Scottish Government

CHAPTER FOUR: NEET POLICY EFFECTIVENESS

KEY POINTS

General NEET Policy

• The nature of the NEET literature - the qualitative nature of the NEET-based literature was a common theme in this literature review. This might be due to a lack of data and statistics and a historical focus on assessing policy effectiveness on the basis of inputs and outputs. It has not been possible to provide comprehensive details of key statistical outcomes of policy interventions;
• Policy design from an 'holistic' support perspective - until recently, many policies with an EET focus appear to have been designed with a limited perspective on how to address / remove the risk factors and barriers which prevent the NEET group from making a successful and sustainable transition to EET;
• Parity of esteem between Education, Employment and Training -there has been an historical tendency to assume the 'superiority' of the Education option at the transition stage, regardless of its apparent likely success with the young people involved. This is now much less obvious in more recent policy interventions, where employment and training options are perceived more positively.

Specific Policies & Programmes

• Employability policies -there is a lack of wholly reliable evidence concerning how these translate into positive, longer-term, labour market outcomes. There are concerns relating to the deadweight incurred by some programmes and how historical incentive structures may have impacted negatively upon those most in need of transition support. The Careers Scotland Inclusiveness Service has shown signs of early success, in e.g. the Key Worker mobilising wider partnership working efforts. There appears to be a continued need to support the 'holistic' delivery infrastructure for the Get Ready for Work programme;
• Prolonging periods of education and training - there are perceived benefits in 'prolonging' periods of education and training, especially for those with low prior attainment. However, there is a lack of clarity concerning the value of FE for prior, low attainers who are assessing their transition options;
• Post-School Education ( FE and HE interventions) - the literature points to the need for intensive support in the first year of study, when dropping-out is most prevalent, as well as the need to understand more about the importance of 'networks' of peer support in encouraging young people to stay on at FE or HE;
• Widening choices at pre-16 stage - many initiatives are still in their infancy but elements of both EMAs and ICSs appear to be showing early signs of success;

• Curriculum re-engagement/alternative curriculum initiatives - these initiatives were difficult to examine due to their lack of 'presence' at a national level;
• Financial Incentives - policies, such as the EMA, appear to be very important, with early signs of success in staying on rates;
• Wider environment of IAG - both formal ( e.g. service providers) and informal ( e.g. parents and peers) 'networks' of support appear to be very important in shaping and influencing EET decisions for young people.

INTRODUCTION

• 4.1 This Chapter summarises the findings from the literature in terms of policy effectiveness. This was done by ascertaining patterns across the literature, in relation to the general effectiveness of policy as well as specific findings relating to the effectiveness of individual policy interventions. As such, issues identified in this Chapter represent the core themes across the literature. The Chapter has been structured in the following way:

• General NEET policy effectiveness
• Effectiveness of specific policies & programmes:
• Employability policies;
• IAG policies;
• Financial support policies;
• Widen choice at pre-16;
• FE and HE policies.
• Policy effectiveness from the NEET sub-group perspective - findings, here are limited but offer insights of policy effectiveness for several NEET sub-groups;

• Sharing practice: Scotland and the rest of the UK - some insights into programmes with similar themes or principles.

4.2 Key points from this Chapter are included at the beginning of each section.

GENERAL POLICY EFFECTIVENESS

KEY POINTS

• The nature of the NEET-based literature - there is an apparent lack of connection across the literature between examining policy effectiveness and addressing the risk factors and barriers which exist for the NEET group and sub-groups;
• The qualitative nature of the literature - the NEET literature has tended to focus on qualitative elements of NEET policy effectiveness. Such research is often limited in its ability to determine policy outcomes, and rather, focuses on inputs and outputs, There are a range of reasons for this qualitative focus:

• Some research / evaluation studies have been specifically set up to explore more qualitative elements;
• Access to longitudinal and cohort-based data is often in short supply, together with a limited statistical evidence base;
• Most research / evaluation work has tended to focus upon outputs ( e.g. measuring success through completion of programmes);

• An apparent lack of focus on more 'holistic' packages of intervention support to NEET groups - ( i.e. addressing both risk factors and enhancing opportunities for EET). There have been more recent moves to address risk factors through more 'holistic' policy interventions ( e.g. Integrated Community Schools, Get Ready for Work and the Careers Scotland key worker service);
• Lack of parity of esteem with education, employment and training - There has been an historical tendency to place more value on the Education option of EET, rather than exploring the value of each of the 3 options, in line with individual needs. There is a growing recognition and drive to address this at national level;
• Lack of clarity of success in 'translating' employability programmes into positive, longer-term labour market outcomes. There appears to be both a lack of wholly reliable evidence of longer-term labour market outcomes of such programmes;

Gaps in the literature - there appear to be gaps in the literature which examines EET-based policy effectiveness with asylum seekers, BMEs, young parents, young carers and young care leavers following the transition from a care setting.

Patterns Across the Literature

• 4.3 A range of patterns have been ascertained across the literature which have implications for the reliability of overall analysis of the NEET-based literature. These are described below.

An Apparent Lack of Connection Between Literature Focusing Upon The Effectiveness of NEET Policy and The Associated Risk Factors Across NEET Groups

4.4 As has been noted in previous Chapters, this study has focused on the effectiveness of policies which aim to 'get the NEET group into EET'. The literature did not offer as extensive detail as was anticipated regarding what barriers or risk factors exist which have impeded the progress of certain groups from making the transition from NEET to EET. These risk factors are important to understand since their existence and prevalence is a key reason why NEET policy interventions are required. It also seems from the literature that the intensity of such risk factors will influence the extent to which policy interventions will be effective, whereby more complex, ingrained and concentrated barriers are likely to be more difficult to overcome.

4.5 This is, perhaps, best understood when examining policy effectiveness with NEET sub-groups. These sub-groups are often classified upon the basis of their early experiences and personal circumstances ( e.g. young care leavers) and characteristics ( e.g.BME). There is a wider base of literature which examines the 'holistic' needs of these groups - e.g. health care needs, access to childcare facilities. It has not been possible to make strong connections between this literature (which might offer a better understanding of the wider risk factors and barriers) and the NEET-based literature, since these sources exist separately.

The Qualitative Nature of the Literature

4.6 As noted in Chapter One, the NEET literature has tended to focus on qualitative elements of NEET policy effectiveness, through, for example, an examination of the delivery infrastructures which exist and understanding participants' satisfaction with NEET programmes / interventions. These are important factors to consider in understanding overall policy effectiveness. However, such research is often limited in its ability to determine policy outcomes and, rather, focuses on policy inputs and outputs. There are a range of reasons for this:

• Some research / evaluation studies have been specifically set up to explore more qualitative elements, especially interim evaluations and scoping studies;
• Related to the above, the relative 'newness' of some policy interventions makes it difficult to determine their longer-term effectiveness ( e.g. Integrated Community Schools, Careers Scotland key worker service) and so early research / evaluation has tended towards more qualitative assessments;
• Access to longitudinal and cohort-based data is often in short supply, making it difficult, if not impossible, to ascertain specific policy outcomes. This is a particular issue with the groups involved who - due to lifestyles and characteristics - are more difficult to track over time;
• Most research / evaluation work has tended to focus upon outputs ( e.g. measuring success through completion of programmes). This is based - to some extent - upon the success measures which have been established for policy interventions, where there has been a historical tendency to determine their success by participation and completion of the programme / intervention. This makes it difficult to understand the 'conversions' of policy interventions into the longer-term EET status of programme participants.

4.7 For the above reasons, it is clear that research and evaluation literature relating to the NEET group is more skewed towards qualitative assessments, with limited information relating to policy outcomes and impacts.

General Nature of Policies and Programmes

4.8 As noted above, most NEET-based policies have been designed with the objective of 'getting NEET into EET'. It is not clear from the literature that such policies take sufficient account of addressing the risk factors which exist and which seem to prevent the NEET groups from making an effective transition to EET. There therefore appears to be an insufficient focus on more 'holistic' packages of intervention support to the various NEET groups, such that risk factors and barriers can be addressed in a more effective way. There have been more recent moves to address risk factors through more 'holistic' policy interventions ( e.g. Integrated Community Schools, Get Ready for Work and the Careers Scotland key worker service) but the longer-term impact of these has yet to be felt. It should also be noted that not all of these policies are targeted specifically at the NEET group.

4.9 Lack of parity of esteem with education, employment and training: There is a tendency - due to cultural norms - for all involved players to place more value on the Education option of EET, rather than exploring the value of each of the 3 options, in line with individual needs. There is a growing recognition and drive to address this at national level. A general theme across the literature is that the NEET group benefits more generally from post-compulsory education and training.

Limitations in Ascertaining Policy Outcomes

4.10 Limitations concerning robust and reliable NEET-based data might be impacting upon the reliability of evaluations. This was frequently noted in the literature, where data sets used contained provisos relating to overall reliability. This is also likely to be a key factor in the qualitative nature of much of the NEET-based literature. As a result it has not been possible, from the literature, to provide comprehensive details of key statistical outcomes of policy interventions. Not all sources researched this area, and - of those which did - figures were often limited to starting figures and - at best - completion rates.

4.11 Table 4.1 provides a summary of some of the evidence of progress and statistics available for key programmes. MHany of the statistics and sources used have been derived from national policy documents, so can be assumed to offer a robust evidence base. However, due to the difficulties in offering wholly reliable data, these findings should be treated with some caution.

4.12 Another message from the literature relates to a lack of clarity of success in 'translating' vocational and work-based programmes into positive, longer-term labour market outcomes. While youth training programmes boost participation, there appears to be both a lack of wholly reliable evidence of longer-term labour market outcomes and, where limited evidence does exist, this appears to question the success of 'converting' to labour market outcomes (Raffe, D., 2000, Home Comparisons of Post-16 Education and Training,CED Briefings; Bonjour, D. et al, 2002, Evaluation of New Deal for Young People in Scotland Phase 2, Scottish Executive).

Delivery infrastructures and completion rates

4.13 Success of policy inputs and outputs is most readily observed in the extent to which delivery infrastructures are adequately equipped to address policy objectives and in completion rates for programmes and courses. The literature suggests that there is still a great deal of work to be done on these two fronts, although partnership working environments and integrated access to a more extensive resource base are areas which have seen significant development.

Table 4.1: Some Key Policy Programme Statistics

Gaps in the literature

4.14 There appear to be gaps in the literature which examines EET-based policy effectiveness with asylum seekers, BMEs, young parents, young carers and young care leavers following the transition from a care setting. It should also be noted that this literature review was unable to source international literature relating to EET-based interventions. This was a function of both the intensity of the review of both Scottish and rest of UK-based literature and the lack of 'signposting' within the Scottish literature to other, international sources.

4.15 The following areas have been highlighted as key themes where there are no / very few obvious literature sources within the Scottish context. It might be the case that some of this literature exists within a wider literature base which examines the more holistic needs and attributes of these groups. However, for the reasons outlined in Chapter one, it has not been possible to source this literature during this study.

4.16 There is also a possibility that this literature does not exist or is in short supply ( e.g. within a source relating to the support needs of young carers, a section relating to educational and post-school transition support for young carers.) The key gaps within the literature appear to be:

• The effectiveness of EET-related polices with asylum seekers;
• The effectiveness of EET-related polices with BMEs;
• The effectiveness of EET-related polices with young parents;
• The effectiveness of EET-related polices with young carers;
• The effectiveness of EET-related polices with young care leavers at post-care transition stage.

4.17 Additionally, a separate literature exercise might also serve to identify the 'overlaps' between the literature which examines the various risk factors and barriers faced by the various NEET sub-groups and the more EET-based literature identified in this study.

4.18 The literature did not uncover information relating to how 'others' might influence the choices of young people and - in particular - the NEET group. The influence of 'others' (such as service providers and peers) can be both positive and negative, yet the impact of this is not well-documented in the literature. Where - for example - young people receive poor levels of service quality and support from service providers or where someone has been the subject of bullying, these are likely to impact in some way, upon the decisions and transition outcomes for some people.

4.19 This study has also been unable to explore in any detail relevant international literature. Neither the Scottish nor UK-wide literature sourced made obvious links to 'outside UK' policy interventions. However, this is an area which would benefit from a more thorough examination in the future.

POLICY EFFECTIVENESS - EMPLOYABILITY POLICIES

KEY POINTS

• Lack of evidence of how programmes translate into longer term, labour market outcomes - this issue is at least partially caused by the difficulties in tracking the NEET group over time.
• Presence of deadweight - it appears that at least some individuals who might have found work through the 'normal' routes of job search are benefiting from the support available through employability programmes. Importantly, this might be having a detrimental effect on those furthest from the labour market and - arguably - in most need of support. Some of the literature points to historical incentives for programme delivery agents (such as training providers) to 'favour' those with the clearest potential, in order to achieve targets for programme recruitment and completion.
• The Careers Scotland key worker services have shown early signs of success, particularly with the function of the Key Worker role.
• Early signals of success with the Get Ready for Work programme point to the need for more 'holistic' support in addressing the needs of the client group and facilitating a successful transition to EET status.

4.20 The following issues have been identified from the literature, in relation to employability policies:

• Lack of evidence of 'translation' into longer-term, labour market outcomes (Raffe, D., 2000, Home International Comparisons of Post-16 Education and Training,CED Briefings; GCU, 2004, Modern Apprenticeships: Improving Completion Rates, Scottish Executive; Bonjour, D., 2002, Evaluation of New Deal for Young People in Scotland Phase 2, Scottish Executive). The costs of undertaking such intensive tracking are also very high;
• The presence of deadweight for some programmes has also been questioned, whereby some of those participating in employability programmes might have been able to access employment through the more traditional routes, which require significantly less public support;
• The literature also identified some concerns about historical targeting and incentive structures which have appeared to 'favour' those with the clearest potential of completing programmes ( GCU, 2004, Modern Apprenticeships: Improving Completion Rates, Scottish Executive), to the detriment of those who are - arguably - most in need of such support. This might have been caused by targets and objectives which focused upon programme recruitment and completion, without clear specifications of sub-groups for prioritised participation. Such groups are often the most difficult to engage and maintain in programmes;
• The Careers Scotland key worker services have shown signs of early success, particularly in how the role of the Key Worker is being mobilised to co-ordinate wider partnership working efforts ( SQW and NFO Social Research, 2003 and 2004, A National Evaluation of the Inclusiveness Projects, Scottish Executive);
• There appears to be a continued need to support the 'holistic' delivery infrastructure for the Get Ready for Work programme, such that a clearer emphasis is placed upon the programme's role in addressing barriers and risk factors. This might also provide stronger support for the programme's status as both a labour market and social policy initiative (Smart Consultancy and Eddy Adams Consultants, 2003, Get Ready for Work, Scottish Executive);
• The literature also noted the need to explore labour market outcomes of those individuals with low attainment who leave school early and who have had no 'exposure' to employability programmes or other EET-based policy interventions - in the absence of evidence, it is not clear how such individuals fare in the labour market in comparison to those who do access support through employability programmes (Furlong et al, 2003, Youth Transitions: Patterns of Vulnerability and Processes of Social Inclusion, Scottish Executive);
• The role of training providers appears to be very important in influencing completion rates for programmes. However, it is not clear that training providers across programmes are appropriately and consistently skilled to deal with the issues of the NEET groups. Despite more recent moves to ensure that programmes consider such barriers and risk factors in programme design ( e.g. Get Ready for Work), it is not yet clear whether this has been successful (Smart Consultancy and Eddy Adams Consultants, 2003, Get Ready for Work, Scottish Executive; GCU, 2004, Modern Apprenticeships: Improving Completion Rates, Scottish Executive);
• New Deal for Young People - the literature, here, pointed to some concerns that (due to labour market constraints) - making young people 'employable' would be insufficient to ensure a successful transition to the labour market, following participation in the programme. This relates to the buoyancy of the labour market (Bonjour, D., 2002, Evaluation of New Deal for Young People in Scotland Phase 2, Scottish Executive). Where young people remained unemployed for 6-12 months after participation, there was some evidence that exits to training and education far outweighed effects on employment. The literature also noted a need for more and better data to understand New Deal outcomes. It was also identified that insufficient analysis exists regarding different non-employment outcomes of participants;
• Modern Apprenticeships - analysis noted that the age of the apprentice was not found to have an effect on completion. Nor was it proven that non-completion would lead to unemployment. In fact, the literature noted that non-completion does not appear to affect significantly an individual's career progression or their ability to find work ( GCU, 2004, Modern Apprenticeships: Improving Completion Rates, Scottish Executive). It is difficult to ascertain for this why 'temporary' MA status - with non-completion - can support a successful transition to the labour market: is this due to the temporary support from the Programme or would these individuals have made a successful transition to the labour market without taking part in an MA? As noted earlier in this Chapter, training providers were found to be a key influence on completion rates. There were some concerns raised regarding the funding system for the programme and that incentives were more positioned towards starting the programme than completion;
• Skillseekers - there is some evidence to suggest that participation in Skillseekers is gendered ( CES, 2004, Destinations of Early Leavers). This is due - at least partially - to the nature of some of the employment placement options and their traditional status as being male-oriented. It seems that schools, employer associations and Sector Skills Councils might have a role to play in addressing this;
• Get Ready for Work (based on early analysis only)- there were some early concerns that there were insufficient changes being made to the cultural context of provision, to make the programme effective, in the intended way. This relates to the programme's emphasis on addressing the holistic barriers to progression through, for example, the Life Skills strand. A lack of clarity appeared to exist among providers and stakeholders regarding the 'direction' of the programme - was it to be a labour market or social policy initiative? (Smart Consultancy and Eddy Adams Consultants, 2003, Get Ready for Work, Scottish Executive);
• Get Ready for Work and 'transition' to Skillseekers - It was also noted that the 'jump' from GRfW to Skillseekers was too great and that more support was required before this transition could be considered. There were also some early concerns regarding the purpose of, and responsibility for, assessment tools, as well as lack of clarity regarding responsibility for recruiting young people. There was also felt to be limited access to after-care services. Like the findings related to New Deal for Young People, it was felt that outcomes were largely dependent upon the buoyancy of the labour market (Smart Consultancy and Eddy Adams Consultants, 2003, Get Ready for Work, Scottish Executive).
• Employability programmes outside Scotland - in line with Scottish policy findings, wider UK policy findings point to the importance of ensuring that training providers possess the right skills and experience to work with the NEET group. There is fairly limited evidence of the 'right' skills sets existing in abundance to support the NEET groups, through employability-based options. Again, the UK literature reiterated concerns relating to incentive structures and the potential for work-based programmes to 'cream' the young people most likely to interact well with interventions, to the detriment of those who would have needed additional support - e.g. the NEET group and sub-groups. (Social Exclusion Unit, DfEE, 1999, Bridging the Gap: New Opportunities for 16-18 Year Olds Not in Education, Employment or Training,DfEE) However, this information is derived from a more historical evidence base.

POLICY EFFECTIVENESS - IAG POLICIES

KEY POINTS

• Formal and informal channels of IAG support - there appears to be a need to better understand how formal and informal 'channels' of IAG integrate and the impact of 'deficits' in either of these.
• Family influence - related to the above, the literature points to the strong influence over transition decision making which is present from families. Clearly, in the absence of supportive, positive and effective family support, some young people are likely not to benefit as obviously from others, where family support networks are strong and effective.
• Peer mentoring programmes - the literature points to a lack of a strong evidence base for how these operate and how young people might benefit from such mechanisms.
• Careers Scotland key worker services (Inclusiveness Projects)- these projects, now integrated into Careers Scotland are the most recent and most significant example of support for the NEET group. Early indications of success include the role of Key Workers in mobilising the efforts of other service providers. The service is highly dependent upon robust IT systems for tracking the progress and needs of the client group.
• Policy outside of Scotland: Connexions - this policy intervention has been in place longer than the Careers Scotland key worker service and is based on similar principles relating to a 'Key Worker' role. There are early signs of success with this policy.

4.21 The literature pointed to the following policy effectiveness issues, in relation to IAG policies:

• 'Formal' and 'informal' channels of IAG support - formal channels of IAG relate to those offered through the service provider route ( e.g. teachers and careers advisers) while informal routes relate to influences about transition decisions stemming from peer groups, parents and guardians. The literature indicates that while more is known about formal routes of IAG, it is likely that informal routes are more influential and may even over-ride the influence of more formal routes (Semple, S et al, 2002, Young Peoples' Transitions: Career Support From Family and Friends,CES). The literature points to a need to better understand how informal routes operate and how the integration of both routes might better serve young people making transition decisions. It was also noted that informal routes are likely to be less supportive or effective in making transition decisions with those young people from some NEET sub-groups (such as young care leavers and long-term unemployed family background). These are the individuals who are, arguably, most in need of robust and effective IAG support routes;
• Importance of family influence - connected to the above, some studies point to the importance and influence of family involvement in the decisions and commitment of young people both prior to transition stage and as they work through their options. This works both positively and negatively. In addition, the extent to which the NEET group can address barriers to becoming EET is very much influenced by the family / home environment. There are obvious implications, here, for those young people who lack this 'resource';
• Peer mentoring programmes - some literature suggests that policies have paid insufficient attention to the promotion of peer mentoring programmes, especially at pre-transition stages (Stone, V., et al, 2000, Mapping Troubled Lives: Young People Not in Education, Employment or Training,DfEE). It is possible that a range of mentoring programmes - some of these based on peer mentoring - are in place across Scotland which appear to be effective in offering support in decision making. Consideration of such programmes at an early stage, with the NEET at-risk group, and the development of a longer timescale in preparing for transition decisions, might support more effective decision making for this group. This could also be considered as part of an 'integrated network' of support for IAG - both formally and informally. Such programmes could also take a more holistic perspective of the risk factors present for some NEET groups and could offer support in counselling and emotional literacy;
• The role of 'others' in influencing the NEET status of young people - e.g. training providers, service providers and peers. These can be both positive ( e.g. strong support and guidance) and negative ( e.g. poor quality training providers, lack of specialist skills of service providers, bullying). These external influences cannot be 'controlled' or managed in a way which would consistently mitigate against negative outcomes, yet these groups can have a significant impact upon the transition to EET. More research appears necessary regarding the effects of bullying at school and the future participation and performance of those pupils being bullied.

4.22 Careers Scotland key worker service - It is still too early to tell how effective this service is likely to be in the longer-term. However, the development and delivery of these interventions marks a significant change in Scottish Executive policy, in terms of a recognition of the specific needs of the NEET group and that more holistic policy interventions are required to address these needs. The challenges have already been seen in the planning and delivery of these projects, which require significant resource and a wide range of skills of the key workers involved. The ability to 'mobilise' services and resources to respond to the multiple challenges of the young people involved is a significant undertaking. However, findings from the interim and final evaluations of the projects indicate that partnership working has been significantly mobilised through key workers and that their 'pivotal' role is crucial to the success of these interventions. Participants have very much valued the one-to-one support offered through the Projects ( SQW and NFO Social Research, 2003 and 2004, A National Evaluation of the Inclusiveness Projects, Scottish Executive).

4.23 Careers Scotland key working: Importance of IT Systems - There is also a corresponding need to ensure that systems - particularly IT systems - are 'fit for purpose', in that they can hold vast amounts of information relating to the personal circumstances and characteristics of the participant group. Systems also require to track progress and to achieve a clear sense of changing participant needs. These challenges are further compounded by the nature of the client group which is difficult to retain and track over time.

4.24 Post-School Psychological Services - the Beattie Report (Implementing Inclusiveness Realising Potential: 1999) recognised that increased emphasis on transition and post-school support for young people with additional support needs underscored the need for continuity of service beyond school. An early survey ( Developing Post-School Psychological Services, Scottish Executive 2003) - of key stakeholders (Educational Psychological Services, Further Education sector, Training Providers and Careers Scotland) indicated that there was a lack of evident inter-agency work and delivery infrastructures needed further attention.. Post-School Psychological Services, building on the local authority educational psychological service, are now being piloted in 12 local authorities. These Pathfinders are being supported by 2 Strategic Officers who are currently working with key stakeholders to develop the model at local and national levels.

4.25 Additional Support Needs and Transition from School to College - the literature pointed to a lack of support, advice and information to both young people and their parents, which overlooks the importance of the family network in supporting young people with Additional Support Needs. It was also noted that support which was available within a school setting was often absent, once the move to FE had occurred. This suggests the need for better liaison and planning between the 2 settings ( HMIE, 2002, Moving On From School to College: ASN,HMIE; 2003, Supporting Students With Additional Needs in Further Education Colleges, Scottish Executive).

4.26 IAG Policies outside Scotland: Connexions Service - this policy area is by far the most significant in terms of relevance to the NEET group. A wide range of literature is available relating to Connexions. The following offers an overview of perceived policy effectiveness, although it should be noted that there is, as yet, no evidence of policy outcomes. The NAO report of Connexions identified that:

• Targeting the NEET group: Connexions has significantly improved the quality of information about the EET activity of 13-19 year olds. This is greatly assisted by a national information system. The service works most effectively in areas where Personal Advisers are able to identify individuals' needs, supply directly or broker the services they need and monitor their progress to ensure they are getting the necessary support. The service appears to be effective with the 'hidden NEET' since connections to local communities and access to the hard-to-reach is improving;
• Emerging benefits: The intervention is felt to impact positively upon the client group in the following ways - communication skills, changing behaviours and attitudes and self-confidence;
• Emerging concerns: Some concerns that Connexions is insufficiently focused on those young people with multiple barriers to making the transition to EET. In addition, the resource-intensiveness of delivering Connexions services is a key barrier to making progress, in the face of resource constraints. There is also a lack of clarity concerning whether schools and colleges are playing their part in supporting Connexions. The retention of good quality project staff for Connexions is also a growing concern, due to their highly specialised status and the demand for such skills and experience;
• Future focus: Continued efforts are required for the development of data sharing systems and partnerships, since these are deemed to offer the best options to ensuring that young people do not fall through the net. This is especially the case in trying to keep track of the movements of NEET groups;

POLICY EFFECTIVENESS - FINANCIAL SUPPORT POLICIES

KEY POINTS

• There are few financial support policies in operation across Scotland, which are designed to offer specific financial incentives to engage with EET options. The most recent of these - the EMA - has shown early signs of success in encouraging post-16 learners to continue with their education.
• The EMA in England has also demonstrated early success with a projected figure of an additional 72,000 young people expected to enter FE.
• The literature points to evidence that young people do undertake 'rational' decision making in weighing up their options at transition stages. It appears that low prior attainment is a key deterrent in encouraging young people to make any post-16 investments in education or training for fear of the lack of return. In these cases, it appears that a low waged, low skilled job may be the more attractive option.

4.27 There appear to be relatively few policy interventions addressing this theme either in Scotland or across the UK. However, the literature has indicated that financial incentives are important to young people in making decisions, at transition periods.

4.28 Financial incentives appear to be important to the NEET group in encouraging their consideration of EET options. So far, this has been seen in the current success of the EMA. Early evidence of the effectiveness of EMAs indicates that the policy has had a positive effect on both attendance and the performance of low attainers in absolute terms but this has not yet improved their relative position, in terms of attainment ( CES, 2004, Effects of Low Attainment on Young Peoples' Outcomes at 22-22, Scottish Executive). This suggests the need for further support for those in receipt of EMAs to ensure that attainment can be further bolstered and translated into effective EET decision making. What is less clear in relation to EMAs is how this policy is intended to interact with other policy initiatives ( e.g. Careers Scotland key worker services) in order that sufficient early intervention support is offered to groups at risk of becoming NEET.

4.29 There is also evidence from the literature to suggest that young people undertake 'rational' decision making in weighing up their EET options, in relation to the various risks involved. (Furlong et al, 2003, Youth Transitions: Patterns of Vulnerability and Processes of Social Inclusion, Scottish Executive) For example, previous low attainers are less likely to invest in further training or education if they feel that this will not pay-off. In such cases, there is still a likelihood that these young people will opt for low paid, low skilled jobs.

4.30 The expected success of the EMA in England can be demonstrated through the projected figure of an additional 72,000 young people expected to enter FE as a result of their EMA experience. However, some literature has questioned whether this will result in a more qualified NEET group, over time, or whether the EMA will equip the young people to complete their FE courses / qualifications.

POLICY EFFECTIVENESS - WIDENING CHOICES AT PRE-16

KEY POINTS

• The widening choices policy arena is more focused on the pre-16 group and tends towards universal policy interventions (such as ICSs) or initiatives targeted at those 'at risk' (such as IFP in England);
• Many Scottish based initiatives are still in their infancy and have not yet demonstrated their longer-term success. An early evaluation of ICSs indicated the difficulties in measuring the success of 'holistic' programmes.
• It is possible that a wider range of initiatives are in place at a local level ( e.g. across LAs) but these have not been identified in the more nationally-oriented literature. There are some indications of a lack of evidence of the success of alternative curriculum programmes and some concerns that planning infrastructures require some work in relation to a longer-term focus and clarity of purpose for all involved partners.
• There are some early indications of success with IFP in England, seeking to widen participation for 14-16 year olds.

4.31 There are a range of support mechanisms in place at the pre-16 stage. Some of these are more geared towards the at-risk group (such as FE / school collaborations) while others are more universal programmes but intended to be of more support to those most in need ( e.g.ICSs).

4.32 Many initiatives are still in their infancy but elements of both EMAs and ICSs appear to be showing early signs of success, despite the time needed for further embedding. So far, it has proved difficult to assess the performance of ICSs or to determine the extent to which the philosophy of the initiative is permeating teaching and learning methods or addressing the risk factors and barriers experienced by the NEET groups. In addition, there is no clarity at this early stage in the ICS-based literature concerning how the initiative is intended to address either IAG or lifelong learning issues. Early findings from the literature indicate that, where there is evidence of an amended curriculum for some pupils, this has shown some signs of success (Kendall et al, 2002, Delivery of the Curriculum to Disengaged Young People in Scotland, National Foundation for Educational Research).

4.33 The school environment and the 'at-risk' group - the literature points to the need to better understand how EET status and options are affected by pupils at school with part-time jobs (Raffe, D., 2003, Young People Not in Education, Employment or Training, Scottish Executive). This is an area which is currently under review within Scotland. There would also be benefit in further understanding the apparent contradiction relating to how intergenerational disadvantage and unemployment influences early school leaving, yet communities of high unemployment appear to encourage young people to stay on at school ( CES, 2004, Effects of Low Attainment on Young Peoples' Outcomes at 22-22, Scottish Executive).

4.34 Curriculum re-engagement projects / alternative curriculum projects -there appears to be some early signs of success with these projects, but a range of challenges exist relating to objective setting, co-ordinated planning and delivery and monitoring of progress (Kendall, S., et al, 2002, Delivery of the Curriculum to Disengaged Young People in Scotland, National Foundation for Educational Research). However, there is a limited evidence base in this area, and a possibility that initiatives are designed and delivered on a more local level.

4.35 Curriculum re-engagement projects / alternative curriculum options - these are likely to vary from one local authority area to another and there appears to be a lack of information concerning an overview of practice. The literature suggests that these interventions often come too late in a pupil's school life to make a discernible difference to attainment or attitude within the school setting. There is also some sense that the nature of the barriers and problems is insufficiently defined and analysed for different groups / individuals such that 'responses' are then not sufficiently tailored to needs. Other concerns relate to:

• Lack of resource to deliver projects, with too much of a short-term focus on what can be achieved;
• Insufficient partnership working across services who are best equipped to address particular needs and lack of coherence of joined-up delivery (Kendall, S., et al, 2002, Delivery of the Curriculum to Disengaged Young People in Scotland, National Foundation for Educational Research).

4.36 Literature relating to school / FE collaborations tended to focus on infrastructural issues. It should be noted that a wide range of school / college initiatives are beginning to emerge across Scotland, with a growing evidence base of 'what works'. In the meantime, the current literature has identified the following, particularly in relation to those students with Additional Support Needs ( HMIE, 2002, Moving On From School to College: Additional Support Needs,HMIE; 2003, Supporting Students With Additional Support Needs in Further Education Colleges, Scottish Executive) and other UK students, outside of Scotland:

• The need for clearer partnership agreements and understanding of individual responsibilities, as well as the need for clearer guidance on effective partnerships and operational matters;
• Addressing funding issues as early as possible;
• The involvement of all key partners - school, college, pupils and parents;
• Quality assurance issues in delivering / experimenting with new curricular areas and the appropriateness of content and methods for the pupils involved;
• Issues with rural settings - access and transport costs;
• Need for better co-ordination to reduce timetabling constraints.

4.37 Policy effectiveness outside Scotland - some of the English-based policy literature pointed to the danger of the school environment acting as an impediment to supporting those at risk of becoming NEET, through - e.g. - attitudes of staff, teaching / learning methods and problems with other pupils. This relates to the influence of 'others' as noted in the IAG section of this Chapter. This also illustrates that risk factors in combination can serve to concentrate barriers, especially where more 'personal' barriers are already in place ( e.g. home circumstances and personal characteristics). Early evidence of the success of the Increased Flexibility Programme in England points to some potential lessons that can be drawn for similar programmes in Scotland, especially in the early development of initiatives stemming from the School / College Review.

POLICY EFFECTIVENESS - POST SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT: FE AND HE POLICIES

KEY POINTS

• The literature points to the need for intensive support in the first year of study, when dropping-out is most prevalent.
• There is also a need to understand more about the importance of 'networks' of peer support in encouraging young people to stay on at FE or HE.
• Debt-aversity appears to be a crucial determinant in dropping-out, especially for those groups 'closest' to NEET status.
• The literature has also tended to question the extent to which FE offers a 'second chance' of attainment for those with low, prior attainment and whether returns to vocational qualifications are realised.
• The widening access agenda within FE and HE is a clear priority in Scotland, aimed at addressing social justice, education and lifelong learning objectives. As a relatively new agenda, an emerging evidence base regarding support required to targeted students is becoming clearer. This includes the need for an improved teaching and learning infrastructure, addressing wider barriers to engagement (such as childcare arrangements) and supporting young people to address the significant challenges of juggling study, part-time work, home and family commitments, as well as financial pressures. These issues are apparent across the literature for both FE and HE.

4.38 The literature identified the following issues relating to FE and HE interventions. Many of the issues identified apply across FE and HE settings. It should be noted that the widening access agenda is a relatively new initiative, with a growing evidence base of the needs of those students who are not traditional post-16 learners. A range of policy initiatives are developing to address this agenda and the recent School / College Review, as well as the Funding for Learners Review indicate the level of priority being afforded in this area.

4.39 There is an apparent lack of understanding of the causes of non-completion at HE, although poor subject choice was cited as a key reason for dropping out, with the literature indicating the need for earlier support to make better choices ( CRSIS, 2003, Why Do Students Leave University Early). The role of social networks was deemed to be very important in a young person's decision to drop out - in the absence of strong, HE-associated networks, young people would be more prone to feeling isolated.

4.40 There is an apparent lack of understanding of the role of ' support networks' at both FE and HE. Networks of peer support appear to be very important in influencing decisions to stay on. Such networks are often difficult to mobilise for those young people who often stay at home while attending FE or HE. Both transport and logistical issues make it difficult for effective 'integration' and can often lead to the young people - who are most likely to need such support - feeling isolated.

4.41 Lack of clarity concerning the value of FE for low attainers who are assessing their transition options - there are some concerns that FE is not always best positioned to address the needs of low attainers and that there might be opportunity costs in these young people not seeking out the more traditional labour market routes which they might have ordinarily pursued. This relates to how young people assess their options and that FE as a 'second chance' to improve attainment might not always be the best option for some young people who might benefit more from joining the labour market at a young age. From the opposite perspective, there is also an apparent need to examine how low attainers in the labour market might be competing with those in FE and HE, for part-time work ( CES, 2004, The Effects of Low Attainment on Young People's Outcomes at 22-23).

4.42 Debt- aversity and an apparent absence of 'coping mechanisms'- as indicated in Chapter 3, it is clear that the NEET groups are more likely that their peers to be debt-averse (despite similar levels of debt across all groups) and to be less likely than their peers to have effective 'coping mechanisms' to deal with the challenges of finance, study, home life and other commitments (Christie et al, 2004, Fitting In? University Culture and Widening Access Students, Centre for Research into Socially Inclusive Services). This is further compounded by an apparent lack of support in the provision of IAG and in the complexities of funding and eligibility for ( e.g.) hardship funds.

4.43 The literature also signals a need for a review of learning and teaching methods for those groups most at risk, as well as the need for improved IAG and supporting the removal of barriers such as childcare arrangements, funding complexities and funding inequalities. There is some evidence that FE attainment (for those who might ordinarily not have joined FE) tends to be on a par with other lower level FE attainers and might not offer an advantage in the labour market ( CES, 2004, The Effects of Low Attainment On Young Peoples' Outcomes at 22 and 23, Scottish Executive; Raffe, D., 2000, Home International Comparisons of Post-16 Education and Training,CED Briefings).

4.44 Related to the above, where FE qualifications are vocationally oriented, there appears to be insufficient evidence of how young people benefit from such attainment, and some sense that returns to vocational qualifications might be low.

4.45 The literature also indicates that widening access programmes in HE ( e.g. Scottish Widening Access Programme) are perceived to be bureaucratic and lacking in effective support infrastructures (Christie et al, 2004, Fitting In? University Culture and Widening Access Students, Centre for Research into Socially Inclusive Services) . Students still living at home are more likely to be from the NEET group and the literature indicates that - due to their accommodation status - they are 'separated' from the wider student group, making integration more difficult and vulnerability to isolation more obvious. Those in or close to the NEET group often struggled to balance the demands of study, work, family and other commitments.

POLICY EFFECTIVENESS FROM THE NEET SUB-GROUP PERSPECTIVE

4.46 It was not possible to undertake this type of analysis for all NEET sub-groups, due to the nature of the NEET literature. However, the following issues were identified for these NEET sub-groups: young people with mental health problems; support for recovering drug users and children in care / young care leavers.

Support for Young People with Mental Health Problems

4.47 The risks of becoming unemployed to those with mental health problems are exacerbated by how some mental health problems manifest themselves. For example, some problems might present basic skills challenges (such as time-keeping, interpersonal skills). Employers are often not aware of these difficulties and / or lack empathy with them. Individuals living in sheltered accommodation often experience difficulties in combining this with a job, due to some constraints regarding criteria for eligibility for sheltered accommodation. Research points to the importance of peer support programmes, flexible opportunities for learning and the need for EET environments to cater for multiple needs.

Labour Market Support for Recovering Drug Users

4.48 Given the nature and amount of support required by this NEET sub-group, it is not surprising that service providers frequently under-estimated the duration and intensity of treatment required - whether this occurred before or alongside EET-based intervention support. Services were also felt to be lacking in the following areas:

• After-care support;
• Wider awareness among service providers and participants of local labour market conditions;
• Lack of services to recovering drug users of BME origin;
• Rural areas - lack of specialist services and recurring challenges in addressing local stigma;
• Inadequate opportunities for homeless drug users;
• For drug users within prison settings, inadequate support and ineffective co-ordination between release and employment services, particularly prior to release (Effective Interventions Unit, 2001, Moving On: Education, Training and Employment for Recovering Drug User, Scottish Executive).

Children in Care / Young Care Leavers

4.49 There is a need to understand how the £10M distributed to LAs for improving the educational achievement of children in care is integrating with other funding / initiatives to add value (Who Cares? Scotland, 2004, A Different Class?, Scottish Executive). There is also some sense that - despite the new legislation relating to throughcare and aftercare support for young care leavers - there are still shortfalls relating to multi-disciplinary assessments of these young people. There are clear implications, here, for how young care leavers prepare for the transition stage to EET. Other highlighted areas from the literature relevant to this group are (Borland et al, 1998, Education And Care Away From the Home,SCRE; HMIE and SWSI, 2001, Learning With Care: The Education of Children Looked After Away From Home By Local Authorities, Scottish Executive) :

• Lack of school senior staff 'overview' of the needs of children in care;
• Lack of awareness of important areas where service delivery jobs cross-over ( e.g. Social Work and Education - Social Workers found to be unaware of the qualifications system);
• The need to audit the extent to which children's units are providing an 'educationally-rich' environment;
• Need for clearer emphasis in LA Children's Services Plans on provision and targets;
• The need for improved IAG within the school setting;
• Lack of an 'holistic' examination of the needs of children in care / young care leavers, in relation to risk factors and barriers which impede effective transitions to EET;
• The need for a better understanding of the outcomes of different sub-groups of children in care ( e.g. do those in foster care stand a better chance of not becoming NEET?).

SHARING PRACTICE: SCOTLAND AND THE REST OF THE UK

KEY POINTS

• Connexions and Careers Scotland key worker services- there appears to be potential for Careers Scotland to learn from the experience of Connexions, which is a more established intervention. The projects share some principles in the role of the 'Key Workers', the need for effective IT tracking systems and the need to access the 'hardest-to-reach' target groups.
• Get Ready for Work and the Neighbourhood Support Programme - while very different initiatives, both programmes require to focus on the local service delivery infrastructure, to engage local communities and the hardest-to-reach, by accessing local networks and local service delivery partners.
• The Increased Flexibility Programme in England might also offer some valuable lessons within the context of the recent School / College Review. The early challenges experienced relating to logistics and funding might offer insights into developing the Scottish infrastructure for similar programmes.
• Ireland: School Completion Programme - this initiative is an example of a long-term intervention programme, primarily delivered across the school setting and addressing all aspects of an individual's life - including education; life skills and extra-curricular activities (including hobbies, clubs and mentoring programmes.) It shares some common principles with the philosophy which drives Scotland's ICSs.

4.50 It appears that the early foundation work of Connexions could offer support and guidance to the Careers Scotland key worker service. This extends to the value of IT systems as tracking devises and 'intelligence' bases, the skills of Personal Advisers and access to local networks and communities for both recruiting and working with the hardest to reach groups and mobilising local service delivery. All of these components are common to both Connexions and Careers Scotland , but Connexions has had more time to embed (albeit that there has been insufficient time for outcomes to flow through) thus allowing the Scottish policy arena to learn from early experiences of set-up and delivery.

4.51 There might also be opportunities for the Get Ready for Work Programme to learn from the Neighbourhood Support Fund ( NSF) in England. The NSF - part of the Connexions portfolio - focuses on local support, based on informal learning and self-development for 13-19 year olds. It is delivered across 40 of the most deprived local authority areas in England. It aims to support individuals before they further progress to other support mechanisms / programmes ( e.g. Learning Gateway). The NSF has shown its success in accessing the hard-to-reach groups and in developing informal and non-threatening environments where young people can access support. While the GRfW Programme is a very different intervention programme from the NSF, the local community focus is common to both. Early GRfW studies have indicated the importance of young people engaging with programmes which are delivered within their own communities. The sharing and exchange of practice relating to local support networks and infrastructures could allow the GRfW Programme to build upon its current infrastructure.

4.52 Similarly lessons from the Increased Flexibility Programme in England may provide some valuable insights for curriculum re-engagement projects / alternative curriculum projects in Scotland, especially as the outcomes of the School / College Review begin to move towards school / college delivery programmes.

4.53 The School Completion Programme in Ireland aims to have a significant positive impact on levels of pupil retention in primary and secondary schools and on pupils who successfully complete the 'Senior Cycle' and attain the leaving certificate. The 82 Projects involved encompass school supports, after-school supports holiday supports and out-of-school supports (for those who have left formal the formal school system). This Programme shares some elements with ICSs, although the focus is more clearly positioned on those at risk of leaving school early. There are clearly opportunities for the sharing of practice across these initiatives.