Part 6 - The Demand for Scientists in the Future
Data sources
Information in this section has been provided by Futureskills Scotland from its Labour Market Forecasts to 2014.
Main points
The future outlook for science occupations looks positive.
- Total employment for science occupations is expected to grow at a faster rate between 2004 and 2014 than that expected for non-science occupations.
- Growth in the economy, and the need to replace workers who either temporarily or permanently leave the workforce, will both provide a considerable number of job opportunities in science occupations.
Methods used to produce Futureskills Scotland's labour market forecasts
Futureskills Scotland's labour demand projections are prepared by the University of Warwick's Institute for Employment Research ( IER) in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics ( CE). IER and CE produce an economic model called the Local Economy Forecasting Model ( LEFM). The model is based on detailed information about how important aspects of the economy - such as output and employment - relate to each other and have changed over time. This information is then broken down separately for different industries, areas and occupations. Using this information, the model makes projections of how the number of jobs will change in the future.
It is important to distinguish between the two types of demand which can result in new job openings occurring. Job openings requiring new employees can arise because of growth in the economy and the need to replace workers who temporarily or permanently leave the workforce.
We call job opportunities arising from growth in the economy expansion demand. Expansion demand is the number of jobs that will arise (or be lost) because of growth (or decline) in any particular industry or occupation.
At the same time, a large number of job opportunities will arise through the need to replace those who leave the labour market either permanently or temporarily. This is referred to as replacement demand. Examples of replacement demand include people who retire and people who temporarily leave their jobs to look after children.
For a fuller description of how the labour market forecasts are produced, a technical report, entitled Labour Market Projections to 2014: Technical Report, is available from the Futureskills Scotland website ( www.futureskillsscotland.org.uk).
The future labour market - the outlook for all of Scotland
There will be considerable demand for employees between 2004 and 2014. During this period, it is anticipated that there will be 969,000 new job openings in Scotland.
- Of these, growth in the economy is projected to provide 50,000 new job opportunities.
- The need to replace workers who leave the workforce is expected to provide 920,000 job openings.
Most of the job opportunities will arise in public and private sector service industries. Similarly, occupations which generally require higher levels of skills and qualifications are expected to dominate total employment in 2014
The demand for scientists in the future
Introduction
This section on the demand for scientists in the future uses the same definition of science occupations as used in the DTI Economics Paper No. 16: Science, Engineering and Technology Skills in the UK. Annex 1 of this report provides a full description of the occupations included in this definition.
Although many employees in science occupations will hold science qualifications, it is not necessarily the case that all workers in these occupations will hold science qualifications. Due to the limitations of labour market forecasts, it is not possible to establish whether the future job opportunities within science occupations will be for individuals with science qualifications. However, the analysis should still prove useful as science occupations are a natural employment opportunity for those with science and related skills.
Total employment to 2014 in science occupations
The overall outlook for science occupations looks positive in the future with employment in science occupations anticipated to grow at a faster rate between 2004 and 2014 than is expected for other occupations (Figure 1).
- Total employment in science occupations is anticipated to rise from 261,000 jobs in 2004 to 292,000 jobs in 2014. This is an increase in total employment of 12%.
- Total employment in other occupations is expected to increase by 1%.
The number of job opportunities in science occupations is consistent with the job opportunities occurring in the economy as a whole - that is, in general there is continued move from lower skilled jobs to higher skilled and professional ones. The projections for the economy as a whole show that professional and associate professional occupations are expected to dominate employment growth. The results for science occupations, however, should be set in the context that the definition of science occupations consists of a high proportion of the total number professional and associate professional jobs.
Figure 1: Historical and projected employment for science and non-science occupations, 1984 to 2014
| 1984 | 1994 | 2004 | 2009 | 2014 |
|---|
Science professionals | 46,000 | 59,000 | 79,000 | 85,000 | 91,000 |
|---|
Health professionals | 15,000 | 20,000 | 25,000 | 27,000 | 31,000 |
|---|
Science and technology associate professionals | 34,000 | 42,000 | 53,000 | 56,000 | 60,000 |
|---|
Health associate professionals | 76,000 | 91,000 | 104,000 | 107,000 | 110,000 |
|---|
All science occupations | 171,000 | 212,000 | 261,000 | 276,000 | 292,000 |
|---|
Non-science occupations | 2,064,000 | 2,157,000 | 2,261,000 | 2,267,000 | 2,280,000 |
|---|
Source: CE/ IER
Total new job openings to 2014 for science occupations
Between 2004 and 2014, it is projected that there will be 119,000 job opportunities requiring new employees in science occupations (Figure 2).
Of these, 31,000 new job openings are expected to arise in science occupations during this period as a result of growth in the economy or expansion demand.
- This is higher than the anticipated 19,000 new job opportunities expected to arise in other occupations.
- The scale of expansion demand is considerable given that science occupations account for just 12% of the total number of jobs in Scotland in 2014. However, it is important to bear in mind the large numbers of professional and associate professional occupations which are included within the definition of science occupations.
The need to replace workers who leave the workforce or retire - replacement demand - will result in 88,000 new job openings in science occupations.
- This is small compared to 831,000 jobs openings expected to occur in non-science occupations as a result of replacement demand.
Figure 2: Total new job openings requiring new employees by occupation, 2004 to 2014
| Base year
(2004) | Expansion demand | Replacement demand | Job openings
(2014) |
|---|
Science professionals | 79,000 | 12,000 | 22,000 | 35,000 |
|---|
Health professionals | 25,000 | 6,000 | 9,000 | 15,000 |
|---|
Science and technology associate professionals | 53,000 | 7,000 | 16,000 | 23,000 |
|---|
Health associate professionals | 104,000 | 5,000 | 41,000 | 46,000 |
|---|
All science occupations | 261,000 | 31,000 | 88,000 | 119,000 |
|---|
Non-science occupations | 2,261,000 | 19,000 | 831,000 | 850,000 |
|---|
Source: CE/ IER
Limitations of labour market forecasting
Labour marketing forecasting uses past trends and data to model what might happen in the future. Projections cannot accurately tell you exactly how many jobs in certain areas, industries or occupations there will be. However, they can provide a broad indication of likely future trends based on what has happened in the past.
Two important facts should be remembered about the projections of the demand for scientists presented here.
- The further into the future we project, the greater the likelihood of inaccuracy.
- Breaking down the projections by industrial, occupational and geographical levels further increases the inaccuracy.
The labour market projections presented here will be unable to say exactly how many scientists will be demanded between 2004 and 2014. The results of the forecasts should be seen as indication of the likely demand for workers in science occupations. Looking at the broad results, the overall future outlook for science occupations is positive with many job opportunities predicted.