Scottish Government

Chapter 3: Emissions Impact of Transport Interventions

3.1 Background

This chapter lists those transport interventions, whether devolved or reserved to the UK/ EU, that are firm commitments and are expected to have a direct and significant impact on Scottish transport emissions after the time period captured by the GHGI (1990-2006). For clarity, measures are separated between those that are infrastructure projects and those that involve fiscal policy or regulation. It highlights the original objective of the interventions and provides background information where relevant. Emissions impacts are those stated in the original appraisal report or equivalent published document, and have been rounded to the nearest 1ktCO ₂e where appropriate to reduce the risk of spurious accuracy. Whilst the emissions figures themselves remain unaltered, the years that they are associated with may have been updated to reflect the latest transport programme.

As well as reporting the emissions impacts, where possible the chapter outlines the general methodological approach for estimating the impact of both infrastructure projects and fiscal/regulatory policies. As is apparent, the precise estimation methodology may differ significantly depending upon the type of intervention and original model utilised. Furthermore, for many interventions there are likely to be a number of localised impacts. These may be neither captured nor presented consistently between appraisals but, where possible, the impacts presented here are the net emissions impact at a national level.

As a result of such methodological variation, as well as the fact that emissions estimates are frequently assessed in isolation, and so don't include the interactions between measures or the impact of any future measures, the emissions estimates and related timescales are to be used as an informative guide to the direction of change and the order of magnitude only. The comparison, addition or netting off of emissions estimates between interventions or against the GHGI data is not statistically valid and may lead to incorrect conclusions being drawn.

3.2 Infrastructure Projects

Methodology

Environmental impacts from infrastructure projects are taken from the latest published estimates. In most cases, this will be the carbon estimate contained in the specific Environmental Statement. Some projects may not yet have undergone a formal Environmental Statement; where this is the case the carbon estimate is taken from the environmental chapter of the STAG Appraisal report. In general, where more than one set of figures exists, the most recent figures take precedence. For reference, links to the project home page are also provided where an online version is available.

STAG recommends that CO ₂ emissions from road traffic are calculated according to the methodology in the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges¹⁴ ( DMRB). DMRB was first introduced in 1992 in England and Wales, and subsequently in Scotland and Northern Ireland. It provides a comprehensive manual system which accommodates current Standards, Advice Notes and other published documents relating to Trunk Road Works.

Data regarding emissions associated with the running of diesel and electric trains is at present limited. The research is ongoing to obtain more robust evidence to use for the estimation of emissions from rail. Prior to the outcome of this research, STAG recommends the use of the Rail Emission Model Final Report¹⁵ that was produced for the Strategic Rail Authority. This is published on the Department for Transport website, and provides estimated emission factors and detailed data for individual diesel and electric train types.

There are no such established guidelines for estimating carbon estimates for other travel modes. Where projects do concern other modes, for example the Edinburgh Tram, the methodology used to estimate the carbon impact will be tailored specifically to that individual project and highlighted as such below.

Excluded from this analysis is the Strategic Transport Projects Review ( STPR), with the exception of those projects that are to be 'fast-tracked' ( i.e. the Forth Replacement Crossing and Edinburgh-Glasgow (Rail) Improvements Programme). Undertaken by Transport Scotland and announced by The Minister for Transport, Infrastructure and Climate Change in December 2008, the STPR sets out the strategic transport investment priorities for the next twenty years and provides the basis on which Ministers can make informed decisions about future transport spending beyond the current programme. Individual projects from within STPR will be included as and when they become committed schemes with a designated timescale for implementation.

Road

M77 - Junction 2 Pollok

• Document: Environmental Statement Volume 1 (2005), RPS Group
• Construction completion: 2007
• Estimated emissions impact: +3ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2007; +3ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2010

This project altered the layout of the M77 Junction 2 Interchange near Pollok Town Centre, Glasgow.

Compared to the baseline situation, there is estimated to be an increase in emissions of all pollutants with the proposed scheme and associated development. This is due to the general increase in traffic, primarily concentrated along Barrhead Road, the M77 south of junction 2 and the new Connector Road to the new sliproads.

A876 Upper Forth Crossing at Kincardine

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/upper-forth-crossing

• Document: Environmental Statement (2003), Babtie
• Construction completion: 2008
• Estimated emissions impact: +5ktCO2 p.a. in 2009; +8ktCO ₂ p.a. in 2021

The new £120 million Clackmannanshire Bridge over the Firth of Forth was officially opened on the 19 ^th November 2008. This project is designed to improve the road network within and around the village of Kincardine. The existing Kincardine Bridge requires substantial refurbishment. Without the new bridge, traffic would otherwise have to divert to Stirling or the Forth Road Bridge in order to cross the Forth, resulting in major disruption to the wider road network.

It is estimated that CO ₂ emissions increase with time due to the predicted increase in traffic as a result of the new crossing; an estimated 8,000 additional vehicles a day would be attracted to the area.

Note that the final construction completion date of 2008/09, as specified in Transport Scotland's Scottish Motorway and Trunk Road Programme ( SMTRP), is later than the original 2006 emissions impact estimate as published in the Environmental Statement.

M80 Stepps-Haggs

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/trunk-road-projects/m80-stepps-to-haggs-project

• Document: Environmental Statement (2004), Babtie
• Anticipated construction completion: 2011/12
• Estimated emissions impact: +40ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2012; +40ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2025

This project is to upgrade the A80 between Stepps and Haggs to motorway standard.

The change in carbon dioxide emissions results from the predicted increase in traffic volume and an increase in the average vehicle speed on the A80 from 69kph to 88kph.

M74 Completion

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/m74-completion

• Document: Environmental Statement (2003), ERM
• Anticipated construction completion: 2011/12
• Estimated emissions impact: +87ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2012; +135ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2020

The M74 Completion project will complete a vital part of the west of Scotland's motorway network. The new eight kilometres (five miles) stretch of road will continue the M74 motorway from Fullarton Road Junction, near Carmyle, to the M8 motorway west of the Kingston Bridge. Construction work on the road began in May 2008 and is scheduled for completion in 2011.

The scheme is predicted to cause an increase in global emissions of carbon dioxide due to the overall increase in vehicle kilometres travelled on the road network. Note that the revised anticipated construction completion date of 2011/12, as specified in Transport Scotland's Scottish Motorway and Trunk Road Programme ( SMTRP), is a year later than the original 2010 emissions impact estimate as published in the Environmental Statement.

A75 Dunragit Bypass

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/trunk-road-projects/a75-dunragit-bypass-project

• Document: Environmental Statement, Young Associates / Mouchel Parkman
• Anticipated construction completion: 2012/13
• Estimated emissions impact: +4ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2022

Drivers currently experience limited overtaking opportunities along much of the A75, which leads to traffic congestion and creates driving conditions which lower average speeds, increased driver frustration and the potential for accidents. The proposed scheme will comprise an off-line road alignment and, in accordance with its stated objective, will provide guaranteed overtaking in both eastbound and westbound directions. The additional CO ₂ emissions are expected as a result of the increase in distance that vehicles will travel due to the addition of the bypass.

M74 Raith Interchange

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/trunk-road-projects/m74-raith-interchange

• Document: Environmental Statement (2007), Mouchel Fairhurst JV
• Anticipated construction completion: 2012/13
• Estimated emissions impact: +10ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2013; +10ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2020

The scheme is aligned with the M8 Baillieston to Newhouse works and the Associated Network Improvements. These are vital links in the trunk road network of Central Scotland and serve substantial existing developments as well as some of the most substantial future development sites in Scotland.

Severe traffic problems exist at Raith Junction due to the interaction of heavy turning volumes from the A725 and the M74 at the signalised roundabout. This scheme aims to relieve traffic congestion at the junction.

M8 Associated Network Improvements

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/trunk-road-projects/m8-associated-network-improvement-study

• Document: Environmental Statement, 2008 (Mouchel Fairhurst JV)
• Anticipated construction completion: 2012/13
• Estimated emissions impact: +0ktCO ₂ by 2013; +2ktCO ₂ p.a. by 2020

This study is looking at a series of options for capacity improvements on sections of the M73, M74 and M8 adjacent to Baillieston and Maryville interchanges as a result of changes to east-west traffic patterns once the extension to the M74 and improvements to the M8 are in place. A range of strategies are being examined, from the application of demand management techniques within the existing carriageway, to the introduction of hard shoulder running and free flow links between junctions.

A90 Balmedie-Tipperty

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/trunk-road-projects/a90-balmedie-to-tipperty-dualling-project

• Document: Environmental Statement (2007), Grontmij / Natural Capital
• Anticipated construction completion: 2012/13
• Estimated emissions impact: +2ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2013

This project involves the proposed dualling of the A90 between Balmedie and Tipperty. These improvements will provide continuous dual carriageway between Aberdeen and Ellon, which will remove the bottleneck caused by the existing single carriageway. The local community has been pressing for this upgrade for a number of years.

The increase in emissions is due to the increase in the road sections that make up the total road assessed.

A90 Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route

http://www.awpr.co.uk/

• Document: Environmental Statement (2007), Jacobs
• Anticipated construction completion: 2012/13
• Estimated emissions impact: +29ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2013; +37ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2027.

A peripheral route around Aberdeen is proposed to reduce the high volumes of traffic using the A90 in the centre of Aberdeen, and to reduce the traffic congestion that the city experiences as a result of the volume of traffic using the A90 and its associated radial roads. The overall increase in the number of road vehicles, however, is expected to lead to an increase in CO ₂ emissions.

M8 Baillieston-Newhouse

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/trunk-road-projects/m8-baillieston-to-newhouse

• Document: Environmental Statement (2007), Mouchel Fairhurst JV
• Anticipated construction completion: 2013/14
• Estimated emissions impact: +30ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2014; +30ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2020

This project is a proposal to upgrade the existing A8 between Baillieston and Newhouse to dual three-lane motorway standard or equivalent.

The DMRB was used to calculate the change in greenhouse gas emissions, therefore the assessment has included all traffic on the entire modelled network, not just links that were explicitly included in the local assessment. The increase in emissions is due to an increase in predicted traffic levels.

Forth Replacement Crossing

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/forth-replacement-crossing

• Document: STAG (2007), Jacobs
• Anticipated construction completion: 2016/17
• Estimated emissions impact: -23ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2017

The Forth Replacement Crossing was a fast tracked component of the Strategic Transport Projects Review ( STPR). The Forth Replacement Crossing will comprise a cable stayed bridge across the River Forth, west of the existing Forth Road Bridge with associated connecting roads. The Forth Road Bridge will be retained as a public transport corridor and continue its use by pedestrians and cyclists, as part of a Managed Crossing Scheme.

The Forth Replacement Crossing and its networks will ensure that a key river crossing is maintained. In doing so it will protect the economy of Fife, Edinburgh and beyond from disruption stemming from the uncertainty of the long term viability and operation of the Forth Road Bridge and concerns over the current operational characteristics of the surrounding road network.

The Managed Crossing Scheme will also offer the opportunity to develop bus, tram or light rail systems connecting Fife, Edinburgh and West Lothian, so encouraging the use of more sustainable modes of transport. The scheme will also support the reduction in travel times and improve journey time reliability for cross Forth trips and improve connections to areas of economic activity including West Edinburgh, Grangemouth, Rosyth and Dundee.

Design development of the Forth Replacement Crossing is ongoing. The primary factors affecting how soon the project can be delivered will be the resolution of statutory processes and the funding to carry the intervention forward to completion.

The emissions estimate quoted above is from the original STAG appraisal which used a baseline of no crossing (closure of Forth Road Bridge) and re-routeing of journeys via Kincardine. This scheme design has since been superseded to baseline of retaining the existing bridge, although there is no quantified update of the emissions estimate to date. An Environmental Statement, including updated quantified CO ₂ emissions, is currently being prepared on this basis, with publication due in November (alongside the introduction of the Bill). Early indications are that this Environmental Statement will show net increases in operational carbon emissions, when compared with a baseline of traffic continuing to use the Forth Road Bridge. The CAT will be adjusted to reflect these figures as and when they are confirmed.

Rail

Mossend Freight Gauge Enhancement

• Document: STAG (2005), Steer Davies Gleave (& internal calculation)
• Construction completion: 2007
• Estimated emissions impact: Cumulative decrease of -280ktCO ₂ to -314ktCO ₂ over 30 years

This project is to enhance and increase the movement of goods to and from the North East of Scotland by rail, in particular to maintain existing rail traffic and encourage new rail traffic. It involves the enhancement of gauge on the rail line between Mossend and Aberdeen, Inveurie and Elgin.

The appraisal methodology in the STAG report is based around the removal of HGVs from the road network, through maintaining existing rail freight traffic and allowing traffic currently out of gauge to be moved by rail. In the central case it is estimated there will be 3.2 round rail trips per day, which is equivalent to 66.5 lorry trips/day. Consequently, based upon average trip lengths and over the 30-year period, it is estimated that 370.3 million vehicle kilometres will be removed from the road network.

The 2009 Guidelines to Defra's GHG Conversion Factors suggest that the average UK articulated lorry emits 0.944kgCO ₂/km. Applying this figure to the 370.3 million vehicle kilometres ¹⁶, and assuming that rail freight emits approximately 10-20% of the emissions per vehicle kilometre of the road freight that it replaces, gives the total CO ₂ saving stated above.

Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine Railway Line

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/SAK-railway-project

• Document: Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine Rail Line Reopening Benefit Study (2002), MVA / David Simmonds Consultancy / Environmental Resources Management
• Construction completion: 2008
• Estimated emissions impact: +2ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2009

In May 2008, the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine railway line re-opened for the first time in over 40 years. As one of the most important railway infrastructure projects in recent years, the reopening of the Stirling-Alloa-Kincardine line will deliver major social, economic and environmental benefits to the communities directly concerned and also to Scotland as a whole.

The environmental appraisal follows the guidance set out in STAG and the DMRB. Emissions have been calculated on the basis of new railway movements along the Stirling to Kincardine railway as well as changes to movements of freight (and passenger) trains on other sections of the railway network. The railway will carry combined high volume freight and passenger services.

Glasgow Airport Rail Link ( GARL)

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk/projects/garl

• Document: Environmental Statement (2006), Faber Maunsell / AECOM
• Anticipated construction completion: 2013
• Estimated emissions impact: -2ktCO ₂ p.a. in 2014

This project seeks to provide a fixed railway link with sufficient capacity to enable a dedicated train service to operate every 15 minutes between a new station at Glasgow Airport and Glasgow Central Station, calling at Paisley Gilmour Street.

As a result of the project, airport passengers that would normally approach the airport along the M8 from the east of the city and its conurbation, will be able to utilise public transport to Glasgow Central, and then the new rail link to the airport. It was estimated that passenger numbers using GARL will be 1,388,000 initially, rising to 1,849,000 in the long-run. Using the assumption that an average road journey saved by the opening of the rail link is 16km, the initial net saving in CO ₂ emissions is estimated to be 2ktCO ₂ per annum.

The revised anticipated construction completion date of 2013 is later than the original 2009 emissions impact estimate as published in the Environmental Statement.

Borders Railway

http://www.waverleyrailwayproject.co.uk/

• Document: Borders Railway Design Development Appraisal (2008), Transport Scotland
• Anticipated construction completion: 2013
• Estimated emissions impact: Cumulative decreases of -74ktCO ₂ by 2030, -238KtCO ₂ by 2050 and -415ktCO ₂ by 2070.

This project is to reinstate the former Waverley rail route from the Scottish Borders to Edinburgh.

The change in CO ₂ emissions has been calculated in line with STAG guidelines. For road traffic, the calculations are based on changes to the number of car journeys between the different stations, with each journey modelled separately. The emissions from the railway have been calculated in line with the Rail Emissions Model produced by the Strategic Rail Authority.

Overall, the Borders Railway Project will have a beneficial impact on CO ₂ levels. The most recent assessments suggest that it will save emissions from the opening year, and deliver significant long-term benefits, removing approximately 415ktCO ₂ over the appraisal period to 2070.

Edinburgh-Glasgow (Rail) Improvements Programme

• Document: Draft Outline Business Case (2009), Transport Scotland
• Anticipated construction completion: Phased to 2016
• Estimated emissions impact: Average annual savings of -20ktCO ₂, with cumulative savings of -1,181ktCO ₂ by 2075.

This intervention was identified early in the STPR and brought forward in a study which considered improvements to the capacity, frequency and journey time of rail services between Edinburgh and Glasgow.

The change in CO ₂ emissions has been calculated in line with guidance from the Department for Energy and Climate Change. Rail emissions have been calculated using the environmental module of the Network Modelling Framework. Changes in road emissions are assumed to be negligible and have been treated as zero.

The Edinburgh Glasgow Improvement Programme is expected to result in a significant reduction in emissions, through the electrification of approximately 350 km of single track and the resulting move from diesel to electric trains. The programme therefore achieves the majority of its emissions reductions through transferring emissions from the non-traded sector to the traded sector, as demonstrated in the table below.

Table 5: Change in CO ₂ emissions from EGIP by sector

Other

Edinburgh Tram Lines 1a and 1b

http://www.tiedinburgh.co.uk/

• Document: STAG part 2 appraisal (2006), Steer Davies Gleave / Colin Buchanan
• Anticipated construction completion: 2011
• Estimated emissions impact: +98ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2011; +177ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2031.

The proposed tram lines Phases 1a and 1b are due to open in 2011 with 1a running between Edinburgh Airport and Newhaven via Princes Street, and 1b running between Haymarket and Newhaven via the Roseburn corridor.

Extensive work has been undertaken to build new demand forecasting models to predict use of the tram and the impact upon use of other transport: bus, rail and car, rather than use existing models, such as DMRB, which have been used to assess other policies/projects. The results from this Edinburgh based model determined the emissions levels that are reported. Emissions from tram operation are calculated from estimates of power consumption for the tram and standard factors for CO ₂ emissions from UK electricity generation. The operation of Edinburgh Tram is predicted to have an annual power consumption of 11.04 kWh/veh-km. It is assumed that this power comes from the National Grid, using an emission factor of 0.43kg of CO ₂ per kWh of electricity generated.

The STAG reports that the Do-Something scenario i.e. building the tram network, includes a higher level of development along the tram corridor than in the Do-Minimum/Reference Case. The effect of this is to increase the overall volume of movements in the 'with tram' case, which could potentially include a higher number of car trips than in the Do-Minimum even after the switch from car to tram has taken place. The CO ₂ emissions resulting from power consumption by the tram are added to the additional emissions from road traffic. Both Phase 1a and 1a+1b would increase the level of CO ₂ emissions marginally, as a result of traffic re-routing and demand redistribution. Without the tram, it is possible that the developments would take place elsewhere, most likely in peripheral locations with a higher proportion of car usage and longer trip lengths, but these 'disbenefits' have not been accounted for. Without the effect of the larger assumed travel market in the with-tram situation, the increases in emissions would be approximately half of those reported.

Table 6 summarises this previous information. Whilst this may prove a useful reference table, it should be reiterated that these emissions estimates are not produced using a single, consistent methodology and, therefore, are not directly comparable.

Table 6: Emissions impact estimates of transport infrastructure projects

The emission estimates within this table are forecast increases in carbon dioxide emissions with the project compared to without the project in a given future assessment year. These estimates have been calculated using a variety of methodologies and, consequently, it is not statistically valid to aggregate the individual figures or directly compare them with one another.

3.3 Fiscal / Regulatory Measures

Methodology

The current split between devolved and reserved powers means that the majority of fiscal and regulatory measures are taken at either the UK or EU level.

The aggregate UK impact of these measures are published in Impact Assessments for individual measures and/or documents such as 'Climate Change: The UK Programme 2006' ¹⁷, 'Meeting the Energy Challenge: A White Paper on Energy' ¹⁸, and the annual HM Treasury ( HMT) Budget and Pre-Budget reports. For the purpose of the CAT, we treat these estimates as being the most reliable available. We do not attempt here to identify what proportion of the aggregate UK or European emissions impact is specifically realised in Scotland.

Freight Modal Shift Grants

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Transport/FT/freightgrants1

• Document: Internal calculation (2008)
• Implementation date: Ongoing
• Estimated emissions impact: Not quantified

The Scottish Government operates 4 freight grant schemes - Freight Facilities Grant ( FFG), Rail Environmental Benefits Procurement Scheme (Bulk) ( REPS) (B), Rail Environmental Benefits Procurement Scheme (Intermodal) ( REPS) (I) and Waterborne Freight Grant ( WFG). The aim of all these schemes is to generate environmental benefits by encouraging the transfer of freight from road to rail or water.

Under the FFG Scheme, grants are available towards the capital costs of inland waterway, rail, coastal & short sea shipping freight equipment in cases where the traffic would otherwise move by road. Under the REPS (B) and REPS (I) schemes, operating subsidy is available to enable rail to compete with road where road is the less costly option. Under the WFG scheme, operating subsidy is available during the start up phase of new inland waterway, coastal and short sea shipping routes where road is the less costly option.

Under these schemes 18 million kilometres of road freight traffic was transferred to rail or water during 2008. Assuming this was replaced by an equivalent distance travelled by less-polluting rail or waterborne traffic, the net emission reduction would have been approximately 14KtCO2e in 2008. Due to the uncertainty of demand for freight grants, we do not attempt to estimate their future impact.

Air Discount Scheme

http://www.airdiscountscheme.com/airds/CCC_FirstPage.jsp

• Document: Internal calculation (2008)
• Implementation date: 2006
• Estimated emissions impact: Negligible

The Air Discount Scheme was introduced in May 2006 as the then Scottish Executive took the view that the lack of affordable air services was acting as a barrier to social and commercial inclusion for remote communities in the Highlands & Islands.

It has been estimated that annual carbon emissions from the air services operating to and from the Highlands and Islands contribute less than 0.3% to the overall emissions from aviation for the whole of the UK, and so any changes in emissions in the Highlands and Islands will have a minimal impact on overall emissions from UK aviation. As the incremental number of passengers travelling in the H&Is as a result of the Air Discount Scheme is less than half the total numbers on these flights, we assume here that the ADS leads to a negligible increase in total emissions.

Removal of tolls from Forth and Tay bridges

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Transport/Road/toll-bridges/TollImpactStudy

• Document: Toll Impact Study (2007), Steer Davies Gleave
• Anticipated implementation date: 2008
• Estimated emissions impact: +7.5 KtCO ₂ to +9.0KtCO ₂ p.a. from 2008

The Toll Impact Study undertaken by Steer Davies Gleave found that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, as a result of removing tolls from the Forth and Tay bridges, resulted from an increase in traffic travelling through, in and around Fife only partially offset by a reduction in traffic travelling through Perthshire and Kinross. This trend is a result of the change in route choice between the M90 and the A91/92 once the tolls are removed.

Air passenger duty ( APD)

http://customs.hmrc.gov.uk/channelsPortalWebApp/channelsPortalWebApp.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=pageExcise_ShowContent&propertyType=document&id=HMCE_CL_000505

• Document: Pre-Budget Report (2008), HMT
• Anticipated implementation date: 2009
• Estimated emissions impact: -2.4MtCO ₂ in 2011-12 ( UK) ¹⁹

Air Passenger Duty ( APD) on internal flights was doubled from £5 to £10 with effect from 1st February 2007 in an attempt to reduce the demand for flights. From 1 November 2009, APD will be structured around four distance bands, set at intervals of 2,000 miles from London. This reform will ensure that those flying farther, and therefore contributing more to emissions from aviation, will pay more. The reformed APD delivers savings of 0.4MtCO ₂ in 2010-11, compared to current APD, and with radiative forcing applied this rises to 0.7MtCO ₂. APD will deliver savings of 0.6MtCO ₂ in 2011-12 (1.2MtCO ₂ with radiative forcing applied). Coupled with savings from doubling APD rates, in 2007, this achieves a combined reduction of 2.4MtCO ₂ (with radiative forcing applied) in 2011-12.

Smarter Choices, Smarter Places

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Transport/sustainable-transport/home-zones

• Document: Strategic Environmental Assessment (2008), The Scottish Government
• Implementation date: 2009
• Estimated emissions impact: -71ktCO ₂ p.a. from 2009

Smarter Choices Smarter Places is a Scottish Government partnership project with COSLA. Designed to increase active travel and public transport use and tackle transport emissions, it will contribute to a number of objectives in the Scottish Government's National Performance Framework, and Local Authorities' Single Outcome Agreements.

The following authorities and regional transport partnership have been successful in attracting Scottish Government funding:

• Dumfries & Galloway and SWestrans - Dumfries
• Dundee - Dundee Health Centra
• East Dunbartonshire - Kirkintilloch and Lenzie (under 'Transport and Development')
• East Renfrewshire - Barrhead
• Falkirk - Larbert and Stenhousemuir
• Glasgow - East End Accessibility (supporting Commonwealth Games)
• Orkney - Kirkwall

Activities in these Local Authorities will include: better public transport services and residential improvements; upgrades in walking and cycling infrastructures; studies into travel patterns and access; intensive marketing and awareness campaigns; and workshops and information packs.

Inclusion of aviation in EU Emission Trading Scheme

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:008:0003:01:EN:HTML

• Document: Pre-Budget Report (2008), HMT
• Anticipated implementation date: 2012
• Estimated emissions impact: -133MtCO ₂ p.a. in 2015 and 194MtCO ₂ p.a. in 2020 across Europe

A Directive to include aviation into the EU Emissions Trading Scheme ( ETS) was published in the Official Journal on 13 January 2009. The intention is for the EUETS to serve as a model for other countries considering similar national or regional schemes, and to link these to the EU scheme over time. Therefore, the EUETS can form the basis for wider, global action.

Estimated CO ₂ savings across Europe will be 133MtCO ₂ per year in 2015 and 194MtCO ₂ per year in 2020.

Sustainable Transport Measures

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Transport/sustainable-transport

• Document: N/A
• Implementation date: Ongoing
• Estimated emissions impact: Not quantified

The Scottish Government is committed to reducing emissions from the transport sector and, as well as the specific Smarter Choices, Smarter Places programme, substantial funding is given to public transport provision and promoting more sustainable travel and transport means. These sustainable transport policies include: eco-driving and SAFED; 'Smarter Choices' including travel plans, information and marketing; encouraging use of cleaner vehicles and alternative fuels where these are sustainable; increasing cycling through the new Cycling Action Plan and completion of the National Cycle Network. Evaluation programmes are being put in place for all of these measures to assess their impacts including GHG emissions.

New Car CO ₂ Regulation

http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/08/st03/st03741.en08.pdf

• Document: UK Impact Assessment, 2009 (DfT)
• Implementation date: Ongoing
• Estimated emissions impact: -7.6 to -9.2MtCO ₂ p.a. in 2020 across the UK

On 6 April 2009 the EU Council of Ministers formally adopted a regulation setting mandatory CO ₂ reduction targets for manufacturers registering vehicles in the EU. It sets an EU average emissions target of 130gCO ₂/km by 2012 and a longer-term target of 95gCO ₂/km by 2020. This represents a reduction in average new car CO ₂ emissions of around 40% on current levels.

Analysis by the Department for Transport (DfT) suggests that the regulation will deliver emissions reductions of between 7.6 and 9.2MtCO ₂ per year by 2020.

Fuel Duty

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/bud_bud09_index.htm

• Document: Budget Report (2009), HMT
• Implementation date: Ongoing
• Estimated emissions impact: -2MtCO ₂ p.a. by 2013-14 across the UK

It is the UK Government's policy that fuel duty rates should rise each year at least in line with inflation as the UK seeks to reduce polluting emissions and fund public services. As announced in Budget 2007 and confirmed in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report, main fuel duty rates rose by 1.84 pence per litre on 1 April 2009. Budget 2009 announced that main fuel duty will increase by a further 2 pence per litre on 1 September 2009, and by 1 penny per litre in real terms on 1 April each year from 2010 to 2013. This will save 2MtCO2 per year by 2013-14.

Biofuels and the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/bud_bud08_index.htm

• Document: Budget Report (2008), HMT
• Implementation date: Ongoing
• Estimated emissions impact: -2.6 to -3MtCO ₂ in 2010-11 from RTFO ( UK)
  -0.3MtCO ₂ in 2012-13 from abolition of the biofuels duty differential ( UK)

The King Review ²⁰ highlights that in the longer term, biofuels have the potential to make a significant contribution towards reducing emissions in the transport sector. However, in light of emerging evidence on indirect impacts from biofuels production, the UK Government in spring 2008 asked Professor Ed Gallagher to lead a study into the wider environmental and economic impacts of biofuels. Professor Gallagher reported that biofuels could contribute to a sustainable transport system, but that there is a risk that current policies could lead to a net emissions increase; loss of biodiversity; and contribute to rising prices for some commodities, notably oilseeds ²¹. As a consequence he recommended that the rate at which biofuels are incentivised through the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation should be slowed, reaching 5 per cent only in 2013-14. The UK Government accepted this recommendation, and is negotiating in Europe to ensure sustainable biofuel criteria across the EU.

The RTFO is expected to save between 2.6 to 3MtCO ₂ in 2010-11. The abolition of the biofuels duty differential is expected to deliver additional annual emissions savings of 0.3MtCO ₂ in 2012-13.

Reform of Vehicle Excise Duty

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/prebud_pbr08_index.htm

• Document: Pre-Budget Report (2008), HMT
• Anticipated implementation date: 2010
• Estimated emissions impact: Cumulative UK saving of 1.0 MtCO ₂ by 2020

Since 2001, vehicle excise duty ( VED) has been based on different rates depending on carbon dioxide emissions from cars. The UK Government announced further reforms of vehicle excise duty at Budget 2008 to incentivise the purchase and manufacture of more fuel-efficient cars. These included an increase in the number of VED bands from seven to thirteen, from April 2009. These new bands will reflect changes in the fuel efficiency of vehicles and will also provide a greater incentive for drivers choosing a lower-carbon version of car within their preferred class, whether purchasing in the new or second-hand market.

The subsequent Pre-Budget Report confirmed the introduction of the new bands in 2009. However, it also announced that there will now be no significant rate changes until 2010.

Reforms to VED, including the introduction of new bands from April 2009 and First-Year Rates from April 2010, are estimated to result in a cumulative UK saving of 1.0MtCO ₂ by 2020, including the impacts of staggering the reforms. However, this assessment only includes impacts in the new car market, and these figures will contribute to the delivery of the savings from the EU regulation on CO2 from cars, rather than constitute additional savings.

Company car tax

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/bud_bud08_index.htm

• Document: Budget Report (2008), HMT
• Anticipated implementation date: 2010-11
• Estimated emissions impact: -1.5 to -3.3MtCO ₂ per year in the long-term ( UK)

The UK Government announced in Budget 2008 that it will be increasing company car tax ( CCT) rates on all but the cleanest cars emitting less than 135gCO ₂ per km in 2010-11. CO ₂ emissions savings of the 2005 reformed CCT system are estimated to be significant, and are forecast to rise to between 1.5 and 3.3MtCO ₂ per year in the long-term.

As with the impact of VED above, these figures contribute to the delivery of the savings from the EU regulation on CO2 from cars, as opposed to additional savings.

Company car fuel benefit charge ( FBC)

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/bud_bud08_index.htm

• Document: Budget Report (2008), HMT
• Anticipated implementation date: 2010-11
• Estimated emissions impact: Not quantified

The number of company car drivers getting free fuel for private use has fallen by around 600,000 since 1997, partly as a result of changes to the company car tax system in April 2002 and changes to the fuel benefit rules in April 2003, helping to reduce levels of CO ₂ emissions, local air pollutants and congestion. Increasing the FBC in line with the changes in the retail prices index in 2008-09 will deliver a small additional reduction in CO ₂ emissions.

Ultra-low carbon vehicles in the UK

http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file51017.pdf

• Document: Ultra-low carbon vehicles in the UK (2009), DfT, BERR & DIUS
• Anticipated implementation date: 2011
• Estimated emissions impact: Not quantified ²²

Up to £20 million will be available to support the roll-out of charging infrastructure needed to grow the market for ultra-low carbon cars. Cities and regions, in conjunction with the private sector, will be able to bid for this seed funding.

The majority of the £250 million, however, will be used to reduce up-front costs of early electric and plug-in hybrid cars by between £2,000 and £5,000. The UK Government will begin discussions with the automotive and finance industries, as well as other key stakeholders, to explore how best to deliver this incentive from 2011.

Table 7 summarises this previous information. As with table 5 previously, these emissions estimates are not produced using a single, consistent methodology and, therefore, are not directly comparable.

Table 7: Emissions impact estimates of fiscal / regulatory measures

The emission estimates within this table are forecast increases in carbon dioxide emissions with the policy compared to without the policy in a given future assessment year. These estimates have been calculated using a variety of methodologies and, consequently, it is not statistically valid to aggregate the individual figures or directly compare them with one another.