Scottish Government

Main Transport Trends

Welcome to the first edition of a new annual statistical bulletin.

It will appear in August instead of "Scottish Transport Statistics", which will now appear in December. Meantime, updated versions of many of the tables from "Scottish Transport Statistics" will be made available, when this bulletin is published, on the Scottish Executive Transport Statistics Web site, at: www.scotland.gov.uk/transtat/stsupdate.

Section 2 provides further information about these developments.

1. Main Points

1.1 The number of new vehicles registered in Scotland fell by 5% to 251,000 in 2005, but was still the fourth highest figure ever recorded. The total number of vehicles on the roads increased by 3% to 2.53 million in 2005, the highest number ever recorded.

1.2 The volume of traffic on Scotland's roads, at 43 billion (thousand million) vehicle kilometres in 2005, was just greater than in any previous year, 0.03% more than in 2004, and 16% more than in 1995. There was however, a fall of 1% in the amount of traffic on A roads to 22 billion vehicle kilometres.

1.3 286 people were killed on Scotland's roads in 2005, 7% fewer than in 2004, and the lowest number for more than 50 years. The provisional number of people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2005 was 2,605, down by 5%, and the lowest figure since records of serious injuries began in 1950. The provisional total number of road casualties for 2005 was 17,798, 4% fewer than in 2004, and the lowest figure since 1952.

1.4 There were 465 million passenger journeys (boardings) on local bus services in Scotland in the 2004-05 financial year, 2% more than in the previous year, and the sixth consecutive annual increase. However, there have been large falls over the longer-term. The 2004-05 figure was 9% below that for 1994-95, and considerably less than the totals of almost 900 million for 1975 and almost 1,700 million for 1960.

1.5 The total number of passenger journeys on ScotRail services in the 2005-06 financial year was 75.1 million, 6.4 million (9%) more than the previous year and 48% more than 10 years earlier. Rail passenger numbers are at the highest level for more than 40 years.

1.6 There were 23.8 million air terminal passengers in 2005, about 1.2 million (5%) more than in the previous year, and the highest level ever recorded.

1.7 In 2005, 65% of people aged 17 or over had a full driving licence: 77% of men compared to 56% of women. In recent years, the percentage for men has been fairly constant, whereas the percentage of women has increased.

1.8 Over two-thirds of commuters said that they travelled to work by car or van in 2005 (60% as a driver and 8% as a passenger), 13% walked, 12% went by bus, 4% took a train, 2% cycled and 2% used other modes of transport. In recent years, it appears that the percentage driving to work has risen, and the percentages getting a lift or walking have fallen.

1.9 In 2005, 53% of pupils walked to school, 24% went by bus, 21% by car, 1% cycled, 1% went by rail and 2% used other means of transport. In recent years, the percentage walking to school has fallen and the percentage going by car has risen.

2. Background

2.1 This bulletin describes some of the main trends shown by the statistics on transport in Scotland and some comparisons with the figures for Great Britain (or, in a few cases, the UK as a whole). The charts show some of the main trends in transport in Scotland since 1975, and in comparison with GB over the past ten years. The tables at the end provide:

• a summary of the trends for each mode of transport in Scotland over the past ten years - Tables S1 and S2;
• some of the main results from the Scottish Household Survey since it started in 1999 - Table S3;
• a comparison of some key figures for Scotland and Great Britain (or, in a few cases, the UK as a whole) - Tables SGB1 to SGB3; and
• a summary of the longer-term trends in passenger and freight transport, traffic estimates and some other vehicle-related statistics, for Scotland, going back to 1960 in some cases - Tables H1 to H4.

The order of the material in the tables and charts is, in general, that of the relevant chapters of "Scottish Transport Statistics". However, in the commentary which follows, the points have been grouped under four broad themes:

• motor vehicles, traffic and road casualties;
• public transport: bus, rail, air and ferry;
• personal travel (e.g. frequency of driving, walking and cycling; travel to work and travel to school);
• freight.

2.2 As stated earlier, "Scottish Transport Statistics" will now appear in December. The reason for the change to its publication date is that, when it was published in August, it could not include several sets of statistics which become available in the Autumn (e.g. a further year's figures for local bus passengers, port traffic and waterborne freight). Therefore, it was decided, following discussion with the Transport and Travel Statistics Advisory Committee in October 2005, that henceforth "Scottish Transport Statistics" should be published in December, so that its figures on such topics would not become out-of-date soon after it was produced. In order that the numbers which traditionally appeared in "Scottish Transport Statistics" would continue to be available to users in August, it was decided

(a) to publish this new bulletin in August, in order to provide a handy printed summary of the main trends which are shown by "Scottish Transport Statistics"; and

(b) to make updated versions of many of the tables from "Scottish Transport Statistics" available on the Scottish Executive Transport Statistics web site when this new bulletin is published (they can be found via www.scotland.gov.uk/transtat/stsupdate).

As a result, users will continue to have access to the main kinds of figures that they used to get from "Scottish Transport Statistics" in August, and (when the printed version appears in December) will benefit from some parts of it not becoming out-of-date as quickly as before.

2.3 As indicated earlier, the purpose of this bulletin is to show some of the main trends in transport in Scotland. In general, these are the trends which appear in the "Summary Transport Statistics" section of "Scottish Transport Statistics", but there are some differences. One person's choice of "main trends" may not be the same as another's. The statistics which appear in this bulletin were chosen because they are (i) available for a run of years; and (ii) among those "Scottish Transport Statistics" figures which are, we believe, referred to most often. Some other types of figures may be added to future editions of this bulletin, but it is not envisaged that it will expand greatly because, at the same time as it is published, many more statistics are made available in the updated versions of "Scottish Transport Statistics" tables on the Web site - so there is no need for this summary bulletin to become a large publication in order to put more information into the public domain.

2.4 The relevant parts of "Scottish Transport Statistics" contain notes on, and definitions of, these statistics, and details of the sources and where further information may be found. The only point which should be mentioned here is that, occasionally, the figures given for Great Britain (or for the UK as a whole) are on a different basis from the figures for Scotland. This is generally because the figures for Scotland that have been published for many years in "Scottish Transport Statistics" are, for historical reasons, on a different basis from that used for the most readily available (or most often quoted) figures for Great Britain (or the UK), and we do not wish to publish here GB/ UK figures which are on a different basis from those normally used, as that could cause confusion. Such differences in the bases of the figures for Scotland and GB/ UK should not prevent their use in a broad comparison of the trends.

3. Motor vehicles, traffic and road casualties

3.1 Motor vehicles

3.1.1 The number of motor vehicles licensed in Scotland in 2005 was over 2.5 million, 3% more than the previous year, 33% higher than the number in 1995 and the highest number ever recorded. Over the longer-term, the number of vehicles licensed has increased from an estimated 0.8 million in 1962 to over 2.5 million in 2005. Figure 1 shows the trends since 1975: there have been increases in almost every year.

Figure 1 Vehicles licensed

3.1.2 There were about 251,000 new vehicle registrations in Scotland in 2005, a fall of 5% over the previous year. However, it was still the fourth highest figure ever recorded, 45% more than in 1995 and almost three times the number (86,000) in 1962. Figure 2 shows that the number of new registrations of vehicles has risen and fallen a number of times during the period since 1975, and that it has been over a quarter of a million per year only in the latest four years.

Figure 2 New registrations of vehicles

3.1.3 In 2005, there were 50 vehicles per 100 population in Scotland compared with 57 in Great Britain. Figure 9 shows that the number of vehicles per head of population has been rising steadily, and it has been consistently lower in Scotland than in Great Britain.

3.1.4 The Scottish Household Survey ( SHS) found that, in 2005, 68% of households had at least one car available for private use - up from 63% in 1999. SHS results also show that 24% of households had two or more cars in 2005, compared with 18% in 1999. Because it is a sample survey the SHS's results are subject to sampling variability, which is likely to be the cause of apparent year-to-year fluctuations in some of the figures.

3.1.5 2004 is the latest year for which one can compare the availability of cars to households in Scotland and GB as a whole, using the results from the combined samples of some GB-wide surveys (such as the National Travel Survey). In 2004, it is estimated that around 69% of households in Scotland had the regular use of a car compared to 74% in Great Britain as a whole. The year-to-year fluctuations in the estimates, and the differences between the results of the Scottish samples of the GB-wide surveys and those of the SHS, are likely to be due to sampling variability.

3.2 The road network

3.2.1 There were about 54,800 kilometres of public road in Scotland in 2005. The trunk road network accounted for 6% of the total. Relative to the size of the population, the length of the road network is greater in Scotland than in Great Britain: in 2005, there were 10.8 kilometres of road per 1,000 population in Scotland compared with only 6.7 kilometres per 1,000 population in Great Britain.

3.3 Road traffic

3.3.1 The estimated total volume of traffic on Scotland's roads in 2005 was about 43 billion (thousand million) vehicle kilometres. This figure was just greater than in any previous year, being only 0.03% more than in 2004. However, it was 16% more than the figure for 1995. The total volume of traffic is at its highest ever level: the estimates show increases in every one of the past ten years apart from 2000, which was affected by the fuel protests. The estimated total for major roads (Motorways and A roads) also shows rises in each of the past ten years apart from 2000 and 2005 (when motorway traffic increased but there was a fall of 1% in the amount of traffic on A roads).

3.3.2 The pattern in Scotland was similar to that for Great Britain as a whole. The total volume of traffic for Great Britain rose by 0.2% between 2004 and 2005, and was 16% higher than ten years earlier, with increases in every year (including a very slight rise in 2000). The estimated total for Major roads (Motorways and A roads) for GB also shows a rise in every year apart from 2000 and 2005, when there were slight falls.

3.3.3 Figure 7 shows the longer-term trends in Scotland. It is estimated that the volume of car traffic on major roads (Motorways and A roads) has more than doubled, from an estimated 9,300 million vehicle kilometres in 1975 to around 22,000 million vehicle kilometres in recent years. Figure 7 shows that the main rise was between 1983 and 1995.

3.3.4 Per head of population, there is less traffic on Motorways, more traffic on A roads, and less traffic on all roads taken together (including B, C and unclassified roads) in Scotland than in Great Britain.

Figure 3 Passenger numbers: local bus and rail

Figure 4 Passenger numbers: rail, air and ferry (selected services)

3.4 Toll bridges

3.4.1 In 2005, around 23.8 million vehicles were estimated to have crossed the Forth Road Bridge (about 65,200 per day), 1% more than the previous year. The Tay Bridge had an estimated 8.9 million vehicles crossing and the Erskine Bridge had 10.0 million. Tolls for the Skye Bridge were removed on 24 December 2004, so figures for the number of crossings are no longer available. The total number of vehicle crossings on all the Forth, Tay and Erskine bridges in 2005 was about 42.7 million, about 3.8 times the 11.3 million in 1971.

3.5 Road casualties

3.5.1 Over the past ten years, the number of casualties injured in road accidents in Scotland has fallen by 20% to 17,798 in 2005. The number of people killed as a result of road accidents in 2005 (286) was 7% fewer than in 2004, and was the lowest figure since current records began more than 50 years ago. 2,605 people were provisionally recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 2005, 5% fewer than in 2004, and the lowest figure since records of serious injuries began in 1950. There was a provisional total of 2,891 people killed or seriously injured in 2005, 5% fewer than in 2004, and the lowest figure since current records began. The provisional total number of casualties injured in road accidents in 2005 was 17,798, the lowest number for more than 50 years. Figure 8 shows that that there have been falls in most years since 1979. Although in some years the drop appeared to be levelling off, over the longer-term the number of casualties injured in road accidents has fallen steadily.

3.5.2 Over the past ten years, the number of people who were killed or seriously injured in road accidents fell more rapidly in Scotland than in Great Britain: compared with 1995, the number in 2005 was 46% lower in Scotland and 35% lower in Great Britain. However, the number of people killed or seriously injured per head of population in 2005 was almost the same in both Scotland and Great Britain (about 0.6 per thousand), because the more rapid fall in Scotland was from a higher starting level.

4. Public transport: bus, rail, air and ferry

4.1 Local bus services

4.1.1 In the 2004-05 financial year there were 465 million passenger journeys on local bus services in Scotland, 2% more than in the previous year, but 9% less than in 1994-95. The increase in passenger numbers in 2004-05 was only the eighth since the current records began in 1975, and the first time since then that there have been increases in six consecutive years. However, over the longer-term, there have been large falls. There were almost 1,700 million passenger journeys on local bus services in 1960. The number had almost halved by 1975. Since then, it has roughly halved again, from 891 million in 1975 to 465 million in 2004-05. There were falls in every year between 1960 and 1999 apart from 1985, 1987 and 1988. Figure 3 shows the trends since 1975; it and Figure 4 show that local bus passenger numbers are significantly higher than those for other modes of public transport .

Figure 5 Freight lifted: road and coastwise shipping

Figure 6 Freight lifted: coastwise shipping, pipelines, inland waterway, rail

4.1.2 Since 1994-95, the fall in the number of passenger journeys on local bus services has been 9% in Scotland. This compares with an increase of 5% for Great Britain over the same period (which is due to an increase in London: the total for GB outwith London fell). However, Figure 10 shows that the usage of local bus services is higher in Scotland than in Great Britain: in 2004-05, 92 journeys were made per head of population in Scotland compared with 79 in Great Britain.

4.2 Rail passenger services

4.2.1 The total number of ScotRail passenger journeys was 75.1 million in the 2005-06 financial year, 6.4 million (9%) more than in the previous year, and 48% more than 10 years earlier. Over the longer-term, the number of rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland (including cross-border journeys) fell from a peak of 73 million in 1964 to a low of 50 million in 1982. Figure 4 shows that, from then until 1996-97, passenger numbers remained between 50 million and 60 million per year. Rail passenger numbers had been rising since 1994-95 and reached almost 65 million in 1999-00, but then fell to just over 61 million in 2002-03, before rising again to almost 73 million in 2004-05. The equivalent figure for 2005-06 was not available at the time of going to press. However, given the increase in ScotRail passenger numbers in 2005-06, it is likely that the total number of passenger journeys originating in Scotland in 2005-06 (when it becomes available) will be around 79-80 million - by 6.7 million the largest number since the current series started in 1960.

4.2.2 The 9% increase in ScotRail passenger numbers between 2004-05 and 2005-06 was more rapid than the 4% rise in rail passengers for Great Britain as a whole. Over the past ten years, passenger numbers also increased more for ScotRail than for GB as a whole. However, the rise in the number of rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland (including those on other operators' services) had not been as rapid, at least up to 2004-05 (the latest year for which such figures are currently available). Figure 11 shows that, per head of population, there are fewer rail passenger journeys originating in Scotland than in Great Britain: 14.4 per head in Scotland in 2004-05, compared with 18.8 per head in Great Britain.

Figure 7 Traffic (vehicle kilometres)

Figure 8 Road accident casualties

4.3 Air passengers

4.3.1 There were about 23.8 million air terminal passengers at airports in Scotland in 2005, the largest number ever recorded: 5% more than in the previous year, and 93% more than in 1995. Figure 4 shows the rise in passenger numbers since 1975. Over the longer-term, the volume of air passenger traffic increased from 1.2 million terminal passengers in 1960 to 23.8 million in 2005, the highest level ever recorded. There have been increases in every year since 1960 apart from 1968, 1974, 1982, 1985 and 1991.

4.3.2 Between 1995 and 2005, the number of air terminal passengers increased by 93% for Scotland and 77% for the UK as a whole. Over the past ten years, the number of passengers per head of population has been higher for Scotland than for the UK.

4.4 Ferry services

4.4.1 In 2005, over 5.9 million passengers were carried on those shipping services within Scotland for which figures are available back to 1973 (i.e. Caledonian MacBrayne, P&O Scottish Ferries / NorthLink Orkney and Shetland, and Orkney Ferries). This was 1% more than in the previous year. Figure 4 shows the long-term trends, which were affected by the reduction in traffic that followed the opening of the Skye Bridge in 1995.

5. Personal travel (e.g. frequency of driving, walking, cycling; travel to work and travel to school)

5.1 Possession of driving licences, and frequency of driving

5.1.1 The Scottish Household Survey ( SHS) found that 65% of people aged 17 or over had a full driving licence in 2005: 77% of men but only 56% of women. Since 1999, the proportion of men who have a driving licence has remained reasonably constant, at around three-quarters, whereas there has been an increase from 52% in 1999 to 56% in 2005 in the percentage of women aged 17+ who have a full driving licence. Because it is a sample survey, the SHS's results are subject to sampling variability, which is likely to be the cause of apparent year-to-year fluctuations in some of the figures.

5.1.2 In 2005, 41% of people aged 17+ said that they drove every day, compared with 44% in 1999. However, the percentages who said that they drove "at least 3 times a week (but not every day)" rose from 8% in 1999 to 12% in 2005, and the percentage who drove "once or twice a week" increased from 4% to 6%.

5.2 Frequency of walking and cycling

5.2.1 The SHS interviewer asks adults (people aged 16 or over) on how many of the previous seven days they walked more than a quarter of a mile (a) in order to go somewhere (i.e. used walking as a means of transport), and (b) for pleasure or to keep fit, including walking a dog. In 2005, 54% said they had walked to go somewhere on at least one of the previous seven days. This figure has fluctuated from year to year, presumably due to sampling variability. However, there was an increase in the percentage who said that they had walked for pleasure, to keep fit or to walk a dog - from 40% in 1999 to 47% in 2005.

5.2.2 Adults are asked similar questions about cycling. In 2005, about 3% said that they had cycled as a means of transport, and around 4% said that they had cycled for pleasure or to keep fit. These percentages are similar to those found in 1999: the apparent year-to-year fluctuations in the intervening period may be due to sampling variability.

5.3 Travel to work and travel to school

5.3.1 In 2005, about two-thirds of commuters said that they travelled to work by car or van (60% as a driver and 8% as a passenger), 13% walked, 12% went by bus, 4% took a train, 2% cycled and 2% used other modes of transport. While there have been year-to-year fluctuations in these figures, presumably due to sampling variability, it appears, since the SHS started in 1999, the percentage driving to work has risen from about 55%, the percentage walking has fallen slightly (from about 14%), and the percentage getting a lift has fallen from about 12%.

5.3.2 The Labour Force Survey ( LFS) shows that the percentage of people travelling to work who do so by car has tended to be slightly lower in Scotland than in Great Britain as a whole, and the percentage using public transport has tended to be slightly higher in Scotland than in Great Britain. According to the LFS, in Autumn 2005, 68% of people travelling to work in Scotland did so by car (compared with 71% for Great Britain) and 16% used public transport (compared with 14% for Great Britain). The year-to-year fluctuations in the estimates, and the differences between the results of the Scottish sample of the LFS and those of the SHS, are likely to be due to sampling variability.

5.3.3 53% of pupils walked to school in 2005, 24% went by bus, 21% by car, 1% cycled, 1% went by rail and 2% used other means of transport. While there have been year-to-year fluctuations in these figures, presumably due to sampling variability, it appears that since the SHS started in 1999 the percentage walking to school has fallen from about 55% and the percentage going by car has risen from about 18%.

Figure 9 Vehicles licensed per 100 population

Figure 10 Passenger numbers per head of population: local bus and rail

Figure 11 Passenger numbers per head of population: rail and air

6. Freight

6.1 Freight lifted - tonnes

6.1.1 Freight lifted by road in Scotland in 2005 was 166 million tonnes. The figures for 2004-05 should not be compared with the statistics for earlier years because there is a break in the series following changes to DfT's survey methodology and processing. Previous years' figures did not show any marked trend: there was little change from year to year in the ten years up to 2003. Over the longer-term, the amount of freight carried by road fluctuated between 1975 and 1987 (see Figure 5), rising to 172 million tonnes per year in 1976 and falling to 128 million tonnes per year in 1986. After 1988, it was more stable, varying between 149 million tonnes (in 1991) and 162 million tonnes (in 1996). The total of 153 million tonnes in 2003 was the third lowest in the period since 1988. Figures 5 and 6 show that, in terms of tonnes lifted, much more freight is carried by road than by any other mode of transport. Per head of population, the amount of freight which is lifted by road is slightly higher in Scotland than in Great Britain.

6.1.2 The volume of rail freight traffic lifted in Scotland fell from 29.8 million tonnes in 1960 to 5.4 million tonnes in 1994-95. Figure 6 shows that since then it has increased in most years, and stood at 10.9 million tonnes in 2004-05.

6.1.3 Coastwise freight traffic lifted in Scotland rose from 24 million tonnes in 1987 to 40 million tonnes in 1998. Since then, the total has fallen to 20 million tonnes in 2003. However, the figures from 2000 are on a different basis from those for earlier years (see Chapter 10 of "Scottish Transport Statistics"). The annual total amount of freight lifted for inland waterways has remained between about 9 and 12 million tonnes since 1982. Figure 6 shows the trends since 1980 (inland waterway) and 1987 (coastwise traffic). Per head of population, the amount of freight which is lifted by coastwise shipping is significantly greater in Scotland than in Great Britain.

6.1.4 The amount of oil carried in Scottish pipelines rose rapidly to 23 million tonnes in 1977, and has fluctuated since then between 21 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes per year. Figure 6 shows the trends since 1975. Per head of population, the amount of freight which is lifted by pipeline is significantly greater in Scotland than in Great Britain.

6.2 Freight moved - tonne-kilometres

6.2.1 Figures 5 and 6 showed that, in terms of tonnes lifted, much more freight is carried by road than by any other mode of transport. However, a different picture can be seen when account is taken of the distance that freight is carried. Table H2(b) shows that, in terms of tonne-kilometres, coastwise shipping accounted for the largest amount of freight moved in most years, with road coming second. (In 2004 the position was reversed. In 2005, the road freight figure fell, but figures for coastwise shipping are not available at present, so no comparison can be made.) Rail and pipeline still move smaller amounts of freight than road. However, they represent a higher proportion of the total for road freight when they are measured in tonne-kilometres, because of the greater distance (on average) for which freight is carried by rail and by pipeline.