Scottish Government

5. General Analysis of Reconviction Rates

5.1 Overall reconviction rates

Of the 45,245 offenders with an index conviction in 1999, 31 per cent were reconvicted within one year, 42 per cent within two years, 49 per cent within three years and 53 per cent within four years. The proportion of offenders who received a custodial reconviction was 10 per cent within one year rising to 20 per cent after 4 years.

Table 2: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 1 to 4 years, by sex and age

5.2 Reconviction rates by sex and age

Male offenders are more likely to be reconvicted than females, for example 44 per cent of males were reconvicted within two years compared to 34 per cent of females. This difference applied across all age groups. However, for those persons who are reconvicted within two years, there was little difference between the sexes in the average number of reconvictions acquired.

5.3 For male offenders, the reconviction rate decreases with age. 55 per cent of those males aged under 21 were reconvicted within 2 years compared with 32 per cent of those aged over 30. There was less variation in the two year reconviction rate for females, being around 40 per cent for all of those age groups under 30. The exception is for those females aged over 30 where the rate is significantly lower (26 per cent). The above picture is similar for custodial reconvictions although the overall rates are lower with 16 per cent of males and 6 per cent of females receiving a custodial reconviction within 2 years.

Table 3: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by sex, age and number of reconvictions

1. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years

5.4 Reconviction rates by number and type of previous convictions

The likelihood of reconviction increased markedly with the number of previous convictions held by the offender at the time of their index conviction. 77 per cent of those offenders with over 10 previous convictions were reconvicted within two years compared with only 24 per cent of offenders with no previous convictions. Similarly, 69 per cent of those offenders with over 10 previous custodial convictions were given a further custodial conviction within two years compared to 7 per cent of those with no previous custodial convictions.

Table 4: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 1 to 4 years, by number and type of previous convictions ⁽¹⁾

1. Convictions since start of 1989.
2. Convictions resulting in probation or community service.

5.5 For those offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years, the average number of reconvictions rose steadily from 2.1 for those with no previous convictions to 3.3 for those with over 10 previous convictions. The two year reconviction rates are similar by number of previous custodial convictions and number of previous community convictions except where the number of previous convictions is over 10. In this case, 83 per cent of those offenders with over 10 previous custodial convictions are reconvicted within two years compared to 89 per cent of those with over 10 previous community convictions.

5.6 The length of time to reconviction is also likely to be shorter for those offenders with higher numbers of previous convictions. 61 per cent of offenders with over 10 previous convictions are reconvicted within 1 year compared to less than 40 per cent for all other groups. This is further illustrated by Chart 1 in the introduction which shows the reconviction rates in each month of the first four years following the offender's index conviction. The reconviction rates for offenders with over 10 previous convictions are significantly higher than the other groups from month 1.

Table 5: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by number and type of previous convictions ⁽¹⁾ and number of reconvictions

1. Convictions since start of 1989.
2. Convictions resulting in probation or community service.
3. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

5.7 Reconviction rates by index disposal and index crime

Those offenders who were discharged from a custodial sentence (60 per cent) or given probation (58 per cent) were on average more likely to be reconvicted within two years than those given community service (42 per cent) or a monetary penalty (40 per cent). Offenders discharged from custody were much more likely to acquire a custodial reconviction: over two-fifths (43 per cent) were given a further custodial sentence within two years compared to 1 in 10 (10 per cent) of those given a non-custodial sentence. Of those offenders with at least one reconviction within two years, those who were discharged from custody (3.1) or given probation (3.0) have a greater number of reconvictions on average than those given community service (2.3) or a monetary penalty (2.3).

Table 6: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by index disposal and crime in 1999

Table 7: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by index disposal and crime in 1999 and number of reconvictions

1. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.

5.8 The comparison of reconviction rates across disposals is complicated by a number of issues. Pseudo reconviction rates can have a differential effect across different types of disposal and this is discussed further in section 8. In addition the characteristics of offenders receiving different disposals are likely to be different. Indeed, the risk of re-offending is often taken into account at the time of sentence. The issue of offenders characteristics is considered in table 8. Once the age, sex and particularly the number of previous convictions of offenders are taken into account, the differences observed in average reconviction rates for different types of index disposal are found to be less significant. These factors are all strongly associated with the likelihood of reconviction. Table 8 shows that for all types of disposal, and for all sex and age groups, the percentage of offenders with over 10 previous convictions who were reconvicted within two years - typically over 70 per cent - were all fairly similar. This was also broadly the case for offenders with smaller numbers of previous convictions. In other words, the number of previous convictions held by an offender appeared to be the dominant factor in terms of the likelihood of reconviction. The main exception to this pattern was for offenders with no, or only one or two, previous convictions who were given probation. These offenders, particularly those in the younger age groups, had higher reconviction rates than offenders of the same age and with a similar previous conviction history who had other types of index disposal, even compared with those discharged from custody.

Table 8: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by index disposal in 1999, age, sex and number of previous convictions ⁽¹⁾

1. Convictions since start of 1989.

Chart 2a: Percentage of offenders reconvicted within two years of release from prison or sentence in 1999 by index crime in 1999

Chart 2b: Percentage of offenders with a custodial reconviction within two years of release from custody or sentence in 1999 by index crime in 1999

5.9 Those offenders with a sexual crime as their index crime had the lowest reconviction rate on average (17 per cent reconvicted within two years) although this is based on a particularly small number of offenders. Those with a crime of dishonesty as their index crime had the highest reconviction rate (54 per cent reconvicted within two years). Many offenders acquire convictions for a variety of crimes. For example, table 9 shows that, with the exception of those convicted of fraud, between 18 and 35 per cent of offenders with an index conviction in 1999 in the dishonesty crime categories were reconvicted for a violent crime within two years. Conversely, offenders convicted for certain categories of crime are more likely to be reconvicted for the same type of crime: the percentage reconvicted within two years for the same type of crime as the index crime was highest for prostitution offences (50 per cent), shoplifting (41 per cent), housebreaking (31 per cent) and breach of the peace (27 per cent). The likelihood of a custodial reconviction within two years was highest for those with an index crime of housebreaking (41 per cent) and theft OLP (opening lockfast places) (30 per cent).

Table 9: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years for selected crimes, by index crime in 1999

1. Excluding housebreaking.
2. See Annex note 12 for definition.

5.10 Reconviction rate by age at first conviction

The younger an offender is at the time of their first conviction, the more likely they are to be reconvicted. Almost three quarters (73 per cent) of those offenders aged under 16 at their first conviction are reconvicted within two years of their index conviction in 1999. This compares to just 22 per cent of those offenders in the 1999 cohort who were aged over 30 at their first recorded conviction. Of all those offenders in the 1999 cohort, 14 per cent receive a custodial reconviction within two years. This increases significantly to 47 per cent for those who received their first conviction when they were under 16. As noted at point 16 of the annex, convictions for those aged under 16 will generally have involved the more serious types of offence.

Table 10: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 1 to 4 years, by sex, number of previous convictions and age at first conviction ⁽¹⁾

1. Convictions recorded since 1989.

5.11 The age of the offender at the time of their first conviction also affects the number of reconvictions they are likely to accrue in the follow up period. 41 per cent of those offenders aged under 16 at the time of their first conviction have 3 or more reconvictions within two years of their index conviction in 1999. Of those offenders with at least one reconviction, the average number of reconvictions decreases markedly with age at first conviction. Offenders who were under 16 at the time of their first conviction have on average 3.6 reconvictions within two years of their index conviction in 1999, decreasing steadily to 2.0 for those over 30 at the time of their first conviction. The difference is more pronounced for females who have on average 4.7 reconvictions if their age at the time of their first conviction is under 16 and only 1.9 if they are over 30.

5.12 Taking the number of previous convictions into account as well as the offender's age at the first of those convictions, those offenders who are youngest at the time of their first conviction and have the most previous convictions have the highest reconviction rates. For example, 83 per cent of offenders who have over 10 previous convictions and were under 16 at the time of their first conviction are reconvicted within two years of their index conviction in 1999.

Table 11: Persons released from a custodial sentence or given a non-custodial sentence in 1999
Percentage reconvicted within 2 years, by sex, age at first conviction ⁽¹⁾ and number of reconvictions

1. Convictions recorded since 1989.
2. Average for offenders who had at least one reconviction within two years.