Scottish Government

Report produced for Scottish Government under project ADA/011/07
ISBN 978 0 7559 1926 0 (Web only publication)
This document is also available in pdf format (2.8mb)

Contents

Summary

1 Introduction
1.1 Objectives
1.2 Approaches to this project

2 Diffuse pollution pressures
2.1 Impact of diffuse water pollution
2.2 Farm-types
2.3 Forestry
2.4 Risks associated with rural land-use
2.5 'Typical' diffuse pollution losses - base-line 2004
2.5.1 Total phosphorus losses from rough grassland and upland areas
2.5.2 N and P losses from forestry
2.6 SNIFFER Screening Tool

3 Mitigation measures
3.1 Types of measures
3.2 Review of effectiveness
3.2.1 Nitrate
3.2.2 Phosphorus
3.2.3 Sediment
3.2.4 FIOs

4 Policy mechanisms
4.1 Summary of mechanisms
4.2 Uptake of measures
4.2.1 Land management contracts

5 Land-use change
5.1 FAPRI-adjusted BAUIII projections
5.2 Forestry trends
5.2.1 Felling
5.2.2 Planting

6 Phase II: GAP analysis - Method development
6.1 Overview of approach
6.2 Uncertainty and sensitivity
6.2.1 Changes in Livestock and Cropping
6.2.2 Effects of changes in measure effectiveness percentages
6.2.3 Effects of P export coefficient value changes

7 Gap analysis - results and discussion
7.1 Diffuse pollutant losses - 2004 baseline (without measure uptake)
7.1.1 Comparing 2004 and 2015 scenarios against WFD77 database values
7.1.2 Application of policy scenarios to the WFD77 database
7.1.3 Spatial variation in application of policy scenarios
7.2 Change by sub-basin regions
7.3 Changes beyond 2015
7.4 Sensitivity of results to changed assumptions
7.4.1 Effects of animal numbers
7.4.2 Effects of P export coefficient value changes
7.4.3 Effects of changes in measure effectiveness percentages

8 Conclusions and future research needs
8.1 WFD77 database
8.2 Available mitigation measures
8.3 Policy mechanisms and their uptake
8.4 Projections of land-use
8.5 GAP analysis
8.6 Future research needs

9 References

Appendix I Typical diffuse pollutant losses
Appendix II List of mitigation measures
Appendix III Effectiveness of measures
Appendix IV Uptake of measures
Appendix V Method applied to Phase II