Scottish Government

ROADS (SCOTLAND) ACT 1984; ACQUISITION OF LAND (AUTHORISATION PROCEDURE)(SCOTLAND) ACT 1947
M74 SPECIAL ROAD (FULLARTON ROAD TO WEST OF KINGSTON BRIDGE) ORDERS
REPORT OF PUBLIC LOCAL INQUIRY INTO OBJECTIONS
VOLUME 1 : MAIN REPORT

CHAPTER 8 : ECONOMIC IMPACT AND REGENERATION

Summary of case for the Trunk Roads Authority and supporters

8.1 The case for the TRA in terms of economic impact and regeneration is based on: -

• the Simmonds report commissioned by the Trunk Roads Authority (TRA/K/1)
• the EKOS report commissioned by Scottish Enterprise (TRA/U/1)
• the Outline Business Case prepared by the local authorities (TRA/L/7); and
• individual Scottish Enterprise and local authority policies and projects designed to capitalise on the M74C.

The Simmonds report

8.2 The Simmonds report appraised the impacts of the scheme in terms of employment impacts, including their spatial and social distribution issues, and with regeneration, social inclusion and land-use/transport planning integration issues.

8.3 This report is based on a computer based forecasting model using the CSTCS Land Use/Transport Interaction model, which has 4 principal components, namely, a transport model, an economic model, an urban land-use model, and a migration model. The transport model takes inputs which describe activities (different categories of residents and jobs) by zone, for a given year; forecasts travel by car and by public transport; and estimates costs and times of travel between each pair of zones, allowing for congestion caused by the forecast traffic. The economic model forecasts the growth (or decline) of sectors of the economy in the sub-regions of Scotland, with inputs including forecasts of growth in the overall Scottish economy. Forecasts by sector and sub-region are influenced by factors such as costs of transport, consumer demand, and rental values. The urban model forecasts the location of households and jobs within the urban areas of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, locations being strongly influenced by the supply of housing and commercial floor space. The migration model forecasts migration between sub-regions of Scotland. The inputs to this model include job opportunities and housing costs, from the urban model. Job opportunities are a strong incentive to migration; housing costs are generally a weak disincentive.

8.4 Given the 4 components and the inter-action between them, complex possibilities exist for feedback between them. Thus an improvement in transport to generate economic growth might generate additional travel, which in turn may cause increased congestion and worsening transport conditions.

8.5 Assessment of impacts required assumptions on the employment and demographic scenario for Scotland; land use policy inputs; the reference case transport network, without the M74C; and other transport assumptions such as fuel costs. The model was then run to produce the reference case forecast, i.e. a full set of results from running all the model components in sequence to 2030, without the M74C.

8.6 A second set of forecasts was then produced, adding the M74C to the transport inputs, while keeping all other inputs the same as in the reference case. Given the model's linkages from transport to economy, land-use and migration, the results from the M74C test are nearly all different, to some extent, from those of the reference case. These differences define the impact of the M74C.

8.7 Overall the results show that Glasgow and the Clyde Valley gradually gain employment as a result of the M74C, at the expense of other parts of Scotland. About one quarter of the total effect up to 2030 is the initial short-term impact. The remaining impacts are the gradual result of improvements in accessibility and reductions in transport costs affecting the distribution of investment.

8.8 The gradual gains in employment also reflect the longer-term multipliers such as improvements in employment opportunities attracting migrant households which generate further increases in employment. The impacts are small percentages but very significant absolute values. The gain in jobs in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley amounts to some 20,000 jobs by 2030. In percentage terms, this is only +2%. The local authorities confirm that there is an adequate supply of land and premises in the Glasgow/Clyde Valley area to accommodate the demand.

8.9 Since the model is constrained to a fixed economic forecast for Scotland as a whole, the gains in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley must be balanced by losses elsewhere. Displacement from other areas varies between 1% and 2%, with wide differences in the absolute impacts. These losses are greater in the Forth (-8000) and Ayrshire (-3000) areas, which are in closer competition with Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, while lower in the north (-2000). The population impacts are slight, dominated by migration following the changes in employment. The population of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley increases, with a slight loss in population in all other areas. By 2030 Glasgow and the Clyde Valley has gained some 14,000 residents.

8.10 Within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, the predicted employment increases at 2030 are about 11,000 for Glasgow; 4000 for Renfrewshire; and around 3000 each for East Renfrewshire and South Lanarkshire. North Lanarkshire would be expected to gain about 1500 jobs, and East Dunbartonshire less than 500. West Dunbartonshire (-500) and Inverclyde (-1200) are forecast to lose slightly in employment . These impacts are due to the M74C being more useful, in general, to businesses in the west of the conurbation, as a means of travel eastwards to other parts of the conurbation, central and southern Scotland and to England, than it is to businesses in the east of the conurbation - though for the latter, it would be important as a means of better access to Glasgow Airport and the wider world. The negative impacts on West Dunbartonshire and Inverclyde are due to forecasts of increasing congestion around the Erskine Bridge.

8.11 The expression "negative impacts" simply means less positive than in the reference case. In this particular case, the negative impacts for Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire would mean slower growth in employment, rather than absolute decline.

8.12 The positive impacts on the economies of Greater Glasgow and Lanarkshire arise mainly in the service sectors, rather than in manufacturing. The positive impacts on employment would tend to be in non-manual rather than in manual employment. The impact of the M74C in this respect involves additional non-manual jobs (and marginally more manual jobs), not a shift of jobs from manual to non-manual, an impact that will generally occur as slight increases in trends over time, rather than a major step change which might cause greater problems of adjustment.

8.13 The modest level of the population changes are consistent with the finding in CSTCS that households increasingly adjust to changes in workplace by changing their commuting habits rather than by changing their place of residence. These results are consistent with the M74C making a substantial contribution to improving the efficiency of the local economy and the attractiveness of the area for investment, with Lanarkshire's links to Glasgow being sufficiently strong that it tends to gain rather than to lose from these changes. The results already include multiplier effects, which do not necessarily occur in the same district as the initial effect.

Employment Impacts

8.14 A key issue is whether the impacts redistribute employment in Scotland in such a way as to favour the officially Assisted Areas. The areas that gain most in employment, in the South Side of Glasgow and in Renfrewshire, overlap the 20% aid limit Assisted Area. Whilst some of the positive impacts fall in non-Assisted Areas and some of the growth diverted from other parts of Scotland would be drawn away from other Assisted Areas, there would be a significant benefit from the M74C in respect of the distribution of employment within Scotland.

8.15 In regard to the overall employment impacts on Scotland<, the model used the same economic scenario for Scotland in the reference case and the M74C case, with the result that the total levels of employment are very nearly constant in both cases. The overall impacts for Scotland require to be assessed outside the model itself, whilst drawing on the model analysis, particularly of accessibility. The M74C should improve the competitiveness of central Scotland and its ability to attract inward investment, with a positive net impact.

8.16 In regard to regeneration effects, social inclusion and integration, the appraisal took account of the strategies set out in the GCVSP, the conclusion being that the M74C would significantly increase demand for property in many of the development areas identified by the GCVSP, with only a limited negative impact on a smaller number of such areas. On balance, the scheme would positively assist proposals for regeneration and development.

The EKOS Report

8.17 This report, commissioned by Scottish Enterprise to produce an up-to-date economic appraisal of the M74C, sets out the overall economic development case for the project and highlights the key benefits for Scotland in general in terms of national economic policy, and the Glasgow metropolitan region in particular. It covers the overarching economic rationale, place competitiveness, and support for other key initiatives.

8.18 Policies of both the UK Government and the Scottish Executive seek to achieve high and stable levels of growth and employment, ensuring that all the regions of the UK perform to their full economic potential. Currently Scotland under-performs against the UK; and within Scotland, the West of Scotland under performs against both the UK and Scotland as a whole in terms of economic activity rates. Economic activity rates within areas such as Edinburgh, and Perth and Kinross are over 10% higher than Glasgow, which remains the area with the lowest level of economic activity.

8.19 The M74C and related regeneration initiatives should increase Scotland's economic growth by raising economic activity rates in the west of Scotland, reducing the likelihood of overheating of labour and development markets in the east. In the national context, the project is a key piece of infrastructure necessary to maximise future growth and prosperity for both the Glasgow city/region and Scotland as a whole.

8.20 SE support for the M74C is based on improving the West of Scotland's economic and business competitiveness, releasing a range of new development opportunities necessary to support future economic growth, and the project being a specific piece of infrastructure necessary to support SE priority projects.

8.21 In the event of the M74C not proceeding, there is likely to be not only a loss of new investment but also the potential future loss of existing investment, as other city regions in the UK continue to invest in their transport infrastructure and improve their competitive position.

8.22 Labour markets, business locations, accessibility to customers, housing choices, tourism, the shape, density and pattern of urban areas influence and are influenced by the availability, price and speed of transport links. The M74C will support the place competitiveness of the west of Scotland by improving business competitiveness. There are around 50,000 businesses and one million workers in the Glasgow metropolitan area who will have access to an improved transport network which will also support the attraction and retention of staff, movement of goods and people, and improve reliability and efficiency. For many businesses, it is not the direct cost of transport, but the unreliability of the network that causes problems.

8.23 Economic sustainability and growth are essential to provide prosperity and quality of life for the people who live and work in the west of Scotland. The Simmonds Report forecasts a population increase of more than 13,500 by 2030 as a result of the project, increasing the total household income of the Greater Glasgow/Lanarkshire area by nearly £275 million per year.

8.24 Development of sites which will either be released or made more attractive by the M74C is a key benefit of the project. This will have a significant impact on the provision and availability of business land and property, a pre-requisite of economic growth.

8.25 The M74C runs through some of the poorest areas in Scotland with economic activity levels well below the UK and Scottish average. The project will support the regeneration of these areas through a process of physical renewal, integrated with other regeneration activity.

8.26 In particular, the M74C should lead to the following:

• reduction of around 600 hectares of vacant, derelict and contaminated land;
• increase in land and property values to help address market failure constraints;
• improved viability of future property development, through making development of key sites more attractive to the private sector thereby removing the need for higher levels of public support;
• development of key sites in areas of deprivation for future economic activity;
• development of 660,000m ² of business space, which will support 25,000 (gross) new jobs.

8.27 In addition, the project will promote tourism, the international image of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley area, and the economy and efficiency of Glasgow Airport.

8.28 Support is also drawn from the Cities Review (TRA/L/2), which concludes that the cities are at the centre of Scotland's economic growth and dynamism and that, whilst each is unique and individual, the cities are central to the regions that surround them and have a key role to play in the growth and dynamism of those regions.

8.29 The Glasgow city/region economy is the largest contributor to the economic well being of Scotland, and its absolute and relative economic performance is vital to Scotland. The M74C would support and facilitate its growth and the overall place competitiveness of Scotland.

Scottish Enterprise Key Initiatives

8.30 The M74C would support a number of key SE projects, including the Clyde Waterfront Regeneration Plan; the Clyde Gateway and East End Regeneration; the development of Glasgow Airport; and the Glasgow Science Zone. It is seen as a vital prerequisite to maximise the potential for the regeneration of the Clyde Gateway and the East End Regeneration Route.

Outline Business Case

8.31 The Outline Business Case submitted to the Scottish Executive in September 2000 indicated that the M74C would "provide the improved accessibility needed to unlock the potential for economic development and regeneration of vacant and under-used sites along the south side of the River Clyde from Cambuslang in the east through to the airport and further west" (OBC, page 17).

8.32 The OBC identified the location, scale, and employment potential of 17 strategic sites which were either directly accessible to, or in close proximity to the M74/M8 corridor, of which 7 are wholly/partly in Glasgow. These included sites which were 'safeguarded' as single user inward investment sites, and sites which were identified as strategic industrial locations within the 1997-99 Western Scotland objective 2 programme. The OBC suggested that if all of these sites were fully developed, at accepted employment densities, they could accommodate 42,000 jobs.

8.33 The OBC also recognised that while only one of these sites (Cambuslang Investment Park) was within the immediate vicinity of the M74, many of the other sites would benefit from improved accessibility/journey times through relieving congestion on the existing motorway network in the city. This is particularly the case with the key sites on the west side of the city which are constrained by congestion problems on the Kingston Bridge/Charing Cross section of the M8.

8.34 The OBC indicated that the M74C would unlock substantial economic development potential within local areas accessible to the motorway itself. Within a 1.5 km corridor of the road line there were approximately 114 ha of land available for industrial or business use, excluding Cambuslang Investment Park. If fully developed, at normal employment densities, these sites could accommodate a further 12,000 jobs. (OBC, page 21-22). The sites are concentrated in key development clusters as follows:

• Cambuslang Investment Park
• Clydesmill (Westburn) (S Lanarkshire)
• Farme Cross (S Lanarkshire)
• Dalmarnock (Glasgow)
• Gorbals/Oatlands (Glasgow)
• Tradeston (Glasgow)

Regional Regeneration Context

8.35 The regional regeneration context of the M74 Completion scheme is set out in 2 key regional policy documents, namely, the GCVSP and ' Metropolitan Glasgow - a Vision for the Glasgow City Region'.

8.36 The objectives of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan (Part 4, page 8, para 4.1) include:

• increasing economic competitiveness
• promoting greater social inclusion and integration
• sustaining and enhancing the natural and built environment
• integrating land use and transportation.

8.37 The means of achieving these objectives include:

• strengthening communities by focusing new development at appropriate locations within existing urban and rural settlements; and
• promoting a corridor of growth which promotes new economic development in locations which are well linked to areas of social need, and better related to the transport network.

8.38 The GCVSP identifies gaps in the strategic road network as being a major constraint on the competitiveness of the metropolitan area. The M74C is specifically identified as a crucial link which "will improve access to and from Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire and Glasgow Airport, through Glasgow City Centre to Lanarkshire and the national motorway network of the M74/M6 (GCVSP, Part 8, page 44, para 8.21). The M74C is also seen as a key component of the Clyde Gateway Initiative where it will contribute to "…a new focus of economic development based upon the key position of the Clyde Gateway in the existing and proposed transport network." (Structure Plan, part 7, page 32, para 7.32)

8.39 The Scottish Executive Review Of Scotland's Cities ( Building Better Cities, Scottish Executive, 2003) suggests that cities are at the centre of Scotland's economic growth and dynamism, and that efficient and effective transport connectivity are key factors in the success of cities. It concludes "…transport is central to the economic social and environmental future of Scotland's cities…" (Review of Scotland's Cities - The Analysis, page 159). In its presentation to the Cities Review 'Sounding Board', GCC identified the M74C as one of the main infrastructure 'gaps' in the city.

8.40 The Cities Review required each of Scotland's 6 cities to prepare, and submit to the Scottish Executive for approval, long term visions for the future of their city-region areas. The vision statement for Glasgow ( Metropolitan Glasgow - Our Vision For the Glasgow City region) was approved by a wide variety of bodies including the 8 local authorities within the Clyde Valley Structure Plan area, Scottish Enterprise, the Greater Glasgow Health Board, Jobcentre Plus, and the Glasgow Chamber of Commerce (May 2003), and was subsequently endorsed by the Scottish Executive in June 2003. The Clyde Valley Community Planning Partnership has now been established to oversee its implementation

8.41 The report identifies 11 key regeneration projects and programmes where "successful delivery will make a real contribution to our overall social and economic prospects…(and which) …will unlock substantial areas of land for new business and residential development. They will improve our connectivity….offer potential for new business development and investment …and…for major labour market and re-connection programmes. (page 20)

8.42 The M74C and the Clyde Gateway are both identified as key regeneration projects which offer the potential to unlock substantial new residential and business development opportunities along the 5 mile corridor between Cambuslang and the Gorbals, with potential through the proposed linkages between the M74/the proposed East End Regeneration Route/M8 to secure major regeneration benefits for the East End of Glasgow as a whole. The realisation of these opportunities is however crucially dependent on the M74C proceeding.

The Local Regeneration Context

8.43 The 3 councils provided extensive detailed evidence relating to current development constraints, regeneration potential, economic policies and prospects for the respective administrative areas. In each area, economic forums comprising representatives of local business and industry, Scottish Enterprise and other agencies have been established. These forums have each devised economic development strategies based on the M74 completion as an essential infrastructure requirement. The project was necessary to promote the take up of industrial sites and premises; the regeneration of vacant, derelict and contaminated land; social inclusion initiatives; and the improvement of jobs potential through skills training programmes. The strategies were wholly consistent with national, strategic and local economic and land use plans and policies.

8.44 The information supplied by the councils is too detailed to be summarised in the text of this report. The various precognitions and documents produced may be referred to for their terms. Much of this information formed the basis on which the OBC, the Simmonds Report, and the EKOS Report were prepared.

8.45 Within Glasgow, projects of particular note are the Clyde Gateway, the East End Regeneration Route, the Clyde Waterfront project, Social Inclusion Partnerships in the Gorbals and East End, and the development of local labour training and recruitment programmes to ensure a workforce trained to capitalise on the demands of inward investment is in place.

8.46 Within South Lanarkshire, the economic strategy recognises the industrial and business decline in Rutherglen and Cambuslang, and regeneration initiatives, heavily dependent on the M74C, are in place for these communities. The Clyde Gateway project - a Metropolitan Flagship Initiative - also covers Dalmarnock Trading Estate, Shawfield and the Farme Cross areas of South Lanarkshire, and the initiative as a whole will benefit Rutherglen and Cambuslang and indeed a wider area. The Clydesmill Strategic Employment Site, where the council has purchased 6ha of land and has invested £4m in site servicing, would also benefit significantly from the M74C and may be a suitable site for relocation of a number of businesses on the line of the motorway extension.

8.47 Within Renfrewshire, the Renfrewshire Economic Strategy highlights regeneration along the River Clyde from the city centre westwards, and the promotion of Glasgow Airport and the surrounding area. RC has an Economic Development Operating Plan, incorporating a 3 year rolling programme of activity focussing on place competitiveness, an attractive environment for inward investment, and ensuring that Renfrewshire residents are best placed to benefit from increased economic activity. Key development sites include Hillington Business Park, Phoenix Linwood, Inchinnan, and Erskine.

Impact on existing businesses/relocation

8.48 The number of businesses on the route of the M74C is estimated at 186, involving 2,500 - 3,000 employees. The TRA does not appear to have spoken directly with the businesses concerned and has assumed that all businesses would relocate. No account has been taken of businesses choosing or being forced to cease trading. Again, little has been done to ascertain the practicalities of relocation in terms of costs and timescales.

8.49 A dedicated M74 Relocation Team comprising staff from the three councils and under the control of GCC has been established to assist with business relocation, and a sum of £900,000 has been set aside to finance feasibility studies, business plans and the like. The Valuation Agency is involved in negotiating compensation and early voluntary acquisition is being actively promoted.

The Case for JAM74/FOE

8.50 The objectors' case is based on serious doubts as to the economic benefits and regeneration opportunities claimed by the TRA and proponents of the M74C. The doubts stem from criticism of the Simmonds and EKOS reports; the findings of the Commons Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) Report on Transport and the Economy (document JAG/15, 1999); and a number of largely Scottish based academic research papers.

8.51 The objectors argue that the Simmonds report does not consider factors beyond central Scotland, and gives limited consideration to land use and transport changes elsewhere in Scotland and to the labour market. Assumptions used are too simplistic. Forecasting growth is not the issue. It is the distribution of that growth which is more important and less certain. The EKOS report lists land availability without commenting on likely uptake; expressly indicates that displacement is outwith its remit; and is all but silent on the issue of demand. The predictions of job growth in both reports are highly suspect.

8.52 The SACTRA report on Transport and the Economy was the culmination of a 3 year inquiry chaired by Eileen Mackay CB into claims of economic benefit from road schemes. The report notes (summary, page 17, paragraph 11) that the contribution of road construction to sustainable economic growth of a mature economy, with well developed transport systems, is likely to be modest. It states that the results of studies of the economic impact of completed transport projects " do not offer convincing general evidence of the size, nature or direction of local economic impacts". The report goes on to state that " Our studies underline the conclusion that generalisations about the effects of transport on the economy are subject to strong dependence on specific local circumstances and conditions."

8.53 The SACTRA report recommends that a more rigorous approach to forecasting the economic benefits of transport schemes is adopted, in the form of an Economic Impact Report. This has been widely accepted and has established the requirement for such reports for new transport schemes in England and Wales, where regeneration benefits are claimed. Guidance on the preparation of these reports has been published (document JAG/3). It requires a range of options to be considered, with forecasts covering numbers of jobs and types of economic activity, as well as assessment of uncertainty and risk.

8.54 As regards the M74C, the objectors consider that there are 3 areas where the approach commended in the SACTRA report and the resulting guidance can assist, namely, forecasting new economic activity and job creation; reduction in journey times increasing competitiveness; and regeneration of vacant, derelict and contaminated land along the route corridor.

8.55 On the first issue, while the objectors accept that a new road could lead to job creation and inward investment, none of this is guaranteed. The SACTRA report highlighted the two way road effect, where the construction of a new road could improve accessibility so that job creation and investment is drawn away from the area where the road construction takes place to a more favourably located area, reducing local employment and competitiveness to the advantage of places elsewhere. The extent to which this might happen depends on a number of factors such as the extent of competition in the transport sectors, and land and labour markets. In its guidance on the preparation of Economic Impact Reports, the Department of Transport highlights 4 questions to be addressed which deal with the regeneration area being accessed by an external labour force; better access to jobs elsewhere increasing local wage costs; better access to retail facilities elsewhere leading to closures in the regeneration area; and identification of businesses vulnerable to external competition. The objectors consider that the TRA does not appear to have taken these possibilities into account.

8.56 While temporary jobs would be created during construction, the cost per job would be high, and other public spending would bring greater benefit. Research in Germany suggests that road construction as a job creator is inferior to rail infrastructure, while in the UK rail projects provide better value for money than road building. Other academic research indicates support for the SACTRA conclusion that economic benefits do not automatically follow from new road building, arising where, unlike Glasgow, existing infrastructure is poor and where the new road is an integral part of wider economic policy. Lower, but better targeted spending, could boost GDP more than increased transport spending. Links between road building and economic growth are weak or non-existent, depending on the particular circumstances.

8.57 Wider sourcing and marketing, while of benefit to individual firms, might not lead to growth in the national economy but simply a redistribution of economic activity. Research suggests that the claim by proponents of the M74C that M8 congestion handicaps business in the west of Scotland is over-stated. There is no evidence that Scottish industry pays more for road transport on account of its peripheral location.

8.58 Investment in rail infrastructure should feature prominently in peripheral regions, along with road pricing which is seen as a more appropriate solution than road building. While academic research suggests that road construction to relieve bottlenecks holding back rapid economic expansion may bring benefits, this is not the situation in relation to the M74C. Investing in infrastructure in conditions of low economic growth, where infrastructure is already in place, is unlikely to boost economic activity. If the M8 is a bottleneck, other measures such as road pricing should be the initial response.

8.59 While the possibility of redistribution of economic activity away from congested areas exists, the conditions necessary for this to happen are not in place. The result is likely to be that activity will be centralised, benefiting areas least in need of economic expansion. While surveys indicate that road infrastructure has a greater impact on inward investment than for investment by Scottish firms, it is endogenous firms which should be supported for sustainable employment. Improved road access to Glasgow airport is at odds with the Scottish Executive's objective of promoting rail access to the airport.

8.60 Jobs, and particularly jobs for socially excluded communities, can be created by other methods than by building the M74C. Better management of existing road capacity by, say, electronic road pricing and more use of public transport could be bolstered by application of road toll revenues to promote public transport. While travel to work times can be an obstacle to employment, research suggests socio-economic factors such as gender, dependent children, and education are more influential in establishing travel times and employment opportunities than public transport, accessibility, and private transport. Two out of 5 job seekers find lack of transport a barrier to obtaining employment, while the average distance to work for employees on low incomes is 3 miles compared to 8 miles for the rest of the working population. Further research on this subject is necessary but the evidence suggests that a full multi-modal exercise should have taken place before the Orders were promoted, if Scottish Executive policies on environmental justice and social inclusion were to be followed. Such a study would have been unlikely to support the M74C.

8.61 As regards journey times and competitiveness, it is well established that induced traffic from new road construction can reduce or eliminate projected journey time savings. There is also the issue of suppressed demand taking up any spare road space that is created. It is not clear whether the TRA has taken account of such influences. A White Paper published by the Department of Transport in 2003 acknowledged the danger of benefits being eroded over time, and the need to lock in such benefits through traffic management measures such as ramp metering and congestion charging. This matter is also considered in the CSTCS (see paragraph 2.29 above). No such measures have been proposed for the M74C. Experience of new road construction at the M25 and in West Yorkshire, where no measures were introduced, demonstrate the point.

8.62 The SACTRA investigation also found that journey time reliability could be as important as time savings. Time savings and competitiveness should also be assessed in the wider context. Land and labour market conditions coupled with reduced congestion might encourage development at motorway junctions elsewhere in central Scotland, making Glasgow and the surrounding area less competitive. Land and labour factors are generally more significant than transport costs with the result that the impact of time savings would likely to be of a low order. In any event, economic benefits based on time savings are questionable. Logistic savings from past road building should be seen as a one off benefit arising from development of the network rather than the upgrading of individual links. The TRA has not considered other options.

8.63 As regards reclamation of vacant, derelict, or contaminated land, this could be undertaken at any time and the M74C is not a prerequisite. The TRA claim in regard to the M74C promoting the reclamation of vacant, derelict, and contaminated land has been overstated. Much of the land affected is unattractive, with little prospect of redevelopment.

8.64 The benefits of the M74C for the deprived and excluded communities is also debatable, given the two way road effect, and job opportunities being available to people from other areas. Education and skills training are regarded as more important factors in securing employment. People without access to cars will remain disadvantaged, particularly those in peripheral estates poorly served by public transport. The focus should be on improving access to activities that have most impact on life chances such as access to work, learning and healthcare. Poor communities not only lack good transport services but also suffer from the negative impacts of transport related pollution, community severance, and noise. This represents environmental injustice.

8.65 The objectors argue that a road project on its own such as the M74C is not sustainable. The Scottish Executive Guidance on Local Transport Strategies (2000) advised that, for a road transport project to be justified on economic development grounds, it needs to be demonstrated that devoting resources to the transport project would represent a more cost-effective means of developing the local economy than the use of other existing policy instruments. The Scottish Executive has failed to follow its own guidance. There should be a sustainable UK transport strategy, with funding from fuel tax and road charging, designed to reduce overall traffic levels while promoting economic growth and other policy objectives. An integrated policy package would give confidence to private investors, whereas the M74C on its own will not.

8.66 Support for a move in this direction is drawn from recent developments in San Francisco and Portland, Oregon, where the removal of freeways both at grade and grade separation has brought about significant transport improvements and major economic regeneration.

The Case for SAPT

8.67 The SAPT did not lead any witness on this topic, choosing to rely on testing the TRA evidence through cross-examination. There was concern at the wide variations in the forecasts of jobs growth, the suggestion being that they were over optimistic. The Simmonds report was closely examined as to what had and had not been included in the modelling exercise. While the TRA claimed that the exercise had been carried out in accordance with "best practice", no audit of similar exercises had been undertaken to assess the validity of the methodology and results. While the model took account of factors such as changes in fuel costs, and walking and cycling as modes of transport, it did not take account of the costs of pollution and congestion, nor of factors such as the increase in people working from home. The suggestion was that the exercise had been designed to produce a certain result.

8.68 The TRA claim that the M74C is a key piece of infrastructure was challenged, given other constraints such as water and drainage capacities and the extent of vacant, derelict, and contaminated land, much of which appeared in the industrial land supply. While no estimates of costs for remediation of all sites affected were available, SE estimates for Clyde Gateway remediation were in the region of £50 million. The application of the M74C acquisition costs, estimated at £140 million, to address contaminated land would be a better use of public money. Many of the sites in the land supply are located some distance from the motorway network and public transport. The Cities Review (TRAL/2 at page 165) states "A poorly sited development, largely dependent on car access, will lock in problems for the long term".

8.69 Jobs would be generated irrespective of the M74C. Indeed, jobs may be lost to other parts of the central belt as a result of the M74C. While the TRA claims that SE support for flagship initiatives such as Clyde Gateway and the Waterfront Project depend on the M74C, in all likelihood the local authorities would deliver some form of package for the regeneration areas. The EKOS report (page 5) indicates that Glasgow City has out performed other areas and that has been done without the M74C. In general, job seekers do not have access to cars, hence there should be more investment in public transport.

The Case for Dr M Hersh

8.70 Dr Hersh argued that there is little evidence on the ground of any economic regeneration by the 3 councils and SE. The M74C is not needed to regenerate communities that have been largely destroyed by the threat of the new road. The TRA claim that no local shops are to be demolished is irrelevant. The fact is that demolition has already taken place, and the evidence is to be found in streets such as Aikenhead Road and Rutherglen Road.