Section 94 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires an annual carbon assessment of the Budget, with the Scottish Government producing a report describing the direct and indirect impact on greenhouse gas emissions of its expenditure plans. The most recent carbon assessment of the draft Budget was published in November.
The assessment is produced by combining a general model of the economy together with greenhouse gas emission data and the financial data that is contained in the Draft Budget. This collection of information is used to estimate the carbon emissions likely to be associated with the goods and services purchased through the Draft Budget, whether they are produced within Scotland, or imported. The estimates of emissions do not take account of the impact of salary and pensions spending, nor future emissions that may be saved through current investments e.g. the impact of home insulation grants, forestry development, etc. A fuller description of the methodology applied is available.
The assessment of the carbon associated with the budget takes a high-level view which is most appropriate to be used in comparisons at similar scales (like the carbon footprint for the whole of Scotland). It can highlight the main areas of the economy which contribute emissions associated with Scottish Government expenditure, and the major sectors in which emissions associated with spending are generated in the wider economy providing a backdrop for more detailed decision making. It does not however provide the means to identify how best to reduce the emissions associated with Government spending and activity. The levers for making these reductions lie elsewhere in the overall carbon assessment process - particularly the policy appraisal process.
It is estimated that emissions associated with the Draft Budget 2011-12 amount to 7.6 million tonnes (Mt) CO2-equivalent. For comparison, the total carbon footprint for Scotland in 2006 was 85 Mt CO2-equivalent. It is clear that this methodology shows a strong positive correlation between spend and emissions; more spending tends to lead to more emissions The result being that the larger spending areas, such as Finance and Sustainable Growth, Transport and Health tend to contribute most emissions.
With the exception of the Rural Affairs and Environment portfolio, the current estimates suggest little variation between portfolios in terms of the intensity of carbon associated with expenditure, or the industrial sectors through which the emissions are generated. Agriculture and land use activities tend to create emissions of methane and nitrous oxide - much more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide - which result in the higher estimated intensity. However, in overall expenditure terms, the relatively small Rural Affairs and Environment budget offsets the impact of that higher intensity on the carbon assessment as a whole, and it is important to place this assessment within the wider context of government objectives.
The analysis shows that, if the impact of spending on emissions is to change, progress must be made on decarbonising all sectors of the economy.