Scottish Government

3 FINDINGS

Scotland's Diaspora Overseas

3.1 This first section of the analysis considers those people, who were born in Scotland and who, at the time of another country's census, were living outside Scotland.

3.2 As a starting point, Table 1, sourced wholly from the New Zealand Treasury report, shows data on overseas and resident populations in New Zealand and eight selected countries. The information used by the New Zealand Treasury to put this together was derived from the websites of the statistical agencies of the countries considered.

3.3 The estimate data included in this paper refers to the 'usually resident' population. The row for Australia, for example, shows the number of Australian residents born in Australia, Canada and the other six countries as documented in Australia's 2001 Census. The rows for Germany, Italy, Thailand and Japan are based on citizenship data, rather than place of birth and the New Zealand Treasury authors note that in the context of their research on diaspora that this data made little difference to the results.

3.4 The columns of data illustrated in Table 1 show, for each of the countries considered by the New Zealand Treasury, the international distribution of people born in that country. The 'total' row at the bottom of the table provides the figure for the total number of people, who were born in that country and includes those living inside and outside their country of birth. The New Zealand Treasury report suggests that the totals for people living outside their country of birth are all underestimates, because data has not been sourced for immigrants in all countries.

3.5 For example, Table 1 shows that in excess of 460,000 New Zealand born people were living outside New Zealand in 2001 and of these over 355,000 were living in Australia. The authors of the New Zealand Treasury report also used this information to show how the numbers of New Zealanders in other countries was often also smaller than is commonly assumed, for example in the UK.

Table 1: International diaspora of New Zealand and eight selected countries, 2001 (unless other date specified)

Note: Dashes indicate that no data was available, which given that statistical agencies often report the major migration sources first, implies that the number of immigrants was small.
a 1999, b 1999, c 1995, d 2000, e citizenship rather than birth
Source: New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 04/14, September 2004, pg 3

3.6 More specifically, for Scotland, Table 2 below provides an initial insight into the geographical distribution of people who were born in Scotland and who currently live outside the country. As a starting point, the data in Table 2 are sourced primarily from the 2001 censuses of countries where there is understood to be a link with Scotland's diaspora. In those cases where more recent data are available this information has been used to provide a more up to date picture of the number of people who were born in Scotland and who are living outside their country of birth. The exception is the US data which is sourced from the American Community Survey 2007.

Table 2: Geographical distribution of Scotland's diaspora

Notes: Scotland figure is based on those who specified in the 2001 Census that their place of birth was Scotland and does not include those who said UK, but did not specify which part.
New Zealand: The figure for 2001 was 28,680
Australia: The figure for 2001 was 137,252 ^viii
Ireland: The figure from the 2002 Census was 15,963 (Table 29A: Persons usually resident in each province and county, and present)
Not all countries listed above undertook a Census in 2001; the next best available data has therefore been used.

3.7 When Table 2 is considered it can be seen that:

• In the small number of countries considered and from the data available, 5,495,846 people stated that their place of birth was Scotland.
• There were in excess of 1,085,446 people born in Scotland, who were living outside Scotland.
• In terms of scale, this shows that a group of people, which equates to over 20% of Scotland's current total population, are living outside Scotland.
• 794,580 people, who were born in Scotland, were living in England, which equates to about 16% of Scotland's current total population, and 835,738 people were living in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (ie the rest of the UK).

3.8 However, as some censuses do not collect information on Scotland as a place of birth and instead only collect data on the UK, it was decided that an initial estimate figure could provide some early insights into the potential numbers of people who were born in Scotland and who live in other selected countries. This estimate has been calculated based on Scotland's share of the UK population in 2001 and can be seen in Table 3 below. It should be noted that this is a straightforward estimate based on Scotland's share of the UK population. Given the evidence of Scottish-born people in other countries, it is highly likely that estimates for countries such as Canada are underestimates and could be considerably higher.

Table 3: Estimated size of Scotland's diaspora in selected countries

Note: Estimates based on Scotland's share of UK total population in 2001 ( UK population 58,789,194, Scotland 5,062,011) of 8.6%. Sourced from http://www.ons.gov.uk/census/get-data/index.html

3.9 These estimates have been added into Table 4 below and illustrate that:

• For the 12 countries considered in this analysis, a total of 1,151,467 people living outside Scotland could, according to the estimate figures obtained, have Scotland as their place of birth.
• Of these, almost 795,000 were living in England in 2001.
• Other common destinations included other English speaking countries throughout the world such as Australia, New Zealand, the US and Canada as well as other parts of the UK and Ireland.

Table 4: Geographical distribution of Scotland's diaspora

3.10 Table 5 summarises the data shown in Tables 1,3 and 4. The second row of the table gives the number of people living outside their country of birth as a percentage of the total population shown at the bottom of Table 2 (does not include estimated data) and Table 4 (includes estimated data). Table 5 shows that:

• Around 80% of people born in Scotland currently live in Scotland, whilst 20% live outside Scotland.
• For the countries considered, Scotland has the highest percentage of people living outside their country of birth (around 20%) followed by Ireland (19%) and New Zealand (14%). The figures for these three countries are considerably higher than for the other countries considered, which all record figures of 5.6% or less.
• The US has the greatest percentage of people living in their country of birth followed by Australia (over 99% and 98% respectively).
• Scotland differs from the UK as a whole, where the data show that over 94% of the UK population was resident in their country of birth (ie the UK) in 2001 and just over 5.5% of those born in the UK, as a whole, were living outside the UK.

Table 5: Geographical distributions of populations born in Scotland and eight selected countries, 2001

Source: With the exception of the Scotland data, all other data were sourced from New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 04/14, September 2004, pg 4

3.11 As seen already, most of Scotland's diaspora is located in England (about 70%). This concentration of the diaspora in a nearby country (usually a larger country) is not uncommon and some of the comparator countries considered in the New Zealand analysis also share this experience. For example, 66% of Irish-born based outside Ireland live in the United Kingdom and 83% of Canadian-born based outside Canada live in the United States. Indeed, the diaspora polices of countries like these actively target members of the lived diaspora living in nearby countries given their noticeable concentrations.

3.12 The figures in the bottom row of Table 5 show the percentage for each country's diaspora once the largest destination for the diaspora (in the case of Scotland this is England) is excluded. The New Zealand Treasury authors refer to this figure as one way of providing some information on a country's 'far flung diaspora' (ie countries excluding the main destination which is usually a neighbouring country). When this is considered, Scotland, like Ireland, differs from the other countries considered in that their 'far flung' diaspora are noticeably larger than for the other selected countries. It is also worth noting that when the rest of the UK (England, Wales and Northern Ireland), as a destination for Scotland's diaspora, is excluded, the percentage for people born in Scotland, who are outside their country of birth, is still around 5% (4.5% excluding the estimated data & 5.7% including the estimated data).

3.13 Table 6 provides further information on the geographical concentration of the diaspora for the countries considered:

• The percentage of the population outside the country of birth in the biggest destination for people born in Scotland (ie England) was about 70%.
• The 2 biggest destinations for people born in Scotland, who move overseas (ie England and Australia) accounted for in excess of 80%.
• For the 5 biggest destinations (ie England, Australia, United States, New Zealand and Wales (excluding non-estimated data) and England, Australia, United States, Canada and New Zealand (including estimated data) was over 90%.

3.14 For the countries considered, Scotland's diaspora is one of the most geographically concentrated and in this respect it is similar to Ireland, New Zealand and Canada though the extent of the concentration varies between these countries.

Table 6: Geographical distributions of populations born in Scotland and selected countries (calculated from data in Tables 1, 2 & 4)

Source: With the exception of the Scotland data, all other data were sourced from the New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 04/14, September 2004, pg 5

Scotland's reverse diaspora: 'migrants to Scotland'

3.15 Although people born in Scotland migrate to live elsewhere, people born elsewhere also move to Scotland and these people are known as the 'reverse diaspora' because of their diaspora links back to their countries of origin.

3.16 Table 7 presents some information on the reported birth place of Scotland's resident population at the time of the 2001 Census and shows that:

• In 2001, 87.1% of people living in Scotland were born in Scotland, whilst 8.1% were born in England.
• 651,611 (12.9%) of people living in Scotland were not born in Scotland (includes rest of UK), whilst 191,571 people (3.8%) completing the place of birth question in Scotland's Census were born outside the UK (includes other).

Table 7: Distribution of Scotland's population by place of birth 2001

Source: General Register Office for Scotland (2003), Scotland's Census 2001: Reference Volume, Table CAS015.

3.17 Table 8 below presents some information on trends in the reverse diaspora, based on the reported birth places of Scotland's resident population at the time of the 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

• Between 1991 and 2001, the percentage of people in Scotland, who were born in Scotland, decreased slightly from 89% in 1991 to 87% in 2001 (ie the number of migrants to Scotland, the reverse diaspora, increased in 2001).
• With the exception of the Republic of Ireland and North America, which showed a slight decrease in the percentage of people living in Scotland who were born in these countries, the percentage of people born in the other countries and geographical regions increased.
• In 2001, over 650,000 people were living in Scotland who were not born in Scotland, therefore 12.9% of Scotland's total population was born outside Scotland (including the rest of the UK). This figure has increased slightly from 10.9% recorded in 1991.

Table 8: Distribution of Scotland's population by place of birth:1991 & 2001

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS), Scotland's Census 2001: Reference Volume, GROS, Table CAS015
1991 Census data sourced from GROS, April 2009
Note: - denotes % less than 0.00%

3.18 Figure 1 compares the percentage of people born outside Scotland (including those born in the rest of the UK) with percentages in other countries in 2000-2001. The source of the information for the comparison countries is derived from the New Zealand Treasury paper ¹³. For Scotland, Table 9 illustrates that:

• The proportion of people born outside Scotland, who were living in Scotland at the time of the 2001 Census (including the rest of the UK), was greater than for many of the countries considered in the New Zealand analysis (eg Ireland, the United States and the UK), however it was considerably lower than for New Zealand, Australia and Canada.
• If migrants to Scotland from the rest of the UK are excluded, the proportion of people born outside Scotland is low by international standards and is lower than many of the other selected countries considered in this analysis.

Figure 1: Populations born outside country of residence as percentage of total population, selected countries 2000-2001

Source: With the exception of the Scotland data, all other data were sourced from the New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 04/14, September 2004, pg 7; Note: Actual data available at the end of the paper - see Table A1

3.19 Table 9 shows the top 20 sources of migrants to Scotland in 2001.

• England was the largest source, with Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland second and third.
• Other significant sources of migrants coming to Scotland in 2001 were Germany, Wales, Pakistan, the US and India.
• In summary, migrants to Scotland were mainly from the rest of the UK, other English speaking or Commonwealth countries, and Western Europe.

Table 9: The top 20 sources of migrants to Scotland, 2001 and 1991

Source: General Register Office for Scotland (2001) - Scotland's Census Results Online ( SCROL), Table UV08 Country of Birth, http://www.scrol.gov.uk/scrol/analyser/analyser?actionName=choose-topic-and-table
1991 data sourced from General Register Office for Scotland 1991 Census of Population, Breakdown of Country of Birth by Sex, Tables UV08 / S202 , April 2009
Note: 4,410,400 completing the 2001 Census noted that their place of birth was Scotland and 4,454,065 in 1991

3.20 The top 8 source countries of migrants to Scotland has remained the same in both 1991 and 2001. Key source countries of migrants to Scotland that emerged between 1991 and 2001 were Poland, Malaysia and Singapore, whilst China, (other) Middle East, (other) Far East and (other) South and East Africa did not appear in the top 20 sources of migrants to Scotland in 2001 though they had featured in 1991.

3.21 It will be interesting to see in the 2011 Census how the number of migrants to Scotland from A8 countries in Central and Eastern Europe has changed from the information available in 2001. For example, data from the Workers Registration Scheme shows that since May 2004, 79,625 people from A8 countries have registered to work in Scotland on the scheme.

3.22 This information illustrates how the source countries of in-migrants changes over time and that countries that may have in the past been a source of migrants to Scotland no longer have the same links, whilst new source countries are emerging, which may not be countries in the Commonwealth or English speaking countries. This helps illustrate how thinking about the diaspora is a concept that relates to Scotland's future and not just its past.

3.23 The New Zealand Treasury analysis also sought to consider how the diversity of New Zealand's migrant population compares with that of other countries and Table 10 below shows some concentration measures for Scotland, New Zealand and six other selected countries that publish the necessary data. Table 10 shows that:

• Scotland's migrant population is significantly more concentrated than that of the other countries considered - with the exception of Ireland.
• The difference is particularly apparent for the biggest source and 2, 5, and 10 biggest sources.
• From 2001 data, Scotland's migrant population is less diverse than that of the other countries considered. However, given the flows of migration from countries in Eastern Europe to Scotland since 2001, this picture could change in the 2011 Census

Table 10: Diversity of migrant populations, Scotland and selected countries, 2001

Source: Scotland-data sourced from GROS 2001 Census data for Scotland, Table UV08, Country of Birth, All People
All other data sourced from New Zealand Treasury paper, Table 7, pg 8
Notes: For the purposes of this Table, a 'migrant' is a person who was born outside their present country of residence.

The 20 largest sources of migrants to Scotland are listed in Table 10 and calculations are based on the figures from Table 8 on total population born outside Scotland including the rest of the UK.

3.24 The New Zealand analysis also considered the extent to which the rise in numbers of migrants in New Zealand has led to a rise in the number of migrant communities. Table 11 presents the number of countries from which Scotland, in comparison with New Zealand and other selected countries in 2001, has received a given number of migrants, where a 'migrant' is defined as a person who was born outside Scotland. The Table uses three minimum sizes for migrant communities (100, 1000 & 10,000 migrants). Table 11 shows that in 2001:

• Scotland, like Ireland, has fewer migrant communities from different countries when compared with the other countries in this analysis. Therefore, in contrast to the other countries considered, Scotland does not attract migrants from as wide a range of countries when compared to some of the other countries in this analysis.

Table 11: Number of migrant communities in Scotland and selected countries, 2001

Source: Scotland-data sourced from GROS 2001 Census data for Scotland, Table UV08, Country of Birth, All People
All other data sourced from New Zealand Treasury report, Table 8, pg 8
Note: For the purposes of this Table, a 'migrant' is a person who was born outside their present country of residence.
For Scotland although the 2001 Census data lists migrants from designated countries, other sources have been classified as broader geographical areas such as Other Far East and these have been included in the analysis.