3. Relevant changes in the policy landscape
3.1 There are a number of factors that have come into play since the 2006 Teacher Workforce Planning exercise which in effect determined the number of probationers entering the Teacher Induction Scheme in August 2008.
3.2 The Scottish Government's relationship with local authority employers has changed with the advent of the Concordat with CoSLA and the creation of Single Outcome Agreements with all 32 local authorities. The previous regime of dedicated funding streams has been subsumed into the local government settlement.
3.3 Despite falling school rolls, the local government settlement was designed to allow local authorities to maintain teacher numbers at 2007 levels (around 54,900 3). Funding for local government sees an investment of £34.9bn over 2008-11 - an increase of 13.1% across the period. The headroom this will create over time should allow local authorities to make some progress on reducing class sizes and in turn provide more employment opportunities for teachers. It was on this premise that the numbers of students entering PGDE places in August 2007 were calculated, and the consequent number of probationers entering schools in August 2008. The Group recognised however that the difficult economic conditions which have emerged over the last year are placing additional financial pressures on local authority employers.
3.4 Under the terms of the Concordat and Single Outcome Agreements, local authority employers enjoy greater freedoms to deliver outcomes without being constrained by the traditional series of inputs generated by funding streams. These greater freedoms have been sought by local government for many years and are viewed by authorities as a significant benefit. But that freedom, in itself, has the potential to create tensions around the numbers of teachers local authorities believe they need to deliver those outcomes and that could in turn distort the accuracy of the teacher workforce planning model. That suggests that there needs to be a greater degree of understanding of the medium to long term employment intentions of local authorities than has been required in the past. The assumptions built in to the existing planning system need to be reviewed and there is an emerging need for Government and local authority decision makers to introduce more systematic data sharing than has perhaps been the case in the past.
3.5 The shared commitment in the Concordat between the Scottish Government and local government in Scotland to reduce class sizes in P1 - P3 itself has an impact on Teacher Workforce Planning.
3.6 The Teaching unions and associations on the Group ( EIS, SSTA, AHDS and SLS) believed that a greater level of certainty around teacher employment could be provided by the adoption of some form of minimum national staffing standard that would set appropriate numbers of teachers in comparable schools across Scotland. At present councils can reduce the number of teachers required annually either directly, by altering the staffing standard which operates in that council area or indirectly by, for example, cutting time for promoted staff in schools. The teachers' representatives believe that a national staffing formula would provide more precision in workforce planning. However, this proposal did not gain the support of the other partners in the Working Group. Among other considerations, there was a realisation that such centralisation would run counter to the general philosophy that underpins the new relationship between Scottish Government and local government.
The Group considered there was some evidence that it was becoming more difficult for post-probation teachers to find permanent posts. While this will be partly as a result of the identified need to increase supply cover, there was some concern that the most recent national staffing level assumptions did not match local authority workforce levels as closely as has been the case before the change in Scottish/local government relationships.
- Recommendation 1: In the light of the changes in the way that local authorities determine their teacher requirements, there needs to be greater reconciliation between local workforce decision making and the national workforce planning process. Scottish Government and COSLA should put arrangements in place to achieve that. It is recognised however that, given the medium term nature of planning, this will be challenging for many local authorities.
- Recommendation 2: GTCS should be invited to conduct a longitudinal study on a cohort of probationers to obtain a better understanding of employment patterns and behaviours for an extended period beyond probation. Separately, Scottish Government, local authorities and the GTCS should consider how more reliable information about the employment position of post-probation teachers can be gathered on a recurring annual basis.
Current Economic Climate
3.7 Another factor that may be influencing the number of employment opportunities relates to the number of teachers the system anticipates retiring the following year. Teachers commonly retire at any time from age 60 and usually no later than 65. Teachers are required to provide between 4 and 8 weeks' notice to their employers of their intention to retire. Although there is no firm evidence yet that the current economic uncertainty is influencing teachers aged 60 or above to delay their planned retirement, there is a possibility that it may distort past trends.
- Recommendation 3: Research should be commissioned by Scottish Government to establish whether the changing economic climate is altering the retirement intentions of teachers. In the interim, local authorities should where possible assess their understanding of future teacher retirement plans and share that with COSLA and Scottish Government to help inform workforce planning.
Supply
3.8 Although not permanent employment, supply teaching is an important component of the teacher workforce planning system and can offer valuable employment and development opportunities to post-probation teachers.
3.9 The existing system provides for a proportion of teachers being trained to allow for the demand for supply cover when permanent teachers are not in school through absence, illness, CPD etc. The demand for supply cover invariably is highest in the winter months when illness absences generally increase. The number of teachers being trained to ensure adequate supply has doubled since 2004 as local authorities were reporting that they were finding it difficult to source supply cover.
3.10 Many teachers are content to work as supply for a variety of personal reasons. Most local authority employers operate centrally funded "supply pools" where the authority employs teachers to deploy as supply when needs arise. Some authorities however leave the matter to schools themselves particularly in relation to short term unexpected absence. There is some evidence that schools are frequently using retired teachers to fill supply vacancies, to the detriment of post-probation teachers. The Working Group believed that local authorities should be encouraged to provide supply opportunities to post-probation teachers to enhance their future permanent employability prospects and thus keep them in the profession .
- Recommendation 4: Local authority employers should wherever possible use post-probation teachers to fill supply vacancies
- Recommendation 5: Local authorities should consider making more use of permanent supply pools to ensure stable employment opportunities are available to post-probation teachers.
Retiral Schemes
3.11 The Teachers Agreement of 2001 introduced a mechanism for teachers approaching retirement to gradually wind down the days/hours they worked. This has not been widely used across Scotland. In principle, it could free up opportunities for post-probation teachers but in practice, the opportunities would be part time and fall short of the aspirations of most post-probation teachers.
3.12 Nevertheless, the Group believe that there should be a review of the arrangements and conditions for winding down (subject to current Treasury review) to establish whether they could be used to free up more employment for post-probation teachers.
- Recommendation 6: There should be a review of means of early release including teacher winding down arrangements.