Scottish Government

SECTION 1 Executive Summary

Background to Think Tank

The Scottish Government is committed to the delivery of a national food and drink policy. To support this, a think tank was organised by the Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate ( RERAD), Scottish Government on 3-4th March 2009. The discussions were around both external and internal factors influencing the continuity of food supplies. Eight academic experts took part in the think tank. Other participants included senior policy representatives from the relevant divisions of the Scottish Government, Welsh Assembly Government and the Northern Ireland Government. The think tank was chaired by Professor Maggie Gill, Chief Scientific Adviser and Director of RERAD and facilitated by staff from RERAD.

Participants' views of key food security issues

When asked to state what they thought was the most important food security issue, participants put forward the following ideas. These reflect individual perspectives of participants.

Main Discussion on Factors Influencing Food Security

What is Food Security?

The term food security has a range of meanings. First of all, food security and self-sufficiency are different concepts and the terms should not be used interchangeably. Second, several definitions of food security exist and care should be taking when choosing which one to use. Third, all levels of food security - global, national, regional, community and household - should be considered. Fourth, there is also the time-dimension to consider as the issues and solutions will differ depending on whether short or longer term food security is being discussed.

External Factors and Scotland's Food Security

Global forces such as population growth, climate change, resource depletion and commodity prices have a major impact on food security of individual countries including Scotland. To address these and other trends means moving towards more sustainable production and consumption. However, at the same time growing demand for food has to be met by increasing productivity. Water supply issues also have to be considered - as a consequence of climate change there may be land lost to flooding as well as water distribution issues.

A key part of developing a more sustainable food system is considering how food systems will respond to climate change. Potential benefits of climate change have to be recognised. For example breeding of grass fed animals, crop and fruit and vegetable production could be expanded with agricultural production becoming more diverse. The uncertainty associated with climate change makes it more difficult to plan for, however some projections can be made based on scenarios available.

By sharing knowledge from its agricultural research, Scotland, alongside other developed countries, can assist countries adversely affected by climate change to adapt to new conditions. Maintaining capacity for food production above a certain threshold can provide a safety net, as lead times for some produce are very long, preventing markets from responding to changes in demand immediately. It is also important to have built up the knowledge base to back up future policy design.

Scottish Climate Change Bill commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 means that some agricultural land may have to be used for forestry, thus presenting another challenge for food production.

Volatility in global commodity prices has a significant impact on Scottish producers and consumers. Public grain stocks can, in theory, protect from such volatility but in practice these models are very costly and can break down. There also are not any well known examples of successful implementation of such schemes.

The UK imports the majority of its food from the EU. It is also an important market for Scotland's exports. In addition, EU legislation has an impact on producers and consumers of food in its member states. Whilst clear legislation allows better operation of markets, on some occasions, its unintended consequences could be detrimental to individual countries e.g. recent pesticide legislation may harm productivity of Scottish agriculture and affect overall UK output and hence domestically available supplies.

Internal Factors and Scotland's Food Security

Scotland's large proportion of land in Less Favoured Areas, its geographical positioning and demographics mean that some food security issues are different to those in the rest of the UK. High self-sufficiency should not be set as a goal as it would not improve food security. Scotland would be unable to meet the consumption requirements of its population as they are now, due to taste preferences, seasonality of some produce, reliance on England further down the supply chain, reliance on imports of inputs into agricultural production and variation of production levels in different commodities.

Whilst local food supply chains should be supported, it is important to avoid investing in unprofitable processing facilities. Questions also arise whether commodities such as barley and wheat should be used for the production of whisky, rather than food. Expansion of aquaculture is the only way to increase fish production but there are dependencies on fish meal and oil and sustainable sources of these are not easily obtainable.

Interdependence of Energy Security and Food Security

As the agricultural labour force has shrunk gradually over time, the use of machinery has increased, making the sector very energy dependent. Currently, the biggest fossil fuel consumption in agriculture is in manufacture of fertilizers and cultivation of land. Grain drying also imposes high energy requirements in Scottish agriculture. Heavy reliance on energy is undesirable both due to the environmental considerations and because the supply of fossil fuels is limited.

To decrease the dependence of agriculture on fossil fuel energy without compromising yields, appropriate technologies must be developed, thus more research into renewable energy options is needed. This should not be limited to agriculture and the whole of the supply chain should be considered including consumption (e.g. consumer transport to shops and cooking). The main dependency areas should be identified and fossil fuel use limited to those processes where it is most essential, replacing them with renewable energy where possible. A range of options should be explored, including solar energy and waste-generated energy.

Given the dependency of food production, processing and distribution on fossil fuels, changes in oil prices have an impact on food supply chains. However greater precision is needed in quantifying the scale of this impact and the speed with which the food systems can respond to such energy price changes.

Resilience of the Food Supply Chains

There is a risk of food supply chains being disrupted by crises such as disease outbreaks and strikes and there are roles for government, the industry and the consumer to plan for and manage such risks.

Governments can undertake risk planning by assessing the probabilities of potential disruptions and estimating their associated costs but can also take on responsibilities as a regulator and an information provider and both to avert crises and lessen their effects. There are contingency plans in place such as that demonstrated by the UK and Scottish governments' response to the Grangemouth refinery strike. However, governments' efforts should be backed up by the industry's contingency planning.

Households are the parties that ultimately bear the consequences of food supply chain disruption and it could be argued that they can manage the risks by changing diet through substitution. However, support from government and industry would still be needed to avoid panic buying exacerbating the situations. Also, some disruptions, e.g. transport strikes, may affect the supply of many types of foods, making substitution difficult without compromising the acceptable dietary requirements.

Household Food Security

Household access to food is important for household food security and both retail and transport provision play a part. Access issues could be different in rural and urban areas. Some low income remote rural areas are especially vulnerable, due to low car ownership and difficulties in arranging internet order deliveries. Public transport provision is crucial in such areas, as is transport to and from mainland for island communities. Stores in locations with small catchment areas and those involving higher distribution costs are less attractive locations for retailers putting those areas at risk of low retail provision. Whist there is no clear evidence to suggest that "food deserts" are widespread in the UK, it is a potential risk that must be considered.

Food waste is a problem in Scotland and reducing it would diminish environmental concerns. More information on the gap between what is produced and what is consumed is needed to address this problem. Grow your own schemes are also a way of increasing household food security and also educating people about how food is grown. However, the number of allotments is limited and not everyone can participate in this activity.

More insight into affordability is needed and food prices should be examined across different geographical areas and incomes, as some variability has been detected by previous studies.

Suggestions for Policy Development

Participants were asked for general policy recommendations which in their view could potentially have positive effects on Scotland's food security status. These reflect views of individual participants.

• Unpack its definitions of food security and be clear on what is meant by it
• Assess the impact of global challenges and the speed and timescale of change
• Invest in R&D into Scottish production and long-term trends
• Use evidence to plan for future agriculture
• Recognise the benefits to local economies
• Take into account land use irreversibility
• Recognise that some food security issues may be temporary in nature
• Match primary production with domestic demand to increase self-sufficiency
• Export commodities such as dairy and meat where there is capacity
• Build evidence on interdependence of food and energy
• Replace fossil fuel inputs by renewable energy (e.g. solar) where possible
• Increase energy efficiency for different production systems
• Strive for sustainable farming in terms of energy use, biodiversity and water
• Improve people's confidence and trust in government
• Produce more by moving to more marginal land
• Focus on price as well as volume, maintaining affordability
• Plan for future water challenges
• Provide information to businesses and consumers
• Strengthen resilience by planning for short term breaks in food supply chains
• Increase and encourage investment in food producing businesses
• Take a consumer oriented approach
• Reduce food waste
• Work toward sustainable, healthy and economically efficient diet