Scottish Government

Casualty Reduction Targets for 2020 and beyond

Figure 8 Progress towards the 2010 casualty reduction targets

(A) Reported killed or Seriously Injured casualties

(B) Reported child casualties Killed or Seriously Injured

(C) Slight casualties: rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres

2010 GB Casualty Reduction Targets

In March 2000, the UK Government, the then Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These targets (outlined in Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone) were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the following ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. They are based on the 1994 to 1998 annual average casualty levels and it is hoped that by 2010 there will be:

• a 40% reduction in those killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
• a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
• a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, (i.e. the number slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres).

The DfT will launch post 2010 GB targets within their Road Safety Strategy later this year. However the Scottish Road Safety Framework, published in June 2009, included Scotland-specific 2020 targets which will be adopted from 2010. These are discussed overleaf.

Progress towards the 2010 GB targets

Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010 and show figures so far, baseline averages, and the average reduction level likely required to achieve the targets. The target lines imply reductions greater than the following by the year 2008:

The 2008 figures relating to each target:

• 2,838 people were reported as killed or seriously injured in 2008, 41% (2,000) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838 - so the current reduction is greater than the 2010 target of a 40% fall.
• 297 children were reported as killed or seriously injured in 2008, 65% (545) below the 1994-98 average of 842, - a better reduction than the 2010 target of a 50% fall.
• The slight casualty rate of 28.64 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2008 was 38% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.42 - better than the 2010 target of a 10% fall

Killed or seriously injured - by mode of transport

As noted above (and shown in Figure 8), the relevant indicative target line figure for 2008 is 35.5% below the 1994-98 baseline average. Table I shows that, in 2008, the numbers of killed or seriously injured ( KSI) casualties for most modes of transport were well below this target line: some had bettered the 2010 target of a 40% reduction, with falls such as 49% for pedestrian KSI casualties and 46% for car KSI casualties. However, there was one exception: motorcycleKSI casualties rose by 21%.

Car users accounted for half of the 2,895 KSI casualties in 2008. The 2008 figure of 1,354 car KSI casualties was 46% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 2,501, and therefore better than the 2010 target of a 40% reduction. There were 703 pedestrianKSI casualties in 2008, 49% fewer than the annual average of 1,376 for the period 1994-98.

However, the number of motorcycleKSI casualties in 2008 was 430, an increase of 21% (75) from the 1994-98 average: apart from pedal cycles, this was the only category of road user for which the figure in 2008 was above the indicative target line. There were 163 pedal cycle KSI casualties, 34% below the 1994-98 average. There were 72 Goods vehicles KSI casualties, 58% below the 1994-98 average. The numbers of KSI casualties in 2008 were under 100 for the remaining categories of road user (bus/coach and others), and showed falls of 39% and 36%, respectively from the baseline average.

Child killed or seriously injured - by mode of transport

The indicative target line figure for 2008 is 44.8% below the 1994-98 average. The middle section of Table I shows that, in 2008, the figures for the three main categories of child road user casualty were all lower than the 2010 target of a 50% reduction.

About two-thirds of the 297 children killed or seriously injured ( KSI) in 2008 were pedestrians. The number of child pedestrian KSI casualties in 2008 was 197, 365 (65%) below the 1994-98 average of 562, and therefore better than the 2010 target of a 50% reduction. There were 68 child car KSI casualties in 2008, a fall of 77 (53%) from the 1994-98 average of 145, and therefore better than the target. Child pedal cycle KSI casualties in 2008 were also lower than the target: there were 20, a reduction of 80% from the 1994-98 average of 100. There are few child KSI casualties for other modes of transport, so small fluctuations in their numbers can cause apparently large percentage changes from the 1994-98 baseline average levels.

Slightly injured casualties - by mode of transport

By 2008, the indicative target line has a reduction of 8.6% in the slight casualty rate. Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table I shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate.

Reductions in slight casualties were better than the 2010 reduction target (of 10%) across most categories of road users. Almost two-thirds of slight casualties in 2008 were car users. The total number of car user slight casualties in 2008 was 8,312, 23% below the 1994-98 average of 10,859, and therefore better than the 2010 target fall of 10%.

There were 1,886 slight pedestrian casualties 37% less than the 1994-98 average of 3,009, (again a better reduction that the 2010 target). Bus and coach user slight casualties totalled 525 in 2008, 42% fewer than the 1994-98 average, pedal cyclist slight casualties (562) were 46% below the baseline average, goods vehicle user slight casualties (468) were 20% below the baseline average and other road user slight casualties (374) were 25% less. However, there was a rise in motorcyclist slight casualties (611 in 2008, 5% above the 1994-98 average).

Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets

The indicative target lines shown in Figure 8

One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 1996 and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the target for 2010. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 1996 as that is the middle year of the baseline period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2010.

Table I: Reported killed and seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

Reported child killed and seriously injured casualties by mode of transport

Reported slight casualties by mode of transport

1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport
3. A percentage change is not shown if the baseline figure is small.

The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8 involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 1996. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.58% p.a. for killed or seriously injured casualties; 4.83% p.a. for child killed or seriously injured casualties; and 0.75% p.a. for the slight casualty rate).

Other statistics for monitoring progress

Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area for the first two targets (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past 10 years and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the third target, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force area related to all three targets. In addition, many other tables include the 1994-98 baseline averages.

Scotland specific 2020 Targets

Scotland's Road Safety Framework was launched in June 2009. It set out the vision for road safety in Scotland, the main priorities and issues and included Scotland-specific targets and milestones which will be adopted from 2010.

Each reduction target will be assessed against the 2004/08 average. In addition to the targets a 10% reduction target in the slight casualty rate will continue to be adopted.

The 4 main targets differ to previous targets in that deaths have been separated out from serious injuries as, in recent years, trends have been different - serious injuries falling steadily but deaths declining at a lower rate.

The targets are deliberately challenging, particularly for child deaths as Scotland's record for child deaths is proportionately worse than that of England and Wales. The (child fatality) target itself will be monitored using a 3 year rolling average due to the small numbers involved.

To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table show the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets above.