Annex B: Dementia
Unless there are major advances in prevention, the number of people with dementia will double in the next 40 years, and the number of those 85 and over with dementia will treble.
The number of people with dementia in Scotland was around 60,000 in 2001, and is projected to increase to around 82,000 in 2020 and to around 125,000 by 2041 ( Drivers for Change figure C6).
Efforts to improve the health of the population may not stop an increase in the level of dementia in the population. In August 2005 the press reported research by the Medical Research Council, with the findings being published in the Public Library of Science Medicine. It found that levels of dementia were surprisingly constant across England and Wales, and throws into doubt the hope that reducing risk factors for conditions like stroke would lower the risk of dementia.
The study followed 13,000 men and women who were 65 at the start of the study for 15 years. It found:
- no differences between men and women.
- for those 70-79, one in 70 people a year will develop dementia.
- for those over 85, one in 15 people a year will develop dementia.
The study found that there are 163,000 new cases a year (presumably this is England and Wales). The researchers were surprised that the incidence of dementia had been so consistent.