Appendix B - Sub-national models for estimating labour market states
Table B1 Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.591*** | 1.118*** | 0.587** |
| (0.178) | (0.182) | (0.280) |
higher education | 1.375*** | 0.850*** | 0.136 |
| (0.184) | (0.187) | (0.325) |
A-level or equivalent | 0.947*** | 0.726*** | 0.089 |
| (0.141) | (0.145) | (0.234) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 0.718*** | 0.625*** | 0.366 |
| (0.150) | (0.151) | (0.239) |
other qualification | 0.386** | 0.334** | 0.017 |
| (0.154) | (0.160) | (0.265) |
long-term illness | -1.467*** | -0.968*** | -0.730*** |
| (0.099) | (0.102) | (0.179) |
age2024 | 0.140 | -0.864*** | -0.395 |
| (0.215) | (0.205) | (0.265) |
age2529 | 0.934*** | -0.030 | -0.200 |
| (0.245) | (0.236) | (0.350) |
age3034 | 0.721*** | -0.305 | -0.364 |
| (0.241) | (0.232) | (0.329) |
age3539 | 0.775*** | -0.412* | -0.039 |
| (0.227) | (0.216) | (0.309) |
age40over | 0.204 | -0.897*** | -0.713*** |
| (0.194) | (0.184) | (0.274) |
female | -0.607*** | -0.005 | -0.886*** |
| (0.102) | (0.106) | (0.171) |
partner | 0.038 | 0.277** | -1.062*** |
| (0.109) | (0.115) | (0.192) |
fkid2 | -2.196*** | -1.092*** | -0.176 |
| (0.270) | (0.220) | (0.322) |
fkid4 | -1.434*** | -0.715*** | -0.271 |
| (0.221) | (0.168) | (0.308) |
fkid16 | -0.512*** | -0.085 | 0.156 |
| (0.077) | (0.071) | (0.116) |
ethnic groups | 1.330*** | 1.277*** | 0.589 |
| (0.328) | (0.381) | (0.498) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.189*** | 1.494*** | 0.707*** |
| (0.140) | (0.149) | (0.217) |
part-time employment a year ago | 0.611*** | 2.290*** | 0.287 |
| (0.182) | (0.172) | (0.308) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.254*** | -1.928*** | -1.961*** |
| (0.137) | (0.115) | (0.194) |
constant | -1.233** | -1.391** | -0.287 |
| (0.552) | (0.598) | (0.794) |
number of observations | 7505.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.308 | | |
chi2 | 3047.993 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.
Table 15 Ayrshire MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.933*** | 1.415*** | -0.313 |
| (0.213) | (0.228) | (0.374) |
higher education | 1.649*** | 1.274*** | 0.383 |
| (0.185) | (0.186) | (0.250) |
A-level or equivalent | 1.172*** | 0.984*** | 0.080 |
| (0.137) | (0.143) | (0.178) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 0.970*** | 0.831*** | 0.263 |
| (0.162) | (0.164) | (0.193) |
other qualification | 0.856*** | 0.464*** | 0.177 |
| (0.158) | (0.173) | (0.215) |
long-term illness | -1.519*** | -1.293*** | -0.735*** |
| (0.105) | (0.112) | (0.143) |
age2024 | 0.372 | -0.103 | 0.239 |
| (0.273) | (0.270) | (0.274) |
age2529 | 0.659** | 0.099 | -0.009 |
| (0.276) | (0.272) | (0.299) |
age3034 | 0.325 | -0.060 | -0.528* |
| (0.261) | (0.254) | (0.299) |
age3539 | 0.638** | -0.095 | -0.180 |
| (0.262) | (0.262) | (0.295) |
age40over | -0.134 | -0.535** | -0.709** |
| (0.230) | (0.222) | (0.247) |
female | -0.433*** | 0.493*** | -0.860*** |
| (0.110) | (0.115) | (0.156) |
partner | 0.279** | 0.321** | -0.590*** |
| (0.120) | (0.128) | (0.167) |
fkid2 | -2.126*** | -0.842*** | -0.435 |
| (0.352) | (0.271) | (0.348) |
fkid4 | -1.600*** | -0.841*** | -0.680** |
| (0.221) | (0.192) | (0.319) |
fkid16 | -0.572*** | -0.312*** | 0.005 |
| (0.087) | (0.081) | (0.118) |
ethnic groups | 1.068* | 2.203*** | 1.477 |
| (0.549) | (0.831) | (1.161) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.896*** | 2.019*** | 1.347*** |
| (0.180) | (0.190) | (0.228) |
part-time employment a year ago | 1.043*** | 2.798*** | 0.446 |
| (0.241) | (0.224) | (0.361) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.276*** | -2.163*** | -1.745*** |
| (0.173) | (0.141) | (0.171) |
constant | -2.190*** | -3.909*** | -1.455 |
| (0.719) | (0.954) | (1.215) |
number of observations | 5552.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.343 | | |
chi2 | 2345.931 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.
Table 16 Borders, Dumfries and Galloway MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.255*** | 0.858*** | 0.027 |
| (0.244) | (0.250) | (0.406) |
higher education | 1.156*** | 0.822*** | 0.304 |
| (0.214) | (0.222) | (0.351) |
A-level or equivalent | 0.952*** | 0.742*** | -0.083 |
| (0.174) | (0.181) | (0.276) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 0.583*** | 0.657*** | -0.221 |
| (0.193) | (0.197) | (0.295) |
other qualification | 0.864*** | 0.762*** | 0.304 |
| (0.217) | (0.235) | (0.349) |
long-term illness | -1.936*** | -1.466*** | -1.200*** |
| (0.136) | (0.146) | (0.236) |
age2024 | 0.412 | -0.664* | -0.164 |
| (0.353) | (0.344) | (0.427) |
age2529 | 0.903*** | -0.195 | -0.313 |
| (0.335) | (0.334) | (0.466) |
age3034 | 0.750** | -0.561* | -0.222 |
| (0.334) | (0.326) | (0.438) |
age3539 | 1.072*** | -0.114 | -0.275 |
| (0.324) | (0.318) | (0.419) |
age40over | 0.181 | -0.913*** | -0.719** |
| (0.287) | (0.278) | (0.359) |
female | -0.586*** | 0.364** | -0.883*** |
| (0.142) | (0.148) | (0.234) |
partner | 0.148 | 0.477*** | -0.763*** |
| (0.140) | (0.151) | (0.240) |
fkid2 | -2.238*** | -0.767*** | -1.616** |
| (0.423) | (0.256) | (0.789) |
fkid4 | -1.203*** | -0.522** | -0.370 |
| (0.246) | (0.201) | (0.356) |
fkid16 | -0.312*** | -0.051 | 0.344** |
| (0.112) | (0.097) | (0.142) |
ethnic groups | 0.354 | 2.331* | -0.335 |
| (0.561) | (1.343) | (0.825) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.804*** | 1.891*** | 1.407*** |
| (0.242) | (0.250) | (0.338) |
part-time employment a year ago | 1.031*** | 2.518*** | 0.350 |
| (0.285) | (0.269) | (0.503) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.109*** | -2.143*** | -1.671*** |
| (0.205) | (0.179) | (0.284) |
constant | -0.498 | -2.363* | 0.264 |
| (0.776) | (1.420) | (1.176) |
number of observations | 3786.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.322 | | |
chi2 | 1502.488 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.
Table 17 Dundee and Tayside MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.392*** | 1.004*** | 0.003 |
| (0.193) | (0.198) | (0.298) |
higher education | 1.208*** | 1.039*** | 0.322 |
| (0.171) | (0.179) | (0.251) |
A-level or equivalent | 1.030*** | 0.832*** | 0.114 |
| (0.141) | (0.148) | (0.204) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 1.189*** | 0.839*** | 0.701*** |
| (0.172) | (0.176) | (0.219) |
other qualification | 0.619*** | 0.498*** | 0.123 |
| (0.171) | (0.177) | (0.246) |
long-term illness | -1.366*** | -1.064*** | -0.875*** |
| (0.105) | (0.110) | (0.161) |
age2024 | 1.005*** | -0.003 | 0.422 |
| (0.267) | (0.254) | (0.263) |
age2529 | 1.251*** | -0.107 | 0.019 |
| (0.284) | (0.274) | (0.316) |
age3034 | 1.196*** | -0.104 | 0.069 |
| (0.263) | (0.255) | (0.301) |
age3539 | 1.499*** | 0.228 | 0.067 |
| (0.262) | (0.246) | (0.319) |
age40over | 0.722*** | -0.329 | -0.519** |
| (0.231) | (0.212) | (0.255) |
female | -0.259** | 0.339*** | -0.567*** |
| (0.110) | (0.116) | (0.156) |
partner | 0.334*** | 0.316*** | -0.737*** |
| (0.116) | (0.121) | (0.172) |
fkid2 | -2.175*** | -0.183 | -0.165 |
| (0.370) | (0.288) | (0.340) |
fkid4 | -1.169*** | -0.665*** | -0.202 |
| (0.200) | (0.194) | (0.267) |
fkid16 | -0.360*** | -0.137* | -0.016 |
| (0.084) | (0.082) | (0.130) |
ethnic groups | 0.885** | 1.490*** | 0.674 |
| (0.364) | (0.457) | (0.533) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.484*** | 1.778*** | 0.736*** |
| (0.167) | (0.177) | (0.237) |
part-time employment a year ago | 0.857*** | 2.621*** | 0.326 |
| (0.226) | (0.217) | (0.332) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.493*** | -2.129*** | -1.791*** |
| (0.174) | (0.135) | (0.171) |
constant | -1.756*** | -2.467*** | -1.049 |
| (0.574) | (0.673) | (0.801) |
number of observations | 5915.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.305 | | |
chi2 | 2376.655 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.
Table 18 Edinburgh city region MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.506*** | 1.155*** | 0.041 |
| (0.102) | (0.106) | (0.166) |
higher education | 1.530*** | 1.407*** | 0.196 |
| (0.111) | (0.112) | (0.181) |
A-level or equivalent | 1.094*** | 0.972*** | -0.070 |
| (0.081) | (0.085) | (0.127) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 1.020*** | 0.802*** | 0.342** |
| (0.094) | (0.096) | (0.136) |
other qualification | 0.586*** | 0.588*** | 0.334** |
| (0.097) | (0.102) | (0.141) |
long-term illness | -1.334*** | -1.023*** | -0.822*** |
| (0.060) | (0.063) | (0.098) |
age2024 | 0.099 | -0.449*** | -0.172 |
| (0.143) | (0.138) | (0.155) |
age2529 | 0.738*** | -0.191 | -0.037 |
| (0.151) | (0.146) | (0.178) |
age3034 | 0.651*** | -0.349** | -0.407** |
| (0.148) | (0.144) | (0.186) |
age3539 | 0.643*** | -0.310** | -0.266 |
| (0.147) | (0.142) | (0.187) |
age40over | -0.015 | -0.767*** | -0.986*** |
| (0.129) | (0.124) | (0.160) |
female | -0.281*** | 0.423*** | -0.706*** |
| (0.062) | (0.066) | (0.095) |
partner | 0.480*** | 0.519*** | -0.452*** |
| (0.064) | (0.067) | (0.109) |
fkid2 | -2.093*** | -0.583*** | -0.541*** |
| (0.179) | (0.135) | (0.208) |
fkid4 | -1.034*** | -0.228** | -0.053 |
| (0.117) | (0.097) | (0.155) |
fkid16 | -0.348*** | -0.057 | 0.126* |
| (0.050) | (0.045) | (0.071) |
ethnic groups | 0.947*** | 1.058*** | 0.612** |
| (0.198) | (0.221) | (0.287) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.328*** | 1.652*** | 0.740*** |
| (0.088) | (0.094) | (0.129) |
part-time employment a year ago | 0.378** | 2.265*** | 0.171 |
| (0.116) | (0.108) | (0.179) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.287*** | -2.047*** | -1.918*** |
| (0.090) | (0.074) | (0.109) |
constant | -1.503*** | -1.870*** | -0.031 |
| (0.314) | (0.323) | (0.393) |
number of observations | 18400.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.315 | | |
chi2 | 7433.832 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.
Table 19 Glasgow city region MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.785*** | 1.561*** | 0.048 |
| (0.090) | (0.094) | (0.136) |
higher education | 1.846*** | 1.667*** | 0.421** |
| (0.090) | (0.092) | (0.134) |
A-level or equivalent | 1.139*** | 1.039*** | 0.168** |
| (0.062) | (0.066) | (0.085) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 1.022*** | 0.904*** | 0.399*** |
| (0.073) | (0.076) | (0.095) |
other qualification | 0.688*** | 0.561*** | 0.283*** |
| (0.076) | (0.082) | (0.103) |
long-term illness | -1.812*** | -1.474*** | -1.153*** |
| (0.050) | (0.053) | (0.073) |
age2024 | -0.056 | -0.690*** | -0.419*** |
| (0.113) | (0.111) | (0.118) |
age2529 | 0.277** | -0.560*** | -0.326** |
| (0.117) | (0.117) | (0.132) |
age3034 | 0.729*** | -0.151 | -0.095 |
| (0.116) | (0.114) | (0.134) |
age3539 | 0.541*** | -0.319*** | -0.250* |
| (0.114) | (0.111) | (0.133) |
age40over | 0.015 | -0.709*** | -0.826*** |
| (0.102) | (0.099) | (0.117) |
female | -0.137*** | 0.529*** | -0.790*** |
| (0.051) | (0.055) | (0.073) |
partner | 0.566*** | 0.613*** | -0.488*** |
| (0.053) | (0.057) | (0.079) |
fkid2 | -2.086*** | -0.667*** | -0.658*** |
| (0.145) | (0.111) | (0.181) |
fkid4 | -1.275*** | -0.506*** | -0.726*** |
| (0.100) | (0.085) | (0.163) |
fkid16 | -0.446*** | -0.155*** | -0.015 |
| (0.040) | (0.037) | (0.055) |
ethnic groups | 1.348*** | 1.000*** | 0.744*** |
| (0.122) | (0.130) | (0.164) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.801*** | 2.158*** | 1.091*** |
| (0.078) | (0.082) | (0.103) |
part-time employment a year ago | 0.953*** | 2.833*** | 0.251 |
| (0.111) | (0.104) | (0.176) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.095*** | -1.913*** | -1.647*** |
| (0.076) | (0.064) | (0.079) |
constant | -2.670*** | -2.035*** | -0.365 |
| (0.251) | (0.239) | (0.261) |
number of observations | 27116.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.344 | | |
chi2 | 10882.594 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.
Table 20 Highlands, Moray and Islands MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.234*** | 0.798*** | -0.124 |
| (0.175) | (0.179) | (0.315) |
higher education | 1.129*** | 1.035*** | -0.086 |
| (0.174) | (0.174) | (0.306) |
A-level or equivalent | 0.791*** | 0.507*** | 0.253 |
| (0.135) | (0.139) | (0.206) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 0.382** | 0.310** | -0.061 |
| (0.148) | (0.150) | (0.232) |
other qualification | 0.584*** | 0.468** | 0.460 |
| (0.164) | (0.171) | (0.244) |
long-term illness | -1.475*** | -1.139*** | -0.985*** |
| (0.100) | (0.105) | (0.167) |
age2024 | 0.582** | -0.697** | 0.187 |
| (0.270) | (0.272) | (0.309) |
age2529 | 0.754*** | -0.234 | 0.211 |
| (0.258) | (0.253) | (0.327) |
age3034 | 0.660*** | -0.202 | -0.048 |
| (0.248) | (0.242) | (0.337) |
age3539 | 0.911*** | 0.037 | 0.068 |
| (0.234) | (0.228) | (0.324) |
age40over | 0.238 | -0.540*** | -0.222 |
| (0.209) | (0.200) | (0.267) |
female | -0.301*** | 0.468*** | -0.653*** |
| (0.105) | (0.109) | (0.171) |
partner | 0.047 | 0.146 | -0.699*** |
| (0.114) | (0.120) | (0.176) |
fkid2 | -2.294*** | -1.069*** | -0.531 |
| (0.274) | (0.220) | (0.331) |
fkid4 | -1.418*** | -0.554*** | -0.394 |
| (0.203) | (0.160) | (0.319) |
fkid16 | -0.380*** | -0.096 | 0.130 |
| (0.075) | (0.070) | (0.121) |
ethnic groups | 0.500 | 0.994 | 0.863 |
| (0.605) | (0.667) | (1.047) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.341*** | 1.613*** | 1.324*** |
| (0.149) | (0.158) | (0.209) |
part-time employment a year ago | 0.632*** | 2.432*** | 0.503 |
| (0.182) | (0.172) | (0.301) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.135*** | -2.021*** | -1.331*** |
| (0.147) | (0.128) | (0.183) |
constant | -0.643 | -1.527 | -1.383 |
| (0.728) | (0.780) | (1.186) |
number of observations | 6897.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.300 | | |
chi2 | 2739.573 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.
Table 21 Stirling and Central Scotland MNL model
Explanatory variables | Full-time employment | Part-time employment | Unemployment |
degree or equivalent | 1.615*** | 1.194*** | 0.465 |
| (0.241) | (0.244) | (0.371) |
higher education | 1.881*** | 1.466*** | 0.851** |
| (0.240) | (0.244) | (0.361) |
A-level or equivalent | 1.017*** | 0.792*** | -0.200 |
| (0.163) | (0.170) | (0.253) |
Gcse grades a-c or equivalent | 1.109*** | 0.718*** | 0.344 |
| (0.184) | (0.190) | (0.274) |
other qualification | 1.052*** | 0.617*** | 0.546* |
| (0.207) | (0.226) | (0.298) |
long-term illness | -1.600*** | -1.247*** | -0.894*** |
| (0.121) | (0.129) | (0.200) |
age2024 | 0.825*** | -0.312 | 0.699 |
| (0.316) | (0.314) | (0.358) |
age2529 | 1.236*** | -0.210 | 0.802** |
| (0.316) | (0.311) | (0.381) |
age3034 | 0.942*** | -0.147 | 0.023 |
| (0.309) | (0.296) | (0.410) |
age3539 | 1.063*** | -0.364 | -0.229 |
| (0.299) | (0.296) | (0.407) |
age40over | 0.042 | -1.131*** | -0.726** |
| (0.262) | (0.257) | (0.338) |
female | -0.474*** | 0.441*** | -0.942*** |
| (0.131) | (0.139) | (0.199) |
partner | 0.193 | 0.492*** | -0.931*** |
| (0.135) | (0.147) | (0.222) |
fkid2 | -2.650*** | -0.887*** | -1.504*** |
| (0.383) | (0.292) | (0.551) |
fkid4 | -1.656*** | -0.898*** | -0.365 |
| (0.273) | (0.218) | (0.349) |
fkid16 | -0.492*** | -0.244*** | 0.009 |
| (0.093) | (0.089) | (0.141) |
ethnic groups | 0.390 | 1.242 | -0.804 |
| (0.597) | (0.763) | (0.660) |
full-time employment a year ago | 2.669*** | 1.937*** | 1.152*** |
| (0.219) | (0.228) | (0.296) |
part-time employment a year ago | 0.649** | 2.408*** | 0.970*** |
| (0.262) | (0.244) | (0.355) |
economic inactive a year ago | -3.589*** | -2.566*** | -2.523*** |
| (0.202) | (0.172) | (0.282) |
constant | -1.450* | -2.291** | 0.486 |
| (0.732) | (0.907) | (0.906) |
number of observations | 4352.000 | | |
pseudo R-Square | 0.341 | | |
chi2 | 1775.351 | | |
p | 0.000 | | |
Note: Equation includes year dummies.