Scottish Economic Statistics 2004

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Scottish Economic Statistics 2004

Preface

Scottish Economic Statistics

The Executive, many Parliamentarians and commentators have continued to stress the importance of robust economic statistics in monitoring economic progress and in underpinning economic policy decisions and development. Scottish Economic Statistics seeks to maximise the accessibility of statistical information on the Scottish economy, 1 its key objectives being to present the primary economic data for Scotland, and to share some of the thinking that surrounds the preparation of these data. Its sister publication, the bi-annual Scottish Economic Report presents a wider review of the progress and prospects for the Scottish Economy, together with analysis of the broader context in which the Scottish economy is set.

As with previous editions, Scottish Economic Statistics 2004 is split into two parts:

Part A - Articles. This section provides a variety of articles on developments in statistics on the Scottish economy. In summary, this year's articles are:

  • Effects of the introduction of chainlinking methodology on the Scottish quarterly GDP index. This article describes the effects of chainlinking on GDP, explaining some of the issues relating to industry weights.
  • Development of a Tourism Satellite Account for Scotland. An update on progress measuring tourism's contribution to the economy. New TSA data are presented, with an explanation of the methodology used to derive them.
  • Guide to Income Statistics for Scotland. This article provides a summary guide to the main sources and definitions of income statistics in Scotland.
  • Measuring Labour Market Dynamics. This article outlines some analyses of changes within the labour market in Scotland.
  • Analysis of firm closure and survival. This article provides an insight into patterns of business survival in Scotland.

Part B - Tables and Commentary. This section is organised into six chapters, each with a short introductory text followed by tables. While sub-Scotland data have been kept within the topic chapters to which they relate, a new list of sub-Scotland tables in the contents should enable readers to find these more easily.

  • Economic Accounts: summary macro-economic indicators;
  • Corporate Sector: businesses in Scotland, Regional Selective Assistance, knowledge economy;
  • Industry Sectors: primary industries, manufacturing, energy, construction, services and tourism;
  • Labour Market: information on demographics, employment, earnings, unemployment, training;
  • Household Sector: income and expenditure of Scottish households;
  • Public Sector: income and expenditure, public sector employment.

Changes to this edition

As part of a rolling programme, and in recognition of the fact that Scottish Economic Statistics can not be expanded indefinitely, the content of this edition varies to a small degree from earlier editions. Where tables are no longer included, it is likely that the information is still available, either from the Scottish Executive website via www.scotland.gov.uk/statistics or on request. New tables this year include those on exports, creative industries and young people not in education or training.

Current priority issues in Economic Statistics

There have been two major reviews undertaken at the UK level within the last year that will have an impact on the economic statistics that we produce in future. The final report of the Allsopp Review of Statistics for Economic Policymaking was published in March 2004 2, and the Atkinson Review on the Measurement of Government Output and Productivity for the National Accounts is currently ongoing, with the final report due in January 2005.

The Allsopp report made several recommendations relating to the importance of improving regional economic statistics throughout the UK. While ONS is responsible for implementing these recommendations, the Scottish Executive will be working closely with them on any developments to ensure that we continue to improve the range and quality of information available for Scotland.

The Public Sector accounts for around 20 per cent of the Scottish economy, and it is therefore crucial that we measure its contribution in terms of Value Added as accurately as possible. However it is a complex sector to measure. The Atkinson Review seeks to advance methodology for quantifying UK Government outputs in a way that captures the quality of these outputs and their value to society overall, and also to accurately measure inputs so that a measure of productivity can be derived. (More information on the review can be found in Box 6.1.) The Scottish Executive is contributing to the review process, particularly with regard to indicators relating to devolved areas of responsibility. ONS do not currently intend to produce sub-UK estimates, but we will work closely with colleagues there to determine how the emerging methodology can be applied to the Scottish situation.

The Development of Economic Statistics in Scotland

Previous editions of Scottish Economic Statistics contained details of the plans for development of statistics within the annual Scottish Economic Statistics Programme. This has not been included in SES 2004, but can be found on the Scottish Executive website at www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/scotstats/commitees/economy/meetings/sescg632003.pdf

The Scottish Economic Statistics Consultative Group (SESCG) - which was established in 2001 to advise us on the priorities for, and approach to, the development of economic statistics - has continued to meet on a six monthly basis as part of the SCOTSTAT framework. The Group meets to advise on both the technical questions involved in enhancing our statistical knowledge and on where our efforts might be most appropriately directed.

Recent developments

In the course of 2003-2004, there have been several important developments in enhancing economic statistics in Scotland, including:

  • chain-linked GDP: chain-linked estimates of Scottish quarterly GDP were introduced in February 2004. This major change in methodology provides a more accurate and responsive measure of the Scottish economy than the previous fixed-base approach;
  • Labour Force Survey boost for Scotland: the increased sample for Scotland was implemented in the field during the year. When the results are available this will greatly improve the quality of sub-Scotland estimates of labour market indicators;
  • Scotland's Global Connections Survey: the Scottish Executive carried out this large survey of businesses for the first time, producing an estimate of Scottish exports from all sectors for 2002;
  • Manufactured exports: after being suspended for 2 quarters, the manufactured exports series was re-launched as a constant price index, thus providing a short term quarterly indicator to complement the annual value estimates;
  • Annual Business Inquiry: new partnership procedures for working with ONS were set up, to produce one consistent set of Scottish estimates from the ABI. This has resulted in improved quality and timeliness of the Scottish results.

Priority developments for 2004-05

There is a wide range of areas in which enhancements are being made, but the priorities that have been identified for the coming year are:

  • Atkinson Review. Considering the implications of the Atkinson Review on measuring public sector output and productivity in Scotland;
  • Regional Accounts. Working with ONS to drive forward the recommendations of the Allsopp review;
  • Boosted survey results. Assessing and reporting on the initial results derived from the first sets of boosted data for Scotland from the Labour Force Survey and Family Resources Survey;
  • Income Statistics. Taking forward the key priorities identified at the Income Statistics seminar in October 2003;
  • Tourism index. An index of tourism industry activity will be produced on a quarterly basis from the end of 2004, to inform the monitoring of tourism growth;
  • Macro-economic statistics. Continuing the review of the range of economic statistics that are currently produced for Scotland and working to improve and streamline these by more linking of data and systems.

Acknowledgements

Finally, I would acknowledge the major contribution made to the preparation and compilation of this report by Catriona Hayes in the Office of the Chief Economic Adviser. In addition to those named authors in Part A of this edition, I would also acknowledge the contribution of the statistical staff in the Enterprise, Transport and Lifelong Learning Department, the Environment and Rural Affairs Department, and Finance and Central Services Dept., together with the continuing contributions and advice from officials in other UK Government Departments, including, most notably, the Office for National Statistics, the Department for Education and Skills and the Department for Work and Pensions.

DR ANDREW W GOUDIE
Chief Economic Adviser

October 2004

Page updated: Friday, March 31, 2006