Scottish Government

ScHARR, University of Sheffield, September 2009.
ISBN 978 0 7559 7670 6 (Web only publication)
This document is also available in pdf format (1.5mb)

Contents

Author contributions
Conflicts of interest
Acknowledgments

Executive summary
Scope of research
Summary of model findings
Changes to consumption
Changes in levels of health, crime and workplace harm
Changes to consumer spending and retailer revenue
Valuation of harm reductions
Policy effects on different population sub-groups

1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Research questions addressed

2 Methods
2.1 Conceptual framework
2.2 Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model structural assumptions
2.2.1 Modelling the relationship between consumption and harm
2.2.2 Modelling the relationship between price and consumption
2.3 Scottish adaptation
2.3.1 Quantification of alcohol consumption
2.3.2 Modelling the relationship between price and consumption
2.3.3 Modelling the relationship between consumption and harm
2.4 Policies appraised
2.5 Sensitivity analysis
2.5.1 Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
2.5.2 Differential responsiveness of heavy drinkers
2.5.3 Preferences for off-trade consumption
2.5.4 Protective effects of alcohol for coronary heart disease
2.5.5 Attribution of alcohol to crime

3 Results
3.1 Example policy analyses
3.1.1 Example policy analysis: 40p minimum price (scenario 4)
3.1.2 Example policy analysis: Off-trade discount ban (scenario 11)
3.1.3 Example policy analysis: 40p minimum price combined with off-trade discount ban (scenario 15)
3.2 Estimated impacts across all policies
3.2.1 Summary tables of pricing policies - Scotland
3.2.2 Consumption, spending and sales effects across all policies
3.2.3 Health, crime and employment harm effects across all polices
3.2.4 Financial valuation of harm reduction across all policies
3.2.5 Differential effects of different policies on moderate, hazardous and harmful drinkers
3.2.6 Summary tables for consumption analysis of pricing policies by population sub-group
3.2.7 Summary tables for health, crime and employment harms by population sub-group
3.2.8 Summary tables for financial value of harm reductions by population sub-group
3.3 Sensitivity analyses
3.3.1 Probabilistic sensitivity analysis
3.3.2 Moderate versus heavy drinkers
3.3.3 Preferences for off-trade versus on-trade consumption
3.3.4 Protective effects of alcohol for coronary heart disease
3.3.5 Alternative crime AFs

4 Summary of Results and Discussion
4.1 Summary of model findings
4.1.1 Changes to consumption
4.1.2 Changes in levels of health, crime and workplace harm
4.1.3 Changes to consumer spending and retailer revenue
4.1.4 Valuation of harm reductions
4.1.5 Policy effects on different population sub-groups
4.1.6 Sensitivity of findings to alternative modelling assumptions
4.2 Comparison with England
4.3 Limitations
4.3.1 Limitations in the model of the relationship between price and consumption
4.3.2 Limitations in the model of the relationship between consumption and harmful outcomes
4.3.3 Other limitations
4.4 Areas for possible future research

References

Appendix 1: Age/gender consumption distribution from the SHeS (2003) - Descriptive statistics
Appendix 2: Off-trade alcohol price-based promotion distributions
Appendix 3: Statistical regression model: relationship between the scale of the binge and the mean daily consumption
Appendix 4: Detailed tables for alcohol-attributable health conditions
Appendix 5: Risk functions for health conditions
Appendix 6: Morbidity cost to healthcare services
Appendix 7: Utilities
Appendix 8: Summary of Scotland recorded crime volumes and multipliers used
Appendix 9: Estimated number of offences per age group
Appendix 10: Slope of the linear function used for crime
Appendix 11: Unit costs of crime categories used in the model
Appendix 12: Slope for the risk functions for absenteeism and unemployment
Appendix 13: Alternative elasticity matrices used in the moderate versus heavy drinkers sensitivity analysis
Appendix 14: Summary tables for moderate versus heavy drinkers sensitivity analysis
Appendix 15: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - protective effects of alcohol for CHD
Appendix 16: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - higher crime AAFs
Appendix 17: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - lower crime AAFs
Appendix 18: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis - Nielsen-based preference for off-trade