APPENDIX 1
Methodology
The sample
We asked the Scottish Prison Service to identify offenders who met the following three criteria:
- had committed serious sex or violent crimes;
- were released from five specific prisons in the 18 month period prior to December 2007; and
- were subject to statutory supervision in the community post-release.
This initial sample generated several hundred offenders.
We decided to select only male prisoners for the sample because men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of violent and sexual crimes.
We then examined this sample to remove those about whom little data was available and to identify and focus on those with a pattern of serious offending in their previous and most recent convictions. HMICS checked each offender in police intelligence systems to determine the level of police activity and concern around each released offender. We asked local authorities to confirm that the offenders chosen lived in their area and were subject to statutory supervision.
Some offenders had returned to custody, or their period of statutory supervision had expired. In a few instances, the offender had moved away from the location altogether. When the offender was not located where expected, or was unsuitable for other reasons, the local authority provided the details of all offenders in their area meeting the sample criteria, and we randomly selected substitutes.
The final sample of 62 individuals consisted of equal numbers of sex and violent offenders. Among the 31 sex offenders, all but five had committed crimes that had caused actual physical harm to the victim. Seventeen offenders had convictions for rape, with adult and child rapes equally distributed. Over half of the sex offenders had committed sex offences against children and were therefore Schedule 1 offenders. With the 31 violent offenders, the large majority were guilty of assault to severe injury and permanent disfigurement, but there were six murder or related convictions (i.e. offences such as attempted murder or culpable homicide). A smaller number of violent offenders had committed a Schedule 1 offence.
The community-based sample consisted largely of parole, non-parole and extended sentence cases (throughcare cases) with only five offenders subject to probation orders. Five probation cases were included as substitutes.
Fieldwork phase 1
We visited prisons and the local authority areas that were the home areas for the offenders in our sample.
We reviewed the management of 62 sexual and violent offenders across 17 local authority areas. Inspectors also visited five prisons, retrospectively examining the prison-based arrangements that were in place for the release of a subset of 16 offenders. We undertook a review of prison social work case files and healthcare files.
Inspectors reviewed all 62 offenders in the sample by visiting the local authority concerned and, using a structured inspection questionnaire, read files, spoke to the social worker, and where possible interviewed other key professionals involved in the case. We also attempted to interview the offender to identify how he rated his own risk, understood his risk assessment and risk management plan and how effectively supported he felt to stay out of trouble. Around 30 offenders consented to interview.
Before commencing, we took advice from statisticians about the sample. We did not intend this relatively small sample to provide statistical significance, but the qualitative depth of our review of each case meant that it provided a reliable basis to detect recurrent issues, which was our main requirement.
We examined the management of sixteen offenders in five prisons: five at HMP Dumfries, three at HMP Peterhead, three at HMP Shotts, three at the Open Estate and two at HMYOI Polmont. One was a life sentence prisoner and the others were serving determinate sentences of between two and 12 years. The life sentence prisoner had a punishment component of seven years. Five of the group sampled had extended sentences (a sentence combining a custodial component with a period of intensive community supervision) ranging from three months to eight years. Eight prisoners had convictions for sex offences and the remainder for crimes of violence.
Six of the prisoners had convictions for offences against children and two for raping an adult victim. The violent offences were murder, attempted murder, assault to severe injury and permanent disfigurement, robbery with a weapon and a firearms offence.
Fieldwork phase 2
The inspection team analysed the findings from phase 1 to identify key themes. We selected Fife, Dumfries and Galloway, and Glasgow City as the main focus areas for the second phase of the inspection because of the prevalence of offenders from these areas in the sample and because the quite different demographic and geographic profile of each authority area allowed examination of a variety of issues relating to community supervision and offender management.
We visited these areas in summer 2008 to speak with groups of key staff and managers from across the responsible agencies (including those with a 'duty to co-operate' through MAPPA); interview senior managers; and speak to relevant key stakeholders. Inspectors also consulted the local Community Justice Authority ( CJA) Chief Officers for each of the focus areas and the local MAPPA co-ordinators. In addition, as part of the second phase of the review, all eight Scottish police forces completed a questionnaire about their management of offenders at high risk of causing serious harm and we reviewed the police management of a subset of offenders in the original sample.
In addition, we visited every police force in Scotland to meet with operational and management teams to assess progress with the police implementation of MAPPA and to examine police capacity to respond to missing or wanted offenders.
The final parts of the evidence gathering process included a specific consultation with the Risk Management Authority, because of its statutory duty to promote effective risk assessment and management and with the Parole Board for Scotland, because of its role in recommending to Scottish Ministers certain prisoners for release and in deciding on any required licence conditions applicable on release. There were information-gathering sessions with the Public Protection Unit and Community Justice Services Division within the Scottish Government's Police and Community Safety and Justice Directorates. We also arranged a national consultation event. Professionals attended from a range of agencies across Scotland to discuss the key inspection themes and contribute their views to the inspection.