CHAPTER FOUR CONCLUSIONS
4.1 This report has analysed the findings of a survey of candidates who stood for election to local government but were unsuccessful, and compared it with the Improvement Service's parallel survey of councillors and the wider Scottish population, with the aims of informing the Scottish Government's understanding of both the impacts of reforms introduced following the 2003 elections that were intended to widen access to council membership, and candidates' experiences of standing for election, with a view to informing preparations for future elections and any further policy development in this area as appropriate.
4.2 The report identifies trends regarding:
- The types of people who stand for election, whether there are demographic differences between those who are successfully elected and those who are not, between all candidates and the Scottish population; and between those who stood in 2007 and those who stood in 2003;
- Candidates' motivations for standing and whether there have been changes since 2003; and
- Candidates' experiences of standing for election and likelihood of standing again.
4.3 As noted in the introduction to this report, the measures provided for in the Local Governance (Scotland) Act 2004 form only one 'front' in the drive to widen access to council membership. The report of the Widening Access to Council Membership Progress Group set out action points and headline recommendations for a wide number of bodies and it has not been the place of this report to establish the extent to which these have been pursued and/or implemented. While we have been able to comment on trends emerging from the data gathered in this survey, we have not, therefore, sought to establish causality in how representative local authority candidates are of the wider Scottish population.
Characteristics of unsuccessful candidates and councillors
4.4 An unintended (but obvious) outcome of the introduction of STV and multi-member wards has been the significant drop in the number of candidates who stood for election, which has been attributed to the tactic, principally within the larger parties, of fielding fewer candidates to avoid first preference votes being split among too many candidates. One of the knock on effects of this has been that political parties appear to have (understandably) fielded mostly experienced candidates, rather than 'fresh faces', which has exacerbated the under-representation of women, particularly from ethnic minorities, and certain age groups among candidates.
4.5 The majority of unsuccessful candidates and councillors still match the stereotype of a Scottish councillor. Most are male, middle-aged, married, well-educated and have a relatively high income. The characteristics of councillors are reasonably similar to those of unsuccessful candidates. The main demographic differences are that councillors, compared to unsuccessful candidates, are less likely to have a degree, are more likely to be retired or work part-time, and are even more likely to be aged 55-64. In terms of political experience, councillors are more likely to have served as a councillor in the past.
4.6 There have been some changes in the demographics of unsuccessful candidates since 2003, as females are now even more under-represented among those standing for election, and people aged 55-64 are even more over-represented. Among councillors there is the same proportion of females as in 2003 despite a drop in the proportion females among those standing suggesting a decline in the practice of women choosing or being asked to stand as paper candidates or in 'unwinnable' seats. Women were elected at almost the same rate as men in 2007 (44.9% against 47.5%). This may suggest that, if parties were to select greater numbers of women, women's representation on Scottish councils would increase.
4.7 The 2007 elections did though, see an increased diversity of political views represented on local councils and a greater proportion of new faces among those actually elected compared to previous elections. This can be partly attributed to the provision for a one-off severance payment for long-serving councillors who were willing to stand down in 2007 in the Local Governance (Scotland) Act 2004. This was a factor for 30% of those who retired, however, it should be noted that the introduction of multi-member wards and STV seems to have been a more common (if unintended) cause of councillors standing down.
Motivations for Standing
4.8 The impact of the introduction of an annual salary of £15,452 for councillors is hard to judge. Unsuccessful candidates generally have higher incomes than the wider population, which would suggest it has not been successful. However, this point is arguable as the effect of providing the salary could be seen as making it possible for anybody to be able to afford to stand, with the loss of income from elsewhere being better cushioned that the previous system would have allowed. In addition, the percentage of unemployed unsuccessful candidates has increased since 2003, and 9.5% of both unsuccessful candidates and councillors stated that the pay was one reason they stood, so there does appear to have been some impact.
4.9 Public information encouraging people to stand as candidates seems to have had some effect, although due to the timing of the provision of information coming after many political parties had selected candidates, the most noticeable effect was on the number of Independents standing for election. It may be that the information will have encouraged potential new candidates to start investigating the possibility of standing at the next council elections, but this cannot be ascertained from this survey.
Experience of standing for election
4.10 Of those unsuccessful candidates who attended the count, the majority felt that they were not given enough information about what was going on, and about half felt that the results were not properly explained. Interestingly, this was even more of an issue for more experienced candidates, probably due to the changes in the electoral system.
4.11 Many unsuccessful candidates had stood for election in the past (54%), and the majority stated that they were likely to stand again (60%). The combination of this information and the high percentage of incumbents who were re-elected to their seats (51%) suggest that many of the same people stand at each election.
4.12 Councillors were much more likely than unsuccessful candidates to have previous experience of sitting as an elected member in the past, suggesting that those with more experience have a greater chance of being selected by their parties to stand and elected by voters to serve. However, there was a greater chance of new candidates being elected in 2007 than in 2003 as even more incumbents (76%) were re-elected to their seats in 2003 (Bochel & Denver 2007, p.9). This is largely because of the fewer candidates and the change in system and is unlikely to be repeated at future elections.
4.13 A side-effect of multi-member wards and STV has been the emergence of 'alphabetical' voting. For the 2007 elections, candidates were listed in alphabetical order so, where parties fielded more than one candidate in a ward, voters frequently picked the first person on the list who represented the party for which they wished to vote. This phenomenon was both perceived by respondents to these surveys and demonstrated to be real in modelling undertaken by Bochel & Denver (2007). There are a number of other options for ordering candidates on ballot papers under STV so this problem is likely to be subject to consultation with stakeholders as part of the post Gould arrangements..
Commentary on Initiatives and Legislation to Widen Access to Local Government
4.14 The initiatives intended to increase the diversity of candidates and councillors have had some success in increasing the diversity of political views on Scotland's councils and increasing the proportion of new faces among those actually elected in 2007. They have, however, had limited success in bringing different 'types' of faces to council membership. The policies have not resulted in more proportional representation of women among councillors, and have actually exacerbated the issue of under-representation of women and over-representation of the age group 55-64 among candidates overall.
4.15 The public information campaign and introduction of salaries for councillors appears to have encouraged some candidates and councillors to stand who might not have sought election otherwise. Both were among the recommendations in the report of the Widening Access to Council Membership Progress Group and there may be merit in the lead bodies identified in that report revisiting these where appropriate to ensure that all actions identified are being taken so that they are given time to translate into the intended outcome of a broader range of people standing for election to local government.
4.16 It is also likely that, as experience of the new system and awareness of the new arrangements grows, so analysis of patterns in candidature in future elections should yield more insight into the impact of the reforms.