APPENDIX 4: TABLES RELATNG TO EAST AYRSHIRE PILOT
Table A4.1: Factors influencing full-time participation in national qualifications in the first year after S4 (results of binary logistic regression model)
| Whole sample | Low attainers |
|---|
Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
|---|
Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade | 0.39 | 0.02 | omitted | |
Standard Grade attainment (point score) | 0.20 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.01 |
School free-meal entitlement (zscore) | -0.07 | 0.03 | -0.07 ns | 0.04 |
Living in low SES area | -0.20 | 0.06 | 0.17 ns | 0.10 |
C1 in 2000 (vs C1b & C2b in 1998-99) | 2.99 | 0.10 | 5.37 | 0.46 |
C2 in 2001 (vs C1b & C2b in 1998-99) | 2.86 | 0.10 | 5.23 | 0.46 |
C3 in 2002 (vs C1b & C2b in 1998-99) | 3.63 | 0.11 | 5.89 | 0.46 |
Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control) | -0.04 ns | 0.09 | 0.47 ns | 0.57 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2000 | 0.15 ns | 0.14 | -0.51 ns | 0.59 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001 | 0.39 | 0.14 | -0.02 ns | 0.59 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002 | 0.24 ns | 0.14 | -0.15 ns | 0.59 |
Reference category | -5.61 | 0.15 | -8.56 | 0.49 |
Notes: Results are shown as log-odds of full-time participation.
Reference category refers to person in the pre- EMA baseline cohorts (C1b&C2b), in the control area, who attended a school with average free-meal entitlement, who lived in an area that was not low SES, and had no credit level awards or points at Standard Grade.
'ns' denotes the factor is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
Table A4.2: Factors influencing full-time participation in national qualifications in the 2nd year after S4 (results of binary logistic regression model)
| Whole sample | Low attainers |
|---|
Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
|---|
Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade | -0.09 | 0.02 | omitted | |
Standard Grade attainment (point score) | 0.24 | 0.01 | 0.24 | 0.02 |
School free-meal entitlement (zscore) | -0.04 | 0.02 | -0.10 | 0.05 |
Living in low SES area | -0.07 ns | 0.04 | -0.08 ns | 0.11 |
C1 in 2001 (vs C1b & C2b in 1999-00) | 0.08 ns | 0.08 | 1.41 | 0.23 |
C2 in 2002 (vs C1b & C2b in 1999-00) | 0.67 | 0.08 | 1.91 | 0.22 |
C3 in 2003 (vs C1b & C2b in 1999-00) | 1.14 | 0.08 | 2.11 | 0.22 |
Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control) | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.66 | 0.22 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001 | -0.03 ns | 0.11 | -0.25 ns | 0.30 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002 | 0.04 ns | 0.11 | -0.33 ns | 0.28 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2003 | -0.06 ns | 0.11 | -0.53 | 0.28 |
Reference category | -5.13 | 0.16 | -6.26 | 0.29 |
Notes: Results are shown as log-odds of full-time participation.
Reference category refers to person in the pre- EMA baseline cohorts (C1b&C2b), in the control area, who attended a school with average free-meal entitlement, who lived in an area that was not low SES, and had no credit level awards or points at Standard Grade.
'ns' denotes the factor is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
Table A4.3: Average number of national courses and units attempted and passed in the first post-compulsory year (mean of all cohorts in pilot and control areas)
| C1b: 1998 | C2b: 1999 | C1: 2000 | C2: 2001 | C3: 2002 |
|---|
Courses attempted |
• pilot area | 1.53 | 1.59 | 2.28 | 2.58 | 3.01 |
• control area | 1.47 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 2.51 | 2.67 |
Courses passed |
• pilot area | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.75 | 2.08 | 2.35 |
• control area | 1.01 | 1.10 | 1.86 | 2.03 | 2.16 |
% courses passed |
• pilot area | 58 | 58 | 74 | 78 | 77 |
• control area | 60 | 62 | 80 | 79 | 78 |
Units attempted |
• pilot area | - | - | 12.95 | 13.95 | 16.93 |
• control area | - | - | 12.11 | 13.39 | 15.93 |
Units passed |
• pilot area | - | - | 9.25 | 11.14 | 12.39 |
• control area | - | - | 9.16 | 10.57 | 11.65 |
% units passed |
• pilot area | - | - | 72 | 78 | 73 |
• control area | - | - | 75 | 78 | 72 |
Sample Size |
• pilot area | 1502 | 1493 | 1405 | 1403 | 1459 |
• control area | 1573 | 1422 | 1417 | 1419 | 1383 |
Note: Units include those taken as component parts of courses, and extra units
Table A4.4: Highest SCQF level of courses attempted in first post-compulsory year
| SCQF level | C1b: 1998 | C2b: 1999 | C1: 2000 | C2: 2001 | C3: 2002 |
|---|
pilot | 6 Higher | 51.0 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 47.1 | 47.8 |
5 Intermediate 2 | | | 8.9 | 12.0 | 15.3 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
None attempted | 49.0 | 49.1 | 37.6 | 38.1 | 34.7 |
N (=100%) | 1502 | 1493 | 1405 | 1403 | 1459 |
control | 6 Higher | 49.8 | 50.4 | 52.2 | 48.8 | 47.4 |
5 Intermediate 2 | | 0.1 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 12.1 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | | 3.7 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
None attempted | 50.2 | 49.5 | 36.3 | 40.7 | 37.7 |
N (=100%) | 1573 | 1422 | 1417 | 1419 | 1383 |
Table A4.5: Highest SCQF level of courses passed in first post-compulsory year
| SCQF level | C1b: 1998 | C2b: 1999 | C1: 2000 | C2: 2001 | C3: 2002 |
|---|
pilot | 6 Higher | 38.9 | 38.6 | 38.3 | 39.8 | 37.3 |
5 Intermediate 2 | 0.1 | | 15.8 | 15.9 | 21.1 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.1 |
3 Access 3 | | | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
None passed | 61.0 | 61.4 | 41.2 | 39.8 | 36.5 |
N (=100%) | 1502 | 1493 | 1405 | 1403 | 1459 |
control | 6 Higher | 38.1 | 39.2 | 45.0 | 40.8 | 40.2 |
5 Intermediate 2 | | | 10.8 | 14.4 | 15.8 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | 0.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 3.7 |
3 Access 3 | | | | | 0.1 |
None passed | 61.9 | 60.8 | 39.4 | 42.5 | 40.1 |
N (=100%) | 1573 | 1422 | 1417 | 1419 | 1383 |
Table A4.6: Factors influencing attainment in national qualifications in the first year after S4 (results of linear regression model)
| 1. Whole sample | 2. Low attainers | 3. Controlling for college entries |
|---|
Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
|---|
Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade | 3.86 | 0.16 | omitted | | 7.81 | 0.16 |
Standard Grade attainment (point score) | 1.34 | 0.08 | 1.70 | 0.07 | 1.48 | 0.07 |
School free-meal entitlement (zscore) | -0.56 | 0.25 | -0.14 ns | 0.32 | -0.84 | 0.25 |
Living in low SES area | -2.20 | 0.54 | 0.84 ns | 0.75 | -2.96 | 0.52 |
C1 in 2000 (vs c1b&c2b in 1998-99) | 2.66 | 0.94 | 18.01 | 1.20 | 27.13 | 0.92 |
C2 in 2001 (vs c1b&c2b in 1998-99) | 7.20 | 0.94 | 19.97 | 1.21 | 33.27 | 0.92 |
C3 in 2002 (vs c1b&c2b in 1998-99) | 9.42 | 0.95 | 23.00 | 1.22 | 39.74 | 0.93 |
Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control) | 1.32 ns | 0.76 | 0.02 ns | 0.92 | -2.26 | 0.73 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2000 | 0.69 ns | 1.33 | -1.01 ns | 1.70 | 0.31 ns | 1.29 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001 | 2.16 ns | 1.33 | 3.16 ns | 1.71 | 4.83 | 1.29 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002 | 2.04 ns | 1.33 | 8.01 | 1.69 | 6.03 | 1.29 |
NQ at college | | | | | -6.42 | 1.01 |
Reference category | -8.04 | 1.14 | -16.93 | 1.16 | -17.80 | 1.11 |
Table A4.7: Average number of national courses and units attempted and passed in the second post-compulsory year (mean of all cohorts in pilot and control areas)
| C1b: 1999 | C2b: 2000 | C1: 2001 | C2: 2002 | C3: 2003 |
|---|
Courses attempted |
• pilot area | 0.85 | 1.02 | 1.07 | 1.19 | 1.14 |
• control area | 0.82 | 0.90 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.09 |
Courses passed |
• pilot area | 0.51 | 0.73 | 0.86 | 0.94 | 0.90 |
• control area | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.87 |
% courses passed |
• pilot area | 60 | 72 | 82 | 80 | 80 |
• control area | 65 | 71 | 79 | 79 | 80 |
Units attempted |
• pilot area | - | - | 5.04 | 6.59 | 7.05 |
• control area | - | - | 4.49 | 5.79 | 6.19 |
Units passed |
• pilot area | - | - | 3.99 | 4.67 | 4.96 |
• control area | - | - | 3.53 | 4.04 | 4.27 |
% units passed |
• pilot area | - | - | 78 | 72 | 72 |
• control area | - | - | 79 | 70 | 70 |
Sample Size |
• pilot area | 1502 | 1493 | 1405 | 1403 | 1459 |
• control areas | 1573 | 1422 | 1417 | 1419 | 1383 |
Note: Units include those taken as component parts of courses, and extra units
Table A4.8: Highest level of course attempted in second post-compulsory year
| SCQF level | C1b: 1999 | C2b: 2000 | C1: 2001 | C2: 2002 | C3: 2003 |
|---|
pilot | 7 CSYS/ Advanced Higher | 10.3 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 15.1 | 13.9 |
6 Higher | 27.2 | 26.0 | 24.1 | 22.4 | 21.5 |
5 Intermediate 2 | | 1.5 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.7 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
3 Access 3 | | | | | |
None attempted | 62.5 | 61.4 | 61.2 | 58.7 | 59.6 |
N (=100%) | 1502 | 1493 | 1405 | 1403 | 1459 |
control | 7 CSYS/Advanced Higher | 9.2 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 11.8 |
6 Higher | 26.9 | 26.0 | 27.6 | 24.9 | 25.3 |
5 Intermediate 2 | | 0.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
3 Access 3 | | | | | |
None attempted | 63.9 | 63.0 | 59.1 | 60.9 | 59.1 |
N (=100%) | 1573 | 1422 | 1417 | 1419 | 1383 |
Table A4.9: Highest level of course passed in second post-compulsory year
| SCQF level | C1b: 1999 | C2b: 2000 | C1: 2001 | C2: 2002 | C3: 2003 |
|---|
pilot | 7 CSYS/Advanced Higher | 6.6 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 11.2 |
6 Higher | 22.1 | 22.7 | 20.8 | 19.4 | 18.8 |
5 Intermediate 2 | | 3.5 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.0 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
None passed | 71.3 | 65.4 | 62.8 | 61.7 | 61.8 |
N (=100%) | 1502 | 1493 | 1405 | 1403 | 1459 |
control | 7 CSYS/Advanced Higher | 6.9 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 8.5 |
6 Higher | 21.7 | 21.7 | 24.3 | 21.7 | 22.4 |
5 Intermediate 2 | | 1.5 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
4 Intermediate 1 | | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
None passed | 71.4 | 68.1 | 62.2 | 64.3 | 62.0 |
N (=100%) | 1573 | 1422 | 1417 | 1419 | 1383 |
Table A4.10: Factors influencing attainment in national qualifications by the end of the 2nd year after S4 (results of linear regression model)
| Whole sample | Low attainers |
|---|
Estimate | SE | Estimate | SE |
|---|
Number of Credit awards at Standard Grade | 11.76 | 0.26 | omitted | |
Standard Grade attainment (point score) | 2.81 | 0.12 | 2.88 | 0.11 |
School free-meal entitlement (zscore) | -1.47 | 0.41 | -0.72 ns | 0.50 |
Living in low SES area | -5.16 | 0.87 | 0.24 ns | 1.17 |
C1 in 2001 (vs c1b&c2b in 1999-00) | 29.10 | 1.51 | 22.17 | 1.88 |
C2 in 2002 (vs c1b&c2b in 1999-00) | 39.79 | 1.50 | 24.55 | 1.89 |
C3 in 2003 (vs c1b&c2b in 1999-00) | 48.08 | 1.52 | 27.23 | 1.90 |
Phase 1 EMA Pilot (vs control) | -0.97 ns | 1.21 | 2.27 ns | 1.43 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2001 | 1.22 ns | 2.13 | -1.60 ns | 2.64 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2002 | 7.09 | 2.13 | 4.00 ns | 2.67 |
Phase 1 EMA pilot in 2003 | 8.64 | 2.13 | 9.20 | 2.63 |
Reference category | -25.85 | 1.83 | -24.02 | 1.81 |
Notes: Results are shown as attainment point score.
Reference category refers to person in the pre- EMA baseline cohorts (C1b&C2b), in the control area, who attended a school with average free-meal entitlement, who lived in an area that was not low SES, and had no credit level awards or points at Standard Grade.
'ns' denotes the factor is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level