Scottish Government

6. Changes in reconviction rates over time

6.1 The analysis in this section compares two-year reconviction rates for the 1999 cohort of offenders with those for the corresponding cohorts from 1995 to 2001. It also considers changes in reconviction rates over the financial years 1994-95 to 2000-01. The two year reconviction rates up to 2001 are considered to allow a comparison with the most recent data. However, in general, studies of reconviction which offer longer follow up periods are more reliable particularly for some specific offender groups, e.g. sexual offenders, where reconviction is more likely to be longer term.

6.2 When considering trends over time in reconviction rates, it should be borne in mind that these will be affected by changes in criminal justice policy and practice. For example, the increased use of alternatives to prosecution such as fiscal fines in the last 5-10 years will, other things being equal, tend to reduce reconviction rates. In addition, this analysis is based on unadjusted reconviction rates. It is important to note that reconviction rates may also be affected by the characteristics of each cohort group ( e.g. age, sex, index crime, index disposal etc).

6.3 Table 12 shows that over the period from 1995 to 2001, the overall two-year reconviction rate fell marginally from 45 per cent to 44 per cent. This trend was driven by a reduction in the reconviction rate for males (from 47 to 45 per cent). The reconviction rate for females remained fairly constant at around 34 per cent between 1995 and 1999, rising to 36 per cent in 2000 and 2001. This is driven by an increase in the reconviction rate for females aged under 25. The two year reconviction rate for females aged 21 to 25 was 37 per cent in 1995 and rose to 43 per cent in 2001.

6.4 For those with an index disposal of community service, the reconviction rate fell from 50 per cent for the 1995 cohort to 42 per cent for the 1999 cohort and has remained constant at 42 per cent between 1999 and 2001. The corresponding rates for custodial and probationary index disposals fell by 6 percentage points each between 1995 and 1999. These rates subsequently increase by 2 percentage points between 1999 and 2001.

6.5 The two year reconviction rate for those offenders with an index crime of violence decreased from 39 per cent in 1995 to 33 per cent in 1999 and rises slightly to 35 per cent in 2001. The corresponding rates for damage and breach of the peace fell by 3 and 6 percentage points respectively between 1995 and 1999 whilst the rate for drug offences has remained fairly steady across the five year period. The rates for damage and breach of the peace have since marginally increased in 2001. Conversely, the rate for those offenders with an index crime of dishonesty has increased from 50 percent in 1995 to 54 per cent in 1999 and continues to increase to 57 per cent in 2001.

Table 12: Offenders released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995-2001
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by sex and age

Table 13: Offenders released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, 1995-2001
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by index disposal and crime

6.6 The publication 'Building a better Scotland: Spending Proposals 2005-08' set out the Scottish Executive's spending plans and a series of targets for each department over this period. The targets for the Justice Department are intended to create safer and stronger communities and include 'a 2% reduction in reconviction rates in all types of sentence by March 2008'. This will focus on the percentage of offenders discharged from custody or given a non-custodial sentence in a given financial year who are reconvicted within two years. The baseline year will be 2003-04. Table 14 provides this information for 1994-95 to 2000-01 to illustrate the current trends.

6.7 There has been no change in the overall two year reconviction rate in the five year period between 1996-97 and 2000-01 although the rates have fallen and subsequently risen again in the intervening years. The two year reconviction rate has fallen in this period for all types of disposal except probation which has remained fairly constant. For those offenders with a custodial index disposal, the two year reconviction rate has fallen from 64 per cent in 1996-97 to 62 per cent in 2000-01. The corresponding rates for community service orders and monetary penalties have fallen by 4 percentage points and 2 percentage points respectively.

Table 14: Offenders released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence, by financial year 1994-95 - 2000-01.
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years by index disposal and crime