1.1.9 Conclusions
There is a growing perception that the global food system is under greater threat of instability than at almost any time in the last fifty years. A combination of climate change, peak oil, the recent Asiatic economic boom and even more recent economic turbulence suggest that long-established food systems may be compromised and developed western economies may face a greater threat of unstable globalised production and distribution systems.
Although the risk of supply disruption to affluent consumers remains rather small in the short term, the medium-term risk is much greater. Whether action should be taken to enhance food security to enhance the sustainability of food supply chains is likely to be a highly contested area. Certainly, the unsustainability of many production systems is recognised, with adverse impacts on sustainability arising from reduced water availability and possible hydrocarbon scarcity. Scottish agriculture can weather the former rather better than many competitors; the latter, however, poses a major threat.
Paradoxically, the large scale producer, processor or retailer may be better positioned to create sustainability gains in their part of the food system than smaller producers. There is some evidence that organic production systems may not always be virtuous in sustainability terms, especially when involving long-distance movement of produce. Large producers or retailers may have the commercial muscle to force change along the supply chain, in ways that other actors cannot. Finally, it is conceivable that the resurgence of food artisanship carries with it a higher environmental footprint than larger scale production systems where environmental economies of scale may be realisable.
There are major difficulties in considering healthiness and sustainability of food systems together. It is possible to have health gains which have negative effects on aggregate sustainability and sustainability gains with negative effects on health. Both healthiness and sustainability are multi-facetted attributes of the highly complex socio-ecological systems that comprise the human food production, processing, distribution and consumption system.
There is little published evidence to reveal whether aggregatively Scottish food supply chains have become more or less sustainable in recent times. The apparent growing appeal of regional and local food should not mask the fact that Scotland has been a major food exporter and, certainly with a weak £, has European comparative advantage in beef production and malting barley production. The products associated with these sectors are highly important export earners for Scotland.
There is no proper evidence of sustainability trends in Scottish food supply chains based on the use of indicators approaches. Such a study would be highly revealing, especially when trends over time can be plotted.
The scope of marketing to change behaviours is probably modest. Other regulatory approaches may be needed to avert both a health crisis and an environmental crisis. Whilst the power of marketing to influence brand choice is uncontestable, the power of social marketing to counter aggressive marketing of foods which potentially compromise health is rather limited.
There is a danger of over-elaborate systems of green accounting to explore food system sustainability. Rather than developing over-elaborate systems of accounting with potentially high transaction costs of measurement and monitoring, it may be better to work with a reduced set of indicators. Among the indicators used in the NPF, the most important in relation to food probably relate to ecological footprint. However, the estimation of the ecological footprint of different parts of the Scottish food system remains a challenging activity and creates a significant demand for data from food chain actors. The case for a modest extension of indicators to explore sustainability of the Scottish food system is strong.