OPERATION OF POWER TO MODIFY LOCAL CONNECTION PROVISIONS
Annex E: Projections by local authority
Table E1
Base Projection
No. of Priority Need Households referred to another local authority, 2002-2012
| 2002 | 2007 | 2012 | % change |
Scotland | 262 | 278 | 294 | 12% |
Aberdeen City | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5% |
Aberdeenshire | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19% |
Angus | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1% |
Argyll & Bute | 3 | 3 | 4 | 20% |
Clackmannanshire | 2 | 2 | 2 | 25% |
Dumfries & Galloway | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18% |
Dundee City | 3 | 3 | 3 | -14% |
East Ayrshire | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12% |
East Dunbartonshire | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17% |
East Lothian | 11 | 12 | 14 | 26% |
East Renfrewshire | 3 | 3 | 4 | 29% |
Edinburgh (City of) | 37 | 40 | 42 | 14% |
Eilean Siar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Fife | 7 | 8 | 8 | 21% |
Glasgow City | 94 | 98 | 103 | 10% |
Highland | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13% |
Inverclyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | -26% |
Midlothian | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25% |
Moray | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4% |
North Ayrshire | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8% |
North Lanarkshire | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10% |
Orkney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Perth & Kinross | 10 | 10 | 10 | 4% |
Renfrewshire | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8% |
Scottish Borders | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17% |
Shetland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
South Ayrshire | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9% |
South Lanarkshire | 23 | 25 | 26 | 15% |
Stirling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
West Dunbartonshire | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9% |
West Lothian | 2 | 2 | 3 | 36% |
Source: Tribal HCH Estimates
Table E1
Phase Method 1: Big Bang
No. of Priority Need Households referred to another local authority, 2002-2012
| 2002 | 2007 | 2012 | % change |
Scotland | 352 | 375 | 399 | 13% |
Aberdeen City | 13 | 13 | 13 | 6% |
Aberdeenshire | 9 | 10 | 11 | 20% |
Angus | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2% |
Argyll & Bute | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19% |
Clackmannanshire | 3 | 4 | 4 | 25% |
Dumfries & Galloway | 6 | 7 | 7 | 18% |
Dundee City | 4 | 3 | 3 | -11% |
East Ayrshire | 6 | 6 | 6 | 13% |
East Dunbartonshire | 6 | 7 | 8 | 18% |
East Lothian | 18 | 20 | 22 | 26% |
East Renfrewshire | 3 | 3 | 4 | 29% |
Edinburgh (City of) | 59 | 63 | 67 | 15% |
Eilean Siar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Fife | 12 | 13 | 15 | 21% |
Glasgow City | 109 | 114 | 120 | 10% |
Highland | 7 | 8 | 8 | 15% |
Inverclyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | -26% |
Midlothian | 2 | 2 | 3 | 25% |
Moray | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5% |
North Ayrshire | 6 | 6 | 7 | 12% |
North Lanarkshire | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11% |
Orkney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Perth & Kinross | 11 | 12 | 12 | 6% |
Renfrewshire | 4 | 5 | 5 | 9% |
Scottish Borders | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17% |
Shetland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
South Ayrshire | 5 | 5 | 6 | 10% |
South Lanarkshire | 30 | 32 | 35 | 16% |
Stirling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
West Dunbartonshire | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9% |
West Lothian | 3 | 4 | 4 | 36% |
Source: Tribal HCH Estimates
Table E1
Phase Method 2: Two Stages
No. of Priority Need Households referred to another local authority, 2002-2012
| 2002 | 2007 | 2012 | % change |
Scotland | 262 | 322 | 399 | 52% |
Aberdeen City | 9 | 11 | 13 | 48% |
Aberdeenshire | 5 | 8 | 11 | 114% |
Angus | 3 | 3 | 4 | 29% |
Argyll & Bute | 3 | 4 | 4 | 48% |
Clackmannanshire | 2 | 3 | 4 | 114% |
Dumfries & Galloway | 3 | 5 | 7 | 147% |
Dundee City | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8% |
East Ayrshire | 3 | 4 | 6 | 116% |
East Dunbartonshire | 4 | 6 | 8 | 89% |
East Lothian | 11 | 16 | 22 | 102% |
East Renfrewshire | 3 | 3 | 4 | 29% |
Edinburgh (City of) | 37 | 50 | 67 | 82% |
Eilean Siar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Fife | 7 | 11 | 15 | 110% |
Glasgow City | 94 | 104 | 120 | 28% |
Highland | 5 | 7 | 8 | 69% |
Inverclyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | -26% |
Midlothian | 1 | 2 | 3 | 151% |
Moray | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24% |
North Ayrshire | 4 | 5 | 7 | 64% |
North Lanarkshire | 9 | 10 | 12 | 30% |
Orkney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Perth & Kinross | 10 | 11 | 12 | 21% |
Renfrewshire | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22% |
Scottish Borders | 2 | 3 | 3 | 60% |
Shetland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
South Ayrshire | 2 | 4 | 6 | 181% |
South Lanarkshire | 23 | 28 | 35 | 51% |
Stirling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
West Dunbartonshire | 9 | 10 | 11 | 19% |
West Lothian | 2 | 3 | 4 | 103% |
Source: Tribal HCH Estimates
Table E1
Phase Method 3: Gradual Phasing
No. of Priority Need Households referred to another local authority, 2002-2012
| 2002 | 2007 | 2012 | % change |
Scotland | 262 | 319 | 399 | 52% |
Aberdeen City | 9 | 11 | 13 | 48% |
Aberdeenshire | 5 | 7 | 11 | 114% |
Angus | 3 | 3 | 4 | 29% |
Argyll & Bute | 3 | 4 | 4 | 48% |
Clackmannanshire | 2 | 3 | 4 | 114% |
Dumfries & Galloway | 3 | 5 | 7 | 147% |
Dundee City | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8% |
East Ayrshire | 3 | 4 | 6 | 116% |
East Dunbartonshire | 4 | 5 | 8 | 89% |
East Lothian | 11 | 15 | 22 | 102% |
East Renfrewshire | 3 | 3 | 4 | 29% |
Edinburgh (City of) | 37 | 50 | 67 | 82% |
Eilean Siar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Fife | 7 | 10 | 15 | 110% |
Glasgow City | 94 | 106 | 120 | 28% |
Highland | 5 | 6 | 8 | 69% |
Inverclyde | 1 | 1 | 1 | -26% |
Midlothian | 1 | 2 | 3 | 151% |
Moray | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24% |
North Ayrshire | 4 | 5 | 7 | 64% |
North Lanarkshire | 9 | 10 | 12 | 30% |
Orkney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Perth & Kinross | 10 | 11 | 12 | 21% |
Renfrewshire | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22% |
Scottish Borders | 2 | 3 | 3 | 60% |
Shetland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
South Ayrshire | 2 | 3 | 6 | 181% |
South Lanarkshire | 23 | 28 | 35 | 51% |
Stirling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
West Dunbartonshire | 9 | 10 | 11 | 19% |
West Lothian | 2 | 3 | 4 | 103% |
Source: Tribal HCH Estimates