaps and links to national sources

8. The main points appear to be:-

Demographic trends:

• Scottish Executive updated 2002 based household projections - which will probably be produced in late 2003/ early 2004, following GRO(S) 2002 based popn projections to be produced in November - will be too late for this phase of LHS. Councils will probably review their own estimates/ projections in the light of evidence from the Census.

Dwelling trends/ type:

• With some adjustment for mis-reporting of tenure on Census forms, the Census provides a good starting point for tracking change in dwellings by size and tenure at sub-LA level. What would be the benefits/ costs from councils tracking new-build for individual houses by size of house, as well as the other characteristics covered in the new-build returns? Change in some aspects of tenure of the stock could also be tracked through identifying social and other housing in new-build; and from the detailed information we collect on sales.

Dwelling trends/ quality in socially rented and private stock:

• While the national continuous SHCS will allow overall trends in quality to be monitored; it will not give reliable estimates for most council areas, except by aggregating data over a number of years. Councils will be making their own assessments of the quality of the socially rented/ private stock and setting plans for bringing stock up to standard. This raises two issues for statistics at national level:-
• Can/ how can we ensure that individual councils' assessments against the new standard are consistent between councils and over time? The role of LHCS seems to be critical here. CS have recently established a working group to review LHCS methodologies and guidance.
• Can we use the administrative information on improvements to the stock collected by councils to more effectively monitor progress towards the various standards? Issues here include reviewing the data we collect from councils about the outcomes of improvement/ repair activity on their own stock; about the outcomes of improvements funded through HIG; and the data currently collected by CS from HAs on the improvement and repair of their own stock. There may be a role here for councils in collating information from all types of provider.

Restricted access to housing

• The planned extension of the SCORE information system to all social landlords looks to be a vital development in giving understanding of the operation of different aspects of lettings/ allocations at both local and national levels.

Affordability

• The most important developments here; on house prices, RTB and other sales of social housing, and on rents - look to come mainly from national data developments, and there doesn't seem to be much scope for developing supplementary local sources. A key issue in national data development is the extent to which information on the rents of socially rented properties will be picked up in the social landlord database or SCORE developments.
• LHS will, in some instances include assessments of 'pressured areas'. For the Executive, a key issue will be whether/ how we can aggregate these assessments into an overall Scottish picture; and the sorts of information councils will need to gather to monitor changes in pressure arising from any action taken.

Unsuitable housing

• Tracking is going to be generally through national surveys - including the SHS - which can provide LA level summaries every two years. The extension of SCORE, and statistical returns to the Executive on lettings might be designed to include information on transfers from unsuitable to suitable housing by household type - if this is seen as a key set of issues for local/ national policy needs.

Particular populations

• It is recognised that there may be data quality issues in relation to the data which councils currently supply on sheltered and adapted housing. The development of LHS gives us/ councils an opportunity to review the definitions and data sources used to identify numbers and changes in these. On the social housing front there appears to be a need/ opportunity to rationalise data collection on such housing from all social landlords.

Particular urban/ rural areas

• This presents a very complex, and possibly quite localised set of data needs, and possible solutions. The wider information base in the neighbourhood statistics system - covering issues such as neighbourhood quality, access to services health and local environment - must be the key starting point at this stage.

Conclusions and next steps

9. Members are invited to comment on the points raised in the tables and above discussion. Areas where we might usefully develop current data collection systems with councils, Communities Scotland and Housing Associations are:-

• Tracking new building to get better information on characteristics of new stock.
• Tracking improvement activity by all social landlords clearly against the new standard for social housing.
• Tracking improvement activity of private housing supported by government grant against key policy objectives, including new standards for private housing.
• Reviewing data held on sheltered and adapted housing to ensure consistent, up-to-date information.

10. Also, given the potential importance of the SCORE and Social Landlord database developments in neighbourhood statistics, it would be useful to discuss with councils/ housing associations critical features needed to support LHS, before finalising specifications.

The Scottish Executive

April 2003