Scottish Government

6 The Disadvantaged

In this Section, we look more closely at patterns of labour market entry of less advantaged young people and at those whose entry into the labour market may be somewhat difficult. We begin by highlighting patterns of disadvantage and examining the first destinations of less advantaged young people and then focus directly on the characteristics of young people who spent time not in employment, education and training (NEET). The discussion of NEET leads to a fuller examination of early career turbulence and of the extent to which initial problems are overcome or lead to more entrenched difficulties. The chapter concludes with a brief overview of the more precarious sectors of the labour market.

7.1 Types of disadvantage and labour market entry

For young people, labour market disadvantages can be associated with family circumstances which are frequently linked to patterns of educational attainment and experience. In combination with family or educational disadvantage or independent of them, there can also be an association between weak career management skills and patterns of labour market entry (Furlong et al, 2003). We begin this section by summarising patterns of disadvantage before looking at the ways in which these are linked to labour market entry.

While levels of parental unemployment were close to the national average (at around 6%), for just over one in ten young people the parent with the highest skilled occupation worked in a routine or semi-routine capacity (Table 7.1). Fewer than one in five young people lived in a Social Inclusion Partnership area (SIP) during S4. Whereas the vast majority of young people said that their parents often urged them to work hard at school, encouraged them in their future plans or discussed their plans with them, more than one in ten young people failed to receive regular encouragement. In terms of educational attainments, three in ten young people either had no Standard Grades or had passes at below level 2. A minority of young people showed signs of educational disaffection in that they had truanted regularly or had been suspended or expelled from school; males being twice as likely as females to have been expelled or suspended. In terms of personal motivation and career management, around 17% of males and 14% of females can be described as lacking direction in that they had little idea of the career that they wanted and agreed that they would just wait to see where they ended up.

Table 7-1 Indicators of disadvantage, by gender

More than a third of young people were faced with two categories of disadvantage, in other words, they were disadvantaged by family circumstances and educational experiences, by family and career management or by educational experiences and career management. A small group of young people (around 5%) were faced with three categories of disadvantage. The strongest linkage was between family circumstances and educational experiences: just over a third (35%) of those who came from less advantaged families were disadvantaged educationally. Poor career management was only weakly associated with either family disadvantage (15%) or educational disadvantage (17%).

The stage at which young people left school was affected by family circumstances and educational experiences (Table 7.2). In particular, those who left school before S5 or who were Christmas leavers were more likely than later leavers to have been regular truants, to have been suspended or expelled from school or to have no Standard Grades at 1-2. They were also more likely to have parents in the lowest social class, live in a SIP, lack parental encouragement and to suffer from multiple disadvantages. Those who lacked a sense of direction were just as likely to remain in education as to leave.

Table 7-2 Indicators of disadvantage, by stage of leaving school

With the most disadvantaged groups, those with poor educational attainments and those who regularly played truant or who were suspended or expelled from school being most likely to have left school at the earliest stage, it was these young people who were least likely to be in education and most likely to be in employment at the time of the survey (Table 7.3). Levels of unemployment were highest among those with three categories of disadvantage, those who played truant regularly or who were expelled or suspended and those without Standard Grades at levels 1 and 2. Rates of unemployment were also very high among those who lived in a SIP, had a parent who was unemployed or who was in the lowest social class.

Table 7-3 Indicators of disadvantage, by current status

7.2 NEET

With a commitment to increase the proportion of young people who remain in education beyond the age of 16 and to increase participation in Higher Education, minimum age school-leaving has become a minority experience. In Scotland more than 50% of young people now enter Higher Education and less than three in ten leave school at the minimum age. Among minimum aged leavers, young people from disadvantaged families and those with poor educational qualifications are heavily represented and there is a linkage between early leaving, difficult transitions to work, unemployment and precarious positions in the labour market (Furlong et al, 2003; Howieson, 2003). Changes in benefit regulations in the 1980s removed the possibility of early school-leavers being officially classified as unemployed and various policies served to encourage those who did leave to enter jobs that provided training or government supported training programmes. Despite the non-availability of benefits to help support young people who left school early, shortages of suitable jobs and training places mean that there are always a group of people who are not in education, employment or training (commonly referred to as NEET).

NEET as a category is quite heterogeneous. It includes a proportion of young people who are available for work and are actively seeking employment: a group that fits the ILO definition of unemployment. Also included are those who are not available or not seeking work. Groups such as the long-term sick or disabled or those with responsibilities for the care of children or relatives may not be available for work. Those who are not seeking work may be pursuing other interests, resting, developing artistic skills in an unpaid capacity or taking time to travel. The usefulness of NEET as a category is compromised through the ways in which disadvantaged people who occupy different positions in relation to the labour market are combined with more privileged young people who are able to exercise a significant degree of choice about the ways in which they manage their lives.

Estimates of the size of NEET are partly dependent on the age group in question and partly accounted for by the state of the local labour market. Researchers also use both static measures of NEET (the proportion who are NEET at a point in time) and cumulative measures (those who are NEET at any point within a given time span or for a minimum period over a period of time) and have defined membership in different ways. The first research to focus on NEET as a distinct category was Istance and colleagues and they used the term Status A (later changing it to Status Zero) to refer to a group of people who were not covered by any of the main categories of labour market status (employment, education or training). For Istance and colleagues Status Zero was a residual category which they measured using both cross-sectional and dynamic approaches. At any one point in time, they estimated that between 16 and 23% of 16-17 year-olds in South Glamorgan fell into the Status Zero category. Istance and colleagues recognised that it would be misleading to regard Status Zero as a homogenous group given that the profiles of members varied significantly and while for some membership was fleeting, others spent long periods of time outside education and the labour market.

Following the work of Istance and colleagues in South Wales, a study of Status Zero was undertaken in Northern Ireland. Based on secondary analysis of official statistics, as well as a follow-up survey of a cohort of school-leavers drawn from Careers Office records, they also used a static and dynamic approach to the quantification of Status Zero. Analysis of official statistics showed that at any one time around 4-6% of sixteen year-olds can be classed as Status Zero. Cohort data showed a small increase in the size of Status Zero over a two year period and highlighted large inflows each year in June and July and large outflows in August and September. The data also showed that it was comparatively rare for young people to encounter multiple spells of Status Zero, but that around a third of those who entered Status Zero remained in that status for a period of six months or more. As a proportion of the cohort, 8% of young people were long-term Status Zero.

Partly for political reasons and partly to clarify a concept whose meaning was not immediately clear, later researchers began to use the term NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training) in place of Status Zero: a term that draws attention to the heterogeneous nature of the category and avoids the negative connotations of a term that highlights lack of status.

In an analysis of NEET in Scotland using earlier SSLS cohorts, Croxford and Raffe showed that, during the three years following the end of compulsory schooling, the numbers of young people who were NEET varied between 5% and 16%. The researchers acknowledged that due to sample bias and under-reporting of unemployment in retrospective surveys these estimates were likely to understate the proportion who were NEET. Over the three post-school years studied, 31% were classified as NEET on at least one of the six time points at which information was collected. 4 In Croxford and Raffe's analysis, the proportion of young people who were NEET was relatively low in the year after the end of post-compulsory schooling (between 3% and 11% for the cohorts studied) but had increased by the end of the second post-compulsory year. The skew towards the older end of the age group is a consequence of high levels of post-compulsory educational retention.

Croxford and Raffe made a distinction between what they referred to as the 'broad' and 'narrow' definitions of NEET. The broad definition encompasses two sub-groups; those taking a long holiday, doing voluntary work or working part-time (the more advantaged group) and those who were unemployed, sick or disabled or looking after children or family. Using the narrow definition, the proportion who had been NEET at one point in time ranged from 4% to 12% while one in five (20%) had been NEET at some point in time.

While Croxford and Raffe's study represents the best attempt to quantify NEET in Scotland, Bynner and Parsons used the 1970 British Birth Cohort to look at the prevalence of NEET in the UK and to analyse the characteristics of young people who were NEET between the ages of 16 and 18. For Bynner and Parsons, NEET is a dynamic concept and because the prime interest in NEET relates to a need to identify patterns of disengagement, they used a definition that required those classified as NEET to have been outside of education, employment and training for at least six months between the ages of 16 and 18. As such, it is not comparable to the definition used by Croxford and Raffe but is similar to one of the NEET typologies highlighted by Armstrong and colleagues in Northern Ireland.

Bynner and Parsons tested several ways of classifying NEET, including one that defined part-time workers as employed and a second that (like Croxford and Raffe) classified part-time workers as unemployed. The researchers opted for the former version in which no distinction was made between full and part-time employment for the classification of NEET. Using this classification, 7% of men and 14% of women were defined as NEET.

7.2.1 Prevalence of NEET in the SLSS

The number of young people responding to the current SSLS who can be categorised as NEET is obviously dependent on the way in which the concept is defined and the questions that are used to derive the variable. Using the question on main current activity (What are you doing now?) and defining NEET as those responding that they were out of work and looking for a job, looking after children or family members, on unpaid holiday or travelling, sick or disabled, doing voluntary work or engaged in another, unspecified, activity, 10% of males and 9% of females were defined as NEET (unweighted n=363). The other variable that can be used to determine NEET is a filter question that asks directly whether respondents were in education, employment or training (Are you currently in employment, at school or doing any other education or training?). This question provides a slightly higher estimate of NEET (12% of males and 10% of females (unweighted n=466)). In this chapter the static definition of NEET refers to the former definition, based in main activity. With part-time working frequently being combined with other activities such as education, part-time workers are not defined as NEET.

The majority of young people defined as NEET were out of work and looking for a job (conforming to the ILO definition of unemployment where respondents had been actively searching and available during the last week) (Table 7-44). Unemployment accounted for the activities of more than eight in ten males and six in ten females who were NEET. Almost one in five females, but virtually no males, who were NEET were caring for children or family and relatively small proportions of both genders were on unpaid holiday or taking a 'gap' year. Very few young people were undertaking voluntary work as a main activity, but 5% of females and 2% of male NEETs were sick or disabled. A significant number were engaged in other, unspecified, activities.

Table 7-4 Disaggregation of NEET based on current status

Note *=<0.5%

Estimates of NEET can also be derived from the diary question in which respondents were asked retrospectively for details of main status on a monthly basis between July 2002 and October 2003. Figure 7.1 maps changes in the proportion of young people who were NEET across the time period covered (out of work and looking for a job, looking after home or family, on holiday or travelling or doing something else). The increase in NEET during summer vacations highlights one of the inadequacies 'snapshot' definitions where those who are temporarily between statuses can be classified as NEET. Using the diary, 26% were NEET in July 2002 and 27% NEET in July 2003, yet during the months September to May the proportion who are NEET ranges from 4% to 9%.

Figure 7-1 Monthly status changes between July 2002 and October 2002

The diary can also be used to quantify the numbers of young people who were NEET at any time during the 16 month period that was covered. With information on more time periods than existed in the earlier cohorts studies (monthly as compared to biennially) but collected over a shorter time period (16 months as compared to three years), the figures are not comparable to those presented by Croxford and Raffe. Using the diary we find that 36% of males and females were NEET in at least one of the 16 months.

An alternative and powerful conceptualisation of NEET which attempts to capture disengagement is one which measures long-term experience of NEET. This is a variant on the model used by Bynner and Parsons (which they based on a total of six months or more NEET in a period of two years) and is made possible through the inclusion of the monthly diary question. Our model is based on six or more months continuous experience of NEET. This period of time (which is used as the qualifying period for the New Deal for Young People) suggests that a young person may be facing difficulties. Using this model, 8% of males and 6% of females qualify as NEET (unweighted n=285).

The estimates of NEET in the SLSS using the different definitions described above are summarised below.

Table 7-5 Estimates of NEET based on different definitions (%)

Those who were currently NEET were asked about the factors that were associated with their non-participation in education, employment or training (Figure 7-2). The main reasons given related to a perceived lack of suitable opportunities or to qualification deficits. More than half of the males (56%) and more than four in ten females (45%) said that they had not managed to find a suitable job or course, while slightly fewer said that they had not decided on the sort of job or course they wanted to do or that they did not think there were any decent jobs or courses available where they lived. Nearly four in ten thought that they needed to enhance their education or skills in order to get a job, education or training place. Young people were also constrained by a variety of personal and circumstantial issues, from family and housing problems, to health and lack of transport. Personal and circumstantial issues posed a greater constraint on females. Relatively few young people were taking a break from study.

Figure 7-2 Reasons for being NEET

Unweighted n=363

7.3 Characteristics of NEET

Having investigated the different ways in which NEET can be classified using the SLSS, it is worth exploring the characteristics of those defined as NEET within the different models. To be of use in policy terms, it is important that the classification used captures vulnerable young people who can be targeted for intervention. To highlight the characteristics of young people classified as NEET using different definitions, we provide a brief summary of those who have never been NEET, those NEET at the time of the survey (NEET now) and those who experienced NEET for a continuous period of six months or more.

Figure 7-3 shows clearly that those who had never experienced NEET had very different characteristics from those who were NEET at the time of the survey or who had been NEET continuously for six months or more. Those who had never experienced NEET had a much more positive educational experience: they were much less likely to have been regular truants or to have been suspended or expelled and were much more likely to have obtained five or more Standard Grades at grades 1-2. Those who lacked experience of NEET also had more advantaged family backgrounds; their parents were more likely to have degrees, to work in professional and managerial occupations and less likely to be unemployed. Their parents were also more likely to own their own home, although were as likely as those who had experienced NEET continuously for six or more months to reside in a SIP. Differences between those who had experienced NEET for six or months continuously and those who were NEET at the time of the survey were minimal. We suggest that in the autumn there are higher proportions of long-term NEET within the category than at many other times of the year (those who were NEET at the time of the survey will have failed to secure entrance to education during the usual September intake and may have been passed over in the similarly timed recruitment round for traineeships). As such, static definitions of NEET will encompass different groups of young people depending on the time of year in which information is collected.

Figure 7-3 Characteristcs of NEET

Unweighted n - 6 months NEET=265, NEET now=363, Never NEET=3324

Despite significant differences in the characteristics of the NEET and non-NEET groups, they were very similar in terms of their future perspectives. NEET and non-NEET young people, as well as long-term and 'snap-shot' NEET had similar orientations to future participation in education and the labour market. The vast majority felt that a career or profession was important to them, that they wanted to work throughout their adult lives and that they wished to go on learning new things throughout their adult lives. Most had a clear idea about the career they wanted in the future (Figure 7.4). Where differences existed, they tended to be between those who had never experiences NEET and the two other NEET groups. Here the non-NEETs were less likely to say that they would just wait and see where they ended up in the future, to say that they would not mind not enjoying their job if it paid the bills and were much more likely to want to go to university and get a degree. Those who had experienced NEET were more likely to have a desire to run their own business.

Figure 7-4 Future perspectives of NEET and Non-NEET

Unweighted n 6 months NEET=265, NEET now=363, Never NEET=3324

7.4 Turbulent beginnings

For some, being NEET signifies a turbulent start to a career while for others it is a short-term situation encountered between leaving education and entering training or relatively secure sectors of employment. Many of those who were NEET for six months continuously can be seen as having a difficult start, although the long-term NEET also includes some young people who were having a 'gap year' or who had withdrawn from the labour market to look after children. In this section we focus on those who encountered a period of unemployment lasting at least three months immediately after leaving education and look at the extent to which they managed to overcome these early difficulties. We also look at the association between various disadvantages and early career dissatisfaction.

Focusing on those who experienced a period of unemployment immediately after leaving education, we look at the extent to which they were unemployed at the time of the survey or, conversely, were in employment, education or training. Overall, the sample was evenly divided between those who remained unemployed and those who were in employment, education or training (Figure 7-5). However, the experiences of males and females were quite different. The majority of males had left unemployment and were in employment, education or training while the majority of females remained unemployed. Those who were disadvantaged in some way, especially those who were affected by three categories of disadvantage, were less likely to make exists from unemployment over the period. Although there appears to be a particularly strong relationship between parental unemployment and school suspension and expulsion and a tendency to remain unemployed, here cell sizes are too small to make reliable statements (less than 25 cases). However, in terms of educational attainment there was an association between regular truancy and low attainments and a failure to escape unemployment as well as a link between continued unemployment and a lack of career direction. There was no association between social class or and continued unemployment and those living in a SIP were more likely to have moved into employment, education and training than to have remained unemployed (perhaps a reflection of the concentration of interventions in these areas).

Figure 7-5 Current status of young people who have encountered a three-month period of unemployment

Note: *-= small cell sizes of less than 25.

Although NEET and unemployment are often central to debates on labour market disadvantage, young people can experience a turbulent beginning to their careers while seemingly making a straightforward progression through education or into a job or training programme. In particular, young people may continue with their education without wishing to do so as a result of a perceived lack of alternatives or, having left school, may enter an unwanted job. Research has shown that a lack of commitment to a particular route is frequently associated with subsequent unemployment or re-training. Here young people were defined as having entered S5 for negative reasons if they said that one of the reasons they started the school year was that there were no jobs, Modern Apprenticeships or Skillseekers places available that they wanted, or that they stayed as they were too young to claim benefits. Using this definition, 19% of males and 14% of females can be seen as entering S5 for negative reasons. Those who said that they would leave their current job if they could get a better one or who said that the main reason that they remained in their job was due to the money are defined as reluctant workers. Around 16% of males and 12% of females were defined as reluctant workers.

Figure 7-6 Disadvantage and early career dissatisfaction

Young people with a range of disadvantaged were over-represented among the reluctant students and reluctant workers (Figure 7-6). In particular, a high proportion of those with three categories of disadvantage, with no Standard Grades at level 1 and 2, living in SIP areas with parents in the lowest social class and those who lacked career direction were reluctant students. A similar range of factors were associated with being a reluctant worker but in addition regular truancy and suspension or expulsion were strongly associated with reluctant job tenure suggesting that those who had an unhappy relationship with the school also got off to a bad start in the world of work.

7.5 Precarious jobs

In discussing disadvantage, it is important not to overlook those young people who are employed in insecure jobs or in types of work that are not equipping them with transferable skills or in jobs paying low wages; these might be described as 'precarious jobs'. These young people frequently find it difficult to establish stable careers. Around one in four young people (28% of males and 26% of females in employment) had jobs with temporary contracts although those who were disadvantaged were no more likely to occupy such jobs (table not shown) and it is important to recognise that in some types of work initial temporary status is part of the career structure.

While the majority of young workers were receiving formal training leading to a recognised qualification (69% of males and 53% of females), a small minority were receiving no training whatsoever. Unsurprisingly, those receiving no training tended to be in jobs not involving Skillseekers.

Table 7-6 Young workers receiving no training, by type of job held (%)

Low wages provide another indicator of precarity. Although there is currently no minimum wage rate for 17 year-olds, the Government has recently accepted the need to set a minimum wage of £3 per hour to prevent the exploitation of young people. This will be implemented from October 2004. The need for such legislation is apparent from the wage rates received by respondents. More than four in ten received less than the new minimum wage for young people and a further one in four received more than £3, but less than the current minimum rate for 18 year-olds (£3.80).

Table 7-7 Young workers' wage rates (%)

7.6 Key points

• This chapter has focused on those young people who are in some way disadvantaged. We identified those young people who were disadvantaged by family circumstances, educational experiences and outcomes and career management skills and highlighted the links between different types of disadvantage.
• After reviewing the ways in which NEET has been operationalised, we stressed the limits to the usefulness of the concept and, in particular, argued that the static variant was of limited use due to temporal constraints. In this context the move to a monthly status diary in the SSLS provides the opportunity for more sophisticated analyses of NEET.
• If the intention is to identify young people who will benefit from interventions, then in many ways it is better to focus on long-term unemployment rather than the more diverse concept of NEET. Our focus on the dynamics of transitions showed that young women who were out of work for three months or more, as well as those who suffered from multiple disadvantages, were least likely to move into education, employment or training.
• Finally, we argued that those in jobs where training was not provided and those paid extremely low wages should also be regarded as at risk.