Scottish Government

Commentary

Figure 1 Reported accidents by severity, 1966 to 2008

1. Trends in the reported numbers of Injury Road Accidents and Casualties

1.1 Main Points

Table 1 shows the long-term trends in the reported numbers of injury road accidents and casualties, the population of Scotland, the number of vehicles licensed, the length of the road network and the volume of traffic. Information on the severities of the accidents, and of the injuries suffered by the casualties, is provided in Table 2. The numbers of injury road accidents were first recorded separately in 1966, while the numbers of casualties are available back to 1938. Figures 1 to 7 illustrate the trends in the reported numbers of injury road accidents and casualties including (in some cases) indications of the likely range of random year-to-year variations (see section 1.4). As mentioned in the introduction, injury accidents not reported by the public to the police won't appear in the returns.

Accidents

• In 2008, there were 245 fatal accidents, 10 (4%) less than in 2007, the lowest number since the current records began in 1970.
• Serious injury accidents in 2008 rose by 187 (9%) to 2,236 - the second lowest number since the records began in 1970.
• Slight injury accidents fell by 533 (5%) in 2008 to 9,668 - the lowest number since records began.

Casualties

• There were 270 people killed in road accidents in Scotland in 2008, 11 (or 4%) less than in 2007 and the lowest since current records began in 1950.
• 2,568 people were seriously injured in road accidents in 2008, 183 (or 8%) more than in 2007 - the second lowest number since records began.
• 12,738 people were slightly injured in road accidents in 2008 , 833 (or 6%) fewer than in 2007 - the lowest figure since 1953.
• There were a total number of 15,576 casualties in 2008 - 661 (or 4%) less than in 2007 - the lowest figure since 1950.

The reductions in the numbers of accidents and casualties in recent years are even more significant given the rise in vehicle and subsequent traffic. E.g. in 2008 the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland was about a third higher than in 1998 and traffic on Scottish roads was estimated to have grown by about a seventh since 1998.

1.2 Reported Accidents

In 1966 there were just over 23,200 injury road accidents and the annual total remained around this level until 1973. Numbers then dropped considerably in 1974 and 1975 to about 20,600. This was the time of a fuel crisis when a national speed limit of 50 mph was introduced and the volume of traffic in Great Britain fell by 3% in 1974. Accident numbers increased again in 1976 and reached a peak of nearly 23,100 in 1979.

In the early 1980s numbers began to fall, and did so particularly sharply in 1983 when the total number of injury accidents fell by 7% in a single year to 19,400, serious accidents fell by 13% to just over 6,400, and fatal accidents fell by 11% to 568. The 1981 Transport Act came into force in 1983 and changed the law relating to drink driving, with the introduction of evidential breath testing. Compulsory front seat belt wearing and new procedures for licensing learner motor cyclists were also introduced in 1983. After 1983 the total number of injury accidents increased again to over 20,600 in 1985, and the number of serious accidents rose to just over 6,500 while fatal accidents continued to fall.

By 1987 the total number of injury accidents had fallen to under 18,700, but in 1989 it rose to just over 20,600. 1989 was the most recent peak in the total number of injury accidents. Since 1989, the total number of injury accidents has fallen in 15 out of 18 years, and in 2008 it was at the lowest level ever recorded. The 2008 figure of 12,149 was 356 less than in 2007.

Since the late 1980s, the number of fatal accidents has fallen considerably e.g. from 517 in 1987 to 245 in 2008. For serious accidents, the trend has also been downwards. The number of serious accidents has fallen e.g. from 5,814 in 1989 to 2,236 in 2008 - the second lowest number ever recorded. The numbers of slight accidents have not changed as much over the years: oscillating between 12,000 and 15,000 from 1970 to 1998. The most recent peak level was 14,443 in 1990. However, they fell below 12,000 in 1999, and the 2008 figure of 9,668 was the lowest since slight accident numbers were first recorded in 1970.

1.3 Reported Casualties

As the numbers of accidents have fallen, so have the numbers of casualties. Therefore, this section does not repeat the previous section's detailed analysis of how the numbers have changed.

Numbers killed

In 2008 there were 270 road accidents fatalities in Scotland in, a decrease of 4% on 2007. This was the lowest figure recorded. With a few exceptions, figures fell in each year since 1978, showing a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. Since then, figures have been fluctuating around a less pronounced downwards trend. The number in 2008 was 8% below the average for the previous five years (292).

Numbers seriously injured

In 2008 there were 2,568 people seriously injured in road accidents: 183 (8%) more than in 2007. This is the second lowest number since records began in 1950. The long term trend shows that the number of serious casualties peaked in the early 1970's at around 10,000 and generally fell since the early 1980's. However, there has been some fluctuation around the long-term downwards trend, and appeared to level-off: 1996, 1997 and 1998 were around 4,050. But the downward trend subsequently resumed.

Numbers slightly injured

In 2008 there were 12,738 people slightly injured, 833 (6%) fewer than in 2007, and the lowest number since 1953. Between 1970 and 1990, the figures fluctuated between 17,000 and 21,000. The fall between 1990 and 1995 was followed by an apparent levelling-off at around 17-18,000 in each of the years from 1996 to 1999, could have been a continuation of that pattern. However, 2000 to 2008 showed consecutive falls suggesting a continuing downward trend.

Total numbers of casualties

In 2008 there was a total of 15,576 casualties, 661 (4%) fewer than in 2007 (The lowest number since 1950). Between about 1970 and 1990, the figures fluctuated around a general downward trend. Subsequently, the casualty figures fell markedly from the level of the most recent short-term peak (over 27,000 in both 1989 and 1990), before appearing to level off. However, as the totals for 1999 to 2008 were all under 21,100, with falls each year, it appears that the downward trend has resumed.

Government targets for reductions in the numbers of road accident casualties

In 1987 the Government adopted a target to reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000. The number of people killed on the roads in Scotland in 2000 was 49% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 was exceeded for fatalities. For seriously injured casualties, the 2000 figure was 57% below the 1981-85 average, so the target was bettered for seriously injured casualties. However, the figure of 16,618 slight casualties in 2000 was only 9% below the 1981-85 average and so the target of a one-third reduction was not achieved for slight casualties. And, the total number of casualties in 2000 was 24% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore the target of a one-third reduction in the total number of casualties was not met.

In March 2000, the UK Government, the then Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010 .

A separate section on the casualty reduction targets for 2010 (which appears after this Commentary) provides statistics related to these targets, plus a selection of key points. It contains charts and tables for each of the three targets showing the main trends in casualty numbers in comparison to the 1994-98 baseline averages, and to the numbers that might be expected in each year if the targets were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year.

Figure 2 Scottish fatal reported road accidents: 1972 onwards
showing likely range of values (see text) around 5-year moving average

Figure 3 Scottish reported road accident deaths: 1949 onwards
showing likely range of values (see text) around 5-year moving average

1.4 The likely range of random year-to-year variation in some road accident and casualty numbers for Scotland as a whole(see Figures 2 to 5)

Because road accidents may occur at random, the numbers of accidents, and the numbers of casualties in those accidents, can fluctuate from year to year. Figures 2 to 5 show, for Scotland as a whole, the numbers of:

• fatal road accidents (1972 to 2008);
• road deaths (1949 to 2008);
• people killed or seriously injured (1950 to 2008);
• children killed or seriously injured (1981 to 2008).

The number of years covered by each chart reflects the availability of the relevant figures. The black dots are the values in each year, and the black lines indicate the year-to-year variation. The grey dashed lines show the likely range of random year-to-year variation in the figures: based on statistical theory, one would expect that only about 5% of years would have figures outwith these ranges. Annex G describes how these ranges were produced: the limits of the likely ranges of values are calculated in a similar way to 95% confidence intervals. It also explains why they cannot be produced for all years.

Fatal accidents, and deaths in road accidents (see Figures 2 and 3)

Figures 2 and 3 show that the number of fatal accidents is within its likely range of values in every year, and the number of road deaths is within its likely range of values in all but three years. These results are reasonable: one would expect a few years' figures to be outside the likely range of random year-to-year variation, given that there are over 30 years' figures for fatal accidents and over 50 years' figures for road accident deaths. Figures 2 and 3 therefore show that, despite the large percentage changes such as the falls in deaths of 19% between 1998 and 1999, and of 13% between 2001 and 2002, the figures almost always remain within the expected ranges. Hence, one should not put too much weight on a single large percentage change.

Children killed or seriously injured (see Figure 5)

Figure 5 shows that the year-to-year fluctuations in the numbers of children killed or seriously injured (for the years for which figures are readily available) are generally within the expected ranges. The exceptions are around 1994, when health boards' policies changed, with the result that more child casualties were admitted to hospitals for overnight observation. This changed the classification of many injuries from slight to serious.

When changes in operational practice or to administrative processes have a marked effect on the statistics, the resulting year-to-year changes can be much greater than those expected to arise due to normal random year-to-year variation - so it is not surprising that there are figures outwith the expected ranges around 1994.

Killed or seriously injured ( KSI) casualties (see Figure 4)

Figure 4 has many years' figures (around a third) outwith the calculated likely range of values. The reason for this is that statistical variability is not the only reason for year-to-year changes - other factors have contributed to sharp falls and rises in KSI casualty numbers. For example, the sharp fall shown in 1983 may be partly due to the introduction of seat belt wearing (for drivers and front seat passengers in most cars and light vans). Similarly, the sharp rise in 1994 may be due in part to the change in hospital practices referred to earlier.

Figure 4 Killed and seriously injured reported casualties
showing likely range of values (see text) around 5-year moving average

In effect, such factors change the underlying rate of occurrence of accidents and/or casualties, and therefore, in effect, introduce a break into the series of moving average values. The method used to calculate the likely range of random variation cannot take account of the effect of such changes.

Only Figure 4 has figures outwith the calculated interval due to the likely ranges of random year-to-year variation calculated for small numbers being quite wide in percentage terms. This is because, for a Poisson process (see Annex G), by definition, the greater the frequency of occurrence of events, the smaller the proportion that the standard deviation of the frequency (which is the square root of that number) represents of that number. For example:

• with 100 cases, the square root is 10 - or 10% of the value;
• with 400 cases, the square root is 20 - 5% of the value;
• with 10,000 cases, the square root is 100 - only 1% of the value.

As a result, if a factor (like the introduction of the compulsory wearing of front seat belts) were to cause the same percentage fall in each of the four types of accident and casualty numbers used in the charts, the following might be observed. The percentage fall could be within the relatively wide percentage range of likely random variation around the smaller numbers, but outwith the relatively narrow percentage range of likely random variation around the larger numbers. The ranges in Figures 2, 3 and 5 appear to be sufficiently wide to encompass the effects of changes such those mentioned above. (That is, the effects of the changes in their first years may fall within the likely range of random variation.

Of course, over the longer-term, such changes should make significant contributions to the reductions in casualty numbers and their severity.) However, the intervals in Figure 4 include a much smaller than expected proportion of the figures. This is because the likely range of random variation for KSI casualties represents only a small percentage of the total, and factors like those mentioned above appear to have had a greater percentage effect than that in their first years.

2. Reported Accidents

2.1 Accidents by road type and severity (see Table 4)

Table 4 shows separate figures for trunk roads and for local authority roads. Trunk roads accounted for only small proportions of the total numbers of accidents in 2008: 25% of fatal accidents, 15% of serious accidents, and 17% of all accidents. The trunk road network's shares of accident numbers in previous years were broadly similar.

Accident trends for different types of road will be affected by developments in the surrounding area (new city and town bypasses, construction of new roads with high average traffic flows etc.) Therefore, figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of different types of road.

Several changes were made to the trunk road network with effect from 1st April 1996. Annex E refers to them, and explains why the 1994-98 averages for trunk roads and for local authority major roads have been calculated by counting accidents which occurred prior to 1st April 1996 on the basis of whether they occurred on roads which were part of the post- 1 April 1996 trunk road network.

Figure 5 Reported child casualties: killed or seriously injured
showing likely range of values (see text) around 5-year moving average

2.2 Accident rates (see Table 5)

Accident rates showing the number of accidents per 100 million vehicle kilometres are contained in parts ( b) and ( c) of table 5. These are calculated by dividing the numbers of accidents on each type of road by the estimated volumes of traffic on those roads, which were provided by the Department for Transport, and which are available for all types of road with effect from 1993. The five year average accident rates were calculated by dividing the total number of accidents which occurred in each five year period by the total of the estimated volumes of traffic for the same period, rather than by calculating the averages of the individual accident rates for the five years.

Accident rates have fallen markedly since the early 1990s. The overall fatal accident rate has dropped from 0.87 per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 1998 to 0.55 in 2008; the serious accident rate fell from 8.47 to 5.03; and the overall accident rate (all severities) reduced from 42.17 per 100 million vehicle kilometres to 27.32. Motorways had consistently lower accident rates than A roads. Leaving aside the relatively low rate for fatal accidents, minor roads (taken together as a group) tend to have higher accident rates than major roads, and accident rates tend to be higher for built-up roads (roads with speed limits of up to 40mph) than for non built-up roads (ones with higher speed limits).

Part (c) of the table shows that estimated accident rates vary considerably by police force area. Some of this variation may be attributed to the distribution of traffic by road type within individual areas.

2.3 Accidents by month by road type ( see Table 6)

The numbers of injury accidents over the years 2004-2008 were fairly evenly spread throughout the year, with minor peaks in August, September and November. Serious accidents varied more between the months, and their peak, which occurred in September, was 12% above the monthly average. (Months are standardised to 30 days to allow comparison)

On average, there were 22 fatal accidents per month in the years 2004 to 2008. The number did not vary greatly between the months: the lowest average was 17, and the highest was 27.

2.4 Accidents by light condition and road surface condition(see Table 7)

The light and road surface conditions and the type of road (e.g. built-up) contribute to the severity of an accident. Severity rates are higher on non built-up roads than on built-up roads, likely due to the higher average speed. Severity rates are also higher in darkness than in daylight, likely due to poorer visibility.

For example, taking the annual averages for 2004-2008, 5% of injury road accidents on non built-up roads in darkness (68 out of 1,451) resulted in one (or more) deaths compared with 1.5% of accidents on built-up roads in darkness (34 out of 2,294) and 3.4% of accidents on non built-up roads in daylight (119 out of 3,468). Similarly, the percentage of accidents classified as serious is higher for built-up roads in darkness than for built-up roads in daylight.

Figure 6 Reported casualties: Total and Slightly injured - from 1950

Severity rates did not appear to be higher when the road surface condition was wet, damp or flooded, or affected by snow, frost or ice. For example, taking the annual averages for 2004 to 2008, the percentage of accidents on non built-up roads classified as serious when the road surface condition was dry was 22.9% (515 out of 2,249) compared with 18.6% (431 out of 2,321) when the surface was wet and 15.3% (52 out of 340) when it was affected by snow, frost or ice.

2.5 Car driver accident rates (see Table 18)

This table includes all car drivers involved in injury accidents regardless of whether they were injured or not, on the basis of whatever information is known about their ages and their sex. For example, someone whose sex was known, but whose age was not known, will be included in the all ages total for the appropriate sex. The grand total includes those for whom neither the age nor the sex was known.

As the car driver accident rates that are shown for each sex and age group are on a per head of population basis, rather than being based upon the numbers of driving licence holders or upon the distance driven, they can provide only a general indication of the relative accident rates for each group. The statistics do not provide a measure of the relative risk of each group as car drivers, because they do not take account of the differing levels of car driving by each group.

Age & Gender

Car driver accident rates per head of population vary markedly by age and sex. In 2008, the overall rate was 3.5 per thousand population aged 17+. The peak occurs for males in the 17-22 age group, with a rate of 8.0 per thousand population in 2008. This rate is almost double those of females of the same age (4.6 per thousand in 2008), and males aged 30-59 (4.4 per thousand in 2008).

The overall male car driver accident rate in 2008 (4.4 per thousand) was less than in the previous year, and this was the case for each of the age groups. The overall female car driver accident rate in 2008 (2.5 per thousand) was slightly lower than the previous year. The rates for the age groups, apart from 30-59, were all slightly lower than the previous year.

Between 1998 and 2008, the male car driver accident rate fell from 7.0 to 4.4 per thousand population, whereas the female car driver accident rate tended to remain around 3.0 per thousand population (although declining slightly) for most of the period - it was only 2.5 per thousand in 2008. As a result, the overall, ratio of male to female car driver accident rates has fallen from 2.1 : 1 for 1998 to 1.7 : 1 in 2008.

3. Reported Casualties

3.1 Casualties by type of road ( see Table 23)

In 2008, non built-up roads accounted for two-fifths of the total number of casualties (43%: 6,628 out of 15,576). However, perhaps because average speeds are higher on non built-up roads than elsewhere, they accounted for three quarters of those killed (70%: 188 out of 270) and for just under half of the total number of seriously injured (47%: 1,219 out of 2,568).

Compared with 1998, the fall in the total number of casualties has been slightly greater for built-up roads (33%) than elsewhere (27%). The difference in the numbers killed on built up roads is also higher than those on non built-up ones (down by 35% for built-up roads compared with a reduction of 27% elsewhere). Over the years, some traffic will have been transferred away from built-up roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of non built-up roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, these figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of built-up and non built-up roads.

3.2 Casualties by mode of transport(see Table 23)

A total of 9,666 car users were injured in road accidents in 2008, representing 62% of all casualties. Of these car users, 153 died. There were 2,589 pedestrian casualties (17% of the total), of whom 60 died, 725 pedal cycle casualties (5% of the total), of whom 9 died, and 1,041 motorcycle casualties (7% of the total), of whom 34 died. Because of the numbers of car user, pedestrian, pedal cyclist and motorcyclist casualties, the figures for each of these four groups of road users are the subject of separate sections, which follow this one, and are followed by a section on child casualties, which gives details of their modes of transport. Together, all the modes of transport other than the four mentioned above accounted for 1,555 casualties in 2008 (10% of the total), and for smaller percentages of the numbers of seriously injured. These included 584 bus and coach users injured in 2008, of whom 58 suffered serious injuries (one died) - these low proportions presumably being due to the greater protection of their passengers by buses and coaches. There were also 349 casualties who were travelling in light goods vehicles, 191 people in heavy goods vehicles, 177 users of taxis, 58 users of minibuses and 196 people with another means of transport.

3.3 Car user casualties

A total of 9,666 car users were injured in road accidents in 2008, representing 62% of all casualties. Of these people, a total of 1,201 were seriously injured, 153 died. Non built-up roads accounted for over half of all car user casualties (55%: 5,343 out of 9,666). Perhaps because average speeds are higher on non-built up roads, they accounted for much higher percentages of the total numbers of car users who were killed (86%: 131 out of 153) or were seriously injured (71%: 855 out of 1,201). (see Table 23)

The number of car users killed in 2008 was 4% less than the 2007 figure. The number who were seriously injured rose by 8% and the total number of casualties of all severities was down by 4%. Since 1998, the number killed has dropped by 31%, and there have been falls of 45% in the number who were seriously injured and of 30% in the total number of car user casualties. (see Table 23)

Looking at annual averages over the years 2004-2008, the seriously injured casualty rate for 16-22 year old car users was 0.70 per thousand population. This was much higher than the rate for car users in the older age groups, which varied from 0.18 to 0.39 per thousand population. (see Table 32)

Figure 7 Reported casualties: 5 year moving average (1947/51 to 2004/08)

On average, over the years 2004-2008, 75% of car user fatalities occurred on roads with a speed limit of 60mph. Such roads accounted for 62% of those car users who were seriously injured, but for only 43% of the total number of car user casualties (of all severities). (see Table 33)

Adult car users

On weekdays, the peak time for adult car user casualties was from 4pm to 6pm. The 5pm to 6pm average of 619 (the annual average for the years 2004-2008) was 20% higher than the average of 516 in the morning 8am to 9am peak. (see Table 28)

Adult car user casualties varied by month, with fewer in the months of March and April and more between October and December. The peak month was December, which had 18% more adult car user casualties than the lowest month, March (annual averages over the years 2004-2008; months standardised to 30 days). (see Table 29)

Friday had the peak numbers of adult car user casualties over the years 2004-2008 with 10% more than the average daily number of adult car user casualties. (see Table 30)

3.4 Pedestrian casualties

There were 2,589 pedestrian casualties in 2008: 17% of all casualties. Of these, 643 were seriously injured (60 died). Presumably because of the greater vulnerability of pedestrians, a high proportion (25%) of the total number of people who were seriously injured were pedestrians. In addition, 25% of pedestrian casualties were seriously injured (643 out of 2,589) compared with 16% of all casualties (2,568 out of 15,576). About 95% of pedestrian casualties occurred on built-up roads (2,465 out of 2,589). Perhaps because of higher average speeds on non built-up roads, 34% of the pedestrian casualties on such roads were seriously injured (42 out of 124) compared with 24% on built-up roads (601 out of 2,465). (see Table 23)

The number of pedestrians seriously injured in 2008 was 8% more than 2007 and the overall number of pedestrian casualties was 4% less. Since 1998, the number of pedestrians killed has fallen by 38%, the number who were seriously injured has dropped by 39%, and there has been a 36% reduction in the total number of pedestrian casualties. Looking at the annual average for the period 2004 to 2008, the pedestrian fatality rate was higher for those aged 70+ (0.04 per thousand population) than for any other age-group. However, the 12-15 age-group had the highest 'serious' and 'all severities' pedestrian casualty rates (0.36 and 1.74 per thousand population, respectively). The corresponding casualty rates for the 5-11 age-group were slightly lower. (see Tables 23 & 32)

The overall pedestrian 'all severities' casualty rate for males was 0.69 per thousand population, compared with 0.43 per thousand for females, using the averages for the period 2004 to 2008. (see Table 34)

Adult pedestrian casualties

On average, in the period 2004 to 2008, on weekdays, the peak time for adult pedestrian casualties was from 4pm to 6pm; at weekends it was from midnight to 2am. (see T able 28)

November and December were the peak months for adult pedestrian casualties, with each having 23-26% more than the monthly average. Adult pedestrian casualties in the four winter months, November to February, were 17% more than the monthly average (annual averages over the years 2004-2008; months standardised to 30 days). (see Table 29)

Friday and Saturday have the highest numbers of adult pedestrian casualties; respectively 23% and 18% more than the daily average over the period 2004 to 2008. (see Table 30)

3.5 Pedal Cycle Casualties

There were 725 pedal cycle casualties in 2008, 11 more than the previous year. The number of seriously injured pedal cycle casualties in 2008 was 154, 5% more than in 2007. There were 9 pedal cycle fatalities in 2008, 5 higher than in 2007. Since 1998 there has been a 36% reduction in all pedal cycle casualties, the number who were seriously injured has fallen by 22%, and the number of fatalities has fluctuated between 4 and 16. In 2008, 88% of pedal cycle casualties were on built-up roads. (see Table 23)

In terms of the averages for the period 2004 to 2008, the pedal cycle casualty rate per head of population was highest for those aged 12-15 (0.33 per thousand population) and 5-11 (0.29 per thousand). The other age groups with above-average casualty rates were: 16-22, 23-29 and 30-39. Of course, it must be remembered that, as noted earlier, per capita casualty rates do not provide a measure of the relative risk, because they do not take account of the levels of usage of (in this case) pedal cycles. (see Table 32)

Adult pedal cycle casualties

Using the averages for the period 2004 to 2008, on weekdays, the peak numbers of adult pedal cycle casualties were from 4pm to 6pm and from 8 am to 9 am. At weekends the numbers were smaller, and there was no clear peak. (see Table 28)

The peak month of the year for adult pedal cycle casualties was August, which was 24% more than the monthly average (2004-2008 annual averages standardised to 30 days). (see Table 29)

The day of the week with the peak numbers of adult pedal cycle casualties was Wednesday, 30% higher than the daily average, over the years 2004-2008. There were substantially fewer adult pedal cycle casualties on Saturday and Sunday, with 39% and 34% less than the daily average respectively. (see Table 30)

3.6 Motorcyclist casualties

A total of 1,041 motorcyclists were injured in road accidents in 2008, representing 7% of all casualties. Of these, 396 were seriously injured and 34 died. Just under half of all motorcyclist casualties occurred on non built-up roads but (perhaps because of their higher average speeds) such roads accounted for over half of those seriously injured, and four fifths of those killed. (see Table 23)

The number of motorcyclist casualties in 2008 was 2% fewer than in the previous year. The number killed fell by 6 and the number seriously injured increased by 15. Over the period since 1998, the total number of motorcyclist casualties rose in each of the next five years to a peak in 2001; since then, it has tended to decline. As a result, the figure for all casualties in 2008 was 7% higher than in 1998. one more motorcyclist died in 2008 than in 1998. (see Table 23)

On average, over the years 2004 to 2008, the motorcyclist casualty rate was highest for the 16-22 and 30-39 year old age groups (0.46 and 0.39 per thousand population respectively), followed by the 23-29 and 40-49 age groups (both 0.33 per thousand population); other age-groups had much smaller casualty rates. (see Table 32)

Looking at the averages for the period 2004 to 2008, the peak time of day for adult motorcyclist casualties was 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. on weekdays (see T able 28), the peak months of the year were June and August, with relatively high numbers in the other months from May to September (see Table 29) and there were more casualties on Sundays than on any of the other days (see Table 30).

3.7 Child casualties

There were 1,689 child casualties in 2008, representing 11% of the total number of casualties of all ages. Of the child casualties, 277 were seriously injured, and 20 died (see Table 24).

There were 11 more children killed in 2008 than in 2007 and a rise of 3% in the number of children seriously injured. The total number of child casualties fell by 7%. Since 2004, the number of children killed has risen by 8, there has been a reduction of 26% in child seriously injured casualties, and a 29% fall in the total number of child casualties. (see Table 25)

In terms of the averages for the period 2004 to 2008, on weekdays, the peak time for child casualties was from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m., with 28% of all weekday casualties in those two hours. A further 27% occurred in the three hours between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. There was a smaller peak in the morning, between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. There was no real clear peak at weekends: the numbers of casualties were very broadly the same each hour from 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. (see Table 27)

August was the peak month for child casualties, with 21% more than in an average month. June and September had 8% and 11% respectively more than an average month. (2004-2008 annual averages standardised to 30 days). (see Table 29)

Using the averages for 2004 to 2008, Friday was the peak day of the week for child casualties, with 20% more than an average day. Sunday, on the other hand, had 22% less than an average day. (see Table 30)

Child casualties by mode of transport

In 2008, there were 830 child pedestrian casualties. They accounted for 32% of all pedestrian casualties of all ages (830 out of 2,589). Of the child pedestrian casualties, 193 were seriously injured (4 died). (see T able 24)

There were 149 child pedal cycle casualties in 2008 (21% of the total of 725 pedal cycle casualties of all ages). The child pedal cycle casualties included 18 who were seriously injured and 2 who died. (see Table 24)

In 2008, there were 569 child casualties in cars, 6% of the total number of car user casualties of all ages (569 out of 9,666). Of the child casualties in cars, 55 were seriously injured (13 died). (see Tables 23 and 25)

Child casualty rates (per head of population)

Children's casualty rates (per head of population) increase with age: using the averages for the years 2004-2008 taken together, for children aged 0-4 the rate was 0.97 per thousand population, whereas it was 2.30 per thousand for those aged 5-11 and for the 12-15 age group it was 3.32 per thousand. The pedestrian casualty rate for younger children (0-4 years) was less than a third of those for 5-11 and just over a fifth of the 12-15 year old rate. (see T able 32)

The pedestrian casualty rate for boys in the 5-11 age group was almost twice that for girls. The difference between the sexes was even more pronounced in the case of the driver or rider casualty rates, particularly for the 12-15 age group. (see Table 34)

The overall child pedestrian casualty rates for seriously injured and for all severities, at 0.24 and 1.08 per thousand child population respectively, were both roughly double the corresponding rates for pedestrian casualties of all ages. (see Table 32)

3.8 Casualty rates for local authority roads by local authority area, and the likely range of random year-to-year variation in these figures (see Annex H)

There can be some large percentage year-to-year fluctuations in the numbers of some types of casualty for local authority areas. In order to illustrate this, the table and charts in Annex H were prepared in 2006 and published in Road Accidents Scotland 2005. They provide the following overall casualty rates (calculated per 100 million vehicle kilometres) for local authority roads in each local authority area for 2003:

• child killed and seriously injured casualty rate;
• (all ages) killed and seriously injured casualty rate;
• slight casualty rate

These figures were calculated (or taken) from the data in two of the tables in Road Accidents Scotland 2005:

• the numbers of children killed and seriously injured, and the total number of people killed and seriously injured - Table 40; and
• the number of slight casualties, the estimated volume of traffic (in millions of vehicle kilometres) and the resulting slight casualty rate - Table 41.

They have not been updated to take account of any subsequent revisions to the underlying data. The same applies to all the figures which are quoted in this section. The table in Annex H also shows the likely upper and lower limits of the ranges within which these casualty rates would be expected to fall, given the likely random statistical variation that might affect the number of casualties in that year. Based on statistical theory, one would expect that the actual figures would be outwith these ranges in only about 5% of cases. The text in Annex H describes how the ranges were calculated, using the annual averages for 2001 to 2005, as that is the five year period centred on 2003 (the year to which the casualty rates relate). That is why the table and charts are not for 2005: the calculation of ranges for 2005 would require the annual averages for 2003 to 2007. When the table and charts were prepared, 2005 was the latest year for which data were available.

The charts which accompany the Annex H table show the actual casualty rates for 2003, casualty rates based upon the 2001-2005 annual averages, and the likely ranges of values within which the 2003 rates might fall, given the likely levels of random statistical variation in that year (calculated from the 2001-2005 annual averages). The 2003 rates are identified by black diamonds, the rates based upon the 2001-2005 annual averages by small circles, and the likely ranges of values by the thin bars which extend to either side of the small circles. (In any case where the 2001-2005 annual average is zero, there is no likely range of values as, by definition, the value for 2003 could only be zero.) For example, the slight casualty rate chart shows that (for local authority roads in 2003):

• Shetland had the lowest slight casualty rate (22 per 100 million vehicle-kilometres) and Glasgow the highest (99 per 100 million vehicle kilometres), as can be seen from the table;
• in both these cases, as it happens, the actual figure for 2003 is near to the rate which is based on the 2001-2005 annual average value (Table 41 of Road Accidents Scotland 2005 showed that, in 2003, Shetland had more slight casualties than their 2001-2005 annual average numbers, whereas Glasgow had less than their 2001-2005 annual average numbers);
• Orkney and Eilean Siar had the widest likely ranges of values. This is due to their having relatively few slight casualties (2001-2005 annual averages of 42 and 54, respectively). The smaller the casualty numbers are, the greater in percentage terms the potential random year-to-year variation (this is discussed in Section 1.4 and Annex G). Edinburgh and Glasgow have much narrower likely ranges of values, because their numbers of slight casualties on local authority roads are much larger (2001-2005 annual averages of 1,575 and 2,088 respectively). The Scotland figure (at the foot of the chart) has a very narrow likely range of values, because it is based on an annual average of 12,927 in 2001-05.
• Few local authorities had slight casualty rates that were markedly outwith the likely range of values;
• Inverclyde was an exception: it had a slight casualty rate (48 per 100 million vehicle-kilometres) which was noticeably above the upper limit (of 45 per 100 million vehicle-kilometres) of the estimated likely range of values - in other words, the slight casualty rate that year was unusually high, compared with what would have been expected on the basis of the casualty numbers for the five-year period. Table 41 of Road Accidents Scotland 2005 showed that its number of slight casualties in 2003 was 211, compared with the annual average of 176 for the years 2001 to 2005.

4. Motorists, breath testing and drink-driving

4.1 Breath testing of drivers (see Tables 19, 20 and 21)

These tables cover all motorists who were known to be involved in injury road accidents (e.g. excluding those untraced drivers involved in hit and run accidents). Here, a motorist is defined as the driver or the rider of a motor vehicle (e.g. motorcycle)

In 2008, 61% of motorists involved in injury accidents were asked for a breath test (this ranged from 54% to around 81% across the police forces). The breath test proved positive (or the motorist refused to take the test) for 3.7% of those drivers breathalysed. This represented 2.2% of the total number of motorists involved (including those who were not asked for a breath test). There has been little variation over the past five years.

Tables 20 and 21 show the time and day of the accident ( Table 20) and for a number of years ( Table 21). Table 21 shows that, in 2008, 43% of the positive / refused cases occurred between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m.: 80 between 9 p.m. and midnight, plus 108 between midnight and 3 a.m., out of a total of 434. Table 20 shows that, using 2004 to 2008 averages, the number of positive / refused cases, expressed as a percentage of motorists involved in accidents, was highest (at around 16%) between midnight and 6 a.m., but varied depending upon the day of the week, from 11.5% (the average for 3 a.m. to 6 a.m. for Mondays to Thursdays) to 20.8% (3 a.m. to 6 a.m. on Saturdays). Table 20 shows that although the period from 9 p.m. to midnight had the second highest number of positive / refused cases, the equivalent percentages were not as high, because between 9 p.m. and midnight there were many more motorists involved in accidents than between midnight and 3 a.m.

4.2 Drink-drive accidents and casualties ( see Table 22)

Table 22 shows the estimates (made by the Department for Transport) of the numbers of injury road accidents involving illegal alcohol levels. They are higher than the number of drivers with positive breath test results (or who refused to take the breath test) because they include allowances for the numbers of cases where drivers were not breath tested because of the severity of their injuries, or because they left the scene of the accident. Information about the blood alcohol levels of road users who died within 12 hours of being injured in a road accident is supplied by the Procurators Fiscal.

The estimates show that the numbers of drink-drive accidents fell by 15% and the number of casualties by 23% between 1997 and 2007 (the latest year for which estimates are available): from about 790 to roughly 670 (accidents) and from around 1,220 to some 940 (casualties). While fluctuating from year to year, the number of people killed as a result of drink-drive accidents is estimated to have fallen slightly, from about 40 in 1997 to around 30 in 2007. The number of serious casualties is estimated to have dropped by over 48% (from roughly 290 in 1997 to some 150 in 2007).

5. Comparisons of Scottish figures against those of other countries

5.1 Casualty rates: against England & Wales ( see Tables C to F below)

Historically, killed and killed/seriously injured casualty rates per head of population in Scotland have been above those for England & Wales, whereas the total casualty rate is usually lower in Scotland than in England & Wales. In 2008, Scotland's casualty rates were 26% higher (killed), 16% higher for killed and serious and 24% lower (all severities). In all three cases, this represented a worsening of the position in Scotland relative to that in England & Wales (compared with the 1994-98 average).

Child rates

For years, the Scottish child casualty rates per head of population have been higher than those of England & Wales for killed and seriously injured and slightly lower for all severities. In 2008, the Scottish rates were 115% higher (killed) than those in England and Wales, 32% higher (killed and seriously injured) and 7% lower (all severities). In the case of fatal and serious and all severities, this represented an improvement in Scotland's figures relative to England & Wales (compared with the 1994-98 average).

It should be noted that the ratio of the fatality rates for Scotland and for England and Wales can fluctuate markedly from year to year, particularly for the child fatality rates due to the relatively small numbers in Scotland, (which may be subject to year-to-year changes which are large in percentage terms). Therefore, subsequent paragraphs do not refer to the fatality rates for children using different modes of transport. In addition, it should be remembered that the rates for some other sub-groups may be affected by year-to-year fluctuations: for example, the numbers are relatively small for most categories of child killed and seriously injured casualties in Scotland.

Mode of transport

The casualty rates of car users in Scotland have for many years been substantially higher than those of England & Wales for killed and killed and seriously injured casualties, while for all severities the rate has been much lower. In 2008, Scotland's car user fatality rate was 46% higher than that of England & Wales, the killed and seriously injured rate was 34% higher, while the all severity car user rate was 27% lower. For child car users, the killed and seriously injured rate was 81% higher in Scotland and the all severities rate was 22% less than that of England and Wales.

In 2008, the pedestrian killed and killed and serious rates per capita were both 24% higher in Scotland than England & Wales, and the all severities rate was 5% higher. The child pedestrian casualty rates in Scotland were 38% higher (killed and seriously injured) and 19% higher (all severities) than those for England & Wales.

Pedal cyclists casualty rates (all ages) in Scotland were substantially lower than in England & Wales in 2008 for killed and seriously injured (29% lower) and for all severities (51% lower). The child pedal cycle casualty all severities rate was also lower in Scotland than in England & Wales. These differences may reflect the fact that, according to the National Travel Survey, on average, people in Scotland do not travel as far by bicycle as people in England and Wales.

Further information about the numbers of casualties in England and Wales, and for Great Britain as a whole, can be found in Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008, which is published by the Department for Transport.

5.2 Road deaths: International comparison 2007 & 2008 (provisional) ( see Tables G and H)

Introduction

This section compares Scotland's road death rates in 2007 and 2008 (provisional) with the fatality rates of some countries in Western Europe and some developed countries world-wide. The comparisons involve a total of up to 41 countries (including Scotland, and counting each of the UK, Great Britain, England, Wales and Northern Ireland as an individual country). Some of the figures are not available for some of the countries. The fatality rates were calculated on a per capita basis (the statistics given are rates per million population), and the countries were then listed in order of their fatality rates in Table G sections (a), (b), (c) and (d). In cases where two countries appear to have the same rate, the order takes account of decimal places which are not shown in the tables. A table of car user fatality rates which were calculated on a per motor vehicle basis is no longer shown due to a lack of consistent data.

Tables G and H were provided by the Department for Transport, which obtained the figures for foreign countries from the International Road Traffic and Accident Database ( IRTAD) Web site, the address of which is: http://www.cemt.org/irtad/IRTADPUBLIC/.

In accordance with the commonly agreed international definition, most countries define a fatality as being due to a road accident if death occurs within 30 days of the accident. However, the official road accident statistics of some countries limit the fatalities to those occurring within shorter periods after the accident. The numbers of deaths, and the death rates, which appear in the IRTAD tables take account of the adjustment factors used by the Economic Commission for Europe and the European Conference of Ministers of Transport to represent standardised 30-day numbers of deaths.

Latest Results

In 2008, Scotland's provisional overall road death rate of 53 per million population was the ninth lowest of the 41 countries surveyed (counting each of Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland as a separate country, but not counting the overall GB and UK figures).

Pedestrians

However, Scotland's overall road safety position does not appear as good when the fatality rates of pedestrians are considered separately. In 2007, Scotland's pedestrian fatality rate was 12 per million population. Scotland ranked eighteenth of the 35 countries for which figures are available (again counting Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland separately, and again not counting the GB and UK figures).

Car Users

When the car user fatality rate is calculated on a per capita basis, Scotland has a low car user fatality rate (31 per million population: the ninth lowest of 31 countries, again not counting the GB and UK figures.

Age

The fatality rates per head of population for 26 countries (including Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland as separate countries, but not counting the overall GB and UK figures) are shown, for each of four broad age-groups, in Table H. Again, the ordering takes account of decimal places not shown in the table. In most cases, Scotland has one of the lowest rates per capita. However, the Scottish rate is in thirteenth place for child casualties aged 15-24. It was the third lowest for those aged 0-14 and the fourth lowest for both those aged 25-64 and those aged 65+ (in each case, not counting the overall GB and UK figures).

International comparisons of road safety are based on road death rates, as this is the only basis for which there is an international standard definition. As indicated above, the OECDIRTAD tables provide comparable figures for each country, after making adjustments to the data for countries which do not collect their figures on the standard basis. One should not try to compare different countries' overall road accident casualty rates (i.e. the total numbers killed or injured, relative to the population of each country) because there is no internationally-adopted standard definition of a injury road accident. There are considerable differences between countries in the coverage of their injury road accident statistics. For example, many countries count only accidents which result in someone being admitted to hospital - so their figures would not include the kinds of accident which, in Britain, are classified as causing only slight injuries or certain types of serious injury. Because many countries' definitions of injury road accidents are much narrower than the definition used in the UK, their reported numbers of injury road accidents will appear low relative to ours - so comparing the reported numbers of people injured in road accidents may provide a misleading impression of different countries' road safety records.

Table C: Reported casualties in Scotland, England & Wales by severity
Number of casualties : All ages and child casualties

Table D: Reported casualties in Scotland, England & Wales by severity
Rates per 1,000 population : All ages and child casualties

(1) Child 0-15 years

Table E: Reported casualties in Scotland, England & Wales by mode of transport and severity, 2008

Table F: Reported casualties in Scotland, England & Wales by mode of transport and severity, 2008
Rate per 1,000 population : All ages and child casualties

(1) Child 0-15 years

Table G: Fatality rates per capita, for (a) all road users 2008 (Provisional), (b) all road users 2007, (c) Pedestrians; and: (d) car users ranked by respective rates: International Comparisons ^(1,2)

(1) In accordance with the commonly agreed international definition, most countries define a fatality as one being due to a road accident where death occurs within 30 days of the accident. The official road accident statistics of some countries however, limit the fatalities to those occurring within shorter periods after the accident. Numbers of deaths and death rates in the above table have been adjusted according to the factors used by the Economic Commission for Europe and the International Transport Forum ( ITF) (formerly known as ECMT) to represent standardised 30-day deaths: Italy (7 days) +8%; France (6 days) +5.7%; Portugal (1 day) +14%; Republic of Korea (3 days) +15%.
(2) Source: International Road Traffic and Accident Database ( OECD), ETSC, EUROSTAT and CARE ( EU road accidents database).

Table G: Fatality rates per capita, for (c) Pedestrians and (d) Car users - 2007;

Table H: Road accident fatality rates per capita, by age group, ranked by respective rates - 2007