POLICE FORCE PROJECTION STUDY
This study projects police officer numbers up to June 2011 on the basis of the information currently available to the Scottish Government.
The Scottish Government committed to recruit 1,000 more police officers during the lifetime of this Parliament. More recently the Scottish Government has reached an agreement with COSLA leaders to maintain police officer numbers during 2011/12 at 17,234 (full-time equivalent).
The Scottish Government honoured its initial commitment by providing specific funding for 1,000 additional police officers, in addition to core police funding. These additional officers were recruited over the last four years.
In addition to the 1,000 additional police officers funded by the Scottish Government, some police forces also recruited additional officers with the result that in recent quarters police officer numbers have often been significantly higher than 17,234:
Projecting police officer numbers
The projection of police officer numbers at any one time consists of:
- The starting number
- Plus recruitment
- Minus retirals
- Minus other leavers
Projections have been prepared at a Scotland-wide level. Projecting numbers at a police force level is not feasible, given transfers between forces and secondments to and from the Scottish Police Services Authority (SPSA), Scottish Crime and Drug Enforcement Agency (SCDEA), the Scottish Government and others.
The starting number
We are using officer numbers at 31 December 2010 as the starting point. These are taken from the Police Officer Quarterly Strength Statistics. The starting point for these projections is therefore 17,217. 1
Recruitment
All forces have provisional recruitment plans projecting recruitment up until June 2011 and it is the recruitment figures in these plans, as provided by the Association of Chief Police Officers in Scotland (ACPOS) 2 that have been used in this study, as below.
Between 1 January and 31 March 2011 | 263 |
Between 1 April and 30 June 2011 | 204 |
Retirals
Retirals and other leavers have to be estimated. For retirals we have used figures supplied by ACPOS for those eligible to retire, and applied to them assumptions about the proportion of those eligible that will actually retire, based on past experience.
ACPOS' estimates 3 of the numbers of officers who will become eligible to retire over the next few months are as follows:
Between 1 January and 31 March 2011 | 147 |
Between 1 April and 30 June 2011 | 112 |
The numbers actually retiring in any year are highly likely to differ from those eligible. The proportions vary for each force but across Scotland typically 70-80% of eligible officers will take retirement in any one year. This proportion could change. For example, if officers believe that in the current economic environment there may be fewer job opportunities after retirement, they might look to stay on longer. Conversely, if officers believe that pensions benefits might reduce in the near future, this could encourage them to retire as soon as they have completed thirty years service.
This projection therefore models a number of different scenarios - that 0%, 20% and 30% of eligible officers delay their retirement for at least one year:
% of officers who retire in the year they become eligible | 100% | 80% | 70% |
Between 1 January and 31 March 2011 | 147 | 118 | 103 |
Between 1 April and 30 June 2011 | 112 | 90 | 78 |
Other leavers
Other leavers include resignations, dismissals, ill-health retirals and those who leave the police service for other reasons. We have made estimates based on figures published by Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary for Scotland (HMICS) for the numbers of officers leaving in recent years. These show that in the three years up to and including 2008-09 (the latest figures available) on average 2.1% of officer headcount at the start of the year left other than through normal retirement. 4 For the purpose of these projections, the same percentage has been applied going forward.
Between 1 January and 31 March 2011 | 92 officers to leave (0.525% of total headcount) |
Between 1 April and 30 June 2011 | 92 officers to leave |
The projections
Using the method described above and the figures for starting number, recruitment, retirals and other leavers already set out, the projections of police officer numbers are as follows:
| Jan-March 2011 | April-June 2011 |
Number of officers (FTE) at the start of the quarter | 17217 | 17270 |
Planned recruitment | 263 | 204 |
Expected retirals* | 118 | 90 |
Other Leavers | 92 | 92 |
Net change | 53 | 22 |
Projected numbers (FTE) at the end of the quarter | 17270 | 17292 |
*Central assumption - 80% of those eligible retire.
To take account of the scope for variations in the number of retirals it would be safer to quote a range of possible outcomes. The following table sets out the impact of different rates of retiral on the final projection:
% of officers who retire in year they become eligible | Projected FTE police officer numbers on 30 June 2011 |
100% | 17241 |
80% | 17292 |
70% | 17319 |
Conclusion
Actual officer numbers in June 2011 will vary depending on when recruits join the police service and on the numbers who retire or leave. These projections, based on the best available evidence, show that officer numbers at that date are likely to be between 17,241 and 17,319. The central point in this range is 17,280.
The Scottish Government, March 2011
________________________________
1 Police Officer Quarterly Strength Statistics provided by police forces, published on 1 March 2011, as an Official Statistics Publication for Scotland
2 Note from ACPOS Finance Management Business Area
3 Op cit
4 Police recruitment and wastage statistics collated by HMICS