4. Emission Trends
The European Union has reported that the Union and most Member States are on track to deliver their Kyoto Protocol commitments on greenhouse gas emissions: the EU-15 expects to achieve an 8% reduction. The EU's greenhouse gas emissions are falling due to the combined impact of policies and measures resulting from the European Climate Change Programme, domestic action taken by Member States and the restructuring of European industry, particularly the transition to the open market economy in central and eastern Europe in the early 1990s.
In Scotland, net greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 (the latest available figures) were 59 MtCO 2e (million tonnes CO 2 equivalent) 15, 13.4% lower than the 1990-95 international baseline of 68 MtCO 2e. The reduction in emissions since the early 1990s is mainly due to a shift away from heavy industry. Emissions in Scotland rose by 5.4% from 2005 to 2006, mostly due to a shift to coal power generation due to high gas prices. In 2006, Scotland was responsible for 9.1% of UK net emissions. UK emissions fell by 1.7% from 2006 to 2007 16. Early indications are that Scottish emissions will also have fallen in 2007. Scotland's emissions figures are subject to much greater uncertainties than UK figures.
Chart 1: Scotland's Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2006
Note: Base year is 1990 for CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O and 1995 for the F-gases.
The chart excludes emissions from international aircraft and international aviation which are discussed in chapter 8.
Source: AEA Energy and Environment
Energy supply (40.5%) and Transport (21.5%) account for the biggest share of emissions and were higher in 2006 than the international baseline of 1990-95. Road transport accounted for 83% of transport emissions in 2006. All other sectors - business & industry, agriculture, residential, waste management - have reduced their emissions. Depending on the activities involved, land use change can be a source or a sink of CO 2. Currently, the amount of CO 2 being absorbed into soils, vegetation and forests in Scotland means it is a net sink of CO 2.
Table 1: Scotland's Greenhouse Gas Net Emissions by Sector, 2006 17
Sector | Baseline (1990-95) Mt CO 2e | 2006 Mt CO 2e | Change (Baseline to 2006) Mt CO 2e | Change (Baseline to 2006) % | % of Scottish net emissions 2006 | % of UK 2006 |
|---|
Energy Supply | 22.31 | 23.91 | 1.60 | 7.2% | 40.5% | 10% |
|---|
Transport | 11.18 | 12.69 | 1.51 | 13.5% | 21.5% | 9% |
|---|
Business & Industry | 12.60 | 8.06 | -4.54 | -36.1% | 13.6% | 7% |
|---|
Agriculture | 9.65 | 7.88 | -1.77 | -18.4% | 13.3% | 16% |
|---|
Residential | 7.87 | 7.49 | -0.39 | -4.9% | 12.7% | 9% |
|---|
Waste Management | 5.77 | 2.52 | -3.25 | -56.3% | 4.3% | 11% |
|---|
Public | 1.31 | 0.99 | -0.32 | -24.1% | 1.7% | 9% |
|---|
Land Use Change | -2.52 | -4.49 | -1.97 | 78.4% | -7.6% | 226% |
|---|
All sectors | 68.17 | 59.04 | -9.12 | -13.4% | 100.0% | 9% |
|---|