Scottish Government

7 Key Findings & Recommendations ¹³

In this section the key findings and recommendations are presented.

7.1 Key Findings

The Scottish Food Supply Chain, like many other supply chains, is exposed to a broad range of vulnerabilities. This research project identified 33 events, or potential vulnerabilities, which were subsequently assessed in terms of their impact on the availability of food to Scottish consumers. As a result, the following key vulnerabilities were confirmed:

• Pandemic - e.g. an influenza pandemic which is likely to occur in one or more waves (possibly weeks or months apart), affecting up to half the Scottish population
• Land Contamination - e.g. arising from a chemical or nuclear industrial accident, affecting widespread food production areas
• Coastal Flooding - e.g. arising from over-topping of sea defences, widespread affecting two or more Scottish, and possibly one of the northern English, regions
• Food Scare - e.g. animal feed contamination incident, affecting several food stuffs
• Extreme Temperature (including Heavy Snow)
• Demonstration - e.g. co-ordinated demonstrations, affecting many sites
• Industrial Action - e.g. co-ordinated industrial action by Scottish Food Supply Chain staff, affecting many processing and retail sites.

7.1.1 Specific Geographic Considerations

The Scottish Food Supply Chain covers the full breadth of primary producers, processors, retailers, importers, exporters, and distributors. As such, it makes an invaluable economic and social contribution to Scotland. Although the Scottish Food Supply Chain is exposed to many of the same vulnerabilities as other parts of the UK, there are certain aspects which make Scottish consumers more/less susceptible, including:

• The Highland and Islands is more susceptible to those events (indicated in Column 3 of Appendix 5) affecting distribution and labour (e.g. E - Storms and Gales, E - Port Blockage, E - Bridge Collapse).
• Anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers in some parts of Scotland may hold higher stocks of foodstuffs, particularly where they have experienced previous food supply chain disruptions.

Therefore, when considering the impact of a vulnerability on the Scottish Food Supply Chain, it is important to understand any geographical factor, which might compound/mitigate the effect.

7.1.2 Special Food Chain Input Considerations for the Scottish Food Supply Chain

When considering each vulnerability, it is important to assess not just 'how big the risk is' but also how it will directly or indirectly affect the Scottish Food Supply Chain. Events that have a high, direct impact on a specific input could have a disproportionately high impact on those parts of the Scottish Food Supply Chain heavily reliant on this input. The food supply chain diagrams provided in Appendix 2 illustrate which part of the food supply chain depends on which inputs. Appendix 4 shows which events have a direct impact or indirect impact on each food chain input. Understanding which food chain inputs, and thus parts of the Scottish Food Supply Chain, are disproportionately affected will help to inform where interventions should be focused.

7.2 Recommendations

This research project identified four strategic and three tactical recommendations for RABS-Food.

7.2.1 Strategic Recommendations for RABS-Food

The strategic recommendations for RABS-Food are as follows.

7.2.1.1 Coordinated Business Continuity Planning

RABS-Food should take all possible practicable measures to ensure that all parts of the Scottish Food Supply Chain, as detailed in Appendices 1,2 and 3, are notified and annually updated with the main vulnerabilities (i.e. the 'top risks' listed in Appendix 5) facing the Scottish Food Supply Chain, in order that effective and consistent Business Continuity Plans ( BCPs) ¹⁴ can be developed and maintained.

This recommendation acknowledges that the key mitigation across the Scottish Food Supply Chain against many of its risks is the effectiveness of its BCPs. This recommendation will ensure that RABS-Food keeps the Scottish Food Supply Chain informed of new/emerging risks, so that individual organisations can choose appropriate contingency measures. This recommendation will support the following aspect of RABS-Food's remit:

• Ensure informed debate on the practicability of contingency/emergency plans and interventions.

The members of RABS-Food are best placed to identify effective means of communicating with the Scottish Food Supply Chain. Possible routes might include:

• Regular articles in trade publications and dedicated delegations at trade events, highlighting the need to consider the impact of key risks identified by RABS-Food
• A dedicated website, which might share best practice in terms of managing risks to the Scottish Food Supply Chain (similar to the rail industry's website http://www.opsweb.co.uk/

7.2.1.2 Conduct Full Scenario Analysis

RABS-Food should conduct further scenario analysis of the remaining events that have not been examined during this project to test the risk assessments and assumed preventative/ reactive controls across the remaining vulnerabilities. The three scenarios within this work considered four events, of which one was a key vulnerability (O-Food Scare). As a result of the three scenario analyses, a number of tactical recommendations are made (see below). It is important that RABS-Food conducts similar analysis for the remaining six vulnerabilities to test its assumptions and identify further tactical recommendations.

This recommendation will ensure that RABS-Food continually has a complete and accurate evidence base, to support the following aspects of its remit:

• Assess risks, identify preventative measures (to reduce or mitigate impact of disruption) and prepare and test plans
• Ensure informed debate on the practicability of contingency/emergency plans and interventions

This recommendation can be tackled by conducting a series of facilitated one-day workshops, where a sub-set of RABS-Food members would:

• Analyse or wargame scenarios involving the key vulnerabilities Test assumptions, both in terms of the level of risk and the effectiveness of control measures Identify tactical recommendations for particular parts of the Scottish Food Supply Chain

7.2.1.3 Annual Review of Potentially Disruptive Events

RABS-Food should review, on an annual basis, the list of events facing the Scottish Food Supply Chain, including their risk assessments, to ensure they are continually up-to-date. This recommendation will ensure that RABS-Food continually reviews the completeness and accuracy of its evidence base, thereby supporting the following aspect of its remit:

• Assess risks, identify preventative measures (to reduce or mitigate impact of disruption) and prepare and test plans.

This recommendation can be tackled by a facilitated one-day workshop, every twelve months, where a sub-set of RABS-Food members would:

• Review and reassess the list of 33 events/risks facing the Scottish Food Supply Chain
• Review existing or new control measures
• Consider any events that might require further scenario analysis/wargaming (e.g. if there is significant uncertainty regarding how effective the measures might be).
• Test its ability to contribute to assessing and advising on decisions on activity to deal with major incidents.

7.2.1.4 Bi-Annual Review of Mapping Information

RABS-Food should review, on a bi-annual basis, the food supply chain mapping information, key contact details and individual Scottish Food Supply Chain company information in order to ensure that it is maintained in a usable form to support the management of a food emergency.

7.2.2 Tactical Recommendations for RABS-Food

The following three tactical recommendations stem from the scenario analysis work within this project and underline the importance of conducting similar analysis across the remaining vulnerabilities facing the Scottish Food Supply Chain.

7.2.2.1 Mitigate Risks To Vulnerable Island Communities

RABS-Food should consider/recommend the following additional controls, identified within the scenario analysis for an island losing its sole Roll On-Roll Off ( RORO) ferry ramp:

• All islands which have a single RORO ferry ramp should be identified
• Emergency Planning Officers responsible for these islands should be made aware of this risk and its potential impact on local food supplies
• Ferry companies should pre-identify replacement vessels suitable for unloading alongside non- RORO dock facilities, charter contact arrangements, port equipment to (un)load them and palletisation/packing constraints
• RABS-Food should establish the routine food requirements for a community of 1000 people in order that replacement deliveries can be arranged and suitably packaged at short notice from a suitable grocery supplier. This information could be obtained from the manager of a representative island supermarket eg MacNeil Stores in Castlebay on Barra (01871 810 432)
• All controls related to RORO ferry incidents should be regularly tested and reviewed by the relevant stakeholders
• Local Emergency Planning Officers should familiarise themselves with the procedures to request military ration packs to be delivered to a mainland airport in the eventuality that local or other suppliers are unable to rearrange suitable food supplies to meet demand

7.2.2.2 Mitigate Risks To Disruption In Diesel Supplies

RABS-Food should consider/recommend the following additional controls, identified within the scenario analysis for an explosion at a major oil refinery or fuel distribution facility.

• Fuel rationing should be immediately (rather than on an ad hoc basis) introduced across all retailers and, if required, enforced by a police presence
• Determine, in advance of any disruption to diesel supply, differing volumes/priorities for diesel across the Scottish Food Supply Chain
• RABS-Food should formally 'war game' this scenario with all relevant stakeholders due to its potentially serious and widespread impact on the Scottish Food Supply Chain

7.2.2.3 Mitigate Risks Resulting From An Avian Flu Outbreak

RABS-Food should consider/recommend the following additional controls, identified within the scenario analysis for an Avian Flu outbreak preventing use of all Scottish eggs.

• All food manufacturers in Scotland should be requested to determine the impact and contingency measures necessary to manage a short-notice withdrawal of Scottish supplied eggs and egg products in order to include this eventuality in their Business Continuity Plans.