Assessing the Economic Impact of Different Bluetongue Virus (BTV) Incursion Scenarios in Scotland: Supplementary technical report for an extra response scenario: 80% vaccine uptake across all Scotland

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ANNEX 1 (c) Within incursion scenario CBA for average values from the epidemiological model

Table 1a: Incursion a (Midge transmission from south in April 2009)

Scenario

BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1a

C2a

C3a

C4a

C6a

C1a

C2a

C3a

C4a

C6a

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

344.52

470.51

426.22

340.74

350.67

334.68

412.57

384.20

333.56

338.69

NPV

203.76

329.75

285.46

199.98

209.91

193.92

271.81

243.44

192.80

197.93

BCR

2.45

3.34

3.03

2.42

2.49

2.38

2.93

2.73

2.37

2.41

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

335.91

414.85

380.85

340.74

350.67

329.60

379.25

356.87

333.56

338.69

NPV

195.15

274.09

240.09

199.98

209.91

188.84

238.49

216.11

192.80

197.93

BCR

2.39

2.95

2.71

2.42

2.49

2.34

2.69

2.54

2.37

2.41

Table 1b: Incursion b (Midge transmission from south in July 2008)

Scenario

BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1b

C2b

C3b

C4b

C6b

C1b

C2b

C3b

C4b

C6b

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

344.52

470.51

426.22

340.74

350.48

334.68

412.57

384.20

333.56

338.50

NPV

203.76

329.75

285.46

199.98

209.90

193.92

271.81

243.44

192.80

197.92

BCR

2.45

3.34

3.03

2.42

2.49

2.38

2.93

2.73

2.37

2.41

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

335.91

414.85

380.85

340.74

350.48

329.60

379.25

356.87

333.56

338.50

NPV

195.15

274.09

240.09

199.98

209.90

188.84

238.49

216.11

192.80

197.92

BCR

2.39

2.95

2.71

2.42

2.49

2.34

2.69

2.54

2.37

2.41

Table 1c: Incursion c (Midge transmission from south in September 2008)

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1c

C2c

C3c

C4c

C6c

C1c

C2c

C3c

C4c

C6c

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

359.10

453.60

417.17

349.80

350.47

341.69

398.90

375.30

337.81

338.48

NPV

218.52

313.03

276.59

209.22

209.89

201.11

258.32

234.72

197.23

197.91

BCR

2.55

3.23

2.97

2.49

2.49

2.43

2.84

2.67

2.40

2.41

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

348.42

408.74

376.92

349.80

350.47

335.77

374.14

352.92

337.81

338.48

NPV

207.84

268.16

236.34

209.22

209.89

195.19

233.57

212.34

197.23

197.91

BCR

2.48

2.91

2.68

2.49

2.49

2.39

2.66

2.51

2.40

2.41

Table 1d: Incursion d (Animal import April 2009)

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1d

C2d

C3d

C4d

C6d

C1d

C2d

C3d

C4d

C6d

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits(£m)

378.94

499.63

491.17

438.87

439.72

354.99

432.31

423.45

391.71

392.57

NPV

238.18

358.86

350.41

298.11

298.96

214.23

291.55

282.69

250.95

251.81

BCR

2.69

3.55

3.49

3.12

3.12

2.52

3.07

3.01

2.78

2.79

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

352.66

428.78

411.88

411.88

393.08

339.41

389.77

375.66

363.54

364.39

NPV

211.90

288.02

271.12

271.12

252.32

198.65

249.01

234.90

222.78

223.63

BCR

2.51

3.05

2.93

2.93

2.79

2.41

2.77

2.67

2.58

2.59

Table 1e: Incursion e (Animal import September 2008)

Scenario

BTV constant at yr 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C6e

C6e

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.93

140.93

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

434.32

385.20

NPV

293.39

244.27

BCR

3.08

2.73

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m) mmillion)

140.93

140.93

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

392.26

361.61

NPV

251.34

220.68

BCR

2.78

2.57

Table 1e: Incursion e (Animal import September 2008)

Scenario

BTV constant at year 2 values in years 3-5

BTV dies out gradually after year 2

C1e

C2e

C3e

C4e

C5e

C1e

C2e

C3e

C4e

C5e

No license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

378.94

478.24

466.49

434.01

414.79

345.48

414.43

401.81

384.91

373.94

NPV

238.18

337.48

325.73

293.25

274.22

204.72

273.67

261.05

244.15

233.37

BCR

2.69

3.40

3.31

3.08

2.95

2.45

2.94

2.85

2.73

2.66

With license for move-to-slaughter

Sum of discounted cost (£m)

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.76

140.58

Sum of discounted benefits (£m)

345.48

417.03

397.48

391.96

375.18

334.28

380.63

363.32

361.32

351.79

NPV

204.72

276.27

256.72

251.20

234.60

193.52

239.87

222.56

220.55

211.21

BCR

2.45

2.96

2.82

2.78

2.67

2.37

2.70

2.58

2.57

2.50

Page updated: Wednesday, October 15, 2008