11. Age
11.1 Most of the improvement in the skills of the working age population over the past 20 years has resulted from the 'flow' of increasing the skills level of young people entering the labour market, not from improvements in the skills of the 'stock' of the existing labour force. Although the 'flow' is improving slowly, it is doing so from a low starting point. The clear message from OECD data is that the 'flow' isn't improving fast enough to solve the UK's 'stock' problem; and the message from the demographic data is that the 'flow' will be decreasing in the coming decade (the number of people of working age in Scotland is projected to fall by 7% from 3.18 million in 2004 to 2.96 million in 2031), making the potential 'stock' issue - the need to upskill the existing working age population - even more essential. OECD data is presented on a UK basis but in fact the problem is magnified in Scotland. While the population of Scotland is projected to rise, peaking in 2019 and then slowly decline, the population of the rest of the UK is projected to rise to 2031.
11.2 As part of the Pre Budget Report 2004, HM Treasury announced that there would be a UK review of skills led by Lord Leitch. The subsequent Leitch Review is an independent review which aims to examine the nature of the UK's long-term skills needs and priorities of business and the economy. The Leitch Review's interim report was published on 5th December 2005 and although the focus was on English policy issues, the report does highlight the need to consider changing demography across the UK. The report states that the skills of young people alone will not improve the UK's overall skills profile significantly enough by 2020 because:-
- 70% of the working age population in 2020 have already completed their compulsory education; and
- Half of the working age population in 2020 is already over 25 years old. This is beyond the age when people are likely to participate in the traditional education route from school through to university.
11.3 We also need to consider the impact of the forthcoming Age Discrimination Legislation. It is likely that this will make it more difficult to prioritise particular age groups within policies and for funding without objective justification.
Proposal
We believe that the MA programme should remain an all-age programme to reflect the changing needs of demography and the changing landscape of skills that a workforce needs to deliver economic prosperity.
Specific Questions
23. Do you think MAs should remain an all age programme? YES/NO
24. Please explain the reasons for your answer, if necessary.