Scottish Government

6. Changes in reconviction rates over time

6.1 The analysis in this section compares two-year reconviction rates for the 2003-04 cohort of offenders with those for the corresponding cohorts from 1995-96 onwards. When considering trends over time in reconviction rates, it should be borne in mind that these will be affected by changes in criminal justice policy and practice. For example, the increased use of alternatives to prosecution such as fiscal fines in the last 10-15 years will, other things being equal, tend to reduce reconviction rates; while increases in police clear up rates may act to increase reconviction rates. In addition, this analysis is based on unadjusted reconviction rates. It is important to note that reconviction rates may also be affected by the characteristics of each cohort group ( e.g. age, sex, index crime, index disposal etc).

6.2 Table 12 shows that the overall reconviction rate has, apart from a slight dip for the 1997-98 to 1999-00 cohorts, been relatively stable at around 44 to 45 per cent. A slight decrease in the reconviction rate for offenders ages under 21 was generally offset by slight increases in the rates for older offenders. The reconviction rate for males in previous cohorts was generally similar to the 46 per cent recorded for the 2003-04 cohort. The reconviction rate for females increased from the 33 per cent recorded for the 1995-96 cohort to 38 per cent for the 2003-04 cohort, mainly reflecting increases in the rates for offenders ages between 21 and 30.

6.3 For those with an index disposal of community service, the reconviction rate fell from 49 per cent for the 1995-96 cohort to 39 per cent for the 2003-04 cohort (Table 13). The corresponding rates for custodial index disposals dropped slightly from 65 to 64 per cent with a slightly larger drop for probationary index disposals from 64 to 61 per cent.

6.4 Table 13 also shows that the two year reconviction rate for those offenders with an index crime of violence decreased from 38 per cent in the 1995-96 cohort to 34 per cent in the 1998-99 and 1999-00 cohorts and rose slightly to 37 per cent in the 2003-04 cohort. The corresponding rates for breach of the peace fell by 3 percentage points between the 1995-96 and 2003-04 cohorts whilst the rate for drug offences increased slightly from 40 to 42 per cent across the period. The rate for those offenders with an index crime of dishonesty has also increased from 49 per cent in the 1995-96 cohort to 57 per cent in the 2003-04 cohort.

Table 12: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995-96 to 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by sex and age

Table 13: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995-96 to 2003-04
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by index disposal and crime