Scottish Government

SCOTTISH ECONOMIC STATISTICS PLAN 2006/07

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Some developments depend on resource availability and may be part of a wider programme of work (in many cases involving the Office for National Statistics). It provides details of regular outputs and publications together with the proposed developments for the year ahead. This Statistics Plan for 2006/07 covers the economy, income, labour market and enterprise and lifelong learning themes.

Outputs to be produced in 2006/07

The main outputs to be produced in 2006/07 are summarised in the table below.

Developments for 2006/07

Macro-economic Statistics

GDP Quality Improvements

Over the course of the year, Scottish Executive statisticians will review the quality of data and methodology underpinning the Scottish GDP estimates. This will involve a number of developments including:

• a comprehensive review of the seasonal adjustment methodology to accurately model discontinuities in series and fluctuating seasonal patterns over time.A new approach to seasonal adjustment - X12 ARIMA - will also be trialled as a potential replacement for the X11 ARIMA approach used currently;
• in collaboration with the Office for National Statistics, redevelop the existing quarterly top-up inquiry for Scottish manufacturers to enhance coverage and also to yield additional data on exports;
• introduction of new weights, consistent with Regional Accounts and the input-output system, for 2003, in time for the 2006 Q2 publication in October 2006;
• commissioning a feasibility study into the future production of a quarterly expenditure measure of GDP; and
• incorporation of improved data sources and estimates of value added for a number of series within the public sector.

Improved trade flow estimates

by further developing the data and methodology underpinning the Global Connections Survey and harmonising the GCS data with other trade figures, where appropriate, from a variety of other sources. We shall improve the quality of our estimates of exports from Scotland This will involve:

• improving the questionnaire design and sampling and grossing methodologies;
• early engagement with Scottish Development International (SDI), and the Local Enterprise Companies (LECs) to improve response rates and peer review national and local results;
• obtaining updated ONS data on international Trade in Services to supplement survey information and improve service sector estimates;
• reviewing and developing the system for quality checking estimates, with LEC checks carried out earlier on in the process.

More integrated Macro-economic Information System

and UK National Accountants. Over the next year, Scottish Executive statisticians will complete final preparations for the introduction of a new system which has been developed in-house to produce the annual input-Output balances. A formal consultation framework will also be established in the form of an experts group populated by key users of the IO tables in Scotland

Detailed developments include:

• including updated ABI Purchase Inquiry data for Scotland ;
• reviewing the methodology and Data sources for the Government sector;
• improving the Imports estimates within the IO tables using new data sources, principally the Global Connections Survey, and methodologies;
• establishing an Input-Output Expert Users group;
• produce a Revisions Policy for the IO Tables.

Improved measurement of Government Output in Scotland

eview Final Report. Over the next year, Scottish Executive statisticians will continue to co-ordinate activity across the Scottish Executive towards the implementation of the recommendations in the Atkinson R We shall be working closely with ONS to ensure that Scottish data are incorporated in the UK estimates (to appear in the 2007 Blue Book) and as an input into our own estimates in the GDP and input-output systems.

Quarterly updates on progress towards these goals will be published on the Scottish Executive website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/15572/Atkinson

Improved estimates for Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland

statistics that is planned to be published in December 2006. Government Expenditure and Revenue in ScotlandOver the course of this year, HM Treasury is putting in place a programme of data collection that is aimed at creating more detailed breakdowns of regional expenditure by Government departments. The additional information will be used to improve the spending estimates in the

Detailed developments include:

• more detailed identification of English spending;
• review of estimation methodologies to use the most appropriate data sources available.

Business & Enterprise Statistics

The Business & Enterprise Statistics branch carried out a review of analysis opportunities during 2004/05. This provided the strategy for work in the coming years to improve the quality and range of business & enterprise statistics for Scotland . This will include pursuing analysis opportunities through linked datasets, improving timeliness of key statistics and broadening the range of data available. We will also consult with Ministers and other stakeholders to determine their views of the key gaps in our statistics. We will work to determine how best these gaps may be closed. Further details are listed below:

Planned Developments for 2006/07

Business Statistics

• Bring forward the timetable for Scottish Corporate Sector statistics, by moving to an analysis of March data extracts, consistent with the equivalent UK publication
• Continue to work with ONS and other government departments to harmonise methods of business stock analysis
• Provide more detailed analysis of Scottish business stock and business structure
• Review geographies methodology for business data and develop analysis at more detailed geography levels where possible
• Investigate the possibility of expanding the analysis available on foreign owned companies
• Feed into ONS work on the development of the new Business Register and Employment Survey

Research & Development (R&D) and Innovation

• Work with ONS to establish the possibility of more timely access to detailed Scottish business research and development (BERD) data
• Provide more analytical commentary on BERD performance in Scotland
• Commission analysis of the latest Community Innovation Survey results for Scotland

Productivity and Investment

• Work with ONS to try to improve the data available on both total investment and business investment for Scotland
• Work with Office of Chief Economic Advisor to develop an industry level productivity index consistent with the ONS Scottish index
• Work with Office of Chief Economic Advisor on research into Total Factor Productivity

Data-linking

• Work with other government departments to improve matching methods for business data-linking
• Work with ONS, with a view to establishing a Scottish access point to the ONS microdata lab.
• Commission Scottish research on business growth and/or productivity to improve understanding of the area, but also to establish the effectiveness of the ONS microdata lab for Scottish analysis

Other inputs to policy development and monitoring

• Manage the 'Scottish Innovation Systems: Review and Application of Policy' research work
• Build a system to pull together industry data from various statistical sources to assist with sectoral analysis

Dissemination

• Develop the business statistics website to provide more analytical commentary and information on key trends

Lifelong Learning

Summary of main outputs

• Further and Higher Education student statistics
• Learner Support Statistics

Planned Developments for 2006/07

Publications and dissemination:

• We will consult with Ministers and other stakeholders to determine their views of the key gaps in our statistics. We will work to determine how best these gaps may be closed
• We will continue to issue publications on: students in Higher Education, the age participation index, graduates and their destinations, Higher Education student support and Education Maintenance Allowances (EMAs); In consultation with data users we will continue and improve current publications
• We will work towards placing the publication on EMAs under the National Statistics framework
• We will contribute to Neighbourhood Statistics from summer 2006: students and entrants.
• We will link our data with related information from other agencies
• By increasing its scope and improving navigation we will further improve the website.

Strategic data improvements:

• By working with data providers (Higher Education Statistics Agency, Scottish Funding Council, Local Authorities, Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, Student Awards Agency for Scotland, Student Loans Company) we will help to ensure that data continue to meet current and future needs, are comprehensive and accurate.
• Within the framework of Management Information Across Partners (MIAP) we will work to improve opportunities for combining and matching data from different learning providers.
• Detailed data on FE Bursaries will be collected from 2006-07 onwards.
• Contribution to the education dimension of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation

Input to policy development:

• Participation in the reviews of Higher and Further Education and the work on the future of the sectors
• Publish OECD comparison on entry rates to degree level courses
• Participation in policy reviews on student support
• Developing of performance indicators
• Allocation of hardship funds to institutions
• Further analysis of survey data on students living conditions and participation in the Eurostudent project, allowing comparison of living conditions between countries
• Participation in an OECD study on the social outcomes of learning

Labour Market Statistics

The Scottish Executive will continue to pursue various initiatives to improve the quality and consistency of Labour Market statistics in Scotland This will include detailed analysis of the Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey (LFS/APS) and further development of the quarterly public sector employment figures. We will also consult with Ministers and other stakeholders to determine their views on key gaps in labour market statistics. We will work to determine how best these gaps may be closed. Further details are listed below:

Planned Developments for 2006/07

Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

• Publish the results of the APS in Scotland , which includes the Scottish LFS boost, on a calendar year basis for the first time.
• Continue to work with the Office for National Statistics to improve the quality of the LFS/APS in Scotland and ensure that the boost to the LFS in future years continues to be of an acceptable quality
• Work with ONS to investigate the possibility of carrying out face to face interviews North of the Caledonian Canal and also the feasibility and cost of a boost in minority ethnic respondents to the LFS
• New/Additional outputs include: data on deprived areas, urban/rural data, more frequent data.

Public Sector Employment Publication

• Continue to publish the Quarterly Public Sector Employment Series for Scotland .
• In Conjunction with ONS:

- Ensure that coverage of the public sector bodies in Scotland is complete and accurate;

- Streamline systems to allow for earlier publication of public sector employment data, target time lag of 2.5 months;

- Work with the information and statistics directorate of NHS Scotland to obtain more accurate and timely NHS workforce statistics;

- Investigate the possibility of seasonally adjusting the public sector employment series.

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

• Produce data on more detailed geographies within Scotland

Input to Policy Development and Monitoring

• Monitor Closing the Opportunity Gap targets A & B which deal with reducing workless benefit claimants and those aged 16-19 Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET).
• Provide analysis on issues concerning the Employability Framework and the NEET strategy.
• Continue to seek access to the Department of Work and Pensions Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study to establish better information on flows of people on and off benefits and training schemes including the characteristics of those dependant on benefits in Scotland .
• Work with relevant partners to help develop the possibility of a 14-19 year old database to help Careers Scotland and other partners help prevent the flow of young people into the NEET group and also help young people out of the NEET group.
• Develop data to allow monitoring of NEET at detailed geographies and within different client groups.
• Develop data for measurement of lifelong learning in Scotland .

Dissemination

• Develop labour market statistics website to allow for easier navigation around labour market datasets for both experienced and new users of labour market data.
• Develop economic profiles to include other geographies such as LEC's, CPP's, Urban/Rural areas and deprived/non deprived areas.
• Work with local data users to ensure that maximum use is being made of available data and that data gaps are identified.

Regional Policy

• Supporting Regional Selective Assistance Scotland and European Structural Funds Divisions in reviewing eligible areas with the aim to optimise coverage in Scotland .
• Identify appropriate economic indicators to help with the development of an Assisted Areas map in Scotland .

Minority Ethnic Economic Data

• Work with relevant partners to help develop existing data on ethnic minority employees in the labour market.
• Liaise with the Department for Work and Pensions to seek better information on benefit claims by ethnic group.
• Investigate existing administrative data to help monitor the impact of changes in strategy surrounding minority ethnic employment which come out of the Ethnic Minorities in the Labour Market Strategic Group.

OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISER
DEPARTMENT FOR ENTERPRISE, TRANSPORT AND LIFELONG LEARNING: ANALYTICAL SERVICES DIVISION
SCOTTISH EXECUTIVE MAY 2006