Footnotes
1 UK updated energy and emissions projections ( UEP), The Energy White Paper, BERR Report URN 07/947X (Amended Version), February 2008.
2 Now the responsibility of the Department for Energy and Climate Change ( DECC)
3 Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 - Energy in Scotland, supply and demand ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/0)
4 UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, BERR, July 2008 ( http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/sources/renewables/strategy/page43356.html)
5 Adjusting for both population and GDP would over compensate because the two are linked.
6 Note that electricity generation from renewable sources is included in the overall electricity demand.
7 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
8 Gross consumption is defined as the amount of electricity generated minus net exports and including losses.
9 At present Hunterston power station has permission to operate until 2016, but it could seek an extension to operate to 2021 and beyond. A closure date of 2016 has been assumed for the purpose of these projections.
10 Primary energy has been estimated in line with international convention in which the efficiency of non-fossil thermal sources ( i.e. nuclear, biomass) is taken into account in estimating primary supply. The output from non-thermal electricity sources such as hydro and wind are regarded as primary electricity and are not adjusted for generation efficiency.
11 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
12 The present National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory includes emissions from domestic flights that are attributable to Scotland. However, the Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 covered all aviation emissions and these have been included in Table S3 for completeness. Comparisons with NAEI values are made after excluding aviation. The comparison is made with combustion related emissions since the projections do not include fugitive emissions.
13 The Military aircraft and naval vessels section of the inventory is omitted from these tables. This sector only accounted for 1% of CO 2 emissions in 2005.
14 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
15 The Military aircraft and naval vessels section of the inventory is omitted from these tables. This sector only accounted for 1% of CO 2 emissions in 2005.
16 The present National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory includes emissions from domestic flights that are attributable to Scotland. However, the Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 did cover all aviation emissions and these have been included in Table 15 for completeness. Comparisons with NAEI values are made after excluding aviation.
17 The "High" sensitivity analysis included higher car ownership and air travel, with higher energy demand and CO 2 emissions, and higher fossil fuel power generation limiting the fall in CO 2 emissions relative to 2005.
18 The "Low" sensitivity analysis included lower GDP and population growth, with lower energy demand and CO 2 emissions, and lower fossil fuel power generation leading to further decreases in projected CO 2 emissions relative to 2005.
19 This report refers throughout to BERR/Defra, changes to these departments has resulted in many of the responsibilities previously assigned to these Departments now being the responsibility of the Department of Energy and Climate Change ( DECC).
20 Now a responsibility of the Department of Energy and Climate Change ( DECC).
21 Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 - Energy in Scotland, supply and demand ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/0)
22 Regional energy consumption statistics, and regional electricity generation statistics, BERR ( http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/regional/index.html)
23 This consultation is now with the Department for Energy and Climate Change ( DECC).
24 UK Renewable energy strategy consultation, BERR, July 2008 ( http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/sources/renewables/strategy/page43356.html)
25 Adjusting for both population and GDP would over compensate because the two are linked.
26 EU15 population growth averaged 0.26% per year between 1995 and 2005, but was 0.5% between 2000 and 2005. An intermediate value of 0.4% per year was used for these projections.
27 The government economic strategy, November 2007 ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/202993/0054092.pdf)
28 Strictly the economic activity for Scotland is measured and reported as Gross Value Added ( GVA), which is GDP at basic price (less taxes and subsidies), but for simplicity this is referred to as GDP throughout this report.
29 These estimates were based on the GDP value for Scotland given in the Office of National Statistics regional accounts.
30 There has been a long running GDP growth rate differential between Scotland and the UK. For example, the volume (constant prices) GDP indices for Scotland and the UK show that over the last 30 years (1977-2007) average annual growth in Scotland was 1.9% compared to 2.4% in the UK. Over the period 2002-2006 average annual growth was 2.2% in Scotland compared to 2.7% in UK."
31 Scottish gross consumption is defined as the total amount of electricity generated in Scotland (including autogenerators and companies producing electricity mainly for own use) minus net exports but including losses. ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/11/30090722/50)
32 2005 data for Scottish domestic electricity and gas consumption are taken from BERR's regional consumption statistics http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file43304.pdf, while the values for solid fuel, oil and renewables are extrapolated from 2002.
33 Proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and the Council on the use of energy from renewable sources, COM2008/19, January 2008.
34 Scottish Transport Statistics Number 26, 2007
35 Vehicle Licensing Statistics 2007, Department for Transport ( http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/vehicles/licensing/vehiclelicensingstatistics2007)
36 National Travel Survey 2007, Department for Transport.
37 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
38 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
39 Excluding primary iron and steel a sector not present in Scotland.
40 The values in Table 7 include energy consumption by the Construction Sector that was not covered by the estimates given in the Scottish Energy Study Volume 1. This increases the 2002 energy demand values by 0.2 TWh for electricity, 0.3 TWh for gas and 0.5 TWh for oil products compared to Volume 1.
41 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
42 These percentages were calculated by dividing the estimates of sectoral energy consumption given in the Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 by the corresponding values for the UK taken from the Digest of UK Energy Statistics ( DUKES). This involved combining some of the sectors considered in the Scottish Energy Study to match DUKES.
43 The Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 includes 1.06 TWh of "heat sold". This has not been included in the projections, because the energy used to produce this heat is included in the energy projections for the industry, refineries and power supply sectors.
44 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
45 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
46 Note that electricity generation from renewable sources is included in the overall electricity demand.
47 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
48 Energy Trends, BERR, December 2007 ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/TrendElectricity/LinkBERREnergyTrends)
49 BERR projections are disaggregated to give separate estimates for coal, gas and nuclear generation in England, Scotland and Wales. These projections have been adjusted to take account of life extension of the Hunterston nuclear power station to 2016, which was not anticipated in BERR's projections.
50 Gross consumption is defined as the amount of electricity generated minus net exports and including losses.
51 For completeness the small amount of oil fired generation given in Table 13 is included in the values for natural gas.
52 At present Hunterston power station has permission to operate until 2016, but it could seek an extension to operate to 2021 and beyond. A closure date of 2016 has been assumed for the purpose of these projections.
53 See: http://www.scottishpower.com/PressReleases_1535.htm
http://www.scottishpower.com/PressReleases_1645.htm
54 Gross electricity consumption includes own use at power stations, losses in transmission and distribution, as well as demand by final consumers. In the HC scenario lower fuel prices drive up generation from coal and total generation. Hence own use and losses increase, while final demand increases due to fuel switching.
55 Primary energy has been estimated in line with international convention in which the efficiency of non-fossil thermal sources ( i.e. nuclear, biomass) is taken into account in estimating primary supply. The output from non-thermal electricity sources such as hydro and wind are regarded as primary electricity and are not adjusted for generation efficiency.
56 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
57 Greenhouse gas inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland:1990 - 2005, a report to DEFRA from AEA Technology, (Ref AEAT/ENV/R/2500, August 2007).
58 The present National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory includes emissions from domestic flights that are attributable to Scotland. However, the Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 did cover all aviation emissions and these have been included in Table 15 for completeness. Comparisons with NAEI values are made after excluding aviation. The comparison is made with combustion related emissions since the projections do not include fugitive emissions.
59 The Scottish Energy Study uses data from a wide range of sources, BERR and the NAEI, along with data and analysis specifically collected for the study. One of the main aims of the study was to construct an energy balance, showing energy flowing into Scotland, energy used in Scotland and energy exported by Scotland. To do this some of the reporting conventions used were different from those used in the NAEI. An example is aircraft fuel where there are differences in the reporting methods. For these reasons the Scottish Energy Study and the NAEI datasets cannot always be directly compared - unless adjustments are made to take account of the different reporting methods.
60 The Military aircraft and naval vessels section of the inventory is omitted from these tables. This sector only accounted for 1% of CO 2 emissions in 2005.
61 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
62 UK oil and gas production projections, BERR ( http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/energymarketsoutlook/oil/page41852.html)
63 In some cases the percentage change is obscured by rounding of the energy consumption values to one decimal place.
64 Projections on the population of Scotland, General Register Office for Scotland, October 2008.
( http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/popproj/projected-population-of-scotland-(2006-based)/index.html)
65 . Vehicle Licensing Statistics 2007, Department for Transport ( http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/vehicles/licensing/vehiclelicensingstatistics2007)
66 Scottish Transport Statistics Number 26, 2007
67 Scottish Transport Statistics, Number 25, 2006 ( www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/12/15135954/115)
68 New renewable sources provide 3% of electricity generation in 2002
69 New renewable sources provide 17.3 TWh (34.3%) of electricity generation by 2020.
70 Note the percentages quoted here refer to total generation while Scotland's target for renewable electricity refers to gross consumption. The values given for the CC scenario assumption are consistent with Scotland achieving its target to derive 50% of gross consumption from renewable sources by 2020.
71 Total generation from renewable sources provide 45% of Scotland's gross consumption, short of the 50% target set by the Scottish government.
72 Energy White Paper, May 2007.
73 Energy systems analysis of CCS technology, PRIMES model scenarios, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems, NTUA, Athens, October 2007.
74 Scottish Energy Study Volume 1, 2005
75 Manufacturing industry energy consumption by end use, BERR 2007 ( http://stats.berr.gov.uk/energystats/ecuk4_7.xls)
76 The present National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory includes emissions from domestic flights that are attributable to Scotland. However, the Scottish Energy Study Volume 1 did cover all aviation emissions and these have been included in Table 15 for completeness. Comparisons with NAEI values are made after excluding aviation.
77 The "High" sensitivity analysis included increased car ownership and air travel, causing an increase in energy demand and CO 2 emissions, and increased fossil fuel power generation causing an increase in CO 2 emissions.
78 The "Low" sensitivity analysis included lower GDP and population growth, causing a decrease in demand and CO 2 emissions, and decreased fossil fuel power generation causing a decrease in CO 2 emissions.