Scottish Government

PART THREE LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

Rural Scotland - its people, places, communities and cultures - stands at an important and interesting point in its evolution.

7: RURAL SCOTLAND FUTURES

OUR MAIN AIMS:

• To explore possible, plausible 'futures' for rural Scotland and the key factors influencing them, as an aid to policy development and prioritisation of actions; To work towards a shared vision and agenda, to promote collaboration and complementarity of activity and achievement of key rural outcomes;
• To stimulate consideration of the potential role of futures work in rural policy development.

7.1 Progress has been, and continues to be, made in the physical, cultural, environmental and social development of rural Scotland. The illustrations, innovations and ideas that have been put into action to match past and continuing challenges and opportunities for and within rural Scotland demonstrate the capacity of stakeholders to develop successful responses to changing circumstances.

7.2 But the world continues to change, quickly and in complex ways. Rural Scotland is not immune from many of the significant drivers of change, which may impact on individuals, neighbourhoods, communities and society in general. Standing still, the status quo, is not an option and our responses to future challenges and opportunities need to be agile, innovative and robust. The future is by definition uncertain and policy makers and stakeholders have the difficult task of working collaboratively and with a genuine sense of shared purpose to develop policies, plans and strategies that will respond to continuous change during periods of considerable transition and transformation.

7.3 Scotland has, through a number of initiatives, been developing a number of possible futures and scenarios for the next 15 to 20 years. The Scottish Parliament, for example, has created the Scottish Futures Forum to highlight the power of futures thinking: and the Executive and other bodies use futures work in developing their own thinking, policies and plans. In preparing this document some of the associated techniques have been used in discussion with stakeholders in a short, light-touch project to scope templates for future scenario development. Whilst falling short of full scenario planning, this has supported early critical thinking. These innovations in policy making and strategic thinking enable better insights into possible, plausible shapes of a range of futures for rural Scotland. All have agreed that futures work can input to subsequent decision-making to help rural Scotland consider and manage change - some of which will have potentially positive impacts, some of which will be extremely challenging.

7.4 This document represents not only a prudent stocktake and review of present and emerging policies and strategies affecting rural Scotland but, of equal importance, is intended to stimulate discussion and debate about future direction and aspirations for rural Scotland. The challenges set out here arise from a process of engagement with a range of stakeholder leaders from a range of rural fields. They reflect the most significant challenges that the stakeholders have agreed will confront rural Scotland over the next ten to fifteen years. A formal report of the project is available. It is intended to publish the report shortly but much of the material here is drawn from that.

7.5 Discussions during the project generated a high degree of consensus on the most significant drivers of change in the years ahead. The outputs from the project do not predict any single future or elect for a particular future or vision for rural Scotland - further, more detailed data and consideration are required. Nor is the implication of a single, 'one size fits all' vision or approach. The work is however an early collaborative contribution to an iterative process of debate and decision-forming about rural Scotland's future.

7.6 (a) highlights the significant change factors that the Rural Stakeholder Group agreed carry both the highest levels of uncertainty (in respect of how these factors may individually play out in the future) and the highest degree of impact (in terms of the relevance each has for the future of rural Scotland);

(b) sets out for further debate initial consideration of a number of components that should be considered in the development of any potential aspiration or vision for rural Scotland;

(c) presents a number of high level templates for possible future scenario development as initial, tentative pictures of plausible futures. The templates illustrate the variations in outcomes from global and national change drivers impacting on Scotland, and rural Scotland in particular. These are however only one set of pictures that may transpire as a result of the interplay between change variables considered significant by the stakeholders towards 2021.

Significant Change Factors Towards 2021

7.7 A range of change variables were agreed by stakeholders as presenting the highest levels of both uncertainty and impact towards 2021. Whilst other change dynamics will be evident over that period, these factors - individually and more importantly as they connect with each other - are agreed to be those of greatest concern to policy makers, stakeholders and decision formers for rural Scotland. They are:

• the relative success and structure of rural Scotland's economy and its contribution to the national economy;
• the shape of Scotland's rural economy (economies);
• the agreed sense of purpose for, and clarity of role of, rural Scotland;
• demographics (population change);
• the approach to rural development and rural policy making in Scotland;
• the national response to climate change and resource use.

7.8 Other significant change variables that will require to be considered in future policy making and strategic thinking would include, for example:

• energy forms, distribution channels, generation and security of supply, costs and renewables;
• the availability of affordable housing;
• the strength, diversity, affordability, accessibility and sustainability of services - especially public services and within that emergency, trauma and care services;
• public attitudes and choices relating to rurality;
• sustainable transport systems development and costs.

Progress has been, and continues to be, made in the physical, cultural, environmental and social development of rural Scotland.

Pictures of Plausible Futures

7.9 Future-oriented scenarios are not predictions of the future despite what may be implied in some of the individual scenario template quadrants. Equally, no value judgements are implied in any of the templates as, for example, most or least 'desirable' or 'achievable' scenarios. The templates can be used to consider more fully the nature and shape of, and challenges for, rural Scotland and are presented to prompt further discussion and debate. They represent the 'headlines' of a number of plausible futures developed in discussion with stakeholders.

7.10 Care is needed not to over-interpret the templates. They require deeper discussion and fuller stories and narrative to expand on what each may look like as a possible future.

7.11 Three primary scenario templates for 2021 developed from the project are presented below as diagrams 1 to 3. The two axes in each diagram reflect what were agreed by participants as the most significant change factors facing rural Scotland. Various combinations of how these factors may 'play out' against each other, where possible with the introduction of other change drivers, are described after the respective diagrams.

ROLE CLARITY AND PURPOSE AGREED FOR RURAL SCOTLAND

Diagram 1
This template arises from the interplay of "the shape and nature of the Scottish rural economy within the overall national economy" and "the role clarity and 'purpose' of rural Scotland".
For the first of these significant change drivers, the extremes of the relevant axis move from, at the right, a smart successful rural economy in 2021 which is diversified, highly interconnected internally and across many external markets to, at the left, a poor, marginalised economy reliant possibly on failing primary industry and significant public sector interventions.
The vertical axis reflects the extent to which rural Scotland and all of its diverse elements have been able to develop and agree with the 'rest of Scotland' a clear role and meaningful purpose. At one extreme there exists a genuinely and mutually accepted sense of place within Scotland for its rural communities, with rurality providing a significant contribution to the viability of Scottish life and economy. At the other is a rural Scotland that has been defined by others outside the rural communities and for ends that do not meet rural Scotland's needs.

RURAL ECONOMY SHAPE

Diagram 2
Once again we have an axis that represents the shape and nature of the rural economy of Scotland. At one extreme it reflects a successful, high wage, sustainable growth pattern and has a significantly robust and diversified skills base. At the other it is low skilled, low waged and has very little diversification of products or service outputs and is poorly connected to the national and, particularly, international markets.
The second axis reflects the nature and structure of demographic change in rural Scotland which may also reflect demographic changes elsewhere in Scotland. At one extreme we have a situation of a developing, integrated and balanced population in terms of age, ethnicities and flows of in-migration and emigration, a rural Scotland with strong social cohesion. On the other hand there is a situation in 2021 of a considerably aged and ageing population to which it is becoming difficult to sustain services (particularly acute public services) and a rural society with significant levels of resistance to in-migration and a prevailing 'nimbyism'.

APPROACH TO RURAL DEVELOPMENT AND POLICY MAKING IN SCOTLAND

Diagram 3
This scenario template uses axes that reflect responses to climate change and key players' approach to rural policy development to set out four plausible futures.
The first axis represents Scotland's response to climate change and resource use towards 2021. At one extreme is a genuinely sustainable approach to resource use and economic, societal and environmental development - essentially 'sustainable development for real'. At the other is the opposite, a race for growth at all costs with particularly disproportionate resource abuse of rural Scotland.
The second axis represents the overall approach by government and other critical stakeholders, many urban-based or focused, to how rural development is considered, planned and enacted. At one extreme there is a transparently genuine and collaborative approach to rural development, rural policy leading to thriving rural communities across rural Scotland, in both remote and accessible rural areas. At the other extreme rural Scotland is essentially perceived as, at best, an afterthought by those more interested in the survival and growth of urban or conurbation Scotland or, at worst, as a rich resource pool to be plundered. It would be difficult to foresee any public policy or delivery agencies or other stakeholder interests or bodies explicitly declaring such intents. Regrettably, history has illustrated where the effects and impacts of their plans and actions have however produced such outcomes through lack of collaboration and integration and the pursuit of a single focus on their own organisation's objectives.

7.12 A fuller set of scenarios, or possibly a scenario that represents a unifying consensual and aspirational vision for rural Scotland, is needed to allow deeper consideration of the complex and intrinsically interlinked changes ahead. The templates, however tentative, could be used at this point to ask some preliminary questions. These could include:

• to what extent are stakeholders ready now for any of the diverse range of plausible scenario headlines?
• what should be considered as sustainable and robust actions over the next few months given this range of multiple possible futures?
• which current plans and strategies may make it more difficult to face challenges and embrace opportunities in the future or could perhaps unwittingly make rural Scotland and its constituent communities and economies less able to thrive in these futures?
• what are we doing now that we should do more of or should be enhanced, for us to be able to achieve the more favourable futures or desirable aspects within these plausible futures?
• what new actions, ideas and innovations should we be considering now given some of the messages coming from this futures-focused thinking?

7.13 Clearly, other scenario templates could have been, and could still be, developed. Fuller and richer scenario narratives from the possibilities illustrated above may also be useful. There is nonetheless initial consensus amongst participating stakeholders on the most significant change drivers to be considered in more detail. A significant level of agreement exists that it would be productive and mutually beneficial to work more closely together using scenario planning techniques, which may help to reduce and manage uncertainty in forward planning on rural policy.

Rural Scotland is not immune from many of the significant drivers of change, which may impact on individuals, neighbourhoods, communities and society in general.

A Vision for Rural Scotland 2021

7.14 It is possible, however, from the work done so far and based on stakeholders' views, to contrast two potential, extreme outcomes for rural Scotland 2021. At one extreme is an aspirational, arguably idealistic, set of scenario headlines; at the other, a highly unfavourable and undesirable future for rural Scotland. Importantly, the aspirational scenario gained consensus stakeholder support and may provide a foundation for the development of a shared vision statement for rural Scotland.

POSSIBLE ELEMENTS OF A SHARED VISION FOR A THRIVING, SUSTAINABLE AND SUCCESSFUL RURAL SCOTLAND IN 2021

• Clear sense of purpose for rural Scotland and its place in Scotland
• Connectivity and enterprise based economy
• Built on inherent strengths
• Equality of esteem between rural and rest of Scotland
• 'Ethical market stall'
• Holistic and coherent rural/urban partnership
• Benefits from new technologies/business and ICT developments
• An inclusive and diversified rural economy
• Equivalent and equitable access to services (public and market)
• World leader in renewables/new energies
• Managing and controlling waste
• Destination perceived internationally as 'second to none'
• Thriving and empowered
• Increased role for private sector
• Mixed economy
• Innovative and forward looking
• Confident
• Embracing change
• Competitive but embracing sustainable change

POSSIBLE ASPECTS OF AN UNFAVOURABLE OUTCOME FOR RURAL SCOTLAND IN 2021

• 'Retirement Scotland'
• Re-activate land management
• Stagnating economy
• Collapse of economy
• Falling rural GDP
• Public funding falling but still heavily dependent on subventions
• Uncomfortable degeneration
• Rural desert island
• Large scale island depopulation
• 'Done to' by urban areas
• Reactive to metro region and suburbia needs
• Desertification
• Some will stay - the 'resilient few'
• Rural Scotland of 40-50 years ago
• Money spent to prop up a progressively failing rural Scotland
• Rural Scotland becomes a 'resource' to be used by and for others
• Relatively poor economic situation (energy crises prevail)
• Lack of clear voice allows fragmentation and dislocation

Conclusions

7.15 The role for this futures-oriented work is to challenge the thinking of core rural stakeholders, in a more structured and different way than hitherto. The outputs from the short project undertaken as part of the development of this document should aid understanding and consideration of policies and actions to maintain, develop and nurture our rural areas across a different timescale. Discussion and debate should ensure that sustainable and robust future actions and decisions can be considered to optimise the prospects of the diverse components and communities of interest that constitute rural Scotland. The outcomes will be to the continuing advantage of those who rely on, live in and enjoy Scotland's accessible and remote rural areas.

7.16 Choices for the benefit of present and future generations should be informed by this and other futures-focused work. It demonstrates that rural Scotland faces considerable forces and impetus for change - some potentially supportive to current aims and aspirations of stakeholders: some carrying less tangible, but potentially damaging implications. It needs to be more comprehensively understood than currently across government, society and business that all citizens of Scotland, individual and corporate, are stakeholders in a sustainable, successful and naturally better rural Scotland.

7.17 Discussion and debate on futures issues has also reinforced other important issues. Stakeholders are clear that there is no homogenous 'rural Scotland'. That, and the shape, structure and nature of the various components that comprise the rural parts of our nation must also be better understood and reflected in policies and actions. The responsibility for the protection, development (economic and otherwise) and creative use of Scotland's rural areas rests with us all. Understanding and taking account of the underlying dynamics and interdependencies within rural Scotland is as important to the future as recognising the differences and relationships between 'rural' and 'urban' Scotland. Further developmental work on building more comprehensive scenarios will enhance understanding of the dynamics and interplay of these important factors.

7.18 The ways in which different policies and strategies of public, commercial and third sector agencies are interlinked and have cross-impacts, sometimes with less than desirable consequences, also requires significantly better understanding. More importantly these policies, plans and strategies require much better integration to be future-proofed. Greater efforts are required to test existing and future policies, plans and strategies to eliminate where possible sub-optimal and unintended outcomes through more consistent and effective collaborative thinking and practice. Such policies and strategies should also be taken through a range of plausible futures for rural Scotland, developed as creative scenario narratives. It is possible that others' scenarios - for example on possible futures facing Scotland or focused on other rural areas or rural development internationally - can help us to ensure that policies and strategies are robust, adaptive and flexible across a range of possible futures. The tools and techniques exist to help achieve these aims. The will to do so among Scotland's rural stakeholders is also clearly emerging.

7.19 A high level of stakeholder consensus was developed on a number of issues during the futures-focused work. This was particularly noticeable around agreement on the significant change drivers and the foundations or initial components of a possible emerging 'vision' for a future rural Scotland around 2021. Consensus was also evident on the requirement to test existing and further policies and strategies for cross-cutting consequences and impacts.

7.20 A prevailing view throughout has been that rural Scotland, in its diverse forms, offers a very real contribution to, and promise for, the future of the nation. Rural Scotland is a significantly important part of the future sustainable success of the nation and is at a key stage in the interplay and connections of change drivers, many of the implications of which can be considered through the use of futures thinking. Bringing together available and emerging knowledge of rural dynamics, with an appropriate use of strategic tools such as futures thinking, could contribute in a significantly different and powerful way to continuing success and high levels of quality-of-life and well-being. In some ways this has been the case in the past: but it is felt that the potential scale of the rural contribution, and conversely the potential for lost opportunity, are higher than ever. It is possible that this rural contribution may be lost or, perhaps worse, denied. The opportunities available from getting it right in planning for the future for rural Scotland are considerable. The risks inherent in lack of foresight, poor collaboration, integration and wasteful resource use are equally high.

7.21 The progress in rural policy development and continuing examples of success in policy outcomes and service practices referred to elsewhere in this document - notably arising from the public, commercial and third sectors working in constructive partnership - were recognised throughout the futures work. A significant challenge is to be able to move intelligently from this 'stocktake' of progress into a relatively uncertain future.

7.22 This document already sets out a number of challenges for the future. It is prudent, however, to consider priorities and decisions which have been tested against a range of possible, plausible futures that we want to achieve for rural Scotland. Paradoxically, this will contribute both robustness and flexibility to policy development and decision making. The most significant choices from the set of challenges discussed during the futures work are well reflected in the four individual quadrant titles of the scenario template at diagram 1. From a 2021 perspective, the key question will be what happened to the very real potential of and for rural Scotland over the next five, ten or fifteen years:

• Was the potential simply talked about and then squandered?
• Was the potential lost forever?
• Was the potential accessed by urban Scotland and others and robbed from the very real potential for rural communities and their sustainable development?
• Or was the potential comprehensively, sustainably and mutually unlocked for the mutual benefit of Scotland; rural and everyone else?

7.23 The process of developing some early futures-oriented thinking has:

• reinforced the fundamental need to think and act collaboratively; and
• highlighted the need to increase the levels of interconnection between all rural stakeholders and between those working together to maximise the exceptionally productive potential to be derived from both the rural and urban areas of Scotland.

Forward Action

7.24 The futures-oriented work requires to be developed further. This will aid understanding of the dynamics within the variety of circumstances that exist within rural Scotland; and in the interplay between our 'rural' and 'urban' areas. Further scenario development will also enable stimulation of innovations in rural development at thinking and planning stages. Such actions may form the basis of early and more comprehensive collaboration and consensus building between stakeholders in rural Scotland.