Scottish Government

APPENDIX 7 SCENARIOS: ASSESSING SCOTLAND'S RESILIENCE

Three scenarios are proposed below to progressively test resilience and capacity. The method employed will rely on a 'hypothetical' (a directed focus group approach) where a basic scenario is given to the participants. The participants (expert and senior representatives of emergency services and other relevant organisations, where possible category 1 and 2 responders) then discuss the scenario, under the general guidance of 2 moderators. The moderators prompt and channel participants where necessary, record key points and issues and maintain the schedule.

The participants drive the scenario, allowing it to unfold and to evolve over the nominal time period. Interaction between participants is encouraged.

The strengths of this approach are:

1. The expert and local knowledge of participants is utilised
2. Moderator bias is minimised
3. Interactions between participants allows testing of complex, systemic and system-wide issues
4. Participant interaction becomes self- generating and self-sustaining and can identify gaps, overlaps, interstices and system level issues where more directive approaches and approaches with one or only few agencies as participants may not generate the same insights.
5. Scenarios will be tailored in situ to particular workstreams

Introduction (0.5 hours)

1. Background
2. Purpose of the exercise
3. Desired outcomes
4. Running rules
5. Questions and points of clarification

Variables

Some variables will be included as appropriate:

1. Location, remoteness
2. Time of year
3. Vulnerable populations
4. Impacts of emergency services personnel

Scenario 1 (1hour approximately)

An outbreak of a virulent disease (avian influenza/ FMD as appropriate) is diagnosed a week after the first infection. Sufficient numbers off people/animals are affected to use all available hospital and medical capacity. There is no need for quarantine or special measures. All essential services remain operational. Public responses are calm.

This scenario tests arrangements, systems and resources for:

1. Surveillance
2. Medical/Veterinary capacity
3. Maintaining normal services
4. Emergency management arrangements
5. Emergency management coordination arrangements
6. Emergency services, other agencies and emergency management system capacities
7. Legal authority
8. Public reaction,
9. Public information
10. Resource availability

Scenario 2 (1hour approximately)

An outbreak of virulent diseases (avian influenza/ FMD) is diagnosed detected a week after the first infection. Sufficient numbers of people/animals are affected to use and exceed all regional available hospital/veterinary capacity, demand for assistance grows progressively and outstrips hospital capacity. Some workplaces and essential services are disrupted. Support is required from other regions and from the central government. There is significant public concern and restrictions on movement invoked and quarantine considered. All essential services remain operational, but at a reduced level. This situation persists for 4 weeks.

This scenario tests arrangements, systems and resources for:

• Scenario 3 (1hour approximately)

An outbreak of virulent disease (avian influenza/ FMD) is diagnosed detected a week after the first infection. Sufficient numbers of people/animals are affected to use all available hospital/veterinary capacity, demand keeps growing over 12 weeks and outstrips hospital capacity; workplaces and essential services disrupted. Support is required from other regions and from the Scottish government. There is very significant public concern and restrictions on movement are invoked and quarantine also enforced as are special measures for rationed medicines. There are numerous deaths and at any one time 10% of the population are ill. All essential services remain operational, but at a critically reduced level. Outbreak is stabilised after 12 weeks.

This scenario tests arrangements, systems and resources for:

Scenario 3 (1 hour approximately)
Open discussion and general consideration of issues identified