Scottish Government

ISBN 0 7559 5029 1

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Contract QLC 11/1
Commissioned by the Scottish Executive
Produced by The University of Edinburgh

February 2006

Contents

Disclaimer
Acknowledgements
Glossary

1 Introduction
1.1 Context
1.1.1 Scotland's Future Demand for Electricity
1.1.2 Scotland's Renewable Energy Resources
1.1.3 Matching Renewable Electricity Generation with Demand
1.1.4 Electricity Supply Infrastructure
1.2 Report Structure

2 Analysis
2.1 Approach
2.2 Model Outline
2.3 Input Data
2.3.1 Resource Data
2.3.2 Machine Selection
2.3.3 Geographical Information
2.3.4 Natural and Cultural Heritage
2.3.5 Aviation Interests
2.3.6 Land and Sea Use
2.3.7 Power System Data
2.3.8 Financial Parameters

3 Electricity Generation
3.1 Onshore-wind Energy
3.1.1 Resource Characteristics
3.1.2 Resource Assessment
3.1.3 Energy Converter
3.1.4 Generation
3.2 Offshore-wind Energy
3.2.1 Resource Characteristics
3.2.2 Resource Assessment
3.2.3 Energy Converter
3.2.4 Generation
3.3 Wave Energy
3.3.1 Resource Characteristics
3.3.2 Resource Assessment
3.3.3 Energy Converter
3.3.4 Generation
3.4 Tidal-current Energy
3.4.1 Resource Characteristics
3.4.2 Resource Assessment
3.4.3 Energy Converter
3.4.4 Generation

4 Electricity Demand
4.1 Scottish System Demand
4.2 Demand Modelling

5 Energy Delivery Scenarios
5.1 Scenarios Selection
5.1.1 Technology Scenarios
5.1.2 Area Scenarios
5.2 Terminology and Graphs
5.2.1 Generation and Demand Curves
5.2.2 Special Terms

6 Results and Discussion
6.1 Technology Scenarios
6.1.1 Tech 1: Onshore-wind
6.1.2 Tech 2: Offshore-wind
6.1.3 Tech 3: Wave
6.1.4 Tech 4: Tidal-current
6.1.5 Tech 5: Mix with 75% Onshore-wind
6.1.6 Tech 6: Variable Mix
6.2 Area Scenarios
6.2.1 Area 1: Onshore-wind
6.2.2 Area 2: Offshore-wind
6.2.3 Area 3: Wave
6.2.4 Area 4: Tidal-current
6.2.5 Area 5: Mixed Portfolio
6.3 Power System Implications
6.4 Comments and Summary 19

7 Conclusions

References

Appendix
Map 01 Scotland - Political
Map 02 Scotland - Physical
Map 03 Environmental Designations
Map 04 Aviation Interests
Map 05 Development Constraints
Map 06 Onshore-Wind Power Resource
Map 07 Offshore-Wind Power Resource
Map 08 Wave Power Resource
Map 09 Tidal-Current Power Resource
Map 10 Technology Scenarios
Map 11 Area Scenarios