2 IMPROVING OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF A CHANGING CLIMATE
2.1 This chapter presents the findings on Question 1 of the consultation document.
Q1: The Government wishes to improve understanding of the consequences of a changing climate. Do you think the six actions identified in section 2.6 (listed below) are the most appropriate actions to achieve this?
- ACTION 1: Support the further development of climate models
- ACTION 2: Develop detailed assessments of risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate
- ACTION 3: Cost the risks and opportunities presented by a changing climate
- ACTION 4: Work with Scottish sectors to cost the risks presented by a changing climate
- ACTION 5: Support the coordination of climate change research across Scotland and with U.K. partners
- ACTION 6: Investigate the benefits of a centrally coordinated evidence base
Are there any additional actions that you think are necessary and if so, what are they? (please identify up to three)
2.2 This question was addressed by 57 respondents. Thirty of those thought that the actions identified were appropriate, 23 thought that they were only partly appropriate, and four thought they were inappropriate. Most respondents focused only on the six actions listed but a few also responded to the more specific actions set out in Annex A. These responses tended to be more detailed and provided very useful additional comments. Many respondents gave comments and criticisms on the six identified actions, before offering their own additional actions (sometimes offering more than three). The comments and criticisms will be analysed first.
Comments
2.3 Action 1: The vast majority of respondents agreed with Action 1 that support needed to be given to the development of climate change models. The main criticism was that down-scaling the models needed to be a priority in order to give more localised projections and avoid generic information which is too easy to ignore. This would enable people and businesses to prepare for a changing climate in a more tailored way. It was presumed that there was likely to be some variation across Scotland as to changes in climate. People suggested that it would be good to know what these variations were likely to be. It was also noted that the existence of climate change models can never remove the uncertainties of climate change and should not seek to give the impression of definite future events.
2.4 Action 2: Most respondents expressed concern about the 'risks' associated with climate change. The climate effects which were most often mentioned by respondents as posing a risk to Scotland included flooding, landslips, storms, sea level rises, hotter weather, and an influx of new plant and animal species. 'Opportunities' featured much less regularly in written responses. This may be because, according to one local authority, potential economic opportunities arising from climate change are "poorly understood and poorly documented." Opportunities were identified more frequently in the workshop events. These included: increased demand and funding for information, technology and research and development; increased demand for land-related advisory services; increase in year-round tourism; lower energy use as a result of warmer winters; longer growing time for plants; and a potentially healthier nation due to an increase in the potential for outdoor activities. In terms of assessing the risks, a significant number of respondents thought that the social and environmental impacts of climate change needed to be given higher priority and were concerned that economic impacts took precedence in terms of government priorities. One academic organisation suggested that an action should be specifically devoted to dealing with the environment, and should read: "Assess the risks and opportunities presented by a changing climate on Scotland's natural environment." One business respondent highlighted the need for any assessments to be joined up with the Climate Change (Scotland) Act's National Risk Assessment.
2.5 A few respondents commented that Actions 2, 3 & 4 showed considerable overlap and suggested that they could be usefully combined. One local authority suggested that if Action 3 focused on risks, and Action 4 on opportunities, it would be much clearer. One individual highlighted that Actions 1-4 were all related to costs and could therefore be usefully grouped together in some way.
2.6 Action 3: There was a general concern expressed that cost-benefit analyses ( CBAs) did not take sufficient account of the social and environmental costs of climate change. One public sector organisation argued that a qualitative description of the economic, social, and environmental impacts of climate change should be carried out before any monetary values were assigned to those impacts. One Third sector organisation commented that over-reliance on CBAs was problematic because it could not factor in unpredictable events, giving the example of the recent financial crisis. An equivalent unpredictable event resulting from climate change would be a major flood. One Third sector organisation also considered it appropriate to open up to public scrutiny the assumptions on which CBAs are based. CBAs, it argued, can obscure the value judgments and competing interests embodied in the attribution of costs and benefits to such things as life, health, biodiversity, soil, and clean air:
"Decision-makers must not regard CBA as providing factual answers to difficult political dilemmas." (Third sector)
Another two organisations suggested that costs and risks should be trialled against real events that have occurred in Scotland or elsewhere in the world, so that possible weaknesses in certain assessment/modelling frameworks could be identified in advance.
2.7 Action 4: A number of respondents hoped that the identified risks and opportunities would eventually be made more "sector specific" as this would be much more useful for tailoring adaptation efforts. One Third sector organisation criticised risk assessments for taking too long because of the detail required to produce them. The same organisation suggested that "good enough" assessments should be allowed so that they can be produced more quickly. Another organisation advocated a less "top-down" approach to adaptation preparations, insisting instead on a "networked" approach which treats equally the needs and views of civil society, business, the public sector, and government.
2.8 Action 5: It was widely viewed that the government should be focusing efforts on coordinating all climate change research across Scotland and with U.K. partners. In addition, a significant number of respondents expressed the view that this action should be extended to co-ordinating research with Scotland's European and international partners, because climate change is a global issue. Some respondents argued that the international perspective did not feature enough in the listed actions, and that there was inadequate reference to such international issues as food security and climate change refugees, to the role of the G8, the effects of European directives, and of prospects for the UN summit at Copenhagen. A number of respondents seemed particularly concerned about how the global effects of climate change would affect Scotland's ability to adapt e.g. a large influx of climate change refugees and migrating non-native species. A few respondents wanted to see the government invest significantly in research into the effects of climate change in Scotland specifically and to use that expert knowledge to identify areas of particular vulnerability. There was also an indication in a number of responses that dissemination of the research was as important as the "co-ordination" of the research.
2.9 Action 6: In terms of establishing a centrally co-ordinated "portal", most respondents agreed that this would be a valuable tool. However, provisos which individuals and organisations stipulated included: the need to publicise such a database more widely; the need to make it accessible and to convey information in suitable formats; the need to attach probabilities to prospective scenarios; and, above all, the need to make the information relevant to local concerns. One individual respondent advised that this action was ambiguously worded. Did it refer to an evidence base devoted to Scottish data only or rather consist of a relevant portal for Scotland within a U.K. wide data-base? One umbrella organisation wondered if there would be any point in setting up and maintaining a data base that was not centrally co-ordinated and accessible to all.
2.10 In general, a recurrent criticism of the six listed government actions was that they were too focused on identifying problems and not enough on identifying specific measures to deal with those problems. Individuals and organisations alike seemed to be expecting more practical measures or advice about how to prepare for storms, floods, and invasive species. This related to another concern mentioned by some: that adaptation needed to be better linked to mitigation efforts. The two examples most often cited were micro-generation, which both reduces carbon emissions and provides energy security for companies and individuals, and the restoration and protection of peatlands which has the dual effect of absorbing and storing carbon while also absorbing excess water thereby helping to prevent flooding. There was also a view shared by some that more work needed to go into disseminating and acting on research already undertaken into 'difficult' lifestyle changes required, rather than just commissioning new work, which they saw as a way of delaying implementing those difficult changes.
Additional Actions
2.11 Additional actions suggested by respondents varied widely, and often sought to "fill the gaps" left by perceived weaknesses in the six listed actions.
2.12 One common action mentioned by several respondents was that government needed to lead by example by making adaptation a feature of all government guidance and approval conditions. These respondents were keen to see a holistic approach taken in assessing all current policies and legislation in light of the need to adapt to climate change. There were also some references made to Scotland's international position as a leader on climate change issues: it was proposed that Scotland could set an example to other countries by a successfully combined programme of mitigation and adaptation measures.
2.13 A handful of respondents argued that one useful action would be to set up a database of empirical data collected by multiple agencies to complement the more abstract climate change modelling data. If organisations and individuals were encouraged to monitor the natural environment, including rainfall, river flows, and urban green spaces, this would help to "plug the gaps" in the modelling data. Further to this, one public sector organisation commented that the SCCIP needs to take account of the work being done by the Environmental Observation Framework which provides a monitoring database of observed environmental changes. Another organisation, this time from the Third sector, suggested that phenological data (the monitoring of annual phenomena of animal and plant life such as budding and bird migrations) can act as a reliable proxy for direct climate change and can give early warnings not yet evident in the physical data. This same organisation proposed research on the following: the impacts of marine renewables; the impacts of climate change on urban ecosystems and ways in which these impacts could be ameliorated e.g. urban trees, green spaces; and the ways in which biodiversity can be encouraged e.g. ecological network functioning, translocations, and 're-wilding'.
2.14 In addition to the criticism that Actions 2-4 fail to take account of environmental risks and opportunities specifically, a number of organisations reasoned that priority should be given to developing and maintaining a healthy and robust eco-system. For instance, there were multiple references made to the importance of conserving and restoring peatlands. One public sector organisation recommended improving our understanding of the carbon stored in soils and vegetation by undertaking a terrestrial soil carbon inventory. Protecting and expanding natural woodland, city parks, green spaces, and trees was also recommended.
2.15 Another useful action, according to a few respondents, would be to invest in research on the important behavioural and social elements of climate change. While technical modelling data is important, they suggest, it cannot tell us about how people will respond to climate change and how to motivate them to adapt.
2.16 A large number of respondents proposed that planning should be a much more central feature of the Adaptation Framework. How new developments are planned, how land is used, and the location, layout and design of buildings, both old and new, were thought to be key to any successful adaptation strategies. It was argued that much more stringent building standards were needed because it was much more efficient and cheaper to make new builds 'green' rather than having to retro-fit existing housing stock. Some of these respondents viewed the National Planning Framework 3 ( NPF3), The Planning Act (Scotland) 2009 and the first round of the new development plans as prime opportunities to incorporate adaptation measures into planning. The view was also expressed that Scottish Planning Policy ( SPP) could be suitably amended (alongside the supplementary planning guidance) to deal explicitly and effectively with climate change considerations.
2.17 A couple of respondents also thought that transport should be given much greater emphasis in the Framework because of its central role in both mitigation and adaptation.
2.18 Another proposed action, according to one local authority, was to help the health sector prepare better for climate change and the threat from new diseases and the aggravation of other illnesses as a result of climate change e.g. asthma (this respondent referred the reader to the recent Lancet Commission Report on the potential health dangers and inequalities arising as a result of climate change).
2.19 One public sector respondent suggested setting up effective working groups which could make recommendations and help to disseminate information. A Third sector respondent suggested five-year action plans which could be adapted to take account of new data as and when it emerges.
2.20 Another action suggested by a public sector organisation was that Scotland should replicate the European Environment Agency's report "Impacts of Europe's Changing Climate - 2008 Indicator based assessment" ( http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp1-19_CC2008Executive_Summary.pdf). This could be undertaken with SEPA's help through building on the 2009 SNIFFER report "Differential Social Impacts of Climate Change in the U.K." by illustrating the impacts, consequences, and vulnerable areas, groups, and sectors.
2.21 One business recommended that "inward" adaptation should also be an action within the Framework. "Inward" adaptation involves considering the security and well-being of a workforce and of finding ways to involve them in any adaptation plans.
2.22 There were also references made to a need to release more public funds in order to facilitate adaptation. A review of budget priorities was suggested by one Third sector organisation, along with the suggestion of using tax incentives to encourage reductions in carbon emissions as well as preparations for flooding and higher sea levels. Targeting financial assistance to those least able or with fewer resources to adapt was also advocated.