Scottish Government

Introduction

This publication presents statistics of the numbers of injury road accidents (that is, road accidents in which one or more people are injured or killed) in Scotland which were reported by the police using the "Stats 19" statistical returns (which are described in Annex B). Each accident is classified according to the severity of the injury to the most seriously injured person involved in the accident. Very few, if any, fatal accidents do not become known to the police. However, there could be many non-fatal injury accidents which are not reported by the public to the police, and are therefore not counted in these statistics because the police can only include in their returns details of the accidents of which they are aware.

The Contents page lists the different parts of this publication, which include:

• Summary - shows the main trends in the reported numbers of road accidents and casualties in recent years;
• Commentary - includes descriptions of the trends in the reported numbers of road accidents and casualties, more detailed analyses (of the numbers of accidents, of the statistics about motorists, and of the numbers of casualties) and comparisons of the Scottish figures with some other countries' numbers;
• Casualty Reduction Targets for 2010 - describes progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010;
• Contributory Factors - sets out the main results of the Contributory Factors, which were added to the "Stats 19" specification at the start of 2005;
• Comparison of the police "Stats 19" road casualty figures with some other figures for Scotland - compares the "Stats 19" figures with the numbers of registered deaths and emergency hospital admissions due to road accidents, and provides some other relevant information; and
• Statistical Tables - contains all the detailed tables, many of which are illustrated by charts.

There are also several Annexes, an Index, and information about Scottish Government Road Safety Research reports, Transport Statistics publications, the Transport Statistics Users' Group, the Transport Statistics Web site, and the Scottish Government Statistician Group.

The rest of this Introduction consists of sections on:

1. the status of the statistics;
2. the years covered in the tables;
3. road accident casualty reduction targets for the year 2010: comparisons with the annual averages for 1994-98;
4. estimates of the total volume of road traffic; and
5. changes which were made for this edition.

"Road Accidents Scotland" is one of a series of Transport Statistics publications, most of which focus on particular aspects of transport and cover them in depth. The individual publications that comprise the series are described in the section on " Transport Statistics publications" towards the end of this edition. A comprehensive statistical picture of transport activity is described in the compendium "Scottish Transport Statistics" volume, the "Main Transport Trends" bulletin and the "Key Transport Statistics" card. These provide figures on a wide range of topics, including: vehicles licensed, traffic volumes and road accidents; the numbers of passengers on bus, rail, air and ferry services; travel to work, travel to school, household car availability and other key findings from the Scottish Household Survey and the National Travel Survey; and the tonnages carried by road, rail and waterborne freight. "Road Accidents Scotland" provides many detailed analyses of road accident and casualty statistics, including updated versions of the provisional numbers of accidents and casualties in the "Key Road Accident Statistics" bulletin (which was published in June).

1. The status of the statistics

Most of the data used in this publication were extracted from the Road Accidents statistical database at the beginning of October 2007. The statistics given here may differ slightly from those published elsewhere (such as the provisional figures which appeared in " Key Road Accident Statistics", or previous editions' figures for the earlier years) because they were extracted on a different date, and the database may have changed between the two dates (e.g.) due to late returns, or due to late corrections being made to returns which had been received earlier.

The information held in the Scottish Government's Road Accident Statistics database was collected by the police following each accident, and subsequently reported to the Government. The statistics produced from the Scottish Government's database may differ from the figures which the relevant local authorities would provide, because the statistical data held by the Scottish Government do not take account of any changes or corrections that local authorities may have made, for use at local level, to their copies of the statistical information. For example, local authorities may have corrected, in their copies of the data, the information about the location of some accidents, based upon their knowledge of the roads and areas concerned. In some cases, they may have concluded that an accident occurred in a different local authority area from that which was shown in the statistical return which was made to the Scottish Government. Therefore, the numbers of accidents and casualties published here for some local authorities may differ from the figures that the local authorities themselves would quote.

2. The years covered in the tables

Some tables have figures for several individual years (e.g. for each year from 2002 to 2006) so that any trends in the key statistics can be seen. However, the more detailed tables provide figures only in the form of 5-year annual averages (e.g. for the years 2002-2006), and do not give figures for the latest single year. If readers need versions of the detailed tables for single years, they can be provided on request (for which a charge may be made).

Some of the detailed tables in some earlier editions of the publication have not been repeated since. A list of statistics covered in more detail in previous editions can be found at the end of the Index. Readers may request updated versions of such tables (for which a charge may be made).

3. Road accident casualty reduction targets for the year 2010: comparisons with the annual averages for 1994-98

In many of the tables, the latest figures are compared with the annual averages for 1994-98. This is done because, in March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Government and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These new targets were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the next ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. The new targets, which are given in the document "Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone", are based on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994 to 1998. By 2010 it is hoped that there will be, compared with the average for 1994-98:

• a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
• a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
• a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres.

Annual averages for 1994-98 are therefore included in many tables, so that readers can see how the latest figures compare with the "baselines" for these targets.

In addition, the section on the Casualty Reduction Targets for 2010 provides statistics related to these targets, plus a selection of key points. It contains charts and tables for each of the three targets showing the main trends in casualty numbers compared with the 1994-98 baseline averages, and with the numbers that might be expected in each year if the targets were to be achieved by means of a constant percentage reduction in each year.

The previous casualty reduction target, which was adopted by the Government in 1987, was to reduce the number of road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 average level by the year 2000. Tables in " Road Accidents Scotland 2000" showed for which types of casualty this target was achieved.

4. Estimates of the total volume of road traffic

Some tables include figures for the total volume of traffic, or accident or casualty rates calculated from them. The traffic estimates were provided by the Department for Transport (DfT), which produces estimates of the total volume of road traffic for Scotland and for other parts of Great Britain, using methods which are described in Chapter 6 of "Scottish Transport Statistics". These estimates are based on data from a very small cross-section of the roads in Scotland: traffic counts taken at under 800 sites per year plus data from automatic traffic counters at about two dozen sites in Scotland (which are combined with data from similar sites in England and Wales).

DfT's estimates are based on an "urban / rural" classification of roads, not on the "built-up / non built-up" classification of roads used in the traffic estimates which were made up to 2002 (which is still used for the accident and casualty statistics). In general:

• an "urban" road is a road (other than a Motorway) which lies within the boundaries of an urban area which had a population of 10,000 or more in 2001;
• a "built-up" road is one which has a speed limit of 40 m.p.h. or less.

The two classifications may differ markedly in some areas - for example, an area which has only small settlements will have all its traffic classed as being on roads which are "rural" (because all of the settlements' populations are under 10,000), but may have a number of accidents which occur on roads which are classed as "built-up" (because their speed limits are 40 m.p.h. or less). One would get the wrong answer if one were to estimate (e.g.) that area's accident rate for "built-up" roads by dividing its number of accidents on "built-up" roads by its estimated volume of traffic on "urban" roads. Therefore, estimates of "built-up" and "non built-up" accident rates are provided in Table 5 only for Scotland as a whole - and it must be remembered that those estimates may not be precise, because of the difference between the two classifications.

The DfT traffic estimates provide only a rough indication of the likely total volume of traffic in each Council area. The estimated totals for such areas are not National Statistics. For example, DfT believes that its estimates of the volume of traffic on minor roads (i.e. B, C and unclassified roads) for Scotland as a whole are of acceptable quality. However, the 320 or so counts now taken per year at minor road sites across Scotland represent an average of about 10 per local authority per year - clearly too few to be the basis of reliable estimates for individual local authority areas for each year. DfT must therefore estimate the total volume of traffic on minor roads in individual local authority areas in other ways, using assumptions which are described in "Scottish Transport Statistics". The resulting estimates, which are consistent with the overall totals for Scotland as a whole, can only provide a broad indication of the likely total volume of traffic on minor roads in each local authority area. As a result:

• it is not possible for DfT to quantify the possible "margins of error" around them;
• they are not classed as National Statistics;
• more detailed breakdowns of the estimates for individual local authority areas (e.g. separately for B, C and unclassified roads; or for urban roads and rural roads) are not published.

In addition, DfT's estimates of traffic on major roads in each local authority area are also not classed as National Statistics. They too are not based on much data: as manual traffic counts are taken on a "rotating census" basis, there may be several years between successive counts at a particular site. Therefore, DfT notes that there could be some large errors in its traffic estimates for the major roads in some of the smaller local authority areas. Similar considerations apply to DfT's estimates of the total volume of traffic on all roads in each area, which are produced by adding together its estimates of traffic on major roads and on minor roads.

In conclusion: DfT provides its estimates of the volume of traffic in each local authority area as the best that it can produce from the limited amount of data available to it - rough indications of the likely volume of traffic in each area, for use with caution, as no better estimates are available.

5. The changes made in this edition

The main change in this edition is the use of new (to Transport Statistics) software to produce many of the tables. The advantage of using this software is that it produces the PDF and Excel versions of the tables automatically: there is no need to spend time cutting-and-pasting numbers from computer output into publication tables. The disadvantage of using the new software is that the tables may not be as well laid out as those whose production involves much greater manual input. As a result, this edition contains a mixture of tables with contrasting appearances. However, the staff time which will be saved in the longer-term should permit an increase in the range of statistics made available by the branch.

The other changes made include

• The article on the comparison of the police "Stats 19" road casualty figures has been expanded, to refer to some recent findings and to provide the numbers obtained from different sources;
• Table 41(b) and associated charts have been incorporated into Annex H.
• Table 42 has had a column for "killed" added, to give a series of road deaths by police force area.
• A new annex I, which lists the Scottish Parliamentary Questions that have been asked over a twelve-month period.
• The charts from from the Summary and Commentary sections have been re-ordered and re-numbered, and some charts which were similar to some other charts have been dropped, to reduce the number of pages required.
• Some of the less informative charts which accompanied some of the tables have been dropped, again to reduce the number of pages.