Scottish Government

Protect and enhance biodiversity, flora or fauna

A number of planned adaptation responses will result in habitat creation of enhancement. These include the creation of habitat networks, rewilding of river catchments to slow run-off, and programmes of managed coastal realignment.

As a direct effect of climate change species migration will occur and there may be species loss due to lack of climate space, and direct climate impacts such as erosion. There will also be changes in water quality which may impact on habitats and species as a result of both direct and adaptation responses. Pests and diseases may impact on type and distribution of species. There will be impacts on the marine environment and marine species with potential species loss and migration.

The current policy framework does not make clear how the factors causing habitat fragmentation interact with the policy framework to support habitat creation. There is a lack of a clear framework on how protected sites are supported or protected from climate change impacts. It is unclear how habitat loss and habitat creation balance, and the value of loss or damage to existing sites compared to the creation of new habitat. There are unknown impacts associated with the future risks from non-native species and a need for further work on colonisation by non-native species as a result of climate change.

Biodiversity is subject to a range of influencing factors as a result of climate change and these will act in a number of ways resulting in a mixture of positive and negative impacts. There is a high degree of uncertainty and requirement for further research on these impacts and therefore biodiversity is considered overall to be vulnerable to climate change.

The Adaptation Actions identified in The Framework under the heading of 'Exposure' will have an overall positive impact on the objective of protecting and enhancing biodiversity, flora and fauna. Improving the evidence and knowledge base of climate change impacts will help to address the uncertainty surrounding the effects on biodiversity. The support of specific projects to address habitat and species climate induced changes (such as the 'Identification of Species Extinction Risk' and the Fund Shorelook Project) are of particular benefit as they will result in targeted action for biodiversity through associated management proposals. These should help reduce the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and help ensure that biodiversity issues are considered in adaptation responses.

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Most of the research and actions are ongoing or still to be completed and therefore actual positive effects on biodiversity, flora and fauna will be achieved over the medium to long term.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measure/s which follow/s from the research and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should make clear that the improved knowledge and evidence base is used to inform adaptation policy priorities for the biodiversity sector.

Promote human health and well being

Current trends of population growth and poor health will compound negative direct effects of climate change such as food and water borne diseases, and the impact of heatwaves and flooding. These effects may impact disproportionately on some high risk groups. It is likely that there will be some health benefits resulting from milder winters and increased opportunities for outdoor recreation, however there may also be changes to the landscape and environment which impact on people's quality of life. Other direct effects include increased storminess and sea level rise could compound the vulnerability of remote island communities.

Some aspects of the economy may benefit, including the intensification and diversification of agriculture, and possible expansion of tourism based industries, albeit at the expense of snowsports. Other impacts as a result of climate change such as disruption to supply chains, utilities and infrastructure may impact on businesses. There is a need for further research and information on the health impacts of climate change and potential means to address these effects.

Those with existing poor health and deprivation are likely to experience greater impacts as a result of climate change. This will include more limited ability to address impacts and the concentration of impacts within more vulnerable communities.

Improving the evidence base of Scotland's exposure to the impacts of climate change will have a positive impact on promoting human health and wellbeing. Adaptation policy priorities resulting from Risk Assessment work will result in geographically specific measures which will likely include measures to address population and health impacts of climate change. Research noted under the Living with Environmental Change project includes the consideration of climate change on human health, economies and communities which will have positive benefits when taken into account in adaptation decisions.

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Research is either ongoing or still to be carried out and therefore the timeframe of the effects are likely to be medium to long term.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measure/s which follow/s from the research and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that there is research into climate change and population and human health particularly taking into account the needs of more vulnerable communities (as identified in the net effects).

Reduce water pollution and enhance water quality

Net effects are likely to include water quality issues associated with diffuse pollution and intensification of agriculture, increased demand for water from all sectors, contamination from flooding and lack of dilution under low flow conditions. There is policy recognition of the impacts of climate change on water resources, however there are likely to be issues such as the need for reconciliation of competing demands for water (e.g. water quality vs water use for irrigation etc) and issues such as protection of land and resources vulnerable to flooding vs managed realignment.

The water environment is therefore potentially vulnerable to the effects of climate change as a result of increased pollution and competing demands on the resource.

The impacts of climate change on the water environment are relatively well understood, however issues surrounding water quality and pollution remain. Increasing the evidence base of Scotland's exposure to the impacts of climate change will be likely to have a slight positive impact on water. It can be assumed that projects such as the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment will include a consideration of the impacts on all ecosystem services including the water environment although this is not explicit. Information contained within UKCIP scenarios will also signpost potential impacts on the water environment through changes in weather patterns.

Specific research programmes including the Marine Climate Change Partnership and work to assess habitat changes will address the water environment however the extent to which they will aid in directly reducing water pollution and enhancing water quality are likely to be limited.

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Research is either ongoing or still to be carried out and therefore the timeframe of the effects are likely to be medium to long term.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measure/s which follow/s from the research and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that there is support for research into climate change impacts in all SEA topic areas including water.

The Framework should acknowledge the need for adaptation measures to address the climate change impacts on the water environment (water quality and pollution).

Protect and enhance the quality of soils

There is a degree of policy protection for soil as a carbon resource and sink and recognition of the impacts of climate change on soil. Net effects are likely to include erosion as a result of sea level rise and increased precipitation, loss of soil biodiversity, development pressure and land management impacts.

There is policy recognition of the potential impacts of climate change on soil and the need for sustainable soil management. However there is an apparent lack of a co-ordinated approach to addressing issues such as soil sealing and the impacts on soil from agricultural and forestry activities.

Although the policy framework provides explicit protection for soils, there is a need for stronger integration of soil management into other topic areas, in particular potential loss of soil resources through freshwater flooding and erosion, coastal erosion and inundation, and soil sealing as result of changing development patterns in response to climate change.

Improving the evidence base of Scotland's exposure to climate change is likely to have a limited positive effect on protecting and enhancing the quality of soils albeit indirectly as there is no explicit mention of research into the soil resource. However addressing overall climate change risks and specific research into the impacts on habitats and species from climate induced change will be likely to include some consideration of soil.

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Research is either ongoing or still to be carried out and therefore the timeframe of the effects are likely to be medium to long term.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measure/s which follow/s from the research and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that there is support for research into climate change impacts on all SEA topic areas including soil.

The Framework should acknowledge the need for adaptation measures to address the climate change impacts on soil (loss of soil resources, soil sealing).

Reduce air pollution and CO ₂ emissions

Impacts on air and climate are addressed through a range of policy mechanisms which seek to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Actions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases also help to address air quality issues, as the sources of greenhouse gases are also typically the sources of air pollution.

The weather changes associated with climate change may also help to reduce the effects of air pollution in some conditions, but increased temperatures may worsen effects. Adaptation responses to climate change under other topic areas may result in indirect benefits to air quality through additional tree planting.

The broad range of policy to tackle climate change, reduces the overall vulnerability of air and climate.

The aim of the Framework is not to limit climate change by reducing emissions but to prepare for a changing climate through adaptation and therefore there will be no direct contribution to reducing air pollution and CO ₂ emissions from increasing the evidence base of Scotland's exposure to climate change.

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Encourage the protection and enhancement land and resources.

The impacts on material assets are likely to result from a range of direct and adaptation responses.

Waste

There is likely to be a continued rise in the quantity of waste generated, however there will also be an increase in recycling.

Energy

There will be continued growth in renewable energy development including on and off shore wind, biomass, hydro and wave and tidal energy.

Transport

Transport patterns may be affected by increased levels of climate related disruption affecting road, rail and shipping.

Agriculture and forestry

There may be increased demands on land for agriculture and forestry production, however this will be in competition with other demands for development outwith flood risk areas, as the most productive arable land is typically located close to the main urban areas.

Tourism and recreation

The accessible countryside around urban areas in Scotland provides an important recreation resource. Demands for outdoor recreation are likely to increase as a result of increased temperatures, particularly in those areas most accessible from urban centres.

Property and industry

Issues such as freshwater and coastal flooding, and erosion will impact on property and industry with increased demand for flood defence and increased pressure for development within low risk areas.

Material assets are potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Increasing the evidence base of Scotland's exposure to climate change is likely to have a positive impact on the protection and enhancement of material assets. Although not explicitly stated, research to better understand the consequences of climate change will be useful to inform outcomes in each of the material asset sectors (waste, energy, transport, agriculture etc). Other actions including greater sharing of data and working with Scottish sectors to help costs risks presented by a changing climate will likely involve industries such as waste, energy, transport, agriculture, tourism and property.

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Research is either ongoing or still to be carried out and therefore the timeframe of the effects are likely to be medium to long term.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measure/s which follow/s from the research and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should work with key Scottish sectors and stakeholders in identifying the costs and risks of climate change and ensure this includes those from all of the material asset groups listed here (waste, energy, agriculture, transport etc).

Safeguard or enhance the built environment and cultural heritage resources

There is potential conflict between climate change pressures on the historic environment and the policy protection framework. For example the direct relationship between potential impacts on the historic environment and the implementation of flood management measures, or micro-renewables.

Impacts are likely to include impacts on the historic environment as a result of adaptation and landscape change, loss of cultural heritage resources from erosion and direct impacts resulting from weather changes and new building and structures. Adaptation responses to climate change under other topic areas may result in indirect benefits to air quality through additional tree planting.

The historic environment is potentially vulnerable to climate change due to a lack of co-ordinated policy protection across all sectors. There is also a potential lack of clear guidance on the management of conflicts between competing policy sectors.

Increasing the evidence base of Scotland's exposure to climate change is likely to have no impact on safeguarding or enhancing the cultural heritage as there is no explicit mention of research into effects on the built or cultural heritage.

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The Framework should ensure that there is support for research into climate change impacts on all SEA topic areas including cultural heritage.

Respect and protects the character, diversity and special qualities of Scotland's landscapes

Landscape is under a range of pressures for change which can have both positive and negative impacts on landscape character. There will also be landscape change as a result of direct impacts of climate change such as flooding, erosion and storm damage.

The landscape pressures resulting from adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change are likely to compound many of the existing pressures for change with changes in forestry, farmland, upland environments, coastal and fluvial landscapes and the built environment. Currently no clear mechanism for managing the effects of climate change on the special qualities of designated landscapes including National Scenic Areas and National Parks.

There is no policy framework providing direct protection of the landscape, although there is some secondary protection, however landscape is identified as vulnerable.

Increasing the evidence base of Scotland's exposure to climate change is likely to have no impact on respecting or protecting the Scottish landscape as there is no explicit mention of research into effects on the landscape resource.

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The Framework should ensure that there is support for research into climate change impacts on all SEA topic areas including landscape.

Protect and enhance biodiversity, flora or fauna

A number of planned adaptation responses will result in habitat creation of enhancement. These include the creation of habitat networks, rewilding of river catchments to slow run-off, and programmes of managed coastal realignment.

As a direct effect of climate change species migration will occur and there may be species loss due to lack of climate space, and direct climate impacts such as erosion. There will also be changes in water quality which may impact on habitats and species as a result of both direct and adaptation responses. Pests and diseases may impact on type and distribution of species. There will be impacts on the marine environment and marine species with potential species loss and migration.

The current policy framework does not make clear how the factors causing habitat fragmentation interact with the policy framework to support habitat creation. There is a lack of a clear framework on how protected sites are supported or protected from climate change impacts. It is unclear how habitat loss and habitat creation balance, and the value of loss or damage to existing sites compared to the creation of new habitat. There are unknown impacts associated with the future risks from non-native species and a need for further work on colonisation by non-native species as a result of climate change.

Biodiversity is subject to a range of influencing factors as a result of climate change and these will act in a number of ways resulting in a mixture of positive and negative impacts. There is a high degree of uncertainty and requirement for further research on these impacts and therefore biodiversity is considered overall to be vulnerable to climate change.

The Framework proposals aim to increase the profile of adaptation across social, environmental and economic sectors. This will increase the number and range of adaptation measures being supported in relation to biodiversity which will have a positive effect on supporting biodiversity, flora and fauna adaptation to climate change and the protection and enhancement of these resources. The proposals also seek to integrate climate change adaptation into Government corporate planning which will increase the high level implementation and co-ordination of adaptation for biodiversity, flora and fauna.

Other than the use of SEA, which will not be applied to all adaptation measures, particularly those implemented by individuals, there is no mechanism for the overall co-ordination of adaptation measures across other sectors to assist in the identification and management of conflicts between biodiversity and other sectoral interests.

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The impact of increased adaptation measures to support biodiversity will come into effect from the short to long term depending on the nature of the adaptation measures emerging.

The lack of sectoral co-ordination of adaptation measures will likely have impacts on biodiversity, flora and fauna in the medium to longer term.

The proposals will have an overall positive effect which may be temporary or permanent depending on the robustness of the proposals in terms of how they relate to the degree and rate of future climate change.

The potential effects of a lack of sectoral co-ordination of adaptation measures may have permanent or temporary effects on biodiversity, flora and fauna depending on the type of effect and habitats or species affected by the adaptation action.

The Framework should include proposals to ensure that cross sectoral impacts of the implementation of climate change adaptation measures are fully considered and assessed through their development and implementation but also to identify impacts resulting from individual actions resulting from climate change adaptation.

The Framework should also support the development of procedure and guidance on the reconciliation of potential cross sectoral conflicts between adaptation measures (e.g. biodiversity interests vs economic considerations).

Promote human health and well being

Current trends of population growth and poor health will compound negative direct effects of climate change such as food and water borne diseases, and the impact of heatwaves and flooding. These effects may impact disproportionately on some high risk groups. It is likely that there will be some health benefits resulting from milder winters and increased opportunities for outdoor recreation, however there may also be changes to the landscape and environment which impact on people's quality of life. Other direct effects include increased storminess and sea level rise could compound the vulnerability of remote island communities.

Some aspects of the economy may benefit, including the intensification and diversification of agriculture, and possible expansion of tourism based industries, albeit at the expense of snowsports. Other impacts as a result of climate change such as disruption to supply chains, utilities and infrastructure may impact on businesses. There is a need for further research and information on the health impacts of climate change and potential means to address these effects.

Those with existing poor health and deprivation are likely to experience greater impacts as a result of climate change. This will include more limited ability to address impacts and the concentration of impacts within more vulnerable communities.

The Framework proposals to increase adaptation measures across social, economic and environmental sectors will have an overall positive effect on population and human health through reducing the negative effects of climate change.

The current proposals do not outline how adaptation should be prioritised to ensure that the integration of adaptation into Government social policy is targeted to those areas and communities identified as most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The Framework should promote a review of existing and emerging policies to identify where adaptation should be 'retro fitted' to existing social policies which currently represent a gap in adaptation responses.

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The impacts of integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation will come into effect over the short to long term depending on the type of adaptation measures implemented.

The proposals will have an overall positive effect on reducing the negative effects of climate change on human health and well being, which may be temporary or permanent depending on the robustness of the proposals in terms of how they relate to the degree and rate of future climate change.

There is an identified need for further research and information on the health impacts of climate change and there is a requirement for this to inform the integration of climate change adaptation into Government social policy.

The Framework should support further work into the identification of those communities most at risk from the impacts of climate change.

The Framework should support the prioritisation of the development of adaptation measures for those communities most at risk from the impacts of climate change, which will ensure positive benefits within a shorter timeframe.

Reduce water pollution and enhance water quality

Net effects are likely to include water quality issues associated with diffuse pollution and intensification of agriculture, increased demand for water from all sectors, contamination from flooding and lack of dilution under low flow conditions. There is policy recognition of the impacts of climate change on water resources, however there are likely to be issues such as the need for reconciliation of competing demands for water (e.g. water quality vs water use for irrigation etc) and issues such as protection of land and resources vulnerable to flooding vs managed realignment.

The water environment is therefore potentially vulnerable to the effects of climate change as a result of increased pollution and competing demands on the resource.

The integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation will have an overall positive effect on the water environment and the achievement of a reduction in pollution and enhancement of water quality.

However, climate change adaptation through management of the water environment also raises a number of potential competing issues which may result in further impacts across the SEA topic areas.

The issue of competing demands for water resources extends across all policy areas potentially impacting on social, economic and environmental objectives. The implementation of climate change adaptation measures across all sectors may put pressure on the water environment through competition for the resource. The identification and management of the risks of a changing climate will potentially help to address the management of this issue, however it should ensure that this includes the identification and assessment and effects of adaptation responses and not only direct risks.

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The positive effects of greater integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation will occur over the short to long term. The timeframe for the effects of the adaptation to become effective in reducing water pollution and enhancing water quality will vary, depending on the measures implemented.

The proposals will have an overall positive effect on reducing the negative effects of climate change on the water environment which may be temporary or permanent. Changes in the balance of competing interests on the water environment may result in reversal of positive effects secured under the policy framework. Alterations in the extent and severity of future climate change may also result in the reversal of positive effects of previous adaptation.

The Framework should also support the development of procedure and guidance on the reconciliation of cross sectoral conflicts between adaptation measures and competition for resources.

The Framework should ensure that policy planning provides for flexibility in responding to future changes in climate change scenarios.

Protect and enhance the quality of soils

There is a degree of policy protection for soil as a carbon resource and sink and recognition of the impacts of climate change on soil. Net effects are likely to include erosion as a result of sea level rise and increased precipitation, loss of soil biodiversity, development pressure and land management impacts.

There is policy recognition of the potential impacts of climate change on soil and the need for sustainable soil management. However there is an apparent lack of a co-ordinated approach to addressing issues such as soil sealing and the impacts on soil from agricultural and forestry activities.

Although the policy framework provides explicit protection for soils, there is a need for stronger integration of soil management into other topic areas, in particular potential loss of soil resources through freshwater flooding and erosion, coastal erosion and inundation, and soil sealing as result of changing development patterns in response to climate change.

The integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation will have an overall positive effect on the protection and enhancement of the quality of soils through the promotion of adaptation activities which support soil quality.

However there may be potential conflicts between environmental, economic and social adaptation responses for the soil resource, through competing demands for land, for development, energy generation and food and fibre production.

The identification and management of the risks of a changing climate will potentially help to address the management of this issue, however it should ensure that this includes the identification and assessment and effects of adaptation responses and not only direct risks.

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The positive impact of the integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation is likely to occur over the medium to long term, as the benefits of effective policy implementation can have effect immediately after implementation.

The duration of the positive effect of the integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation is likely to be temporary.

Changes in the balance of competing interests on the soil resource may result in reversal of positive effects secured under the policy framework. Alterations in the extent and severity of future climate change may also result in reduced effectiveness of positive effects of previous adaptation.

The Framework should also support the development of procedure and guidance on the reconciliation of cross sectoral conflicts between adaptation measures and competition for resources.

The Framework should ensure that policy planning provides for flexibility in adapting for future changes in climate change scenarios.

Reduce air pollution and CO ₂ emissions

Impacts on air and climate are addressed through a range of policy mechanisms which seek to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Actions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases also help to address air quality issues, as the sources of greenhouse gases are also typically the sources of air pollution.

The weather changes associated with climate change may also help to reduce the effects of air pollution in some conditions, but increased temperatures may worsen effects.

Adaptation responses to climate change under other topic areas may result in indirect benefits to air quality through additional tree planting.

The broad range of policy to tackle climate change, reduces the overall vulnerability of air and climate.

The integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation has an overall minor positive effect on air quality and climate. This will result from secondary effects such as air quality benefits and a reduction in the emission of CO ₂ through adaptation measures which support the sustainable management of soils, woodland planting and the creation of habitat networks.

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The minor positive impact of the integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation on air quality and climate is likely to occur in the medium to longer term due to the secondary nature of these effects.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measure which provides these benefits and this could be temporary or permanent.

Changes in the balance of competing interests on the adaptation measures may result in reversal of positive effects secured under the policy framework.

The Framework has an overall minor positive effect on air and climate and no alleviation or enhancement measures are identified.

Encourage protection and enhancement of land and resources

The impacts on material assets are likely to result from a range of direct and adaptation responses.

Waste

There is likely to be a continued rise in the quantity of waste generated, however there will also be an increase in recycling.

Energy

There will be continued growth in renewable energy development including on and off shore wind, biomass, hydro and wave and tidal energy.

Transport

Transport patterns may be affected by increased levels of climate related disruption affecting road, rail and shipping.

Agriculture and forestry

There may be increased demands on land for agriculture and forestry production, however this will be in competition with other demands for development outwith flood risk areas, as the most productive arable land is typically located close to the main urban areas.

Tourism and recreation

The accessible countryside around urban areas in Scotland provides an important recreation resource. Demands for outdoor recreation are likely to increase as a result of increased temperatures, particularly in those areas most accessible from urban centres.

Property and industry

Issues such as freshwater and coastal flooding, and erosion will impact on property and industry with increased demand for flood defence and increased pressure for development within low risk areas.

Material assets are potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation across the interests of social, economic and environmental policy will have a potential positive effect on the protection and enhancement of material assets. The integration of adaptation measures across a range of policy sectors will ensure protection of the diverse range of material assets which range from energy, transport and communications infrastructure to land.

There may be conflicts between adaptation measures which protect material assets and the achievement of other SEA objectives.

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The positive effects of the integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation on material assets is likely to become effective in the medium to long term to reflect the timeframe for identification of priorities and implementation of policies which provide protection of these assets.

The duration of the effect will be tied to the extent and severity of future climate change in relation to the parameters which a protective feature are designed to withstand.

The Framework should also support the development of procedure and guidance on the reconciliation of cross sectoral conflicts between adaptation measures and competition for resources.

The Framework should ensure that policy planning provides for flexibility in responding to future changes in climate change scenarios, to ensure that adaptation measures are sufficiently robust to be effective in the long term.

Safeguard or enhance the built environment and cultural heritage resources

There is potential conflict between climate change pressures on the historic environment and the policy protection framework. For example the direct relationship between potential impacts on the historic environment and the implementation of flood management measures, or micro-renewables.

Impacts are likely to include impacts on the historic environment as a result of adaptation and landscape change, loss of cultural heritage resources from erosion and direct impacts resulting from weather changes and new building and structures. Adaptation responses to climate change under other topic areas may result in indirect benefits to air quality through additional tree planting.

The historic environment is potentially vulnerable to climate change due to a lack of co-ordinated policy protection across all sectors. There is also a potential lack of clear guidance on the management of conflicts between competing policy sectors.

The historic environment is vulnerable to both the direct impacts of climate change and impacts which result from adaptation in other policy sectors.

The integration of climate change adaptation into public policy and regulation across the interests of social, economic and environmental policy will have a potential positive effect on safeguarding and enhancing the built environment and cultural heritage resources through supporting the implementation of adaptation measures which protect this resource, however there is not specific reference to the historic environment within the detailed actions. The increase in adaptation measures may result in negative impacts on the historic environment as a result of adaptation in other policy areas.

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The timeframe of both positive and negative effects is likely to be in the short to long term, reflecting the variety of timescales within which policies are implemented and become effective on the ground.

The duration of the effect will be tied to the extent and severity of future climate change in relation to the parameters which a protective feature are designed to withstand.

Changes in the balance of competing interests on the adaptation measures may result in reversal of positive effects secured under the policy framework.

The Framework should support the development of procedure and guidance on the reconciliation of cross sectoral conflicts between adaptation measures.

Respect and protects the character, diversity and special qualities of Scotland's landscapes

Landscape is under a range of pressures for change which can have both positive and negative impacts on landscape character. There will also be landscape change as a result of direct impacts of climate change such as flooding, erosion and storm damage.

The landscape pressures resulting from adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change are likely to compound many of the existing pressures for change with changes in forestry, farmland, upland environments, coastal and fluvial landscapes and the built environment. Currently no clear mechanism for managing the effects of climate change on the special qualities of designated landscapes including National Scenic Areas and National Parks.

There is no policy framework providing direct protection of the landscape, although there is some secondary protection, however landscape is identified as vulnerable.

All of the adaptation measures implemented under the other SEA topics are likely to result in impacts on the landscape. There will also be some direct landscape impacts, many associated with the freshwater and coastal environment, however the majority of landscape impacts will result from adaptation. Adaptation to reduce the impacts of climate change on the landscape requires adaptation policy to address the landscape impacts of adaptation measures in relation to other topic areas. Although the integration of climate change adaptation into Government environmental policy should address landscape issues, there should be explicit reference to the landscape resource within the Framework.

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The landscape impacts of climate change and the landscape impacts resulting from adaptation to climate change are likely to occur in the short to long term, reflecting the immediacy of some impacts and the longer timeframe associated with some of the adaptation measures.

The effects on the landscape may be both temporary and permanent depending on the nature of the direct or adaptation effects.

The Framework should support the development of procedure and guidance on the reconciliation of cross sectoral conflicts between adaptation measures, particularly in relation to landscape.

Protect and enhance biodiversity, flora or fauna

A number of planned adaptation responses will result in habitat creation of enhancement. These include the creation of habitat networks, rewilding of river catchments to slow run-off, and programmes of managed coastal realignment.

As a direct effect of climate change species migration will occur and there may be species loss due to lack of climate space, and direct climate impacts such as erosion. There will also be changes in water quality which may impact on habitats and species as a result of both direct and adaptation responses. Pests and diseases may impact on type and distribution of species. There will be impacts on the marine environment and marine species with potential species loss and migration.

The current policy framework does not make clear how the factors causing habitat fragmentation interact with the policy framework to support habitat creation. There is a lack of a clear framework on how protected sites are supported or protected from climate change impacts. It is unclear how habitat loss and habitat creation balance, and the value of loss or damage to existing sites compared to the creation of new habitat. There are unknown impacts associated with the future risks from non-native species and a need for further work on colonisation by non-native species as a result of climate change.

Biodiversity is subject to a range of influencing factors as a result of climate change and these will act in a number of ways resulting in a mixture of positive and negative impacts. There is a high degree of uncertainty and requirement for further research on these impacts and therefore biodiversity is considered overall to be vulnerable to climate change.

Enhancing adaptive capacity through raising awareness of the impacts of climate change and providing decision makers with tools and training will have a positive impact on protecting and enhancing biodiversity in light of climate induced changes. Although there are a number of planned adaptation responses already in place to protect biodiversity there is still uncertainty about precise impacts and raising awareness through the application of most recent data will help to address this ( UKCIP and SCCIP work).

Providing decision makers (from all sectors, presumably including those involved with the natural heritage and biodiversity) with tools and training to plan adaptation actions based on current data could also help inform a framework on how to safeguard protected sites (as identified under net effects).

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The impacts of enhancing adaptive capacity will be likely to come into effect over short, medium and long term timeframes. It appears that actions relating to awareness raising and supporting decision making are already ongoing or will take place over the short term, benefits from these will likely to then be achieved over the medium term and the delivery of actual adaptive actions following from this will result in medium to long term results.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measures which follow from enhancing adaptive capacity and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that in raising awareness about the impacts of climate change the impacts on biodiversity flora and fauna are highlighted.

The Framework should ensure that representatives from the natural heritage sector (including government bodies, the private and third sectors) are included in actions to equip decision makers with the skills and tools to adapt to climate change (the actions currently include a focus on local authorities and the business sector).

Promote human health and well being

Current trends of population growth and poor health will compound negative direct effects of climate change such as food and water borne diseases, and the impact of heatwaves and flooding. These effects may impact disproportionately on some high risk groups. It is likely that there will be some health benefits resulting from milder winters and increased opportunities for outdoor recreation, however there may also be changes to the landscape and environment which impact on people's quality of life. Other direct effects include increased storminess and sea level rise could compound the vulnerability of remote island communities.

Some aspects of the economy may benefit, including the intensification and diversification of agriculture, and possible expansion of tourism based industries, albeit at the expense of snowsports. Other impacts as a result of climate change such as disruption to supply chains, utilities and infrastructure may impact on businesses. There is a need for further research and information on the health impacts of climate change and potential means to address these effects.

Those with existing poor health and deprivation are likely to experience greater impacts as a result of climate change. This will include more limited ability to address impacts and the concentration of impacts within more vulnerable communities.

Enhancing adaptive capacity through raising awareness of the impacts of climate change and providing decision makers with tools and training will have a positive impact on promoting human health and wellbeing. The actions outlined include targeted support for local authorities to help them adapt to climate change based on local vulnerability to weather patterns. The Local Climate Impact Profiles ( LCLIPs) will have a particular role in this providing information on how weather events will affect local communities as well as Council assets and services. This combined with other support tools and training should result in appropriate adaptive responses based on local vulnerability.

In addition the development of a toolkit for the business sector ( SMEs) will aid in the ability of economic sectors to adapt and adjust to climate change and take advantage of the opportunities that may also arise (for example the expansion of tourism as outlined in the net effects).

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The benefits of enhancing adaptive capacity on promoting human health and well being are likely to be achieved over the medium term, particularly those based on the roll out of the LCLIP work which is ongoing.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the type and duration of adaptation measures which follow from enhancing adaptive capacity and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that in raising awareness about the impacts of climate change the impacts on population and human health are highlighted.

The Framework should acknowledge that direct adaptation actions following from building adaptive capacity should focus on communities most at risk from the impacts of climate change.

Reduce water pollution and enhance water quality

Net effects are likely to include water quality issues associated with diffuse pollution and intensification of agriculture, increased demand for water from all sectors, contamination from flooding and lack of dilution under low flow conditions. There is policy recognition of the impacts of climate change on water resources, however there are likely to be issues such as the need for reconciliation of competing demands for water (e.g. water quality vs water use for irrigation etc) and issues such as protection of land and resources vulnerable to flooding vs managed realignment.

The water environment is therefore potentially vulnerable to the effects of climate change as a result of increased pollution and competing demands on the resource.

Although the actions outlined under increasing adaptive capacity do not explicitly link to improvements in the water environment it is likely that they will have a minor indirect positive effect.

Increased understanding about the risks of climate change and information about climate change projections will involve consideration of impacts of climate change on the water environment including issues such as flooding. Accompanying adaptive measures such as sustainable flood management will result in positive impacts on water quality and pollution (for example there may be reduced water contamination from flooding due to sustainable flood management).

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The benefits to the water environment of increasing adaptive capacity are likely to be achieved over the medium to long term as they are not immediate and will result from the actual adaptation actions which will follow on from the building of adaptive capacity.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the type and duration of adaptation measures which follow from enhancing adaptive capacity and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that in raising awareness about the impacts of climate change the impacts on the water environment are highlighted.

In order to ensure a more direct positive impact on the water environment the Framework should acknowledge that adaptation actions following from building adaptive capacity should consider the impacts of climate change on the water environment (and in particular water quality).

Protect and enhance the quality of soils

There is a degree of policy protection for soil as a carbon resource and sink and recognition of the impacts of climate change on soil. Net effects are likely to include erosion as a result of sea level rise and increased precipitation, loss of soil biodiversity, development pressure and land management impacts.

There is policy recognition of the potential impacts of climate change on soil and the need for sustainable soil management. However there is an apparent lack of a co-ordinated approach to addressing issues such as soil sealing and the impacts on soil from agricultural and forestry activities.

Although the policy framework provides explicit protection for soils, there is a need for stronger integration of soil management into other topic areas, in particular potential loss of soil resources through freshwater flooding and erosion, coastal erosion and inundation, and soil sealing as result of changing development patterns in response to climate change.

Although the actions outlined under increasing adaptive capacity do not explicitly link to the protection and enhancement of soils it is likely that they will have a minor indirect positive effect.

Increased understanding about the risks of climate change and information about climate change projections will involve consideration of impacts of climate change on the wider environment. Accompanying adaptive measures such as sustainable flood management will result in positive impacts on soils through a reduction in erosion. Other adaptive measures are likely to have a similar indirect effect.

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The benefits to the water environment of increasing adaptive capacity are likely to be achieved over the medium to long term as they are not immediate and will result from the actual adaptation actions which will follow on from the building of adaptive capacity.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the type and duration of adaptation measures which follow from enhancing adaptive capacity and could be either temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that in raising awareness about the impacts of climate change the impacts on soils are highlighted.

In order to ensure a more direct positive impact on soils the Framework should acknowledge that direct adaptation actions following from building adaptive capacity should consider the impacts of climate change on soils (and in particular soil loss and soil sealing).

Reduce air pollution and CO ₂ emissions

Impacts on air and climate are addressed through a range of policy mechanisms which seek to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. Actions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases also help to address air quality issues, as the sources of greenhouse gases are also typically the sources of air pollution.

The weather changes associated with climate change may also help to reduce the effects of air pollution in some conditions, but increased temperatures may worsen effects.

Adaptation responses to climate change under other topic areas may result in indirect benefits to air quality through additional tree planting.

The broad range of policy to tackle climate change, reduces the overall vulnerability of air and climate.

Equipping decision makers with tools and skills to adapt well will have an overall minor positive effect on air quality and climate. This is due to the adaptation measures which are likely to be adopted by all sectors as a result of enhanced capacity and understanding and which will result in benefits to air quality and a reduction in the emission of CO ₂.

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The minor positive impact of increasing adaptive capacity on air quality and climate is likely to occur in the medium to longer term due to the secondary nature of these effects.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measures adopted and these could be temporary or permanent.

No alleviation or enhancement is noted.

Encourage protection and enhancement of land and resources

The impacts on material assets are likely to result from a range of direct and adaptation responses.

Waste

There is likely to be a continued rise in the quantity of waste generated, however there will also be an increase in recycling.

Energy

There will be continued growth in renewable energy development including on and off shore wind, biomass, hydro and wave and tidal energy.

Transport

Transport patterns may be affected by increased levels of climate related disruption affecting road, rail and shipping.

Agriculture and forestry

There may be increased demands on land for agriculture and forestry production, however this will be in competition with other demands for development outwith flood risk areas, as the most productive arable land is typically located close to the main urban areas.

Tourism and recreation

The accessible countryside around urban areas in Scotland provides an important recreation resource. Demands for outdoor recreation are likely to increase as a result of increased temperatures, particularly in those areas most accessible from urban centres.

Property and industry

Issues such as freshwater and coastal flooding, and erosion will impact on property and industry with increased demand for flood defence and increased pressure for development within low risk areas.

Material assets are potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Building adaptive capacity by raising awareness and equipping decision makers with skills and tools to adapt is likely to have a positive impact on the protection of some material assets.

Specific work to provide a toolkit for local authorities and SMEs in order that they can anticipate and plan an adaptive response will be of particular benefit to managing or minimising climate change impacts on particular sectors (most likely property and industry, tourism, transport).

The LCLIP work which will assess the vulnerability of a local authority's assets will also allow for the planning of an appropriate adaptive response.

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The positive effect of building adaptive capacity on material assets will be achieved over the medium to long term depending on the nature of the adaptive response which follows from building adaptive capacity.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measures adopted and these could be temporary or permanent.

Ensure that in raising awareness about the impacts of climate change the impacts on material assets are highlighted.

Safeguard or enhance the built environment and cultural heritage resources

There is potential conflict between climate change pressures on the historic environment and the policy protection framework. For example the direct relationship between potential impacts on the historic environment and the implementation of flood management measures, or micro-renewables.

Impacts are likely to include impacts on the historic environment as a result of adaptation and landscape change, loss of cultural heritage resources from erosion and direct impacts resulting from weather changes and new building and structures. Adaptation responses to climate change under other topic areas may result in indirect benefits to air quality through additional tree planting.

The historic environment is potentially vulnerable to climate change due to a lack of co-ordinated policy protection across all sectors. There is also a potential lack of clear guidance on the management of conflicts between competing policy sectors.

The historic environment is vulnerable to both the direct impacts of climate change and impacts which result from adaptation in other policy sectors.

Building adaptive capacity by raising awareness and equipping decision makers with skills and tools to adapt is likely to have both a minor positive impact on the protection of cultural heritage and also a potential negative impact.

There is no explicit mention of the historic environment within actions for raising awareness and providing support tools and training for decision makers, however measures to protect certain assets that will follow from related adaptive responses will be likely to (indirectly) provide protection for cultural sites (for example sustainable flood management). However adaptation responses may also cause harm to the historic environment (for example woodland expansion in upland glens and the expansion of habitat networks which could affect historic sites).

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The effect of building adaptive capacity on the historic environment will be likely to take effect over medium to long term depending on the nature of the adaptive response.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measures adopted and these could be temporary or permanent.

NB. However any loss of cultural heritage is irreversible and therefore permanent.

The Framework should ensure that in raising awareness about the impacts of climate change the impacts on cultural heritage are highlighted.

In order to ensure a more direct positive impact on the historic environment the Framework should acknowledge that direct adaptation actions following from building adaptive capacity should both consider the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage and provide protection for the historic environment from adaptation measures that may be detrimental.

Respect and protects the character, diversity and special qualities of Scotland's landscapes

Landscape is under a range of pressures for change which can have both positive and negative impacts on landscape character. There will also be landscape change as a result of direct impacts of climate change such as flooding, erosion and storm damage.

The landscape pressures resulting from adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change are likely to compound many of the existing pressures for change with changes in forestry, farmland, upland environments, coastal and fluvial landscapes and the built environment. Currently no clear mechanism for managing the effects of climate change on the special qualities of designated landscapes including National Scenic Areas and National Parks.

There is no policy framework providing direct protection of the landscape, although there is some secondary protection, however landscape is identified as vulnerable.

The landscape resource is noted as being vulnerable to climate change both directly and through the impact of adaptation and mitigation responses.

Overall the building of adaptive capacity by raising awareness and equipping decision makers with tools may have a minor negative impact on landscape due to the resulting adaptation responses (changes in agriculture and forestry, managed re-alignment and flood defence etc).

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The effect of building adaptive capacity on landscape will be likely to take effect over medium to long term depending on the nature of the adaptive response.

The duration of these effects is likely to be associated with the duration of the adaptation measures adopted and these could be temporary or permanent.

The Framework should ensure that in raising awareness about the impacts of climate change the impacts on landscape are highlighted.

In order to ensure a more direct positive impact on landscape the Framework should acknowledge that direct adaptation actions following from building adaptive capacity should both consider the impacts of climate change on landscape and provide protection for landscapes from adaptation measures that may be detrimental.

Protect and enhance biodiversity, flora or fauna

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, flora and fauna, the existing biodiversity trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

Planned adaptation responses will result in habitat creation and enhancement. These include the creation of habitat networks to support species migration and creation of habitats as part of adaptation measures such as rewilding of river catchments to slow run-off, and programmes of managed coastal realignment.

Habitat loss is also likely to occur as a result of increased competition for land for development, agriculture and forestry, and also loss of coastal and intertidal habitats as a direct result of flooding and sea level rise. This may include impacts on protected sites and species which are not protected from the direct impacts of climate change, and also indirect impacts such as changes in water quality.

Non-native species may gain a foothold and impact on habitats and species, as a result of a changing climate.

There are unknown impacts associated with the future risks from non-native species and a need for further work on colonisation by non-native species as a result of climate change.

There will be changes in the marine ecosystems with shifts in species distribution.

These effects will have an overall minor negative impact on the objective to protect and enhance biodiversity, flora or fauna.

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The impacts on biodiversity, flora and fauna are likely to occur in both the short to long term. Some effects are already occurring, others will be result from future adaptation actions and future climate changes which may occur in the longer term.

Effects on biodiversity, flora and fauna may be both temporary and permanent as some impacts are reversible, and others such as the loss of montane or coastal habitats will be permanent.

Promote human health and well being

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on population and human health, the existing trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

Current trends of population growth and poor health will compound negative effects of climate change such as food and water borne diseases, and the impact of heatwaves.

Some health benefits may be experienced as a result of milder winters and increased opportunities for outdoor recreation.

There may be issues with increased disruption to the supply of goods and services, particularly to more remote and island communities.

Climate change may impact on employment, activities, health, leisure and tourism opportunities for people living in and visiting Scotland.

There may be impacts on outdoor and indoor air quality and impacts on the quality and availability of water supplies.

These impacts will have an overall mixed effect with some positive and some negative effects on the promotion of human health and well being.

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The impacts of climate change on human health and well being may occur in the short to long term, reflecting the range of potential effects.

Effects on human health and well being may be both temporary and permanent, as some impacts are reversible through the implementation of further adaptation measures.

Reduce water pollution and enhance water quality

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on the water environment, the existing trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

Competing demands on water resources.

Competing demands on land for management of flooding and water issues.

Changes in flood and drought events resulting in contamination from flooding and lack of dilution under low flow conditions.

Water quality issues associated with diffuse pollution and intensification of agriculture.

These effects will impact on biodiversity, population and human health and material assets.

These impacts will have an overall minor negative effect on the objective to reduce water pollution and enhance water quality.

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The impacts of climate change on the water environment may occur in the short to long term, reflecting the range of potential effects which result from direct impacts of climate change and adaptation responses.

Effects on the water environment may be both temporary and permanent. Changes in water quality may be longer term in their impact as a result of a loss of biodiversity and impacts on other natural processes. Changes in the management of water resources may be temporary or permanent in effect.

Protect and enhance the quality of soils

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on the soil resource, the existing trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

There will be continued protection for soil as a carbon resource and sink, however there may also be competition for the use of land which may result in additional impacts on soil through sealing and erosion, and impacts through changes in land use and management practices. Issues such as erosion from flooding and coastal erosion will also impact on the soil resource.

These impacts will have an overall minor negative effect on the objective to protect and enhance the quality of soils.

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The impacts on soils may occur in the short to long term, depending on the nature of the impact. Direct impacts or adaptation impacts which result in soil sealing may occur within any future timeframe.

Impacts on soil are typically permanent due to the essentially non renewable nature of soils.

Reduce air pollution and CO ₂ emissions

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on air and climate, the existing trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

There is likely to be an overall improvement of air quality because actions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases help to address air quality issues, as the sources of greenhouse gases are also typically the sources of air pollution. There may be some issues with changing climate patterns and increased temperatures having both positive and negative effects on air quality.

These actions will have an overall minor positive effect on the objective to reduce air pollution and CO ₂ emissions.

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The actions to reduce emissions are in place with emissions targets set which will act to improve air quality in the short to long term.

Improvements in air quality will continue to be effective for the duration of the existing policy framework which supports reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and air quality improvement.

Encourage efficient use of land and resources

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on material assets, the existing trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

The development and management of waste and energy will likely continue. Climate change may impact on the suitability of locations for wind, hydro power and competition for land for biomass.

Transport patterns may be affected by increased levels of climate related disruption affecting road, rail and shipping.

Agriculture and forestry

There may be increased demands on land for agriculture and forestry production, however this will be in competition with other demands for development outwith flood risk areas, as the most productive arable land is typically located close to the main urban areas.

Tourism and recreation

The accessible countryside around urban areas in Scotland provides an important recreation resource. Demands for outdoor recreation are likely to increase as a result of increased temperatures, particularly in those areas most accessible from urban centres.

Property and industry

Issues such as freshwater and coastal flooding, and erosion will impact on property and industry with increased demand for flood defence and increased pressure for development within low risk areas.

These impacts will have an overall minor negative effect on material assets.

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Impacts on the material assets may occur in the short to long term, reflecting the wide ranging nature of the impacts.

Effects on material assets may be both temporary and permanent, as some impacts are reversible through the implementation of further adaptation measures.

Safeguard or enhance the built environment and cultural heritage resources

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage, the existing trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

The historic environment is potentially subject to a wide range of pressures as a result of climate change. In particular this is likely to result in a number of competing interests with impacts on the historic environment. Although there is existing policy protection for the historic environment it is unclear how these competing interests will evolve.

These impacts will have an overall minor negative effect on cultural heritage resources. Areas at greatest risk are likely to include coastal resources, historic landscapes changing as a result of land management and forestry practices and changes in the urban environment.

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Many of the impacts on the historic environment are a result of adaptation measures within other sectors, and these may occur in the short to long term.

Impacts on the cultural heritage resource are likely to be permanent in nature, reflecting the types of change and characteristics of the historic environment.

Respect and protects the character, diversity and special qualities of Scotland's landscapes

Without action to address the impacts of climate change on landscape, the existing trends, driven by climate change and the current policy framework will result in the following effects:

There are a range of direct and adaptation responses which will have landscape impacts, and the landscape is under a range of pressures as a result of climate change. This includes changes in forestry, farmland, upland environments, coastal and fluvial landscapes and the built environment, with impacts on designated landscapes.

These impacts will have an overall minor negative effect on the character, diversity and special qualities of Scotland's landscapes. Some areas of change will be more significant, and some landscapes will be subject to a wider range of changes. This may increase the rate and degree of landscape change, particularly in the longer term.

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Many of the impacts on the landscape are a result of adaptation measures within other sectors, and these may occur in the short to long term.

Impacts on landscape may be both temporary and permanent.