SUMMARY TRANSPORT STATISTICS INCLUDING HISTORICAL SERIES
Figure 1 Vehicles licensed
Figure 2 New registrations of vehicles
SUMMARY TRANSPORT STATISTICS
1. Introduction
1.1 This chapter provides some main points from the statistics on transport in Scotland, and some comparisons with the figures for Great Britain (or the UK as a whole).
2. The content of this chapter
2.1 The summary is arranged as follows:
- section 3 - motor vehicles, the road network, traffic, toll bridges and road casualties;
- section 4 - public transport (bus, rail, air and ferry);
- section 5 - personal travel (possession of driving licences; frequency of driving, walking and cycling; travel to work and travel to school);
- section 6 - freight;
- section 7 - cross-border transport;
- section 8 - notes, sources and further information
Comparisons with the figures for GB/ UK are included within sections 3 to 6.
2.2 The charts show some of the main trends in transport in Scotland since 1975, and some comparisons with GB over the past ten years. The tables, which appear at the end of the chapter, provide:
- a summary of the trends for each mode of transport in Scotland over the past ten years - Tables S1 and S2;
- a summary of the main trends shown by the Scottish Household Survey - Table S3;
- a summary of cross-border transport for some different modes over the past ten years - Table S4;
- a comparison of some key figures for Scotland and Great Britain (or, in a few cases, the UK as a whole) - Tables SGB1 to SGB3; and
- a summary of the longer-term trends in passenger and freight transport, traffic estimates and some other vehicle-related statistics, back to 1960 in some cases - Tables H1 to H4.
3. Motor vehicles, traffic and road casualties
3.1 Motor vehicles
3.1.1 The number of motor vehicles licensed in Scotland in 2008 was almost 2.7 million, 2 per cent more than the previous year, 30 per cent higher than the number in 1998 and the highest figure ever recorded. Over the longer-term, the number of vehicles licensed has increased from an estimated 0.8 million in 1962. Figure 1 shows the trends since 1975: there have been increases in almost every year.
3.1.2 There were around 215,000 new vehicle registrations in Scotland in 2008, a decrease of 14 per cent on 2007. It was the tenth highest figure ever recorded, 2 per cent more than in 1998 and two and a half times the number (86,000) in 1962. Figure 2 shows that the number of new registrations of vehicles has risen and fallen a number of times during the period since 1975, and that it has been around a quarter of a million per year only within the last five years.
Figure 3 Traffic (vehicle kilometres)
Figure 4 Road accident casualties
3.1.3 In 2008, there were 52 vehicles per 100 population in Scotland compared with 58 in Great Britain. Figure 7 shows that the number of vehicles per head of population has been rising steadily, and has been consistently lower in Scotland than in Great Britain.
3.1.4 The Scottish Household Survey ( SHS) shows that, in 2008, 70 per cent of households had at least one car available for private use - up from 63 per cent in 1999. Twenty six per cent of households had two or more cars in 2008, compared with 18 per cent in 1999. As the SHS is a sample survey, its results are subject to apparent year-to-year fluctuations.
3.1.5 2007 is the latest year for which one can compare the availability of cars to households in Scotland and GB as a whole, using the results from the combined samples of some GB-wide surveys (such as the National Travel Survey). In 2007, around 71 per cent of households in Scotland had the regular use of a car compared to 76 per cent in Great Britain as a whole. Any year-to-year fluctuations, and differences between these results and those of the SHS, are likely to be due to sampling variability.
3.2 The road network
3.2.1 Provisional figures show there were almost 56,000 kilometres of public road in Scotland in 2008 with the trunk road network accounting for 6 per cent of this. Relative to the size of the population, the length of the road network is greater in Scotland than in Great Britain: in 2008, Scotland had 10.7 kilometres of road per 1,000 population; GB had only 6.6 kilometres per 1,000 population.
3.3 Road traffic
3.3.1 The estimated total volume of traffic on Scotland's roads in 2008 was over 44 billion (thousand million) vehicle kilometres - 0.4 per cent less than 2007 and 14 per cent more than the figure for 1998. The total volume of traffic is at its second highest ever level: the estimates show increases in every one of the past ten years apart from 2000, which was affected by the fuel protests.
3.3.2 The pattern in Scotland was similar to that for Great Britain as a whole. The total volume of traffic for Great Britain fell by 1 per cent between 2007 and 2008, and was 11 per cent higher than ten years earlier, with increases in every year (including a very slight rise in 2000).
3.3.3 Figure 3 shows the longer-term trends in Scotland. It is estimated that the volume of car traffic on major roads (Motorways and A roads) has more than doubled, from an estimated 9,300 million vehicle kilometres in 1975 to around 22,000 million vehicle kilometres in recent years. Figure 3 shows that the main rise was between 1983 and 1995.
3.3.4 Per head of population, there is less traffic on Motorways, more traffic on A roads, and more traffic on all roads taken together (including B, C and unclassified roads) in Scotland than in Great Britain.
Figure 5 Passenger numbers: local bus and rail
Figure 6 Passenger numbers: rail, air and ferry (selected services)
3.4 Toll bridges
3.4.1 Although tolls were abolished in Scotland in February 2008, around 23.8 million vehicles were estimated to have crossed the Forth Road Bridge (about 65,200 per day) in 2007, approximately 0.5 per cent more than 2006. The Tay Bridge had an estimated 9.0 million vehicles crossing, 2 per cent more than 2006. Tolls for the Skye Bridge were removed on 24 December 2004, and for the Erskine Bridge on 31 March 2006, therefore statistics on crossings are no longer available.
3.5 Road casualties
3.5.1 The number of road deaths in Scotland in 2008 (270) was 4 per cent less than in 2007, and the lowest figure since current records began over 50 years ago. 2,568 people were seriously injured in road accidents in 2008, 8 per cent more than in 2007, and the second lowest figure recorded. Over the past ten years, the number of people injured in road accidents fell by 31 per cent to 15,576 in 2008. Figure 4 shows that there have been falls in most years since 1979. Although in some years the drop appeared to be levelling off, over the longer-term the number of casualties injured in road accidents has fallen steadily.
3.5.2 Since 1998, the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents has fallen by a slightly higher percentage (36%) in Scotland as in Great Britain (35%). The number of people killed or seriously injured per thousand population was slightly higher in Scotland than Great Britain in 2008 (about 0.55 and 0.48 respectively).
4. Public transport: bus, rail and air and ferry
4.1 Local bus services
4.1.1 In the 2008-09 financial year there were 515 million passenger journeys on local bus services in Scotland, a decrease over the previous year of 0.4 per cent. Note that 2007/08 and 2008/09 use a revised methodology and cannot be compared with earlier years. See paragraph 4.1.5 of Chapter 2 for more detail.
4.1.2 However, over the longer-term, there have been large falls. There were almost 1,700 million passenger journeys on local bus services in 1960. The number had almost halved by 1975. Since then, it has roughly halved again, from 891 million in 1975 to 513 million in 2007-08. There were falls in every year between 1960 and 1999 except 1985, 1987 and 1988. Figure 3 shows the trends since 1975; it and Figure 4 show that local bus passenger numbers are much higher than other modes of public transport.
4.2 Rail passenger services
4.2.1 There were 83.9 million ScotRail passenger journeys recorded in 2008-09, 2.6 million (3 per cent) more than in the previous year, and 44 per cent more than 10 years earlier. This is 76.4 million journeys using the new methodology explained in 4.2.2 below. Over the longer-term, the number of rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland (including cross-border journeys) fell from a peak of 73 million in 1964 to a low of 50 million in 1982.
Figure 7 Vehicles licensed per 100 population
Figure 8 Passenger numbers per head of population: local bus and rail
Figure 9 Passenger numbers per head of population: rail and air
4.2.2 ScotRail introduced a new methodology which better estimates Zonecard journeys and took effect from 1st April 2009. The reported figures for the years up to 2008-09 are not changing, but ScotRail has derived estimates of annual patronage figures for previous years based on this new methodology. Table S1 shows both the reported figures and the estimated figures which show a reduction of around 9% on total journeys. Note that using both the old and new methods of estimating Zonecard journeys yields a growth rate of 3% in 2008-09. The overall trend during the period in which ScotRail have held the franchise (since 17th October 2004) remains the same regardless of which Zonecard methodology is used.
4.2.3 Figure 6 shows that, from 1982 until 1996-97, passenger numbers remained between 50 million and 60 million per year. Latterly, rail patronage had been rising since 1994-95 and reached almost 65 million in 1999-00, but then fell to just over 61 million in 2002-03, before rising again to almost 88 million in 2007-08.
4.2.4 Over the last ten years, ScotRail passenger numbers have increased slightly less than GB as a whole. Figure 9 shows that, per head of population, there are fewer rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland than in Great Britain as a whole: 17.0 per head in Scotland in 2007-08, compared with 20.8 per head in Great Britain. Over the longer-term, the number of rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland (including cross-border journeys) fell from a peak of 73 million in 1964 to a low of 50 million in 1982
4.3 Air passengers
4.3.1 There were around 24.3 million air terminal passengers at airports in Scotland in 2008, the third largest number ever recorded: 3 per cent less than in the previous year, and 60 per cent more than in 1998. Figure 6 shows the rise since 1975. Over the longer-term, terminal passenger numbers grew from 1.2 million in 1960 to 24.3 million in 2008.
4.3.2 Between 1998 and 2008, the number of air terminal passengers increased by 60 per cent for Scotland and 48 per cent for the UK as a whole. Over the past ten years, the number of passengers per head of population has been higher for Scotland than for the UK.
4.4 Ferry services
4.4.1 In 2008, just under 6 million passengers were carried on those shipping services within Scotland for which figures are available back to 1973 (i.e. Caledonian MacBrayne, P&O Scottish Ferries / NorthLink Orkney and Shetland, and Orkney Ferries). This was 5 per cent less than in the previous year. Figure 6 shows the long-term trends, which were affected by the reduction in traffic that followed the opening of the Skye Bridge in 1995.
Figure 10 Freight lifted: road and coastwise shipping
Figure 11 Freight lifted: coastwise shipping, pipelines, inland waterway, rail
5. Personal travel (e.g. driving, walking and cycling; travel to work and school)
5.1 Possession of driving licences, and frequency of driving
5.1.1 68 per cent of people aged 17 or over had a full driving licence in 2008: 76 per cent of men and 60 per cent of women. Since 1999, the proportion of men who have a driving licence has remained steady at almost three-quarters, whereas the percentage of women aged 17+ who have a full driving licence has increased eight percentage points since 1999. As a sample survey, the SHS's results are subject to sampling variability.
5.1.2 In 2008, 45 per cent of people aged 17+ said that they drove every day. The percentages who said that they drove at least 3 times a week (but not every day) rose from 8 per cent in 1999 to 10 per cent in 2008.
5.2 Frequency of walking and cycling
5.2.1 Respondents are asked on how many of the previous seven days they walked more than a quarter of a mile (a) in order to go somewhere (i.e. used walking as a means of transport), and (b) for pleasure or to keep fit, including walking a dog. In 2008, 53 per cent of individuals reported walking to go somewhere on at least one of the previous seven days. This figure has fluctuated from year to year, presumably due to sampling variability. However, the percentage who said that they had walked for pleasure, to keep fit had increased 6 percentage points since 1999.
5.2.2 Respondents were asked similar questions about cycling. In 2008, about 5 per cent said that they had cycled as a means of transport and also for pleasure or to keep fit. These percentages are similar to those found in 1999.
5.3 Travel to work and travel to school
5.3.1 In 2008, over two-thirds of commuters said that they travelled to work by car or van (60% as a driver and 6% as a passenger), 13 per cent walked, 12 per cent went by bus, 4 per cent took a train and 2 per cent cycled. While there have been year-to-year fluctuations in the SHS's results, the percentage driving to work has risen 5 percentage points whereas passengers fell by 6 percentage points.
5.3.2 The Labour Force Survey ( LFS) shows that the percentage of people travelling to work who go by car has tended to be slightly lower in Scotland than in Great Britain as a whole, and the percentage using public transport has tended to be slightly higher in Scotland than in Great Britain. According to the LFS, in Autumn 2008, 69 per cent of people travelling to work in Scotland did so by car (compared with 70 per cent in Great Britain) and 16 per cent used public transport (compared with 15 per cent for Great Britain). The year-to-year fluctuations, and any differences from the results of the SHS, are likely to be due to sampling variability.
5.3.3 Around 49 per cent of pupils walked to school in 2008, 24 per cent went by bus, 24 per cent by car, 2 per cent cycled, and 1 per cent went by rail. While there have been year-to-year fluctuations in the results, it appears that, since the SHS started in 1999, the percentage going by car has risen from around 18 per cent.
6. Freight
6.1 Freight lifted - tonnes
6.1.1 Freight lifted by road in Scotland in 2008 was 164 million tonnes. The figures for 2004 onwards should not be compared with the statistics for earlier years because there is a break in the series following changes to DfT's survey methodology and processing. Prior to that, there had been little change from year to year in the ten years up to 2003. Over the longer-term, the amount of freight carried by road fluctuated between 1975 and 1987 (see Figure 10), rising to 172 million tonnes in 1976 and falling to 128 million tonnes in 1986. After 1988, it was more stable, varying between 149 million tonnes (in 1991) and 162 million tonnes (in 1996). The total of 153 million tonnes in 2003 was the third lowest in the period since 1988. Figures 10 and 11 show that, in terms of tonnes lifted, much more freight is carried by road than by any other mode of transport. Per head of population, the amount of freight which is lifted by road is slightly higher in Scotland than in Great Britain.
6.1.2 The volume of rail freight traffic lifted in Scotland fell from 29.8 million tonnes in 1960 to 5.4 million tonnes in 1994-95. Figure 11 shows that since then it has increased in most years, and stood at 11 million tonnes in 2007-08.
6.1.3 Coastwise freight traffic lifted in Scotland rose from 24 million tonnes in 1987 to 40 million tonnes in 1998. Since then, the total has fallen to around 19-23 million tonnes in five of the latest six years (the figure for 2005 appears unusual). However, the figures from 2000 are on a different basis from those for earlier years (see Chapter 10). The annual amount of freight lifted for inland waterways has remained between about 9 and 12 million tonnes since 1982. Figure 11 shows the trends since 1980 (inland waterway) and 1987 (coastwise traffic). Per head of population, much more freight is lifted by coastwise shipping in Scotland than in Great Britain.
6.1.4 The amount of oil carried in Scottish pipelines rose rapidly to 23 million tonnes in 1977, and has fluctuated since then between 21 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes per year. Figure 11 shows the trends since 1975. Per head of population, the amount of freight which is lifted by pipeline is significantly greater in Scotland than in Great Britain.
6.2 Freight moved - tonne-kilometres
6.2.1 Figures 10 and 11 showed that, in terms of tonnes lifted, much more freight is carried by road than by any other mode of transport. However, a different picture can be seen when account is taken of the distance that freight is carried. Table H2(b) shows that, in terms of tonne-kilometres, coastwise shipping accounted for the largest amount of freight moved in most years, with road coming second (in 2004 the position was reversed). Rail and pipeline still move smaller amounts of freight than road. However, they represent a higher proportion of the total for road freight when they are measured in tonne-kilometres, because of the greater distance (on average) for which freight is carried by rail and by pipeline.
7. Cross-border transport
7.1 Table S4 summarises the information about cross-border transport which is available from national statistical systems. Their coverage is incomplete - for example, they have no figures for the number of cross-border journeys made by car, bus or coach (estimates of these are produced by the Transport Model for Scotland - see Chapter 12).
7.2 Passengers to / from other parts of UK: In 2007, there were 20.8 million rail, air or ferry passenger journeys between Scotland and other parts of the UK (a return trip counts as two passenger journeys). Compared with 1998, when there were only 16.5 million such passenger journeys, this was an increase of 26 per cent. Since 1998, the number of passenger journeys by air has increased by 40 per cent, compared with relatively little change in rail and ferry numbers.
7.3 Passenger journeys to / from other countries: In 2008, there were 10.43 million passenger journeys to or from Scotland to other countries, almost all by air. This was a slightly down on 2007, when there were 10.47 million passenger journeys. The number of passenger journeys has more than doubled from 1998 when the figure was 4.88 million.
7.4 Freight to / from other parts of UK: In 2007, 41.1 million tonnes of freight were lifted by either road, rail or water and delivered to other parts of the UK. This was an increase of 4 per cent over 2006 when 39.5 millions of tonnes of freight were lifted. Freight delivered to Scotland from other parts of the UK in 2007 was 30.0 million tonnes. This was an increase of 11 per cent on 2006 when 27.0 million tonnes were delivered.
7.5 Freight to / from other countries: In 2007, 46.7 million tonnes of freight were delivered outside the UK, almost all of which was carried by water. This was an increase of 4 per cent on 2006 when 44.9 million tonnes of freight were lifted. Freight delivered to Scotland from outside the UK in 2007 was 15.3 million tonnes, again almost all by water transport - a decrease of 18 per cent (18.6 million tonnes in 2006).
8. Notes, Sources and Further Information - historical
8.1 In general, notes, definitions and sources appear in the relevant chapters. Information here relates to historical trends.
8.2 Occasionally, figures given for Great Britain (or the UK) are on a different basis from the figures for Scotland. Such differences in the bases of the figures for Scotland and GB/ UK should not prevent their use in a broad comparison of the trends.
8.3 Motor vehicles, the road network, traffic, toll bridges and road casualties
8.3.1 Vehicles Licensed: (Chapter 1). The figures for 1962 to 1974 represented the numbers of licences current at any time during the third quarter. They were derived from an annual census which used the records held by local licensing authorities. The method underlying the census then changed as vehicle records were gradually transferred from local taxation offices to the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Centre. Consequently, the figures for 1974 to 1978 are not comparable. No census results were available for 1977. Censuses based entirely on the record of licensed vehicles at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency ( DVLA) began on 31 December 1978 and subsequent counts were taken on the last day of each year up to and including 31 December 1992.
Thereafter, the source of this information changed to the Vehicle Information Database ( VID) held by what is now the Department for Transport (DfT). The results conform to the same definitions as earlier vehicle censuses, but, for technical reasons, are considered slightly more reliable than earlier estimates. Some vehicles have complicated licensing histories that may include incidents such as cheques failing to clear, changes of taxation status, late payments, and one or more valid or invalid refund claims. The VID undertakes a more detailed examination of licensing history than earlier vehicle census analyses and is therefore able to provide better estimates of licensed stock. The net effect of the change to the VID as the main source of statistics on currently licensed stock was to produce a small reduction in the estimated levels of licensed stock. The difference between the two sources can be broadly estimated from statistics for 1992 which are available from both the old and new sources.
The VID figures for all vehicles licensed at the end of 1992 are 2.4 per cent lower for Scotland, and 3.1 per cent lower for England and Wales, than the DVLA figures for the same date. For example, the VID figure for Scotland for 31 December 1992 is 1,840,000 compared with the DVLA figure of 1,884,000. To estimate the growth in the number of licensed vehicles over the longer term, these changes should be used to adjust the apparent vehicle growths calculated from figures which are on different bases pre- and post-1992.
8.3.2 Car Traffic on major roads: Chapter 6 describes the methods used to estimate the volume of car traffic on major roads in Scotland for 1983 and subsequent years. As those methods cannot be used to estimate car traffic in Scotland for earlier years, the then Scottish Executive had to make ad-hoc estimates for the years from 1975 to 1982. These ad-hoc estimates were calculated using the rate of change in the volume of traffic for Great Britain as a whole, adjusted to take account of changes in the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland relative to the number for Great Britain as a whole. The estimates for 1975 to 1982 therefore indicate the likely level of car traffic on major roads in Scotland in those years, and may well be considerably less accurate than the estimates for later years.
8.3.3 Toll Bridges: See Chapter 4. The Erskine Bridge opened on 2nd July 1971, so the figure for that year does not include a full year's contribution from that bridge. The figure for 1979 is also incomplete, because no vehicle crossings were recorded for the Erskine Bridge for about two months due to industrial action by the toll collectors.
8.4 Public transport (bus, rail, air and ferry)
8.4.1 Bus Passengers: Chapter 2 describes the method used to collect these statistics with effect from the 1985-86 financial year. A different method was used for 1984 and earlier years: the figures for 1975 to 1984 relate to calendar years and, prior to 1986, the term stage services was used (rather than local services). The figures for 1960 to 1974 are on a different basis: they were produced by adding together the total numbers of passenger journeys reported by the Scottish Bus Group (for calendar years) and the four city corporations (for financial years). They therefore include any non-local services run by these operators, and exclude any local (or stage) services that were run by other operators. In addition, it appears that the figures reported by the Glasgow city corporation may have included passenger journeys on trolley buses and on the Glasgow Underground.
8.4.2 Rail Passengers: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years. The figures for 1990-91 and earlier years were provided by British Rail after the end of each year; those for 1991-92 to 1999-2000 were provided by the Association of Train Operating Companies in Spring 2001. See also paragraph 4.2.2 for details of changes to Scotrail methodology.
8.5 Freight
8.5.1 Road Freight: Chapter 3 describes these statistics. There is a small discontinuity between the figures for 1986 and 1987: the former excludes freight whose destination is Northern Ireland, and the latter includes such freight. As Table 3.1 shows, the amount involved is a very small percentage of the total.
8.5.2 Rail Freight: See Chapter 8. The statistics relate to financial years with effect from 1985-86. The figure for 1984 is derived from a total for the fifteen-month period from 1 January 1984 to 31 March 1985, by scaling this down to an estimate for a twelve-month period. The figures for 1983 and earlier years are for calendar years.
8.5.3 Coastal shipping: The figures for Scotland cover freight on coastwise voyages for which either the origin or the destination (or both) is in Scotland - i.e. all coastwise freight lifted in Scotland plus the coastwise freight lifted elsewhere in the UK which is discharged in Scotland. This definition of coastal shipping excludes foreign, one port and inland waterway freight shipping. For historical reasons, the definition used for the coastal shipping series differs from the definitions which are used for the water transport statistics in chapter 10. There is a small discontinuity between 1981 and 1982, due to a change in definitions. The figures were provided by the Department for Transport - Margaret Talbot (tel: 0207 944 4131) can provide further information about them.
8.5.4 Coastwise Shipping: See Chapter 10. These figures are lower than the figures for coastal shipping, because the latter includes freight lifted elsewhere in the UK which is discharged in Scotland.
8.5.5 Pipelines: Apart from the figures for GB for 1993 and earlier years, the estimates are of the total carried by on-shore pipelines which are at least 50 km in length and which carry crude oil or products. (Length 50+ km is the definition which is used for international comparisons.) The figures for Scotland are the totals for pipelines which start in Scotland. The estimates are produced by the Department of Trade and Industry, based upon information which it obtains from pipeline operators. In cases where DTI cannot obtain any figures for the most recent year(s), it assumes (for the purpose of producing these estimates) that each of the pipelines concerned continued to carry the same amount as in the latest year for which a figure for it was provided to DTI. The estimates were supplied by DTI and Lisa Vine (tel: 0207 215 6072) can provide further information about them.