This Statistics Publication Notice presents national and Education Authority level information on the destinations of young people leaving Scottish schools (publicly funded and grant-aided secondary schools) and updates the publication "Destinations of Leavers from Scottish Schools: 2007/08". Data linking the destinations of school leavers to pupil characteristics, and limited information on leavers from independent secondary schools, is presented in the accompanying tables
The Statistics Publication Notice and accompanying tables can be found on the Scottish Government Web Site: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00774
This is the first publication of school leavers destinations which reflects the effects of the current recession. Fewer labour market opportunities might be expected to lead to greater demand for places in Higher and Further Education, or indeed to increased numbers of pupils staying on at school, and to lower proportions entering employment. Figures for 2008/09 bear these expectations out, with the proportion of leavers entering Higher or Further Education reaching its highest level in the years for which comparable figures are available, and the proportion entering employment reaching its lowest level. The proportion entering both unemployed categories together has increased by just over half a percentage point, reaching the highest level since 2003/04, but is still lower than in most years since 1992/93. Pupilswere also more likely to stay on at school, with provisional staying on rates rising significantly between 2008/09 and 2009/10.
The Main Findings for Leaver Destinations from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools are:
- 85.7 per cent per cent of 2008/09 school leavers are in positive destinations (higher education, further education, employment, voluntary work or training), down from 86.4 per cent in 2007/08 ( Table 1)
- Proportions entering higher or further education have increased by 3.8 and 2.2 percentage points since 2007/08, to reach 34.9 and 27.0 per cent respectively. Taken together, the proportion of young people entering further or higher education has risen from 55.9 per cent in 2007/08 to 61.9 per cent in 2008/09 ( Table 2)
- The proportion of leavers entering employment has decreased by around 7 percentage points to 18.4 per cent in 2008/09, the largest annual decrease since 1992/93 ( Table 2)
- The proportion who are unemployed and seeking employment or training has risen slightly from 10.9 per cent to 11.5 per cent ( Table 2)
- The proportion unemployed and not seeking employment or training has increased very slightly from 1.5 per cent in 2007/08 to 1.6 per cent in 2008/09 ( Table 2)
- Vulnerable school leavers, such as those from more deprived areas, with additional support needs, or looked after children, continue to be less likely to enter positive destinations ( Table 18)
- In order to provide context, it is useful to note that the number of school leavers is down by 9 per cent compared to 2007/08 ( Table 1). This is partly 1 a result of increasing staying on rates - the provisional S4 to S5 staying on rate to September of the following school year has increased by around 3 percentage points, while the provisional S4 to S6 staying on rate has increased by around 5 percentage points ( Table 4) ( see background note 2.8).
More detailed analysis of these destinations is presented in the following sections. Firstly, information is provided on leavers who enter positive destinations, as defined in the Scottish Budget Spending Review 2007 2. Positive destinations include higher education, further education, employment, voluntary work and training. The report then goes on to consider all other destinations and presents the results of an analysis of leaver destinations by gender, other pupil characteristics, and attainment of qualifications.
Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools who enter Positive Destinations
The proportion of school leavers entering positive destinations in 2008/09 is 85.7 per cent, down from 86.4 per cent in 2007/08. Girls (87.2 per cent) are more likely than boys (84.3 per cent) to enter positive destinations upon leaving school ( Table 1).
Analysis of change over time
From 2006/07 onwards it is possible to separately identify those entering voluntary work. As these leavers used to be included in the figures for unemployed not seeking work, data from years prior to 2006/07 is not directly comparable. However those entering voluntary work account for a very small proportion of all school leavers (0.2 per cent in 2008/09).
The proportion of school leavers entering full-time employment was 18.4 per cent in 2008/09, down nearly 7 percentage points compared to the 2007/08 figure of 25.3 per cent ( Table 2).
The proportion of school leavers entering training has remained at around 5 per cent since 2004/05. Although fewer young people aged 16-19 are in training than in recent years ( Table 7), this figure reflects the decrease in the number of school leavers in 2008/09.
Proportions entering higher or further education have increased by 3.8 and 2.2 percentage points since 2007/08, to reach 34.9 and 27.0 per cent respectively ( Table 2).
Chart 1: Positive destinations by gender, 2006/07 to 2008/09
Chart 2: Percentage of School Leavers Entering Higher Education, Further Education, Employment, Training or Voluntary Work: 1992/93 to 2008/09
Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools who enter Other Destinations
Other destinations include unemployed and seeking employment or training, unemployed and not seeking, and unknown. The unemployed and seeking employment and training category has increased by just over half a percentage point to 11.5 per cent, the highest rate since 2003/04 when it was 13.3 per cent ( Table 2). The unemployed and not seeking employment or training category (which included those entering voluntary work prior to 2006/07) has risen by about a tenth of a percentage point to 1.6 per cent in 2008/09 ( Table 2).
School leavers with an unknown destination may be in a positive destination. However analysis of the 2007/08 follow up survey 3 showed that around 55 per cent of leavers in 2007/08 with an unknown initial destination had a positive follow up destination in spring 2009, compared to around 85 per cent of all leavers. Nearly half were still in unknown destinations.
Chart 3: Percentage of School Leavers Entering Unemployed Seeking, Unemployed Not Seeking, Other Known or Unknown Destinations: 1992/93: 2008/09
Note: In 2002/03, the 'other known destinations' category was split into 'unemployed and seeking employment or training' and 'unemployed and not seeking employment or training'.
Unemployed and not seeking category included those entering voluntary work prior to 2006/07
Destinations of School Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools by Gender
Girls are more likely to enter further or higher education than boys after leaving school, while boys are more likely to enter the categories of training, employment or unemployed and seeking ( Table 3).
A similar pattern has been observed in previous years. After widening in 2006/07 compared to 2005/06, the gender gap has narrowed over the last two years. The proportion of boys entering employment is now 7 percentage points higher than the proportion of girls, compared with 11 percentage points higher in 2006/07. The proportion of girls entering further or higher education is just under 12 percentage points higher than the proportion of boys, compared with over 15 percentage points higher in 2006/07.
Chart 4: Percentage of School Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools by Destination and Gender: 2008/09
Destinations of School Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools by Stage of Leaving
Staying-on in school past the minimum leaving age is a good indicator that the young person will enter a positive destination upon leaving school. Over 93 per cent of school leavers who left at the end of S6 entered a positive destination, compared with around 75 per cent of those who left at the end of S4 ( Table 16). Staying on rates increased significantly between the 2008/09 school year and the start of the 2009/10 school year, after a number of years with little change ( Table 4). The provisional S4 to S5 staying on rate increased by around 3 percentage points, while the provisional S4 to S6 staying on rate increased by around 5 percentage points.
Chart 5: Staying on Rates to September of the School Year, 2000/01 - 2009/10 S4 to S5 and S4 to S6 rates
Destinations of School Leavers from Publicly Funded Secondary Schools by Other Characteristics
Analysis of school leaver characteristics and location help to identify the groups of young people who are at risk of not entering a positive destination when they leave school. Table 18 shows positive destinations by a variety of characteristics, while the tables referred to below show all destinations categories by the relevant characteristics. These tables also show the numbers associated with any characteristic, and where these numbers are small caution should be excercised when interpreting the results.
Those school leavers who live in large urban areas are less likely to enter a positive destination than those from more rural areas ( Table 8), although this may be linked to deprivation since many deprived areas are in urban locations.
Living in one of the most deprived areas, as defined by the 2009 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation ( SIMD) is a strong indicator that a school leaver is less likely to enter a positive destination. Around 75 per cent of school leavers from the ten per cent most deprived areas entered a positive destination compared with just over 93 per cent of those from the ten per cent least deprived areas. Similarly, around 14 per cent of those from the most deprived areas entered higher education, compared with over 61 per cent of those from the least deprived areas ( Table 9).
Leavers with Additional Support Needs ( ASN) are less likely to enter a positive destination than those without. Around 86 per cent of school leavers with no recorded ASN entered a positive destination compared with around 78 per cent of those with a Record of Needs ( RoN) or a Co-ordinated Support Plan ( CSP) and just under 70 per cent of those with an Individualised Educational Programme, but no RoN or CSP ( Table 10). Leavers with social, emotional or behavioural difficulties were the least likely to enter positive destinations at 55 per cent ( Table 11).
Leavers identified as being looked after at the time of the pupil census in their leaving year were less likely to enter positive destinations (55 per cent) ( Table 12), as were those who were identified as registered for free school meals in the census (71 per cent) ( Table 13).
In terms of ethnic background, Asian-Chinese leavers were most likely to enter positive destinations (96 per cent), followed by Asian-Indian (92 per cent) and Asian-Pakistani
(90 per cent). Those least likely to enter positive destinations were from the not known or not disclosed (78 per cent) or Other (82 per cent) groups ( Table 14).
For national identity, those in the Other group were most likely to enter positive destinations (88 per cent) and those in the not known or not disclosed group (79 per cent were the least likely to enter positive destinations ( Table 15).
Leavers who have been assessed or declared as having a disability are less likely to enter postive destinations (81 per cent) than the average ( Table 17).
Attainment of qualifications also has an impact on positive destinations. Of the unemployed and seeking group, around 85 per cent have no qualifications at Higher or better, compared to around 53 per cent of all leavers ( Tables 19 and 20).