Scottish Government

APPENDIX C
Baseline Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna

OVERVIEW

Scotland has an important and valuable biodiversity resource and recent conservation measures have shown some positive results in enhancing the populations of certain species and condition of habitats. However, data shows that climate change is already having an impact on certain species and habitats and this coupled with the rate of climate change and the unknown impacts and stresses that it can bring means that action is required to address the vulnerability of the natural heritage resource.

Designated Sites

Scotland has a wealth of biodiversity reflected in the number of both internationally and nationally designated sites (see Table below). These designations cover all types of habitat both terrestrial and marine and are noted for either biological or geological significance. Between 1999 and 2005, the condition of 2,282 habitat, 593 geological and 2,128 species features for which the designated sites had been notified were assessed. This assessment showed that some 55% of habitat, 89% of geological features and 99% of marine features were in favourable condition. While these figures seem encouraging they also show that 45% of habitats were unfavourable, declining or destroyed with greatest concern for lowland heath and wetland. ⁴

Table C1 Statutory Natural Heritage Designations in Scotland

Source: SNH Interactive Facts and Figures website: Summary of Natural Heritage Designations

TRENDS AND STRESSES

An assessment undertaken in 2005 ⁵ of the 153 UK Biodiversity Action Plan ( UKBAP) priority species in Scotland (those species considered to be under threat within the UK) shows some progress towards halting the loss of biodiversity. The data shows that 7% (11 species) were increasing/probably increasing and that 32% (49 species) were stable / probably stable, however 18% (17 species) were declining, 11% showed no clear trend and data for 29% of species was unknown. Data for the 41 priority habitats in Scotland show that 6 habitats were increasing, 8 habitats were stable and 12 habitats were declining (slowing), the remainder were unknown.

Scotland's Biodiversity Indicators ⁶show that the status of some species such as otters, estuarine fish and some breeding and wintering birds are improving. However, four of the indicators highlight biodiversity responses to climate change and the decline in nesting seabirds reflects this and is of particular concern.

The SNH Natural Heritage Trends ⁷ series explores a number of potential climate change impacts on habitats and species particularly in relation to increasing temperature and more frequent rainfall. Noted results of climate change include the premature leafing of spring and the later commencement of autumn, this includes a longer summer growing season. Particular impacts on species include changes in terms of their distributional patterns, abundance and the timing of life cycle events. A number of species have responded by producing leaves earlier, earlier reproduction or the earlier arrival of migrant birds but for some the rate of warming is too fast to keep up with the northward shift in habitat. Heavy downpours of rain are responsible for changing the physical structure of habitats such as riverbanks and disrupting aquatic fauna, whilst wetter winters and drier summers have resulted in habitat destruction such as peatland erosion. As a result, there has been a growing emphasis on the development of broader-scale measures for protection and conservation including the commitment in the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to removing barriers to species movement and dispersal and positively improving connections between habitats.

Population and Human Health

OVERVIEW

The population of Scotland in 2007 was 5.144 million ⁸. The recent increase in Scotland's population has been driven by net in-migration, with gains from migration higher than in any year since records started in 1951. This rise should be seen within the context of the relative stability of the population over the last 50 years.

Areas experiencing population increase of over 5% between 1997 and 2007 include West Lothian, Scottish Borders, East Lothian, City of Edinburgh, Perth and Kinross and Aberdeenshire. Areas with the largest declines in the same period have been Eilean Siar, Dundee City, and Inverclyde.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

Scotland's health record is poor in comparison with other developed nations, with the population having the highest rate of coronary heart disease in Europe. Poor health is particularly concentrated in households with lower incomes. Although levels of physical activity and consequently health in Scotland have been improving, 44% of men and 33% of women currently meet the recommended levels of physical activity, suggesting a need for further changes to lifestyles to overcome health problems in the long term. Asthma and other respiratory problems also persist and are more prevalent in deprived households. ⁹ Environmental pollution has a number of impacts on human health. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution ( RCEP) report on the Urban Environment ¹⁰ identifies a number of impacts associated with the urban environment. This includes air pollution which can cause premature death and reduce average life expectancy. Climate also causes extra deaths in summer through heatwaves and in winter by cold. There is an association between urban residence and the prevalence of psychiatric disorders.

61% of people in high income areas considered themselves to be in good health, compared with only 45% of those living in disadvantaged areas ¹¹¹². The importance of environmental justice is highlighted through the mortality rates for cancer, coronary heart disease and child health issues all show variations by deprivation category, where generally people in more deprived areas have poorer health. It also identifies the important role which local environment plays in the quality of life.

The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation ( SIMD) 2006 ¹³ shows spatial patterns of social exclusion, defined by a combination of factors including income, employment, health, education and skills, access to services, housing and crime. There are geographic concentrations of deprivation in Scotland, largely within the central belt and urban areas, with the City of Glasgow having 34% of the most deprived areas in Scotland, 9% in North Lanarkshire, 7% in Edinburgh and 6% in South Lanarkshire. Deprivation is also a significant rural issue as a result of specific determining factors. For example, areas such as the Western Isles and parts of Highland have particular problems arising from poor access to services. Comparison of the figures from the 2004 and 2006 SIMDs show a slight reduction in urban deprivation, alongside a slight increase in rural deprivation. It should be noted that the size of the data collection zones used in rural areas can have a significant 'masking' effect, obscuring areas of deprivation in more remote communities, particularly those reliant on uncertain seasonal industries and geographically excluded from employment and essential services.

Research undertaken for Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research ( SNIFFER) ¹⁴ examined the relationship between poor environmental quality and deprived communities in Scotland. There is a strong relationship with deprivation and industrial pollution, derelict land and river water quality, with people in deprived areas far more likely to be living near these sources of potential negative environmental impact than people in less deprived areas. People living in deprived areas are less likely to live near to areas of woodland, however there has been a recent focus in planting close to deprived populations (notably through the Forestry Commission Scotland 'Woodlands In and Around Towns' ( WIAT) programme). There is a correlation between deprivation and poor air quality for nitrogen dioxide, PM ₁₀, benzene and carbon monoxide. Environmental improvements can make an important contribution to environmental justice as the most deprived communities often live in the worst environments. People living in the most deprived areas have particular concerns about their local environment and quality of life issues such as vandalism, crime, safety, the behaviour of young people, litter and dereliction.

Cultural Heritage

OVERVIEW

Scotland has a rich historic environment resource which includes both architectural and archaeological heritage. The historic environment contributes to cultural identity, quality of life and income generation. A large number of sites are designated for their architectural quality, preservation and/or cultural importance, reflecting their international, national or regional significance.

The five World Heritage Sites comprise: St Kilda (a Natural and Cultural World Heritage Site), Edinburgh Old and New Towns, New Lanark, The Heart of Neolithic Orkney and the recent addition of the Antonine Wall to the 'Frontiers of the Roman Empire' WHS, which also includes the German Limes and Hadrian's Wall.

Table C2 Designated Sites, Buildings and Landscapes¹⁵

Data on the condition of Scheduled Monuments shows that in 2007 85% were shown to be in optimal or satisfactory condition with 13% in a generally unsatisfactory condition and 2% with extensive significant problems ¹⁶. An analysis of this data shows that prehistoric monuments (most likely to be field monuments where deterioration is harder to identify) are in the best condition as a group, with crosses and carved stones, ecclesiastical and secular scheduled monuments (most likely to be built of stone and exposed to the elements) having higher unsatisfactory scores.

There is also some data available on the condition of listed buildings from the Scottish Civic Trust's Buildings At Risk ( BAR) register which shows that in 2006, 1036 of the 3055 buildings on the register were at risk of deterioration (82% of these were listed buildings) ¹⁷.

RCAHMS¹⁸ carries out an annual programme of field and aerial survey in Scotland and the RCAHMS archive provides a useful record of undesignated historical sites. As of March 2007 there were approximately 129 000 archaeological sites, 130 000 architectural records and 15 000 maritime records within RCAHMS databases which highlights the large undesignated number of heritage assets within Scotland ¹⁹.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

The historic environment as a whole (both designated and un-designated sites) is subject to many pressures due to both the prevalence and fragile nature of historic monuments, buildings and landscapes. Although heritage assets are protected through national systems of designation, mechanisms such as the planning system and government payments to farmers, there are numerous stresses caused by both natural processes (such as climate change and erosion) and human interventions (such as new development).

Key challenges for the historic environment are noted as being ²⁰:

1. Short-term visions for the development of places;

2. Changing land management practices and restructuring in the farming industry;

3. Lack of knowledge of how older buildings were constructed and their maintenance needs;

4. Loss of sites to coastal and plough erosion;

5. Inappropriate change that reduces the cultural significance, or detracts from the appearance or quality of conservation areas;

6. The needs of renewable energy generation.

Initial work for Scotland's Historic Environment Audit ( SHEA) notes that there is no national picture of the current or changing condition of the historic environment however SHEA aims to create headline indicators to more accurately measure trends in the future.

Soils

OVERVIEW

Soil is essentially a non-renewable resource and provides an important asset that supports a wide range of vital functions on which we rely, including food production and storing significant amounts of carbon. Scotland's soils are in generally good health, however there are a series of identified threats and pressures. Soils provide the basis for biomass production from agriculture and forestry. Soils suitable for arable cropping are largely found in eastern Scotland, and are relatively limited in extent, whilst lowland soils in the west of Scotland support productive pastures and a successful dairy industry. They also support a range of biodiversity, both on and in the soil, and are a component of nationally and internationally valued habitats.

Soils also provide a buffering function through regulating our water supply and protecting it from contamination. Scottish soils are characteristically high in carbon content, accounting for over 50% of total UK carbon soil content ²¹. As such, they offer a valuable function as a carbon sink, and this should be weighed against any perceived carbon benefits from biomass growth and extraction. Soils also provide a platform for development for buildings and infrastructure.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

Key threats to soils include ²²:

• Loss of organic matter: There is some evidence that levels of organic matter in Scottish soils may be declining. The study identified the need to determine the status and change in soil organic carbon content in Scottish soils as a priority.
• Climate change: There is a difficulty in predicting the effects of climate change on soils, however these are likely to include direct impacts on key soil properties such as soil organic matter content, and indirect impacts relating to changes in land management associated with adaptation responses.
• Loss of biodiversity: Soil biodiversity is extensive, but also an area where there is a lack of knowledge. There is a need for further work to increase knowledge of soil biodiversity on designated sites, and to increase awareness and understanding of the role of soils in valued habitats.
• Structural degradation and compaction: Erosion of cultivated mineral soils is identified as of limited impact. Erosion of organic soils is more evident and potentially could increase in frequency and severity under certain climate change scenarios. A need for the establishment of protocols to determine the threat and incidence of soil erosion on agricultural soils is required. Further research is required into the mechanisms that trigger peat erosion, and developing mitigation strategies to help reduce its impacts.
• Soil contamination: This is not identified as a significant issue, although there is some evidence that sewage sludge application may have a negative impact on the long term fertility of some soils.
• Soil sealing and mineral extraction: Agricultural land is being developed at twice the rate as in the mid 1990s. Soil sealing has a profound effect on the ability of soils to perform other functions and is essentially irreversible. There is a requirement to collect more information on the area of land being developed, the location and quality of the land.

o Cultural heritage: Soil erosion, sealing and mineral extraction are the significant threats to archaeological sites. There is a need for an evaluation of existing policies to provide guidance for the protection of culturally significant soils.

• Erosion²³: occurs principally by the action of water and wind and can become a problem when effects are enhanced through poor management. Land management practices can increase the rate of soil loss. Farmers are now required to keep land in 'good agricultural and environmental condition' by adopting practical measures that avoid damage to soil, habitats and vegetation. Climate change is identified as a threat which may change the pattern of soil erosion in the future. Severe weather can act as a trigger for landslides and debris flow that can damage road, rail and other essential infrastructure.

Threats from erosion, compaction and contamination are often localised (although sometimes severe), but are easier to rectify than other impacts. Soil sealing, loss of biodiversity and acidification are more significant threats at the national level, potentially threatening almost all soil functions. Climate change and loss of organic matter represent the most major threat to soil function, potentially hampering natural processes and impairing micro-organism action.

Water

OVERVIEW

Water quality in Scotland has improved over recent years and is now thought to be generally good due to efforts to reduce pollution and control discharges. The quality in the larger rivers and estuaries, such as the Clyde and Forth, has also improved although water quality problems remain around centres of population. Sustainable Drainage Schemes ( SuDS), which have become common practice in new developments, have also been a key factor in reducing the deterioration of urban watercourses.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

Water quality is a key indicator of the overall health of the natural environment. Headline figures from SEPA's Water Environment Review 2000-2006 ²⁴ show a reduction of 37% in the lengths of rivers and canals that were of poor or seriously polluted condition in that timescale. Targets to improve estuaries were not achieved however a reduction of 72% was achieved for unsatisfactory and seriously polluted coastal waters. The Review also notes that although water quality is improving diffuse pollution from both farmland and urban areas is still a significant issue and remains the largest source of water pollution.

SEPA has also recently produced Significant Water Management Issues ( SWMI) reports for both the Scotland and the Solway-Tweed River Basin Districts to reflect the new way of managing the water environment under the requirements of the Water Framework Directive. Current assessments show that 40% of Scotland's waters will fail the environmental standards required to support good ecology. ²⁵ The Scotland SWMI Report notes the following as significant issues affecting the water environment:

1. Rivers, lochs, estuaries and groundwater along the east coast, central belt and south west which are polluted by diffuse agricultural pollution;

2. Urban rivers polluted by sewer overflows and contaminated run-off from roads;

3. Rivers and lochs in the highlands affected by abstractions and the construction of dams for hydropower and drinking water supply;

4. Rivers and estuaries where damage to the physical condition (morphology) has been caused by urban development and agricultural intensification across lowland Scotland;

5. Estuaries, rivers and lochs where invasive alien species have replaced native species.

The Scotland SWMI Report also highlights the importance of climate change in addressing the quality of the water environment. A rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns are likely to result in direct impacts on surface water ecosystems, including greater eutrophication and pollution issues where there are lower river flows to provide dilution for discharges. Water demand is likely to increase from all sectors but particularly agriculture (for irrigation needs in the east coast), forestry and public supply with substantial reductions in ground water flows in the east of the country. Flooding and rainfall will also result in increased siltation and nutrient loading to lochs and the sea. The increased prevalence of alien species also poses a threat to native aquatic plants and animals.

Landscape

OVERVIEW

The landscapes of Scotland are key assets of the natural and cultural heritage and are also a continually changing resource, shaped by a combination of both human and natural factors. This dynamism is both a strength - in that is has created a rich mosaic of high quality landscapes across the nation - and a weakness, as unmanaged change can obliterate significant natural and cultural features and result in homogenisation and loss of character. The history of Scotland from the last ice age to the present day is inscribed across the landscape, interwoven with important natural habitats and features, creating a unique and irreplaceable resource.

Active management of change in the landscape is therefore the priority, protecting valued assets while allowing well-planned and sensitive change in areas with suitable capacity for development or changes in use.

Designated sites

A number of Scotland's highest quality landscapes have been designated as Natural Scenic Areas ( NSA) for their outstanding scenic interest. They have been selected for their characteristic features of scenery comprising a mixture of diverse landscapes, including prominent and iconic landforms, coastline, sea and freshwater lochs, rivers, woodlands and moorlands.

40 landscapes, covering some 1,020,500ha of land and a further 357,900ha of marine area (amounting to 12.7% of the surface area of Scotland), are currently designated NSAs. It is national policy that these areas should be protected from inappropriate development and loss of landscape character.

In addition to nationally designated sites, many local authorities designate Areas of Great Landscape Value (or equivalent nomenclature) in their development plans that they consider sensitive to certain types of development. These areas are often important for local economies, attracting large numbers of tourists and forming a fundamental aspect of local business - notably the whisky and outdoor leisure industries - and are important in the creation of distinctive local identity.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

The Landscape Character Assessment work undertaken in the mid 1990s by SNH identified a number of trends affecting the landscape that were either widespread or increasing, these included ²⁶:

1. Changes to the built environment such as urban expansion, village expansion, telecommunications masts, road improvement, new single houses in the countryside, wind farms in non-urban settings, quarrying and extraction, loss of historical/archaeological features.

2. Changes to farmland including reduction in semi-natural grasslands, grassland converted to arable, removal of field boundaries, large new buildings, the dereliction of steadings.

3. Changes to woodland including new large scale coniferous afforestation in mountain and moorland settings and new broadleaved/mixed woodland planting in mountain and moorland settings with some small scale woodland on farmland.

4. Changes to fresh water settings and coastal settings including flood prevention works, fish farms, waste management schemes, tourism developments and erosion and engineering defence works.

5. Pressures on mountain and moorland settings such as tourism and recreation development and wind turbines for electricity generation.

SNH's work on Natural Heritage Indicators (as part of the 'Trends and Indicators Programme') are being used as a reporting tool for the state of the natural heritage. Indicator 4 is 'Landscape Change' which examines the visual influence of land cover and development as an indicator of changing landscape character ²⁷. Initial research to inform this indicator shows that between 2002 and 2005 the area unaffected by visual influence declined from 42% of Scotland to 32% and this was attributed mainly to the development of tall structures such as wind turbines ²⁸.

Further research into the impacts of climate change on landscape is currently being carried out by SNH (work ongoing). ²⁹ This work draws together information from a range of sources to illustrate the impacts of climate change on different landscape types. Key findings include the direct impacts of climate change such as coastal flooding and erosion, the loss of low lying areas of land and an increase in river flooding and erosion which could result in dramatic changes in landscape character. A rise in temperature and increased rainfall will also impact semi natural habitats and trees and woodland in particular as habitat space shifts northwards. Further impacts of climate change on landscape will also result from adaptation measures. These are most likely to include the continued development of windfarms in upland areas, planting of new woodland to contribute to carbon sequestration, flood management, managed realignment and the upgrading of coastal flood defences.

Air and Climate

OUTLINE

Air quality can vary considerably across Scotland is and is dependent on many factors including local and national weather conditions and emissions of substances to air both within and outside Scotland ³⁰. Air pollution can have repercussions for many aspects of quality of life, including human health and biodiversity.

The sources ³¹ and distribution of emissions levels for particulates, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and sulphur dioxide across the UK in 2005 ³² are as follows:

• PM ₁₀ particles (the fraction of particulates in air of very small size (<10 _m) are of major current concern, as they are small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and so potentially pose significant health risks. The principal source of airborne PM ₁₀ matter in European cities is road traffic emissions, particularly from diesel vehicles. For PM ₁₀s the emissions data for 2003 shows higher concentrations across the major urban areas of Scotland with highest concentrations in the larger towns and cities and along major roads such as the A9.
• Nitrogen oxides are formed during high temperature combustion processes from the oxidation of nitrogen in the air or fuel. The principal source of nitrogen oxides is road traffic, which is responsible for approximately half the emissions in Europe. Other important sources are power stations, heating plants and industrial processes. The distribution of nitrogen oxides as NO ₂ is concentrated in the urban areas, with highest levels particularly the central belt but the data also shows slightly higher levels across some of the upland areas of Scotland including the north west and Cairngorms plateau.
• Carbon monoxide ( CO) is a toxic gas which is emitted into the atmosphere as a result of combustion processes, and is also formed by the oxidation of hydrocarbons and other organic compounds. In European urban areas, CO is produced almost entirely (90%) from road traffic emissions. It survives in the atmosphere for a period of approximately one month but is eventually oxidised to carbon dioxide (CO ₂) which, although non-toxic, is the major 'greenhouse' gas. Emissions of carbon monoxide are localised in their extent to the immediate urban areas and major roads with highest concentrations in the major cities and the widest extent of higher levels of pollution within the central belt.
• Sulphur dioxide (SO ₂) is an acidic gas which combines with water vapour in the atmosphere to produce acid rain. Both wet and dry deposition has been implicated in the damage and destruction of vegetation and in the degradation of soils, building materials and watercourses. SO ₂ in ambient air can also affect human health, particularly in those suffering from asthma and chronic lung diseases. The principal source of this gas is power stations burning fossil fuels which contain sulphur. Sulphur dioxide emissions are again localised in the urban areas with higher concentrations across the central belt.

Changes in climate are already evident in Scotland from observed trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover, higher river flows leading to flood risk, and rising sea levels causing erosion.

Overall, Scotland has become much wetter during the winter since 1961 while areas in the east are becoming drier in the summer months. Winter precipitation has increased by almost 60% in the north and west. Scotland's annual average precipitation has increased by 20%. Analysis of Scottish river flow data indicates an increase in high flow frequencies for western rivers over the past two decades, while in contrast in the east, values were highest in the 1950s and 1960s.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

Targets set by the UK Air Quality Strategy have generally been met, including in relation to PM ₁₀, NO ₂ and SO ₂. However, there continue to be problems with reducing CO ₂ emissions (as noted in relation to climatic factors, energy and transport sectors). Record levels of ozone depletion were recorded over Scotland in 2005, with a 5% decline in stratospheric ozone recorded over the last 20 years.

Ground level ozone (O3) levels are a growing problem and ozone has impacts on human health, irritating the airways of the lungs and increasing the symptoms of those suffering from asthma and lung diseases, and also affects plants. Annual mean trends for ground level ozone ³³ indicate that on average the concentrations of ozone in rural areas appear to be showing a gradually increasing trend, perhaps related to the recent warm summers.

As noted previously, in Scotland key sources of air pollution include the energy sector and transport. Whilst, many pollutants have decreased as a result of shift to unleaded fuel and the installation of catalytic converters in vehicles since 1990 (e.g. 75% decrease in CO ₂ as a result of the latter, between 1990 and 2004), SEPA contend that the increase in vehicle use will offset any further gains achieved through reductions in emissions. Overall, although air quality in Scotland is improving, further measures will be required to avoid secondary impacts from air pollution on health, ecosystems and water quality ³⁴.

Air pollutant concentrations vary across Scotland due to climate and geography ³⁵. In general the north west is remote from this problem, but the more densely populated Forth and Clyde lowlands have the highest concentrations of poor air quality.

Air Quality Management Areas ( AQMA) have been declared in Aberdeen City, East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh, Falkirk, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, Dundee and Perth and Kinross. A large proportion of these were designated in 2005/2006 partly reflecting better monitoring and tighter standards. There is significant variation in the extent of these areas from individual roads to the whole local authority area, as in Dundee.

Increasing temperatures will cause changes in behaviour which in turn will lead to changes in emissions of air quality pollutants. Examples of such changes include greater use of air conditioning in summer, decreased use of heating in homes and offices in winter and increased evaporative emissions from petrol. In the UK, however, there is likely to be a decrease in emissions of most air quality pollutants and their precursors over the next 20 - 30 years, not because of a decrease in our use of fossil fuels, but because of improved technology, such as particle traps in vehicles and nitrogen oxide reduction techniques. These improvements are driven by legislation, for example EU legislation to reduce emissions from road transport. In addition, the UK Government has pledged to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 60%, relative to 1990 levels, by 2060. If appropriate decisions are made, this is also likely to reduce emissions of air quality pollutants, since many air quality and climate change pollutants have the same sources ³⁶.

Poor air quality in winter occurs in cold conditions with stagnant air. Under these conditions, called inversions, the air is colder near the ground than it is at a height of approximately 100 metres. This traps the air near the ground and emissions, especially from road vehicles, can build up leading to high concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter in cities. Climate change is likely to reduce the frequency of such episodes, because our winters are predicted to become windier. Climate change is already bringing an increase in winter rainfall. Since rainfall washes aerosols and soluble gases from the atmosphere, this change could also improve air quality.

The global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. The 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 temperatures for Scotland are the highest since the record began in 1914 ³⁷. The UKCIP02 ³⁸ climate change scenarios predict that by the 2080s temperatures will rise by up to 3.5°C in the summer and 2.5°C in the winter, and that there will also be changes in precipitation, snowfall (up to a 90% reduction), seasonality, cloud cover, humidity, wind speeds, soil moisture, extreme weather (especially rainfall events) and seasons, and sea levels as a result of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change within Scotland are predicted to vary. For example, summer rainfall is expected to reduce by 10% in most of the country except the north west, and much more substantial increases in spring and autumn rainfall in the south west and north east of the country are envisaged. Updated and more detailed UKCP09 climate change scenarios are currently under development and will be released in 2009.

Further evidence of Scottish climate change has been provided in research by SNIFFER. ³⁹ This includes data showing a 25% reduction in frost days since 1961, a shorter snow season and a lengthened growing season. Many of these trends appear to be most significant in north and west regions of Scotland.

Climate change could have many different impacts on wider aspects of the environment, including water resources and flooding, biodiversity, some of Scotland's key economic sectors (including tourism and agriculture), population, health and wellbeing. The SEPA State of the Environment 2006 ⁴⁰ report notes that climate change will accelerate if left unchecked, with major consequences. It also states that there is a real danger that CO ₂ levels and the use of fossil fuels could reach irreversible levels if action is not taken in relation to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The Scottish Climate Change Programme ⁴¹ sets out the way in which it is intended that Scotland continues to contribute to the climate change agenda. This entails both demand and supply driven measures for mitigation, and is increasingly expressed in terms of adaptation. It notes that Scotland has achieved a net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 14% between 1990 and 2003, but sets out further action including in relation to specific sectors such as energy, transport, business and residential development. The Scottish Government recently announced its intention to prepare new legislation that will set a new ambitious target of reducing CO ₂ emissions by 80% by 2050. This is significantly higher than the UK target of 60% that is likely to require a step change in national policy and action on climate change.'

Material Assets

Waste

OUTLINE

The National Waste Plan aimed to recycle or compost 25% of municipal waste, and this target has now been exceeded. However, each household in Scotland produced an average of 1,197 kg of waste in 2005/2006, reflecting an ongoing increase. Waste management facilities - notably incinerators and landfill sites - have been associated with a number of health and environmental effects, but evidence suggests that these effects are generally minor, with further research being required to confirm this.

SEPA monitors waste management, including the amount of waste which is sent to landfill. It also records the proportion of this that is Biodegradable Municipal Waste ( BMW), which contributes to air, soil and water pollution if sent to landfill, and is therefore a priority for reduction / recycling targets.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

The amount of BMW in Scotland has declined in recent years (estimated at 1.6 million tonnes in 2005), but further work will be required if targets set under the EU Landfill Directive are to be met (1.32 million tonnes by 2010, 0.88 million tonnes by 2013, and 0.62 million tonnes by 2020). Furthermore, the National Waste Plan aimed to ensure that 25% of municipal waste was recycled or composted by 2006, with available figures showing that this stood at 22.8% in 2005. ⁴².

SEPA monitoring ⁴³ records that across all waste types there has been an overall increase in controlled waste arisings from 2004/2005 to 2006/2007.

The most significant change was in construction and demolition waste, which increased by 62% from 7.3 million tonnes in 2004/05 to 11.8 million tonnes in 2006/07. However, minerals recycling initiatives, such as WRAP's AggRegain programme, may begin to reduce these figures as contractors make increased use of reworked concrete and other building waste as aggregates. The growth in household waste arisings was fairly consistent, with an increase of 3.2% between 2004/05 and 2005/06 and a 3.8% increase between 2005/06 and 2006/07. There was a 21% decrease in commercial waste arisings from 2004/05 to 2006/07.

The recent decrease in construction activity may also have an indirect effect on waste management, as lower demand for aggregates could have a knock-on effect for the availability of suitable sites for landfill disposal.

Between 2002/2003 and 2006/2007 the quantity of municipal waste collected for recycling and composting by Scottish Local Authorities increased by 298%. The increase in household recycling and composting was mainly due to the diversion of materials that would have previously been disposed of. The rise in recycling and composting has been driven by the need to meet the targets set by the (then) Scottish Executive and the Scottish Government.

Research carried out by DEFRA (2006) ⁴⁴ investigated the carbon flows, energy and greenhouse gas benefits and impacts associated with alternative management routes for the predominant waste materials arising in the UK. The findings identified particular potential for reducing carbon flows, energy and greenhouse gas benefits and impacts for waste management through:

• energy recovery via anaerobic digestion of agricultural manures/slurries;
• energy recovery via combustion of waste wood;
• recovery of both resources (through recycling) and energy (through combustion) from waste paper and card; and
• recycling of non-ferrous metals.

Although there remain uncertainties associated with the savings, support for the above recovery projects will bring particular benefits in terms of reducing the environmental impacts of waste.

Energy

OUTLINE

Electricity generated from coal in Scotland has declined between 2000 and 2004 (33% to 26%), but there has been a slight increase in gas and oil output (22% to 26%) during the same period. 11.5% of electricity generated in Scotland in 2004 was from a renewable source, particularly hydropower at 8.9%. The Scottish Government's target of generating 18% of electricity from renewable sources by 2010 has already been met. Further work will be required to meet the target of generating 40% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020.

Department of Trade and Industry statistics ⁴⁵ show that total electricity produced in Scotland for 2005 was approximately 49 Terawatt hours (TWh). The major sources of electricity in Scotland in 2005 were nuclear (38%), coal (25%) and gas (17%). Renewables accounted for 13% and oil for 6% of electricity generation. Total electricity consumption in Scotland for 2005 was 35.6 TWh.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

The energy sector remains a key source of CO ₂ generated in Scotland, with emissions having increased by 8% since 1990, despite a decrease in combined greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland between 1990 and 2003, and an 8% decrease in CO ₂ generated overall. ⁴⁶ Government's intention to invest in a new coal-fired power station at Hunterston ⁴⁷ and potentially extending the operational lives of the Longannet and Cockenzie generating stations has significant implications for emissions in the longer term. Although newer infrastructure will doubtless be more efficient and have lower overall emissions, the fact remains that 'clean coal' and 'carbon capture' technology, upon which assumptions in the National Planning Framework are based, have not been proven at the industrial scale. However, co-firing of biomass - or the development of a separate biomass-fuelled station on the same site - may go some way to reducing the carbon emissions of the new infrastructure.

Fuel poverty ⁴⁸ is also a significant problem, with an estimated 286,000 homes falling into this category in 2002. It is estimated that this is likely to now be substantially higher (c.600,000) as a result of more recent energy price increases. ⁴⁹

Scotland's significant renewable energy potential has further capacity to contribute to an overall reduction in emissions from the electricity generation sector. Galbraith et al (2006) ⁵⁰ provides a range of values for the potential of biomass feedstocks in Scotland, based on potential forestry, agricultural and waste sources. This report estimates that there is about 500 MW of electricity potential and 1265 MW from heat and CHP, though the author urges that these figures should be treated with caution. The Renewables Obligation Scotland, which specifies that the proportion of energy crops within fossil fuel co-firing plants should increase up to 75% by 2015 will continue to stimulate biomass development.

In 2004 the report "Harnessing Scotland's Marine Energy Potential" prepared by the Marine Energy Group ( MEG) identified that up to 10% of Scotland's electricity generation could come from wave and tidal stream power by 2020. As such, this would contribute significantly to the Scottish Executive's target of generating 40% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020 - however, little concrete progress has been made on rolling out this technology at a commercial scale.

In 2006 the total installed capacity of energy generation from hydro, wind and wave, landfill gas and other biofuels in Scotland was 2,397.1 MW⁵², an increase in 43% on the installed generating capacity in 2003. The largest increase in installed generating capacity over this period was in wind and wave from 308.2 MW to 946.5 MW.

Transport

OUTLINE

Transport is the second largest generator of CO ₂ emissions in Scotland, with the emissions from road transport having grown from 9.28 million tonnes in 1990 to 9.97 million tonnes in 2005, accounting for 29% of total energy consumption in Scotland, with 99% being from non-renewable fuels. It is predicted that emissions from this source will rise further in the coming years, and that energy use by the air transport sector will rise substantially. Scottish Indicators of Sustainable Development confirm this, showing that other measures of transport sustainability emphasise the need for further action to reduce overall travel distance and achieve a greater shift away from use of the car for travelling to work ⁵².

TRENDS AND STRESSES

The Scottish Executive Transport Strategy 2006 identifies a number of key trends in travel and transport. The estimated average distance travelled per person per year increased by 59% between 1985/86 and 2004/05 although there was little change in the total time spent travelling, which has averaged around 350 hours per person per year ⁵³. In 2004/05, 23% of journeys of under a mile and 57% of journeys of between one and two miles were undertaken by car. In 2005, over two thirds of commuters travelled to work by car and over a fifth of pupils travelled to school by car (National Travel Survey 2004/5) and the vast majority of visitors to Scotland travel by car.

Latest forecasts suggest road traffic in Scotland will grow by 12% between 2005 and 2010 and by 22% between 2005 and 2015 ⁵⁴]. However, in 2005 the total volume of traffic was more or less the same as in 2004. There have been recoveries in numbers using public transport. Buses are the dominant form of public transport in terms of journey numbers (479 million local bus passenger journeys in 2004- 05 compared with almost 73 million passenger journeys on rail) ⁵⁵. Bus passenger numbers have fallen considerably since a peak of over 1,000 million per year in the 1960s, but there have been rises in six of the last seven years. Similarly, rail passenger figures fell between the 1960s and the mid nineties but have been rising since and are now comparable to the mid 1960s figure. ⁵⁶.

The railways also play an important role for freight transport with 10.9 million tonnes of rail freight lifted in Scotland in 2004/05. 6.9 million tonnes went to destinations outside Scotland while 1.5 million tonnes came into Scotland by rail. Coal and other minerals accounted for three-quarters of the freight lifted in 2004/05. Rail accounted for 5.1% of the total weight of freight lifted by all modes in 2004/05, but 11.3% of the tonne-kilometres, due to rail freight tending to travel longer distances. Of all freight lifted in Scotland, 59% was delivered elsewhere within the UK and about 5% was delivered outwith the UK⁵⁷. Air travel is predicted to rise by 150% between 2004 and 2030, with strategic enhancements to Scotland's major airports identified as 'national developments' in the proposed National Planning Framework.

Vacant and Derelict Land

OUTLINE

Derelict, vacant and contaminated land (commonly referred to as brownfield sites) has been identified as a key issue for the industrialised and urban areas of Scotland. ⁵⁸⁵⁹ Substantial pockets exist in the central belt and in the vicinity of the key centres of population as a legacy of former mining and heavy industrial areas. The redevelopment of such areas poses significant challenges. Contaminated soils and other materials may be present, derelict infrastructure may need to be removed, there will be a need to ensure safe restoration for alternative uses and to prevent further soil and groundwater pollution. In addition the construction of housing estates has the potential to have an effect on water quality, either during construction (disturbance of suspended solids, accidental spill) or via polluted run-off once the estate is in operation (from parking areas and feeder roads).

TRENDS AND STRESSES

The Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey ⁶⁰ indicates that there was a total of 10,386ha of derelict and urban vacant land in Scotland in 2006. This reflects a substantial decline over the preceding decade, from more than 15,000ha in 1993, largely as a result of redevelopment, but also partly due to naturalisation of some areas. Much of the country's derelict and vacant land is concentrated in North Lanarkshire, Glasgow, Renfrewshire and Highland (with these areas together accounting for 44% of the total). Around a fifth of the land has been derelict or urban vacant for more than 25 years.

It is likely that the current economic downturn will have an effect on the rates of brownfield reclamation through development.

Property and industry

OUTLINE

The last thirty years have seen a profound shift in housing in Scotland. In 1981, less than 40% of the national housing stock was owner-occupied. By 2008, this had risen to nearly 70%. Although this is part of a generally similar pattern across Europe, this change has been particularly dramatic in Scotland, with a change of 31% since 1982 ⁶¹. This can, in part, be attributed to a change in cultural attitudes regarding home ownership. Two significant structural factors have accompanied this change: the introduction of the right to buy for public authority tenants in 1979, coupled with a rapid decline in public authority new build; and the increased contribution of private sector house building.

Like the rest of the UK, many areas of Scotland suffer from a chronic shortage of affordable housing across all sectors. This is partly a result of the trend of house price inflation from the late 1990s and the relative lack of suitable options in the private and social rented sectors. Demand has been fuelled by economic, financial and demographic factors - including a longer-lived population and a reduction in household size - which have increased pressure on supply and created a feedback loop, driving prices upwards. The market has conspicuously failed to respond to demand, creating additional pressure on the social and private rented sectors, and sustained price increases have not been met with any significant increase in overall supply. Similarly, until relatively recently design and environmental standards in house building were generally poor with little reference to context or the overall sustainability of developments.

Scottish industry has undergone similar upheaval throughout this period, with a steep decline in deep mining, heavy industry and traditional manufacturing. Growth, and subsequent contraction, of the electronics sector during the 1990s and early 2000s has resulted in an economy strongly focussed on the service sector - notably finance and insurance. Growth rates in Scottish GDP, although shadowing those of the UK as a whole, remain around 1% lower overall - although the gap has narrowed significantly since the late 1990s. The Scottish Government has set a target of matching UK growth rates by 2011. Scotland's productivity was ranked 15th against the OECD countries, and Government has sent an objective of ranking in the top quartile of our OECD trading partners by 2017.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

Between 2006-7 and 2007-8 the supply of new housing in Scotland increased by 5%, with the rate of completions running at around 27,000 units per year (including refurbishments and conversions) ⁶². Despite this, demand continued to outstrip supply to a significant degree, particularly in Edinburgh and the Lothians, Glasgow, Perth and Kinross and Highland, where price inflation continued to make housing less affordable year on year. However, the ongoing global financial crisis has precipitated profound changes in the housing sector which are likely to be significant in the short to medium term. Private sector completions are likely to fall dramatically and, with a shortage of available credit, fewer people will be able to purchase homes. This will increase pressure on private and social rented stock, particularly if rates of repossessions and evictions continue to rise in the wake of economic contraction and resultant job losses.

The Scottish financial services industry has been severely affected by the economic crisis, with major institutions - which are significant employers, particularly in Edinburgh - relying on state support for survival. The full effect of this remains to be seen. However, significant Scottish and UK fiscal packages are in place to bring forward public spending - including £120million for the Affordable Housing Programme - should help to bolster sections of the economy against the worst effects.

Agriculture and forestry

OUTLINE

Between 1990 and 1995, Scottish aggregate farm incomes almost trebled in real terms, representing the high point for farming in the modern era. From 1995 however prices fell sharply and continued to decline as a result of BSE (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy), the strength of Sterling, weak world commodity prices and the 2001 Foot and Mouth outbreak. In real terms, total income from farming has recovered to two-thirds of the 1995 peak ⁶³. Aquaculture, including fin and shellfish production, employs around 1,800 jobs in Scotland and contributed approximately £401million to the economy in 2007 ⁶⁴.

A total of 7.2million m ³ of standing timber was harvested from Scottish forests in 2007, an increase of 60% from the 1997 level. The last forecast of softwood conifer production indicated that timber availability would rise from an annual average of 6.9million m ³ in the period 2007-11, to around 8.2million m ³ in 2012-16 and 8.9million m ³ in 2017-21 ⁶⁵. Hardwood production is around 50,000m ³ per annum, but FCS calculates that more could be produced if suitable market and processing infrastructure were available. The practice of forestry has changed radically in recent years, particularly in the state sector, with an increasing emphasis on securing access, health, landscape and biodiversity benefits in parallel with ensuring viable strategic timber reserves.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

Farm incomes have shown a marked increase since 2005, rising by an average of £10,000 by 2007/8. The biggest increases have been experienced by in arable and dairy farms and have been driven by increases in the value of cereal and milk output. However, these figures also incorporate higher grant and subsidy payments compared with previous years. However, the upward trend in fuel, fertilisers, lime and animal feed is likely to have an increased effect on net income. The trend for amalgamation of lowland arable farms is likely to continue, given the increasing benefits of economies of scale. Climate change represents a significant threat - but also an opportunity - for agriculture in Scotland. Although changing weather patterns may precipitate changes in traditional practice, lengthening growing seasons - particularly in Eastern Scotland - may increase arable production potential. Similarly, increases in average temperatures may enable farmers to bring previously marginal ground into production. As the effects of climate change take hold in the southern UK, the cropping potential of northern farms may significantly increase in importance.

The same factors are likely to have an impact on Scotland's forestry industry, with climate change affecting the range and provenance of tree species that can be successfully grown. Drought and pest-resistant strains will become increasingly important, with potential impacts on landscape character and the structure of the industry. Moves to address the lack of suitable processing infrastructure may, in the medium to long term, increase the potential of the hardwood sector, which is often lucrative.

Tourism and recreation

OUTLINE

Tourism is one of Scotland's largest business sectors. It is an important element in the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of the nation, from major cities to rural areas - many of which depend on the industry for jobs and infrastructure. Tourism-related activity is worth around £4.2billion per year to the Scottish economy, attracting around 16 million tourists and accounting for over 9% of employment.

TRENDS AND STRESSES

Provisional visitor figures for 2007 show an increase of around 1% in the total number of visits to Scotland from overseas residents, compared to the previous year. This amounts to around 2.8 million visits per year. Domestic visitors (i.e. UK residents) took over 13 million trips to Scotland, contributing around £2.8billion to the economy.

The reputation of Scotland as a destination on the international stage, particularly in relation to sport and outdoor pursuits, continues to rise. Notable successes include the annual leg of the World Mountain-biking Championships held in Fort William. Golf tourism alone is worth around £300million to the economy; with golfers spending on average twice that of other visitors.

The Ryder Cup and the Commonwealth Games, both in 2014, are likely to attract significant numbers of additional visitors to the country.

The current financial crisis may limit the numbers of foreign visitors coming to Scotland, although the weakness of Sterling may attract additional European visitors. However, the Scottish Government predict that the 2009 'Year of Homecoming' will be worth an additional £40million to the economy and will create a positive legacy, attracting visitors in coming years.

The considerable cultural and heritage attractions of Scotland, including the whisky industry and high quality historic environment assets, are also a significant factor in attracting visitors. However, the current financial climate is already severely affecting available funds for investment in this area, with major budget cuts for Historic Scotland and a dramatic downturn in revenues from state and NGO-operated properties in care.