Executive Summary
Population ageing poses a massive challenge to future public service delivery in Scotland, particularly to many areas of housing policy. The main impacts are on changing demands for housing supply and the housing stock; in support for people to remain at home; and on adaptations to housing stock. Each of these types of housing needs is projected to rise rapidly as a result of population ageing.
Baseline assessment
- Costs are projected to continue to rise for support for people to remain at home.
- Specialist housing is under pressure, as some older stock is unsuitable, and yet it remains popular with residents.
- Care and Repair services to older people vary widely in cost and extent across Scottish Local Authorities but can help to keep older people in their own homes.
- Adaptations can be very cost effective in keeping people in their own homes, but have to be timely and appropriate.
- Building homes that are accessible to as wide a range of people as possible and are better suited to adaptation to meet our changing needs should help to reduce pressure in future by improving the suitability of newbuild for older people.
Understanding Population Ageing for Housing
- The population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 857,000 in 2008, to 1,409,000 in 2033. The number of households with a head of household aged over 65 is projected to increase from 594,330 to 951,770 over the same period.
- The population aged 65 and over with a life limiting illness or disability is projected to rise over the same period, though patterns vary by local authority. Using the Attendance Allowance eligibility figures, those eligible for this benefit is projected to rise from 168,000 in 2008 to 271,000
- Disabled pensioners are more common in areas of high multiple deprivation.
Housing Stock
- Levels of sheltered housing stock have been in decline since 2006.
- At current levels the ratio of sheltered housing stock to disabled pensioners is projected to fall in all areas of Scotland. This would be worse if the current rate of decline in stock is maintained.
- In order to maintain current ratios of provision to probable need, the combined numbers of sheltered and very sheltered housing stock would need to rise from 38,000 in 2008/9, to 45,900 in 2018 and to 61,400 in 2033, a rise of 23,400 units over the period.
Support
- Pressure on informal and family support is projected to rise as age ratios change.
- Costs of formal housing support have been rising for local authorities
- Numbers of people requiring support for people to remain at home or Free Personal and Nursing Care are projected to continue to rise, particularly as those aged over 75 years grows even more rapidly than the overall pensioner population.
Adaptations
- Large numbers of dwellings have already been adapted, however, there is a constant need with differing requirements.
- Overall pensioner households requiring adaptations are projected to rise from 66,300 households in 2008 to 106,174 in 2033, all things remaining equal.
- Bathrooms and shower adaptations are the most common requirements for adaptations.
- Rates of adaptations required vary from 10% of total households in West Dunbartonshire to less than 1% in the City of Edinburgh, the Scottish average is 4% of households.
- Glasgow has the highest number of households in need of adaptation at 11,000.
Implications
- Increasing numbers of pensioner owner occupier households and reducing numbers of working age owner occupier households may affect the future housing market.
- Large numbers of later middle aged people will reach retirement age at the same time and may need to access equity in their houses or to sell their house which may affect the future housing market.
- Older Home owners are more likely to want to move to a smaller property than to a larger property.