Scottish Government

SECTION 3: THE NTS AND ITS CONTEXT

3.1 Outline and objectives of the NTS

The purpose of this section is to provide an overview of the NTS and explain the nature, contents and timescale of the strategy.

The National Transport Strategy ( NTS) was a commitment in the White Paper, Scotland's Transport Future, which was published in June 2004. The White Paper stated that the NTS would:

• Be based on the Scottish Executive's five key transport objectives of growing the economy, protecting the environment and health, promoting social inclusion, promoting integration and promoting safety;
• Cover all modes of transport - for example, roads, public transport, cycling and walking, air and ferries;
• Cover all travellers - for example, it will need to look at the needs of rural and urban areas, concessionary fares and the specific needs of women, people with mobility problems and minority groups;
• Be medium to long-term in nature;
• Provide the context for the Strategic Projects Review that will specify our future infrastructure investment beyond 2012, ² and
• Be based on wide-ranging public consultation.

In accordance with the 2004 White Paper, the NTS Consultation Paper states that the overall aim of the NTS is to promote economic growth, social inclusion, health and protection of our environment through a safe, integrated, effective and efficient transport system.

The high level objectives of the NTS will be to:

• Promote economic growth by building, enhancing, managing and maintaining transport services, infrastructure and networks to maximise their efficiency;
• Promote social inclusion by connecting remote and disadvantaged communities and increasing the accessibility of the transport network;
• Protect our environment and improve health by building and investing in public transport and other types of efficient and sustainable transport which minimise emissions and consumption of resources and energy;
• Improve safety of journeys by reducing accidents and enhancing the personal safety of pedestrians, cyclists, drivers, passengers and staff; and
• Improve integration by making journey planning and ticketing easier and working to ensure smooth connection between different forms of transport.

The NTS will be a high-level strategic document which sets out an achievable long-term vision for transport in Scotland. The overall aim of the NTS is to promote economic growth, social inclusion, health and protection of our environment through a safe, integrated, effective and efficient transport system. The development of the NTS Consultation Paper is a step towards the final NTS. In this Environmental Report the term NTS refers to the NTS Consultation Paper unless otherwise specified.

The NTS will cover approximately a 20-year period, to around 2026. The expected time horizon of the plans and policies included in the NTS to be published later in 2006 is around 10-15 years. This is in line with the timescale expected to be covered by the forthcoming Strategic Projects Review ( SPR), which will determine our future infrastructure investment.

Consultation has formed a central part to the development of the strategy and included a series of consultative events which have covered the following:

• Various themes - the environment, health, economy etc;
• Regions of Scotland; and
• Individual modes of transport.

The consultation paper is subject to a formal written consultation from 20 April 2006 to 13 July 2006 with a view to the final NTS being published later in 2006.

In summary, the key facts relating to the NTS are as follows:

• Name of Responsible Authority
  Scottish Executive
• Title of plan/programme
  National Transport Strategy
• Legislation background
  The NTS is not a legal requirement but was a commitment outlined in Scotland's Transport Future (2004 Transport White Paper).
• Plan subject
  Transport
• Period covered by the plan
  Approximately 20 years
• Frequency of updates
  Approximately every 4 years
• Plan area
  Scotland
• Plan purpose and/or objectives
  The overall aim of the NTS is to promote economic growth, social inclusion, health and protection of our environment through a safe, integrated, effective and efficient transport system.

3.2 Relationship with other plans, programmes, and environmental objectives

This section aims to describe the policy context within which the NTS operates and the constraints and targets that this context imposes on the strategy, including an outline of the relationship of the NTS with other relevant plans and programmes, and how environmental protection objectives have been taken into account in the preparation of the NTS. A broad range of documents have been consulted, including international conventions, EU Directives and policies at the Scottish level. Table 2 details the documents included within the review.

Table 2 - Summary of plans, policies and programmes included within review

Summary of Review

This section provides a summary of the key highlights arising from the review of the documents listed in Table 2 with Appendix A providing a more detailed overview.

There are a number of direct linkages between the NTS and transport related policy at the international and national level. The Scottish Executive has responsibility for most transport policy issues in Scotland, and all these issues - whether delivery is directly by the Executive or by third parties such as regional transport partnerships, local authorities or the private sector - are included in the scope of the NTS. Some issues in transport do remain reserved to the UK Government and are therefore not directly within the scope of the NTS. However, where there is a clear need for the NTS to address such issues, it will do so. In such circumstances Scottish Ministers will seek to influence policy-making at the UK level through the existing mechanisms. The 2004 Transport White Paper - Scotland's Transport Future - is of particular relevance to the NTS in that it included a commitment to develop a strategy of this nature.

The NTS also sits within the context of the EU's common transport policy. Transport policy plays an important role in strengthening the economic and social cohesion of the European union and environmental issues are increasingly integrated in the development of EU transport policies. The European Commission's White Paper European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide sets out a range of proposed measures which cover a range of areas, including sustainable mobility.

In a wider context the NTS is also directly linked to a number of different policy areas, in particular land-use planning. The location of new developments has a direct impact in terms of determining the overall need to travel and where travel is required the available infrastructure largely determines the modes most conducive for travel to/from a particular development. Available planning guidance includes SPP17 which seeks to manage the pattern of new developments in a manner that maximises opportunities for walking, cycling and public transport. With a commitment to support sustainable travel the NTS provides further support to a more integrated land-use pattern which reduces the overall need to travel and, where travel is necessary, encourages the use of more sustainable options.

The NTS is also being developed within the context of a suite of environmentally focused plans and programmes, ranging from the Kyoto Protocol to the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy. Consideration of the objectives for these documents is required to ensure there is continuity between the NTS and wider environmental principles and objectives at the international, European and national level.

3.3 Environmental baseline

The purpose of this section is to provide a broad picture of the environmental factors that are impacted on by transport. There is a severe lack of data in some areas, a gap that the NTS itself and the analytical work that will follow from it will seek to address. The available and relevant information has been presented as succinctly as possible. The view was taken that irrelevant general information should not be included for its own sake.

Climatic factors - Carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases and energy use

Transport accounts for 19% of the total carbon dioxide ( CO₂) emissions which are allocated to Scotland in the Greenhouse Gas Inventories (the total used excludes emissions from land use change and forestry, on the grounds that this gives a better comparison of emissions from energy consumption). Figures on this basis are routinely used in international comparisons. CO₂ emissions by source in Scotland for 1990 to 2002 are shown in Table 3.

Table 3 - Carbon dioxide emissions ((Gg) by source (Scotland) 1990-2002)

Carbon dioxide emissions (Gg) by source: 1990-2002

Source :NETCEN

In terms of the transport sector itself, aviation emissions are excluded due to technical and political difficulties ³ with international aviation. It is estimated that if aviation were included, transport's share of CO₂ emissions would rise to a third. Additionally, there are further complications from the fact that emissions at altitude are thought to be more damaging than those at sea level - a process known as radiative forcing.

Turning to other forms of transport, the breakdown of CO₂ emissions across different transport sectors is shown in Table 4 ⁴. From Table 4 it is evident that road transport is by far the most significant contributor. This is due to both raw traffic levels and the level of emissions per passenger-kilometre across the different modes.

Table 4 - Scottish transport sector CO₂ emissions (Mt CO₂)

CO₂ emissions per passenger-kilometre across modes are illustrated in Figure 1. On average, cars emit about 109 grams of CO₂ per passenger-kilometre, over 40% more than buses (for which the corresponding average is 76) and double the amount per passenger-kilometre for trains (49).

Figure 1 - Carbon Dioxide emissions (grams per passenger-kilometre 2002)

Carbon Dioxide emissions: grams per passenger-kilometre 2002

Source: 2002 National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, Netcen
Note: A short haul flight is one that is less than 500km

These figures are not Scotland specific and will depend to a minor extent on the age profiles of the vehicle types within Scotland. However, as Figure 2 shows there has been relatively small change in CO₂ emissions per vehicle with the introduction of increasingly stricter standards for other emissions.

Figure 2 illustrates European emissions standards introduced for petrol cars. Emissions are indexed such that emissions from a pre-1993 car without a three-way catalyst are equal to 100 for each type of pollutant. As shown in Figure 2, in 1993 exhaust emission limits, (generally referred to as the Euro I standards) were introduced across the European Union for new cars, which resulted in the fitting of advanced emission control techniques, e.g. catalysts. More stringent emission limits have progressively been introduced with the current standards, referred to as Euro IV, beginning on 1st January 2005 and will be fully in force by 1st January 2007.

These emission standards for cars have introduced considerable improvements in emissions of carbon monoxide ( CO), hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen ( NO_x) but have a side effect of producing higher levels of nitrous oxide (N ₂O). Although a greenhouse gas, N ₂O is relatively harmless in itself. N ₂O emissions fell by 40% between 1990 and 2003, but transport's share increased from 2% to 12%. Whilst there has been some improvement in CO₂ emissions in newer cars, the scale of the reduction is much smaller.

Other greenhouse gases include, but are not limited to: methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride and chlorofluorocarbons, none of which have significant transport related emissions.

Figure 2 - Emissions from petrol cars (index - car without three way catalyst: pre 1993 = 100)

Moving on to energy use more generally, Figure 3 shows that road transport accounts for the majority of energy use in the transport sector (71% in 2002), followed by aviation (18%) with water and railways making up the rest (7% and 4 % respectively).

Figure 3 - Transport sectoral energy use

Energy use in Scottish transport is increasing year on year. Between 1992 and 2002, the amount of energy consumed by transport increased by 22%. The largest increase was from air transport with a smaller but significant contribution from additional road usage, particularly haulage. Although there has been significant technological progress in this period, it has not been sufficient to reverse the trend of growing absolute energy demand in transport.

At this stage it is relevant to note that aviation policy is predominantly a reserved matter, although the Scottish Executive works closely with the Department for Transport (DfT) to ensure Scotland is taken into account in policy development. It should also be noted that flights within Scotland form only a very small percentage of the total number of flights within the UK.

The demand for air transport is expected to rise substantially, with a resulting increase in the number of flights, and total capacity of all flights. This increased demand is expected to have significant economic and social benefits but will also have other impacts, particularly in terms of the environmental impact of emissions and noise from flights ⁵, and the new and improved infrastructure required to cope with the increase in air traffic.

The Scottish Executive is committed to extend direct air routes through the Air Route Development Fund ( RDF). Flights supported by the RDF account for under 2% of total commercial aircraft movements within Scotland. The additional impact on emissions is correspondingly low.

Local Air quality - nitrogen dioxide ( NO₂) and particulates ( PM₁₀)
Road transport is a significant contributor to a number of air quality pollutants such as NO_2,PM₁₀ and CO. High concentrations of these pollutants are damaging to human health and ecosystems.

Road transport accounts for about half of all NO₂ emissions in the UK, this contribution is greatly increased in urban areas. The greatest source of PM₁₀ is combustion and transport accounts for around 20% of UK emissions of PM_10. The main outdoor source of CO is currently road transport, in particular petrol fuelled vehicles, which in 2001 accounted for 62% of UK emissions.

However, levels of pollution are falling over time. A new car today produces 20 times less emissions than an equivalent vehicle 20 years ago. Over the last decade emissions of the worst pollutants from road transport have fallen by around 50% despite traffic growth. DfT projections suggest that this trend will continue (see Figure 2).

The health and non-health costs generated by transport-related air pollution in Scotland have not been quantified. More detailed information on the two main transport related pollutants, NO₂ and PM₁₀, follow below.

Nitrogen Dioxide ( NO₂)
NO₂ is toxic by inhalation. Symptoms of poisoning (lung edema) tend to appear several hours after one has inhaled a low but potentially fatal dose. Also, low concentrations (4 ppm) will anesthesize the nose, thus creating a potential for overexposure. Long-term exposure to NO₂ at concentrations above 40-100 µg/m_ causes adverse health effects. The most important source of NO₂ is internal combustion engines .

NO₂ plays a role in atmospheric chemistry, including the formation of tropospheric ozone. There is no real pattern to NO₂ levels across selected Scottish measuring stations. Levels have been broadly constant over time. Central Glasgow has the highest concentrations with significant numbers of instances of hourly means exceeding 200 ug/m ³. Figure 4 illustrates the NO₂ baseline for selected Scottish measuring stations.

Figure 4 - NO₂ baseline for selected Scottish measuring stations

Source: Scottish Environmental Statistics

Particulates ( PM₁₀)
Particulates, also referred to as Particulate Matter ( PM), aerosols or fine particles are tiny particles of solid or liquid suspended in a gas. They range in size from less than 10 nanometres to more than 100 micrometres in diameter. Some aerosols occur naturally, originating from volcanoes, dust storms, forest and grassland fires, living vegetation and sea spray. Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels also generate aerosols. Averaged over the globe, anthropogenic aerosols - those made by human activities -currently account for about 10% of the total amount of aerosols in our atmosphere.

Figure 6 shows particulate levels for selected Scottish measuring stations. Again, highest concentrations are in the centre of Glasgow but levels in Edinburgh are comparable.

Figure 6 - PM₁₀ baseline for selected Scottish measuring stations

Noise and vibration
Noise exposure can have an adverse impact on human health and perceived life quality. Tolerance to noise exposure varies greatly between individuals, but at the community level there is a reasonable correlation between physical measurements of noise and nuisance response. The strategic level effects are difficult to quantify as individuals react differently to different modes of transport and it is difficult to quantify the relationship between the source of noise and the recipients. The area likely to be impacted by traffic noise is calculated by considering the length of the network in each zone and applying a standard impact corridor width (50m is the general suggestion). Average population densities for the area are applied to this area to forecast the number of individuals likely to be exposed to increased or decreased noise levels. The DfT has recently released guidance that deals with a methodology for monetarising the impact of noise effects. This is currently being evaluated for inclusion in Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance ( STAG) and will be incorporated, subject to variations in the legislative framework in Scotland (see section 3.5 for more details on STAG).

There is very little information available on noise levels across Scotland but Table 5, reproduced from the UK noise attitude survey 1999/2000, would appear to indicate that the impact of rail and air modes is significantly lower in Scotland than the rest of the UK and that the impact of road transport is slightly lower. It should be noted that the sample size of the survey in Scotland is relatively small and the results, particularly with reference to road transport, should be treated with some care.

Table 5 - UK Noise Attitude Survey results (1999/2000)

Biodiversity
The development of transport infrastructure has a number of potential effects on biodiversity, including direct damage to important nature conservation sites or the habits of protected species, fragmentation or loss of habitats, creating barriers to the movement and genetic interchange between populations and disturbance of habits due to noise, light pollution and contaminated run-off. There is no direct measurement of transport related impacts on biodiversity, neither in terms of habitat nor species.

Soil
Soil quality is dependent upon biological, chemical and physical interactions. Soils are particularly important in providing a substrate in which plants can flourish, purifying water as well as transforming and recycling wastes and pollutants and providing for biodiversity. Poor management of soils can negatively impact on natural habitats and biodiversity, as well as agriculture, forestry, landscape, cultural heritage and industry.

Water
River basin districts are now the main area for co-ordinating the management of the water environment. They comprise river basins and their associated transitional, coastal and groundwaters. There is one river basin district solely in Scotland (Scotland river basin district) which extends from Shetland to Glasgow, Ayr and Edinburgh. There is also the Solway Tweed river basin district which crosses the border between Scotland and England. In accordance with the EU Water Framework Directive ⁶SEPA published a characterisation report on the Scotland river basin district in March 2005 ⁷. A similar publication was prepared for the Solway Tweed river basin by SEPA and the Environment Agency ⁸. Both characterisation reports identify where the water environment is at risk of being harmed.

The Scotland river basin district covers approximately 113,920km ². Overall 43% of the water bodies within this river basin district are at risk of being harmed - this compares to over 80% of waters in most of Europe than most others in the UK. This is largely a result of morphological alterations, diffuse pollution and point source pollution. While many of the causes arise within the larger population centres and intensively farmed areas, some more remote areas are at risk from pressures such as acid deposition and hydropower schemes. Most of Scotland's river water bodies are of good quality:

• 72% are not affected by pollution
• 73% are not affected by abstractions or dams
• 66% are not affected by engineering works

The Solway Tweed river basin covers approximately 17,500km ². Approximately 56% of water bodies within this river basin district may not meet the environmental objectives of the EU Water Framework Directive. This includes 289 river, 21 lake, 6 transitional, 2 coastal and 16 groundwater bodies. Diffuse pollution and morphological pressures are the main cause, reflecting the rural nature of the area and predominance of agriculture.

Natural heritage
For its size Scotland has the most varied geology and natural landscapes of any country, including rich marine environments and very extensive near natural upland landscapes. The diversity of Scotland's landscape is highly regarded at the UK, European and international level. The natural heritage is of significance for both functional and intrinsic reasons. In functional terms the environment provides a number of resources, including clean air, food and raw materials which are often taken for granted. For intrinsic purposes the environment provides an important sense of place. There is no direct measurement of transport related impacts on the natural heritage, however it is recognised in particular new transport infrastructure has the potential to influence land use and the natural heritage.

Cultural heritage
The historical dimension of the natural environment is an important factor to its overall quality and character. This is most widely recognised through the built heritage, including ancient monuments, archaeological sites, landscapes, historic buildings, townscapes, parks, gardens and also marine heritage. Protection of the historic environment is not about preventing change, but rather about ensuring that any change is responsible in nature.

The Historic Environment Audit is a new project being progressed by Historic Scotland which will provide a regular audit of Scotland's historic environment, including statistics on heritage assets their condition and how well they are being used and looked after. An external Stakeholder Advisory Group, comprising a range of heritage organisations, will oversee the audit and a report on the state of the historic environment will be published in 2007. ⁹

3.4 Environmental problems

Schedule 2 of the Regulations require that the Environmental Report includes a description of existing environmental problems, especially those relating to any areas of particular environmental importance. The purpose of this section is to explain how existing environmental problems will affect or be affected by the NTS and whether the Strategy is likely to aggravate, reduce or otherwise affect existing environmental problems.

The overriding environmental challenge for the NTS is to identify a comprehensive package of policies, balanced across all relevant sectors, which will lead to a transport system that complements the environment.

Environmental problems relevant to the NTS were identified by the review of other plans, policies and programmes and also through discussions with our cross-departmental Steering Group, which was set up to oversee the management of the development of the NTS and to ensure the strategy properly takes into account the needs of the most directly relevant policy areas from across the Executive, including those of an environmental nature. A summary of the problems identified is presented in Table 6.

Table 6 - Environmental problems relevant to the NTS

Summary of Environmental Problems

In terms of the environment, transport has the potential to give rise to significant impacts, both in terms of the physical movement of goods and people and the infrastructure required to enable this. Use of the transport system has a number of implications, particularly in terms of local air quality, climatic factors, noise and the health and well being of the wider population. The development of new infrastructure itself also poses a threat, especially in terms of the natural environment.

From Table 6 it is evident that transport has a significant bearing on the environment, particularly in terms of CO₂ emissions and local air quality. This is unsurprising given that 19% of CO₂ emissions in Scotland are produced by the transport sector. Transport is also a major source of other air pollutants, including CO, NO₂, ozone (O ₃) and PM₁₀ which can harm human health and the wider environment. The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (currently under review) has at its core standards and objectives which local authorities are charged with working towards. If review and assessment work indicates that any objective is unlikely to be met by the required date, the authority concerned must declare an Air Quality Management Area ( AQMA) and draw up an action plan outlining how it intends to tackle the issues identified.

In Scotland there are currently AQMAs in the city centres of Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow. All were originally declared on the basis of transport related NO₂ emissions, with Aberdeen's now also covering transport related PM₁₀. The AQMA in Glasgow is likely to have to include PM₁₀ in the near future as well and there will also be a need for some areas outside the city centre to be declared on the basis of NO₂ emissions. Eight further AQMAs are expected to come into force in 2006, seven of which are transport related. The seven areas include three in North Lanarkshire (Chapelhall, Coatbridge and Motherwell), Renfrewshire (Paisley) and East Dunbartonshire (Bishopbriggs). In the longer-term it is expected that additional AQMAs will be designated in Dundee and Perth.

As highlighted in Table 6 it is also important to take into consideration the impact of transport on all aspects of the natural environment ( e.g. biodiversity, the soil, the landscape), something which this Environmental Report seeks to fulfil in terms of assessing the likely significant environmental effects of the NTS. Another important factor for consideration is the effect of future climate change. Changes over the next 100 years are predicted to bring warmer, wetter winters, less snowfall and an increased risk of flooding. This will impact on the way we travel and on transport infrastructure. There is a need for consideration of appropriate measures to ensure Scotland is prepared for these changes.

3.5 Likely future trends without the NTS

The likely future transport trends without the NTS in place will be considered in detail in the analytical annex to the final NTS. This will be available after the publication of the final NTS later in 2006 and to avoid duplication and inconsistency due to uncompleted work, is not reproduced here.

As well as this analytical work an external firm of consultants has also been appointed to appraise potential policy options. This work will be performed under the broad framework of Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance. Published in 2003, STAG is a document that has been produced to aid transport planners and decision-makers in the development of transport policies, plans, programmes and projects.

The two principles of STAG that are highly relevant to this work are the comparison of options against a Do-Minimum (which can be viewed as the situation without the NTS, or a specific NTS policy, in place) and the assessment of options against the five high level objectives that are broadly shared by both STAG and the NTS:

• Promote economic growth by building, enhancing, managing and maintaining transport services, infrastructure and networks to maximise their efficiency;
• Promote social inclusion by connecting remote and disadvantaged communities and increasing the accessibility of the transport network;
• Protect our environment and improve health by building and investing in public transport and other types of efficient and sustainable transport which minimise emissions and consumption of resources and energy;
• Improve safety of journeys by reducing accidents and enhancing the personal safety of pedestrians, cyclists, drivers, passengers and staff; and
• Improve integration by making journey planning and ticketing easier and working to ensure smooth connection between different forms of transport.

Within STAG the specific environmental objective focuses on Global Air Quality, Local Air quality, Cultural heritage; Landscape; Geological features; Visual amenity; Agriculture and soils; Biodiversity; Water quality, drainage and flood defence; Noise and vibration. For the purposes of appraising potential policy options in the context of the NTS this will be expanded to cover the human health aspects and additionally, as an objective in its own right, social inclusion and accessibility issues will be addressed.

It is strongly anticipated that both the analytical work and policy appraisal, when complete, will more than adequately cover what is required in terms of this section of the SEA. As these pieces of work are currently in progress, they will be reported and published at the appropriate time, with the inclusion of relevant details in the SEA post-adoption statement.