Scottish Government

The University of Glasgow
Department of Urban Studies

The University of Reading
Department of Economics

The University of Strathclyde
Department of Economics

Newhaven Research Ltd

Chris Leishman
Kenneth Gibb
Geoff Meen
Tony O'Sullivan
Gillian Young
Yu Chen
Allison Orr
Robert Wright

Scottish Government Social Research
2008

ISBN 978 0 7559 7363 7 (Web only publication)

This document is also available in pdf format (680k)

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

2 SUMMARY OF THE MODELLING APPROACH

3 THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
3.1 Approaches to modelling the housing system
3.2 The structure of the Scottish Model of Housing Supply and Affordability
3.3 Choice of geography

4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS
4.1 Household formation ( HF)
4.2 Inter sub-regional household migration ( MIG)
4.3 The housing market ( HSG)
4.4 The labour market ( LM)
4.5 Tenure choice ( TC)
4.6 The simulation model

5 MODELLING LIMITATIONS AND SCOPE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT

6 CONCLUDING REMARKS

7 REFERENCES

APPENDIX A - SUMMARY OF GEOGRAPHIES

APPENDIX B - SUB-NATIONAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATING LABOUR MARKET STATES

APPENDIX C - SUB-NATIONAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATING WAGES

The views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and
do not necessarily represent those of the Department or Scottish Ministers.