3. Framework and Targets
3.1 Overview
Tackling climate change requires international action and Scotland is playing its part in delivering United Kingdom and European Union targets on climate change including those set by the Kyoto Protocol. Scottish Ministers' policy is that Scotland should demonstrate what can be achieved by a small country and be seen as an example of international best practice in order to influence the international community through the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United Nations to set and achieve ambitious climate change goals.
3.2 United Nations
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol commit s developed countries to reduce overall emissions by 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-12. The EU-15 target is 8% and (under the EU principle of common but differentiated responsibilities) the UK target is 12.5%. The United Nations hopes to agree a successor to the Kyoto Protocol in Copenhagen in December 2009.
The Scottish Government was represented in Poznan, Poland, in December 2008 at the Climate Group's States and Regions Alliance meeting taking place alongside the 14 th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
3.3 European Union
Scottish Ministers fully support the European Union's political commitment to a low carbon future. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change science findings, the European Union has stated that the world has warmed by an average of 0.76°C since pre-industrial times and this temperature rise is accelerating. Sea levels rose almost twice as fast between 1993 and 2003 as during the previous three decades. Without action to limit future emissions, the global average temperature rise is likely to increase further by 1.80°C to 4°C this century, and in the worst case scenario by as much as 6.4°C 10. The European Union considers it vital to prevent global warming of more than 2°C above the pre-industrial level as there is considerable scientific evidence that beyond this threshold irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes could occur.
The European Commission's analysis shows that global emissions will have to be stabilised by around 2020, then reduced by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050, with developed countries collectively cutting their emissions to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 and by 60-80% by 2050. The European Union has unilaterally agreed a new Climate and Energy Package 11 which aims to deliver cuts in emissions of 20% by 2020 which will be increased to 30% cuts in the event of a global deal.
The European Union has agreed to strengthen and expand its Emissions Trading Scheme (which covers power generation and energy-intensive industry accounting for around 40% of the European Union's overall emissions) from 2013, aiming to deliver 21% emissions cuts by 2020 compared to 2005, with international aviation being covered from 2012. The European Union has also introduced for the first time a target for the non-traded sectors to cut their emissions by 10% of 2005 levels by 2020 (this includes transport (except aviation), housing, agriculture and waste and accounts for almost 60% of the European Union's overall emissions). The European Union has also announced funding for 12 demonstration projects for Carbon Capture and Storage.
3.4 United Kingdom
The Scottish Government is a partner with the other UK administrations in the Climate Change Act 2008 12. The Act, which received Royal Assent on 26 November 2008, established a system of 5-year carbon budgets to manage the trajectory of UK emission reductions to a target of 80% cuts by 2050. It also allowed for the establishment of the Committee on Climate Change to provide advice to the UK Government and Devolved Administrations on the setting of carbon budgets and other climate change issues.
In its first report 13 in December 2008, the Committee proposed a set of "interim" carbon budgets covering the five-year periods 2008-12, 2013-17, and 2018-22, These budgets would see the UK's greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 fall to at least 34% below their 1990 level. The Committee also proposed more stretching "intended" budgets, designed to apply following the agreement of a global deal on emissions reductions. The intended budget would see emissions reduce by 42% by 2020.
On April 22, the UK Government announced that it would set its carbon budgets based on the Committee's interim budgets 14. The Committee will be asked to review its recommended intended budgets following a global deal and once the European Commission has brought forward proposals to share out the EU target. The Scottish Government had written to the UK Government in advance of its decision welcoming the level of ambition recommended by the Committee and committing to contributing towards meeting the carbon budgets.
The Committee believes that the carbon budgets can feasibly be reached through actions including the rapid decarbonisation of electricity production and energy efficiency measures, with green electricity being increasingly deployed for heat and transport, and the decarbonisation of industry. The Committee said that more of our electricity will have to come from wind power and energy efficiency at home and work will also be important e.g. switching lights off when not in use, turning the central heating or air conditioning down, using energy-efficient lightbulbs and appliances, and installing insulation. The Committee also suggested that electric cars will gradually replace petrol cars.
3.5 Scotland
The Scottish Government's Economic Strategy sets 2 key targets on sustainability:
- Reduce emissions by 2011 (compared to 2005).
- Reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 (compared to 1990-95).
The Climate Change (Scotland) Bill, introduced into the Scottish Parliament in December 2008, requires Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions, including our share of those from international aviation and shipping, to be at least 80% lower in 2050 compared with 1990 levels. An interim target will require emissions to be at least 34% below 1990 levels by 2020; and 42% by 2020 if EU nations decide to increase their 2020 emission reduction target to 30% below 1990 levels, following a global deal on climate change. The Bill also requires the Scottish Government to act:
- to reduce greenhouse gas emissions year on year, every year from 2011 to 2050
- to increase the rate of reduction from 2020 onwards to at least 3% per year
- to specify more detailed annual targets in 2010, for each year to 2022.