19 in 2005 - Scotland's Young People: Findings from the Scottish School Leavers Survey

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4 THE FUTURE

As well as examining expectations for the future this chapter explores views on how much control young people feel they have over their lives.

4.1 Expectations of main activity in one year's time

Respondents were asked what they thought their main activity would be in one year's time, i.e. in spring 2006. Half (49%) thought they would be in full-time education and four in ten thought they would be in full-time employment. Three percent said they would probably be on a Government Training Programme ( GTP) and 4% thought they would either be doing something else or a combination of activities.

Females were more likely than males to think they would be in full-time education (53% compared with 45%), whereas males were slightly more likely to think they would be in full-time employment (45% compared with 34% among females). Females were also more likely to think they might be looking after children, the family or the home in a year's time.

Table 4-1 Expected activity in one year's time by gender

All respondents

Male

Female

Total

Expected activity:

%

%

%

Out of work

1

1

1

Full-time job

45

34

40

Part-time job

2

2

2

Full-time education

45

53

49

Government training programme

4

1

3

Looking after child/family/home

0

2

1

Travelling/ working abroad

0

1

0

Doing something else, or a combination of activities

3

6

4

Bases (weighted)

1613

1577

3190

Bases (unweighted)

1336

1863

3199

Respondents were also asked what they thought they would be doing in one year's time when they were first surveyed in 2003. The table below compares hopes for the future in 2003 with hopes for the future in 2005. In 2003 respondents were aged 16/17 and most expected to be in either full-time education (53%) or have a full-time job (25%) in spring 2004 when they would be 17/18. Since then there has been a significant increase in the proportion expecting to be in a full-time job (40% compared with 25%), coupled with a drop in the proportion anticipating that they will be in a full-time education in 2006 (53% in 2003 compared with 49% in 2005).

Table 4-2 Expected activity in one year's time: 2003 and 2005

All respondents

2003

2005

Expected activity:

%

%

Out of work

2

1

Full-time job

25

40

Part-time job

1

2

Full-time education

53

49

Government training programme

10

3

Looking after child/family/home

0

1

Travelling/ working abroad

1

0

Other/ combination of activities

6

4

Bases (weighted)

5034

3192

Bases (unweighted)

5045

3199

When compared with previous cohorts the proportion of 19 year-olds expecting to be in education has increased slightly over the years. In 1999 42% expected to be in full-time education; this increased to 45% in 2001 and 49% in 2005 and was coupled with a decline, albeit small, in the proportion expecting to be in a full-time job.

Table 4-3 Expected activity in one year's time by gender

All respondents

19 in 1999

19 in 2001

19 in 2005

Expected activity:

%

%

%

Out of work

1

1

1

Full-time job

44

44

40

Part-time job

3

2

2

Full-time education

42

45

49

Government training programme

1

1

3

Looking after child/family/home

2

1

1

Travelling/ working abroad

1

0

0

Other/ combination of activities

6

6

4

Don't know

-

1

-

Bases (weighted)

2468

5003

3192

Bases (unweighted)

2479

5013

3199

The majority (77%) of those in employment at the time of the survey still anticipated being in work a year later, while around one in five (17%) of this group expected to have moved from employment into education. A majority of those on a GTP and those out of work thought they would have moved into work (97% and 63% respectively). Six percent of those out of work still expected to be so in one year's time. Of those in full-time education, around one in ten (11%) anticipated that they would still be in education in a year's time, while the majority (86%) expected to have moved into employment.

Table 4-4 Expected activity in one year's time by activity status

Current main activity

Total

Expected activity in one year's time

Full-time job

GTP

Part-time work

Out of work

Full-time education

Looking after home/ family

Other

Expected activity:

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Out of work

0

-

-

6

0

-

-

1

In work

77

97

57

63

11

24

30

44

In education

17

0

36

19

86

10

48

49

Looking after child/family/home

1

-

0

4

0

43

-

1

Doing something else inc travelling/working abroad

6

3

7

8

2

24

22

5

Bases (weighted)

833

278

254

270

1443

51

46

3175

Bases (unweighted)

699

204

244

150

1799

38

51

3185

There is also evidence of a relationship between respondents' expectations and their parents' social class. Those from manual social class backgrounds were around three times as likely as those from professional backgrounds to expect to be in work in spring 2006 (60% of those with parents in lower supervisory and technical compared with 17% of those with parents in higher managerial and professional occupations), while those from higher managerial and professional social class backgrounds were more than twice as likely to think they would be in education in spring 2006 as those from routine and semi-routine background (80% and 34% respectively).

Table 4-5 Expected activity in one year's time by social class of respondents' parents

Social class of parentsTotal
Expected activity in one year's timeHigher managerial & professionalLower professional & managerial/ higher technical & supervisoryIntermediate occupations & self-employedLower supervisory & technicalRoutine & semi-routine

Expected activity:

%

%

%

%

%

%

Out of work

-

-

1

-

1

0

In work

17

36

51

60

57

44

In education

80

59

44

34

34

50

Looking after child/family/home

-

1

1

2

2

1

Doing something else inc travelling/working abroad

3

5

4

5

7

5

Bases (weighted)

335

1082

658

455

413

2943

Bases (unweighted)

448

1264

636

390

298

3036

Respondents without any children were much more likely to expect to be in education in a year's time than those with children (50% and 12% respectively). Around four in ten (42%) of those with children expected to be in employment and, as one might expect, they were much more likely to expect to be looking after the home, family or children in the future, than those with no children (28% and 0% respectively).

Table 4-6 Expected activity in one year's time by children

All respondents

Children

No children

Total

Expected activity:

%

%

%

Out of work

-

1

1

In work

42

45

45

In education

12

50

49

Looking after child/family/home

28

0

1

Doing something else inc travelling/working abroad

18

4

5

Bases (weighted)

76

3105

3181

Bases (unweighted)

60

3129

3189

4.2 Expectations of main activity in four years' time

As well as being asked about what they expected to be doing in one year's time respondents were also asked what they thought they would be doing in four years' time i.e. spring 2009. Three-quarters expect to be in employment, 16% anticipated being in full-time education, 6% percent expected to be either doing something else or a combination of activities and 1% thought they would be out of work then. As was the case when respondents were asked what they thought they would be doing in one year's time, males were slightly more likely to think that they would be in employment (78% compared with 70% of females), whereas females were slightly more likely to think they will be in full-time education, doing something else or doing a combination of things (17% and 8% respectively).

Table 4-7 Expected activity in four years' time by gender

All respondents

Male

Female

Total

Expected activity:

%

%

%

Out of work

1

0

1

Full-time job

78

70

74

Part-time job

1

1

1

Full-time education

14

17

16

Government training programme

1

1

1

Looking after child/family/home

1

2

1

Travelling/ working abroad

1

1

1

Doing something else, or a combination of activities

4

8

6

Bases (weighted)

1614

1580

3194

Bases (unweighted)

1342

1866

3208

Taking into account that respondets will be aged 22/23 in spring 2009 it is not surprising that 49% expect to be in education in one year's time but only 16% expect to be so in four years' time. If respondets went straight into full-time further or higher education from school then most will have completed education and moved into employment by this age. In line with these expectations a much larger proportion of respondents expect to be in employment in four years' time (74% compared with 40% who expect to be in employment in one year's time).

Table 4-8 Expected activity in four years' time by gender

All respondents

One year's time

Four years time

Expected activity:

%

%

Out of work

1

1

Full-time job

40

74

Part-time job

2

1

Full-time education

49

16

Work placement/ Government training programme

3

1

Looking after child/family/home

1

1

Travelling/ working abroad

0

1

Doing something else, or a combination of activities

4

6

Bases (weighted)

3192

3194

Bases (unweighted)

3199

3208

When previous cohort expectations in fours years time (19 in 1999 and 19 in 2001) are compared with this years cohort (19 in 2005) there appears to be little difference in expectation. The only noticeable difference was a slight increase in the proportion of 19 year olds who expected to be in education (12% in 1999 and 2001, 16% in 2005).

Table 4-9 Expected activity in four years' time by gender

All respondents

19 in 1999

19 in 2001

19 in 2005

Expected activity:

%

%

%

Out of work

1

1

1

Full-time job

75

75

74

Part-time job

2

1

1

Full-time education

12

12

16

Government training programme

0

1

1

Looking after child/family/home

3

2

1

Travelling/ working abroad

2

1

1

Other/ combination of activities

6

7

6

Don't know

-

1

-

Bases (weighted)

2457

5003

3194

Bases (unweighted)

2469

5003

3208

Around eight in ten of those in employment or on a GTP at the time of the survey expected to be in work in four years time. However it is interesting to note that 10% of those in full-time work and 15% of those in part-time work expected to have moved from work into education by then. Around half (55%) of those looking after the home or family expected to be in employment in four years time, while one in ten still expected to be looking after the home or family and 16% thought they would be doing something else or a combination of activities, perhaps looking after the family alongside part-time work or education. It is also worth noting that 3% of those who were out of work at the time of the survey still expected to be out of work in four years' time.

Table 4-10 Expected activity in four years' time by activty status

All respondents

Full-time job

GTP

Part-time work

Out of work

Full-time education

Looking after home/ family

Other

Total

Expected activity:

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Out of work

1

0

0

3

1

-

-

1

In work

81

86

78

84

71

55

48

76

In education

10

1

15

9

22

18

30

16

Looking after child/family/home

2

2

1

1

0

10

2

1

Doing something else inc travelling/working abroad

7

11

6

3

6

16

20

7

Bases (weighted)

839

276

269

245

1451

49

46

3175

Bases (unweighted)

704

202

243

148

1809

37

51

3194

As was the case with expectations for one year's time those coming from professional backgrounds were more likely to expect to be in education in four years' time than those from other class backgrounds. Around three in ten (29%) of those from higher managerial and professional backgrounds expected to be in education in spring 2009 compared with around one in ten (9%) of those with parents in routine or semi-routine occupations, whereas those from routine and semi-routine social class backgrounds were the group most likely to anticipate being in work in four years' time (84%).

Table 4-11 Expected activity in four years' time by social class of respondent parents

All respondents

Higher managerial & professional

Lower professional & managerial/ higher technical & supervisory

Intermediate occupations & self-employed

Lower supervisory & technical

Routine & semi-routine

Total

Expected activity:

%

%

%

%

%

%

Out of work

0

1

1

0

1

1

In work

62

72

78

82

84

76

In education

29

19

13

9

9

16

Looking after child/family/home

1

1

1

0

2

1

Doing something else inc travelling/working abroad

7

7

8

8

4

7

Bases (weighted)

337

1082

658

454

416

2947

Bases (unweighted)

450

1265

639

389

300

3043

As has already been discussed respondents with children were less likely to expect to be in work or education in one year's time than those with none. The same was also true when asked what they thought they would be doing in four years' time. Three-quarters (76%) of those without children expected to be in employment in spring 2009 compared with 58% of those with children. One in ten of those with children expected to be looking after the family or home.

Table 4-12 Expected activity in four years' time by children

All respondents

Children

No children

Total

Expected activity:

%

%

%

Out of work

-

1

1

In work

58

76

76

In education

12

16

16

Looking after child/family/home

10

1

1

Doing something else inc travelling/working abroad

20

7

7

Bases (weighted)

74

3114

3188

Bases (unweighted)

58

3141

3199

4.3 Feelings of control over life

Respondents were given a series of statements relating to feelings of control over life and asked how much they agreed or disagreed with each of them. Views were largely positive; however, around one in eight felt they had little control over things that happen to them (13%). A similar proportion (15%) felt there was no way they could solve the problems they had. However, around seven in ten (68%) disagreed with the statement 'I often feel helpless in dealing with the problems of life.' A similar proportion disagreed with the notion that they were sometimes pushed around in life (71%). More than nine in ten respondents agreed that what happened to them in the future mostly depended on themselves (92%).

There was little variation in responses between males and females. Females were slightly more likely to agree that they felt helpless dealing with the problems of life (23% compared with 17% of male respondents) and slightly more likely to agree that they sometimes felt they were being pushed around in life (20% compared with 16% of male respondents).

Table 4-13 Feelings of control over life by gender

All respondents

Male

Female

Total

%

%

%

I have little control over things that happen to me

Agree

14

13

13

Disagree

77

75

76

Neither

10

12

11

There's really no way I can solve some of the problems I have

Agree

15

16

15

Disagree

77

75

76

Neither

8

10

9

I often feel helpless in dealing with the problems of life

Agree

17

23

20

Disagree

72

64

68

Neither

11

13

12

Sometimes I feel that I am being pushed around in life

Agree

16

20

18

Disagree

73

68

71

Neither

11

12

12

What happens to me in the future mostly depends upon me

Agree

92

92

92

Disagree

4

3

4

Neither

4

4

4

Bases (weighted)

1615-1621

1589

3204-3210

Bases (unweighted)

1345-1348

1874-1875

3219-3223

Respondents who were out of work, looking after the family or doing something else ('other') at the time of the survey were the groups most likely to agree with the negative statements on control. Thirty-one percent of those looking after the home or family felt that they had little control over things that happen to them, compared with 14% among those in full-time work and only 10% of those in full-time education. Those looking after the home or family or doing something else were more than twice as likely to report feeling helpless in dealing with the problems of life than those in full-time employment or education (41% and 46% compared with 19% and 17% respectively). However it is also worth noting that those looking after the home or family were least likely to feel they were being pushed around, (14%) while those on GTPs were least likely to report feeling helpless in dealing with life's problems (16%). However, the evidence does suggest that on the whole those out of work or doing something else feel they have a lot less control over their lives than those in work, education or on a GTP.

Table 4-14 Feelings of control over life by activity status

All respondents

Full-time work

GTP

Part-time work

Out of work

Full-time education

Looking after home/ family

Other

Total

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

I have little control over things that happen to me

Agree

14

17

14

21

10

31

31

13

Disagree

76

73

74

62

81

51

62

76

Neither

10

10

12

18

9

18

7

11

There's really no way I can solve some of the problems I have

Agree

14

14

17

33

12

33

22

15

Disagree

77

79

70

60

80

53

72

76

Neither

10

7

13

8

8

14

7

9

I often feel helpless in dealing with the problems of life

Agree

19

16

24

35

17

41

46

20

Disagree

71

71

65

60

70

51

48

68

Neither

11

13

11

5

14

8

7

12

Sometimes I feel that I am being pushed around in life

Agree

16

16

22

29

16

14

29

18

Disagree

72

76

68

59

11

63

58

71

Neither

12

9

19

12

73

24

13

12

What happens to me in the future mostly depends upon me

Agree

92

94

90

88

93

86

96

92

Disagree

4

3

7

8

3

4

2

4

Neither

4

4

4

4

4

10

2

4

Bases (weighted)

836-841

282

270-271

252-255

1445-1451

51

45-46

3186-3193

Bases (unweighted)

704-708

207

245

150-151

1808-1811

38

51

3205-3209

There also appeared to be evidence of a relationship between parental social class and feelings of control over life. On the whole, those with parents from a professional social class background were more likely to feel that they had control over life than those from other social class backgrounds. For example, 7% of respondents from a higher managerial and professional social class background felt they had little control over things that happen to them, whereas 17% from a partially skilled or unskilled social class background felt the same. Those with parents in routine or semi-routine occupations were most likely to agree that there was no way they could solve some of the problems they have (22%); most likely to report feeling helpless in dealing with the problems of life (23%); and most likely to feel that they are sometimes pushed around in life (21%).

Table 4-15 Feelings of control over life by social class of respondents' parents

All respondents

Higher managerial & professional

Lower professional & managerial/ higher technical & supervisory

Intermediate occupations & self-employed

Lower supervisory & technical

Routine & semi-routine

Total

%

%

%

%

%

%

I have little control over things that happen to me

Agree

7

11

14

17

17

13

Disagree

81

81

73

73

72

77

Neither

12

8

13

10

11

11

There's really no way I can solve some of the problems I have

Agree

13

11

14

18

22

15

Disagree

78

81

78

71

69

77

Neither

9

8

8

11

10

9

I often feel helpless in dealing with the problems of life

Agree

18

18

20

23

23

20

Disagree

71

70

66

66

69

68

Neither

11

12

13

11

9

12

Sometimes I feel that I am being pushed around in life

Agree

15

16

19

18

21

18

Disagree

73

73

69

71

67

71

Neither

12

11

12

11

12

11

What happens to me in the future mostly depends upon me

Agree

92

93

93

92

92

93

Disagree

3

3

3

2

4

3

Neither

5

4

3

5

4

4

Bases (weighted)

338-340

1085-1088

663-666

453-456

412-417

2957-2963

Bases (unweighted)

450-452

1268-1271

642-644

390-391

299-300

3052-3056

There is also evidence of a significant relationship between feelings of control over life and whether respondents have children or not, with those that have children feeling less in control of their lives than those with none. For example, those with children were more likely to agree that there was really no way they could solve all the problems they had (26% compared with 15% of those with no children) and less likely to agree that what happened to them in the future mostly depended on themselves (84% compared with 92%).

Table 4-16 Feelings of control over life by children

All respondents

Children

No children

Total

%

%

%

I have little control over things that happen to me

Agree

21

13

13

Disagree

76

61

76

Neither

10

18

11

There's really no way I can solve some of the problems I have

Agree

26

15

15

Disagree

62

76

76

Neither

12

9

9

I often feel helpless in dealing with the problems of life

Agree

29

20

20

Disagree

59

68

68

Neither

12

12

12

Sometimes I feel that I am being pushed around in life

Agree

14

18

18

Disagree

69

71

71

Neither

17

11

12

What happens to me in the future mostly depends upon me

Agree

84

92

92

Disagree

8

4

4

Neither

8

4

4

Bases (weighted)

72-73

3119-3127

3192-3199

Bases (unweighted)

58

3151-3155

3209

4.4 Key points

  • Around half (49%) of all respondents expected to be in full-time education in one year's time.
  • While the majority (77%) of those in full-time employment still expected to be in work in one year's time it, 17% thought they would have moved into education by then.
  • While those with parents in professional occupations were significantly more likely than other groups to expect to be in education in one year's time, those with parents in manual occupations were more likely to expect to be in employment by then. This was also the case when asked about expected activity in four years' time.
  • Respondents with children were significantly less likely than those without children to expect to be in education in one year's time, and significantly more likely to be looking after the home or family.
  • When asked what they expected to be doing in four years' time, three-quarters expected to be in work and 16% expected to be in full-time education.
  • One in ten of those in full-time employment and 15% of those in part-time employment thought they would have moved into education in four year's time.
  • Respondents with children were significantly less likely than those without children to expect to be in work in four years' time.
  • On the whole respondents were fairly positive about the amount of control they had over their lives. Three-quarters disagreed with the statements 'I have little control over things that happen to me' and 'there is really no way I can solve some of the problems I have.'
  • Those out of work, looking after the home and family or doing something else feel less in control of their lives than others.
  • Respondents with parents in professional occupations felt they had more control over their lives than other groups.
  • There was a significant relationship between feelings of control over life and whether a respondent has a child or not. For example, around a quarter (26%) of those with children felt there was no way they could solve all the problems they had compared with 15% of those without children.

Page updated: Tuesday, December 06, 2005