Scottish Government

Executive Summary

The Resilience Advisory Board for Scotland ( RABS) has established a group, RABS - Food, to take forward emergency and contingency planning for any food supply chain emergency in Scotland. This research project has been commissioned to assist RABS - Food to help meet its strategic objectives of: assessing risks; identifying preventative measures; preparing and testing plans; and establishing and improving communication links between all relevant stakeholders.

Robust contingency planning is required throughout the Scottish Food Supply Chain however, prior to this project, no strategic and comprehensive evidence base existed to support informed decision making, planning or emergency response. This project was therefore conceived by RABS-Food to fulfil the following objectives: (1) To provide a comprehensive mapping of the Scottish Food Supply Chain to a level of detail necessary to inform strategic decision making by RABS-Food; (2) To identify vulnerabilities in the Scottish Food Supply Chain in order that these can be effectively managed through established risk management arrangements; (3) To analyse the resilience of the Scottish Food Supply Chain to disruption events in order to prioritise and guide subsequent mitigation activities to be managed by RABS-Food; (4) To identify key contacts and organisations that are either affected by potential disruption events to the Scottish Food Supply Chain or who should be involved in response to such events in order to speed up the response of RABS-Food to such an event. A team led by AEA and including the Scottish Agricultural College and Risk Solutions has conducted this project to provide the information necessary to meet these objectives and this report contains the findings of this research, its conclusions and recommendations.

The project investigated, mapped and analysed the end-to-end Scottish Food Supply Chain with the exception of primary agri-suppliers, the alcoholic beverage industry and matters related to food consumption (both within domestic households and via food service). Retail and wholesale companies were included within the study but, given the project's strategic objectives, not down to the level of individual retail food outlets. The project has mapped the full range of food supply chains, starting with their core inputs. Specific mapping diagrams have been produced for the key sectors: dairy products; soft fruit; potatoes; fruit & vegetables (excluding soft fruit & potatoes); milling wheat; sugar, rice and other cereals; red meat; poultry meat; pig meat; eggs; farmed fish & farmed shellfish; wild fish and wild caught shellfish.

In addition to these mapping diagrams, contact, address and location details for the more significant companies involved in each supply chain have been captured and recorded. This information is contained within the appendices of this report and in an interactive web-based GIS mapping tool that will provide a valuable on-line tool for future mitigation planning or in responding to a real-life food emergency. ¹ In addition, a list of key contacts within all major stakeholder organisations has been produced that will speed up RABS-Food's response when managing future incidents. Such information will need to be kept up to date to ensure its utility over the longer term.

A detailed analysis of the risks facing the Scottish Food Supply Chain has been conducted. As incidents affecting the food supply chain may arise outside the food chain's immediate boundaries, eg disruption to the fuel supply etc, this analysis has followed a structured methodology that is consistent with risk and contingency planning across the UK including in the Scottish Government where responsibility for managing such eventualities lies. The analysis initially identified a total of 88 potentially disruptive events. This list was then refined down to 33 events that would have a significant direct or indirect impact on the Scottish Food Supply Chain.

These events were then analysed to determine the nature, scale and likelihood of their impact, what measures already exist to mitigate them and what further mitigation is required. In order to validate this work and add further detail to the analysis, three scenarios were developed and wargamed to determine the impact on food supplies. These were: (1) the loss of an island's sole roll-on/roll-off ferry facility; (2) an outbreak of Avian Flu causing an interruption in Scottish egg supplies; (3) an explosion at a major on-shore refinery causing serious disruption in diesel supplies across Scotland. A full description of the findings of this research and analysis is contained within the main body and appendices of this report.

The project has identified a number of key findings and recommendations. Research has identified that the Scottish Food Supply Chain is vulnerable to the following disruptive events:

• Pandemic - e.g. an influenza pandemic which is likely to occur in one or more waves (possibly weeks or months apart), affecting up to half the Scottish population
• Land Contamination - e.g. arising from a chemical or nuclear industrial accident, affecting widespread food production areas
• Coastal Flooding - e.g. arising from over-topping of sea defences, widespread affecting two or more Scottish, and possibly one of the northern English, regions
• Food Scare - e.g. animal feed contamination incident, affecting several food stuffs
• Extreme Temperature (including Heavy Snow)
• Demonstrations - e.g. co-ordinated demonstrations, affecting many sites
• Industrial Action - e.g. co-ordinated industrial action by Scottish Food Supply Chain staff, affecting many processing and retail sites.

In addition, remote and island communities were found to be particularly vulnerable to disruption in their food supplies. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that populations in such areas routinely hold greater supplies of food at home, thus mitigating this vulnerability to a limited extent. It is suggested that this behaviour is due to experience of food disruptions in the past

This research project has identified four strategic and three tactical recommendations for RABS-Food as follows:

Strategic

• RABS-Food should take all possible practicable measures to ensure that all parts of the Scottish Food Supply Chain, as detailed in Appendices 1, 2 and 3, are notified and annually updated with the main vulnerabilities (i.e. the 'top risks') facing the Scottish Food Supply Chain, in order that effective and consistent Business Continuity Plans ( BCPs) ² can be developed and maintained.
• RABS-Food should conduct further scenario analysis of the remaining events that have not been examined during this project to test the risk assessments and assumed preventative/reactive controls across the remaining vulnerabilities.
• RABS-Food should review, on an annual basis, the list of events facing the Scottish Food Supply Chain, including their risk assessments, to ensure they are continually up-to-date. This recommendation will ensure that
• RABS-Food continually reviews the completeness and accuracy of its evidence base, thereby better supporting all aspects of its remit.
• RABS-Food should review, on a bi-annual basis, the food supply chain mapping information, key contact details and individual Scottish Food Supply Chain company information in order to ensure that it is maintained in a usable form to support the management of a food emergency.

Tactical (arising from scenario analysis)

• RABS-Food should consider additional controls, identified within the scenario analysis for an island losing its sole Roll On-Roll Off ( RORO) ferry ramp including: identifying all islands which have a single RORO ferry ramp; notifying local Emergency Planning Officers of this risk and its potential impact on local food supplies; ensuring ferry companies pre-identify replacement vessels and facilities and establishing the routine food requirements for a community of 1,000 people in order that replacement deliveries can be arranged and suitably packaged at short notice.
• RABS-Food should consider additional controls, identified within the scenario analysis for an explosion at a major oil refinery/fuel distribution facility to: initiate fuel rationing immediately (rather than on an ad hoc basis) across all retailers, enforced if necessary by a police presence; determine, in advance of any disruption to supply, differing volumes/priorities for diesel across the Scottish Food Supply Chain. Further detailed wargaming of this scenario is recommended.
• RABS-Food should consider additional controls, identified within the scenario analysis for an Avian Flu outbreak preventing use of all Scottish eggs to ensure that food manufacturers in Scotland should be requested to determine the impact and contingency measures necessary to manage a short-notice withdrawal of Scottish supplied eggs and egg products in order to include this eventuality in their Business Continuity Plans.