A NATIONAL STATISTICS PUBLICATION FOR SCOTLAND
SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS ESTIMATES
FOR THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2010
14 October 2010
Scottish manufactured export sales grew by 0.6 per cent in real terms in the second quarter of 2010 and fell by 2.5 per cent over the year to the end of June 2010, according to estimates published today by Scotland's Chief Statistician.
The main findings are:
· Scottish manufactured export sales increased by 0.6 per cent in real terms in 2010 Q2 (seasonally adjusted). The level of Scottish manufactured export sales decreased by 2.5 per cent in real terms over the year to 2010 Q2.
· Over the quarter, growth in exports was observed in textiles, fur & leather (+22.8%); metals & metal products (+15.1%); wood, paper, publishing & printing (+6.9%); chemicals, coke, refined petroleum & nuclear fuel (+2.9%) and engineering and allied industries (+1.3%). In the same period, declines were observed in food, drink and tobacco (-4.4%) and other manufacturing (-6.5%).
· Over the year to June 2010, growth was observed in food, drink & tobacco (+10.1%); wood, paper, publishing & printing (+8.4%); chemicals, coke, refined petroleum & nuclear fuel (+5.0%) and other manufacturing (+4.9%). Over the year, declines were observed in engineering & allied industries (-13.6%); textiles, fur & leather (-3.5%) and metals & metal products (-2.3%).
BACKGROUND NOTES
Methodology
1. Estimates of Scottish manufactured exports are compiled on the standard industrial classification UKSIC(2003). Implemented on 1 January 2003, UKSIC(2003) is a minor revision to UKSIC(92), in line with the latest revision of the European Union classification system.
2. The estimates are derived from data on sales of goods produced by the Scottish manufacturing industry for export outwith the UK. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) collect the data used to produce these figures in their Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Export estimates for the refined petroleum products industry are calculated using a volume series supplied by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and export ratios estimated using the Scottish Government's Global Connections Survey.
3. The main purpose of the Index is to identify volume changes over time. Accordingly, data are deflated to 2005 prices using UK export producer price indices, which are produced by the ONS. These constant (2005) price estimates provide a more appropriate measure for monitoring change over time as they have had the effect of price changes removed.
4. Deflated exports sales of the companies covered by the MBS are weighted to represent the entire population of each industry using the Inter Departmental Business Register.
5. Further cross-referencing of company information from the Global Connections Survey (GCS) is being carried out to enhance the level of consistency between individual company records held in both sources.
6. The data have been seasonally adjusted where appropriate using the X-12-ARIMA technique. Further information is available in an article published in the 2006 edition of Scottish Economic Statistics. ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/ses/).
7. Equivalent figures, on a cash basis, for Table 1 are available on the experimental SNAP website. These are presented in constant and current prices, and both seasonally adjusted and non- seasonally adjusted. These are available using the following link:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/SNAP
8. In the base year (2007), the index was based on a sample of 935 Scottish manufacturing companies. In this quarter, the sample size was 813. Whilst this decrease in sample has been factored into the weighting, the confidence intervals are likely to have widened slightly. The sample covers all sizes of unit across the manufacturing sector.
Volatility
9. Some of the indices for smaller industries can be particularly volatile when examined on a quarterly basis. In some cases, this is due to the nature of the industry (e.g. transport equipment); in others it can be due to the relatively small size of the industry in export terms (e.g. food & tobacco). For these reasons, care should be taken when drawing any firm conclusions from individual quarter results. Estimates of annual changes will be more robust than quarterly changes.
The Global Connections Survey
10. The annual Global Connections Survey (GCS) provides a current price estimate, in monetary terms, of the value of exports sales for the economy as a whole; the only survey to do so. The Quarterly Index of Manufactured Exports provides a time series of growth in export sales, in constant prices, for the manufacturing industry. The annual estimate of total exports from Scotland derived from the Global Connections Survey indicates that the manufacturing sector accounted for £14.0 billion in 2008 - 68 per cent of all exports from Scotland.
11. Further information about the methodology of the Index of Manufactured Exports and the Global Connections Survey can be found on the website at: www.scotland.gov.uk/exports
Revisions
12. It is the Scottish Government's policy to use all the data available at the time of publication to ensure that the best possible estimates are provided. This inevitably leads to revisions to previously published estimates. All quarters affected by data revisions are updated at the earliest possible opportunity. This allows those using the data for long-term analysis to have a long-term consistent series. We have a commitment to improve continually the quality of the index of manufactured exports, and part of this commitment involves an ongoing programme to develop the data sources and methodologies used in the compilation of the series.
13. The chart above shows a comparison of the overall Index this quarter and the index published in July 2010. Tables 3 and 4 provide detailed information of revisions at industry level. Quarterly revisions which balance out to zero over the year usually indicate that there has been a change to the seasonal pattern of the series rather than a revision to the data for any companies.
14. Revisions this quarter have particularly affected the chemicals, coke, refined petroleum & nuclear fuel series. These revisions are due to use of improved data on this sector from other sources.
15. Other revisions this quarter have resulted from revisions to information previously supplied by respondent companies and re-estimation of seasonal adjustment factors. The series most affected by these revisions is the textiles, fur & leather series.
Future Revisions
16. There are no major planned methodology changes before the next release in January 2011. Alignment with the Global Connections survey is being reviewed.
National Statistics
17. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. Mercury and Profile users may obtain a copy of the Index tables by telephoning the number below or via the website www.scotland.gov.uk/exports
Issued by:
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Scottish Government
St Andrew's House
Regent Road
Edinburgh EH1 3DG
Telephone:
Communications Office: 0131-244-5122
Assistant Statistician: Karren Friel 0131-244-2838